System Dynamics Summer School 2018, Advanced Track

Lecturers of the Advanced Track
Erik Pruyt Delft University of Technology day 1, 2, 3
Yaman Barlas Boğaziçi University day 3
Assistants
Stefan Wigman day 1, 2, 3
Mikhail Sirenko day 1, 2, 3
Ammar Faiq day 1, 2, 3
Shajeeshan Lingeswaran day 1, 2, 3
Andreas Yunus day 1, 2, 3
Mert Edali day 3
Feyyaz Senturk day 3
Erin Barthelomew pre summer school
contribution

 

Friday, 3 August 2018, 9:00 am, [Erik Pruyt + Assistants] 
VRII Industrial Engineering Advanced SD Model Building 

1.           Overall goals and approach

2.           Overview and purpose of the day
3.           Entry test & reflection on goals
4.           Essence and State of the art of SD modelling and simulation
5.           Main ongoing evolution in systems modelling and simulation
6.           Before getting started: on paradigmatic and methodological assumptions and choices
7.           Advanced model building I: from Molecules over Building Blocks to Models-of-Models
               a.           Hands-on practice
8.           Advanced model building II: From non-operational modelling over operational modelling to theory-data rich modelling
               a.           Hands-on practice: modelling the economy and other complex systems
9.           Advanced model building III: Dealing with heterogeneity in SD (profiles, within-cohort distributions, agents)
10.         Advanced SD specification: Data functions, allocation, generalized functions
               a.           Hands-on practice
11.         Advanced SD specification: subscripting and subscripted data
               a.           Hands-on practice
12.         Short introduction to Python: scripting, data handling, simulation, analysis, visualization  
               a.           Data preparation using python and excel [assistants]
               b.           Illustration: distance calculations [assistants]

Saturday, 4. August, 9:00 am, [Erik Pruyt + assistants]
VRII Industrial Engineering Entity-based / Geo-spatial / Multi-scale modelling 

1.           Overview and purpose of the day

2.           Introduction: World modelling, from World01 to Multi-scale World-Country Models
3.           Demo: energy transitions, geopolitics, migration, cities,…
4.           Overview of approaches: the Multi-Model approach, the Subscript Mapping approach, the Entity-Based approach, the Model-of-Models approach
               a.           Hands-on practice: Subscript mapping in Vensim
               b.           Hands-on practice: pySD, Ventity, AnySim
5.           Advanced model building IV: including networks, artificial intelligence, etc.
6.           Advanced model building V: Advanced geo-spatial / multi-scale modelling in Vensim – on distance, adjacency, comparative advantages, and prices
               a.           Hands-on practice: migration, trade, etc.
7.           Purpose, Communication, Impact:
               a.           Hearts and minds: Serious Gaming, Lego,…
               b.           The eye: beyond behaviour-over-time graphs, geo-spatial visualization and animation
8.           MAPMODELVIZ
               a.           Demo and hands-on practice

Sunday, 5. August 2018, 9:00 am, [Erik Pruyt (morning) + Yaman Barlas (afternoon) + Assistants]
VRII Industrial Engineering Simulation, Model Analysis, Output Analysis, and Policy Analysis

MORNING: ERIK PRUYT & ASSISTANTS
1.           Overview and purpose of the day

2.           Sampling approaches: LHS, BSS,…
3.           Simulation approaches: within SD program, pySD, venPy, runner functions, EMAwb
4.           Model analysis approaches
5.           Model fitting and calibration
6.           Concise overview of model output analysis methods
7.           Overview of Policy analysis approaches
8.           Uncertainty analysis, Scenario analysis / Scenario discovery + Exemplar selection
               Demo and hands-on practice with the EMA workbench

AFTERNOON: YAMAN BARLAS + ASSISTANTS
9.        Model credibility, testing and our related tools  and software (with demos)                             
           a.        pattern classification (ISTS, BATS)
           b.        automated parameter calibration (BATS)
           c.        Output Behavior Validity (BTSII, BATS)
10.         Exit test: …test to see what you learned…