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1999 Proceedings – Wellington, New Zealand

The 17th International Conference

of the System Dynamics Society

and the 5th Australian & New Zealand Systems Conference

July 20 – 23, 1999 — Wellington, New Zealand

Conference Chair: Bob Cavana

Local Host: Victoria University of Wellington’s Graduate School of Business & Government Management

1997 Proceedings – Istanbul, Turkey

The 15th International Conference

of the System Dynamics Society

1997 – Istanbul, Turkey

Systems Approach to Learning and Education into the 21st Century

Host:  Department of Industrial Engineering 
Bogaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey

The following papers were presented at the conference in parallel and plenary sessions. The original printed proceedings, edited by Yaman Barlas, Vedat G. Diker and Seckin Polat were printed in hardcopy and distributed at the conference. Below please find the Paper Index for these proceedings, including a link to the paper when available. Papers are listed alphabetically by the last name of the first author. To find a paper by an author who is not the first author, simply search on the author’s name. Available papers are Acrobat (.pdf) files and can be read using Acrobat Reader available from adobe.com.

PAPER INDEX – listed alphabetically by first author:

Ahmed, Umar Imrana   A Process for Designing and Modeling with Components
Aksoy, Yasemin with Lisa Ferguson   Experiences with the Beer Game
Alpaslan, A. K. with M. Sayar, M. C. Demirel and A. R. Atilgan   Local Forecasting of Chaotic Time Series
Amend, James F.   Systems Thinking, Professional Education and Rational Translations in Curriculum
Andersen, David F. with Deborah Lines Andersen, Aldo Zagonel and George P. Richardson   An Approach to Teaching Systems Thinking for Public Sector Audiences
Andersen, Deborah L. with Micheal Radzicki, Robert L. Spencer and Scott Trees   The Dynamics of The Field of System Dynamics
Andria, Domingo   Dynamics Affecting Float Management: Governing the Firm’s Liquidity Position
Andria, Domingo with Jose Di Mase and Allessandro Lino  Stock Broker Trading: A System Dynamics  Based Learning Environment (SDBILE)
Arranz, M. R. with J. J. Garcillan, M.P. Perez, M. D. Soto   A Dynamical Study of Public University Education in Spain
Arranz, M. R. with J. J. Garcillan, M.P. Perez, M. D. Soto   An Analysis on Agricultural Income Exceptions
Atay, Fatichan M.   Stability, Feedback, and delays 
Atci, Baransel with Kadir Varoglu   Systems Thinking and an Application as Academic Curriculum of Systems Engineering: The Case of Turkish Military Academy (TMA)
Atci, Baransel with Guner Gursoy   Improving Decision Making Talent in a New Learning Environment with Interactive Simulation: A Case Study in Turkish Army Academy
Azevedo-Carns, Diana   Enhancing Generative Task Performance in Group Model-Building Efforts
Azevedo-Carns, Diana   The Potential of System Dynamics Modeling as a Cognitive Tool
Bajgoric, Nijaz   Virtual Classroom Support Systems: A Systemic View
Bala, B. K.   Computer Modelling of Energy and Environment: The Case of Bangladesh
Barlas, Yaman with Ekrem Dunman, Korkut Cirak and Gulcin Uzunosmanoglu   System Dynamics Approach to Problem Solving in an Insurance Company
Barlas, Yaman with Huseyin Topaloglu and Serkin Yýlankaya   A Behavior Validity Testing Sofware (BTS)
Barron, Antonio   Spanish Cable TV Market Diffusion Model: Profitability Analysis of Competitive Telecommunications Businesses
Bianchi, Carmine   Dynamic Modeling for Efficient Consumer Response
Bianchi, Carmine with Fabrizio Virdone  Re-engineering Manufacturing Processes in a Telecommunicatio Company. A System Dynamic Approach
Bianchi, Carmine with Mollona Edoardo A Behavioral Model Of Growth and Net Working Capital Management in a Small Enterprise
Bucker, Ralf with Andre Nietz   The German SD-Fourm On Internet
Campbell, Deborah with Adolfo Crespo-Marquez  Improving Business Performance By Releasing Human Potential
Collen, Arne with Cecilia Tagliaferri   Knowledge, Ethics, Quality, And Value In Human Organizations: A System Dynamics Approach
Crespo-Marquez, Adolfo with Rafael Ruiz-Usano, Gloria Elena Pena-Zapata and Javier Aracil    System Dynamics Production Models. A Qualitative Analysis
Dangerfield, Brian with Carole Roberts   The Aids Incubation Time Distribution: An Analysis Using Optimized System Dynamics Model
Davidsen, Pal with Michael Spector     Cognitive Complexity in System Dynamics Based Learning Environment
Davis, Andrew    The Role of SD in Changing The Performance Metrics In the Private Sector
De Kok with H. G. Wind, A. C. Coffa, W .L. T. van Densen and L. Pet-Soede  Fuzzy Logic as a Method for the Application of Qualitative Concepts in a Quantitative System Framework
Dill, Michael   Capital Investment Cycles: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach to Social Theory Development
DiStefano, Julia M.   Credibility, Communication, and Conundrums: Facing the Realities of The Scientific Endeavor and the Limits of Knowledge
Doyle, James K.   The Cognitive Psychology of Systems Thinking: An Agenda for Collaborative Research
Doyle, James K. with David N. Ford   Mental Models Concepts for System Dynamics Research
Duffin, Murray with Michel Karsky   Maximizing Service or Volume? A System Dynamics Approach
Duman, Ekrem with Emre Balýbek, Aykut Fýrat and Yaman Barlas    A Dynamic Feedback Model for Strategic Management of an Insurance Company
Dyner, Isaac with Ricardo Smith and Carlos Jamie Franco and Santiago Montoya   An SD Model to Support Strategic Bidding in the Columbian Electricity Market
Edwards, Derek J. with Allan D. Pengelly   Using System Dynamics to Explore and Derive Self-adaptive Techniques for Information Systems
Els, Sharon   Better Results Through Better Communication Techniques in Consulting
Ercyl, Yavuz with Ugur Zel and A. Kadit Varoglu   Team Based Constructive Learning Model
Erkut, Gulden   The Use of Systems Thinking and System Dynamics in Urban Planning and Education
Ewaldt, Joern W. with Thomas Harring   Effects of “Leapfrogging Behavior” in Innovative Markets on the Profit Situation of the Company – A Theoretical and Empirical Simulation Analysis
Faber, Jan   System Dynamics: A Paradigm For Organizational Learning?
Ferguson Amores, Maria C. with Jose A. D. Machuca and Miguel A. D. Machuca   A Model for the Sector Jerez-Xeres-Sherry and Manzanilla de Sanlucar de Barrameda
Ferneau, Philip   Using Systems Thinking in the “Balanced Scorecard” Method Of Managing Corporate Performance
Fisher, Diana with Ron Zaraza   Seamless Integration of System Dynamics into High School Mathematics: Algebra, Calculus, Modeling Courses
Ford, Andrew   From the Snake River to the Idagon Management Flight Simulators and Water Resource Planning
Ford, David N. with John D. Sterman   Expert Knowledge Elicitation to Improve Mental and Formal Models
Forest, Tom L.  Byzantine, Bulgarian, and Ottoman: The Dynamics of Empire at the Crossroads of Asia and Europe
Forest, Tom L.  Sustaining Life: The Origin, Diversity and Extinction of Species
Gary, Shayne   Dynamics of Diversification: Developing and Testing Resource-based Theories of Diversification
Goldsmith, Hugh with Jon Warwick   Teaching Expectations Formation Processes Using System Dynamics
Grcic, Branko with Ante Munitic   Model of Dynamic Multicriterial Evaluation and Selection-Modes
Größler, Andreas   As Time Goes By- Self- Proceeding Management Simulations
Größler, Andreas   Giving the Black Box a Lid- Providing Transparency in Management Simulations
Grossmann, Martin   The Dynamics of Value Creation in Biopharmaceutical Research and Development
Gursel, A. Gizem with Yavuz Ercil   Non-Linear Approach To Learning Process In Organizations: Chaos Theory
Hahn, Heidi with Philip Kunsberg   Systems Thinking for Manufacturing; Distributed, Multi-Disciplinary Simulations For Graduate Education
Haslett, Tim   The Dynamics of Garbage Collection: A System Dynamics Case Study on Privatization

Heinbokel, John with Jeffery Potash   Developing System Dynamics Skills to Support A Content Based Curriculum
Honggang, Xu with Li Lanhai   The Influence of Rising Cost on the Failure of Chinese Agricultural Collective
Jambeker, Anil B.   Role of Systems Thinking in a Traditional Quality Management Course
Jensen, Kjeld with Ian Gallacher, Syed Hussian and John Mcleod    An Interactive Telecommunications Business Game for Strategic Exploration
Jordao, Luis with Pal Davidsen and Paula Antunes    Multimedia and SD Based Interactive Learning Environments: Increasing Perception of Casual and Structure/Behavior Relationships
Jordao, Luis with Paula Antunes, Rui Santos, Nuno Videira and Sandra Martinho   Hydrological and Ecological-Economic Simulation to Support Watershed Management: Linking SD and Geographical Information Systems
Joy, Timothy with Ron Zaraza   Fundamental Changes In How We Teach: A Narrative About Teaching System Dynamics And the Art of Learning
Kameyama, Saburo with Tomofumi Sumita and Takayuki Toyama   A Study of SD National Model Based on Revised SNA – Conceptual, Institutional and Operational
Karlsson, Reine with Bengt Steen   EPS as a Life Cycle Oriented System Assessment Tool to Facilitate Industrial Learning about Relations to the Environment
Kearney, John with Mark Heffernan and John McLuckie   Fleet Doctor to Airpower 2100 – From Tailored Solution to Learning Environment
Kennedy, Michael   Transforming Spreadsheets into System Dynamics Models: Some Empirical Findings
Kim, Bowon   Dynamic Effects of Autonomous and Induced Learning on Production Technology Development
Kim, Dong-Hwan   LEGO Approach in Teaching System Dynamics
Kim, Dong-Hwan with Jae- Ho Juhn   System Dynamics as a Modeling Platform For Multi-Agent Systems
Klein, Marin   Factors of Success of Technology-Orientated Competitive Strategies
Koenig, Ulli   Simulating Multidimensional Supply Chains-A Vensim based Model
Kubat, Cemalettin with Harun Taskin   Nonlinier Dynamic Behaviors of the Physical Processes: A Comparison Between Crisp and Fuzzy Models
Kurono, Hironori   A Prototype of Modeling as a Continuum of a Translation Process
Kurono, Hironori with Toshiro Shimada, Saburo Kameyama, Tomofumi Sumita and Shin Ichikawa   A Revised Edition of The Beer Game
Kurtz, Stephen     A System Dynamics Approach to Business Interruption Risk
Lanhai, Li with Amararatne Yakupitiyage   Food nutrient dynamics and regulation for fertilized pond aquaculture
Lopez-Ortega, Eugenio    A Dynamic Model for Regional Competitiveness Based on the Regional Innovation System
Machuca, Jose A. with Rafael del Pozo    The Beer Game, with the Possibility of the Use of EDI, Through the Internet
Mahon, Ian    Simulation of a System Collapse: The Case of Easter Island
Maier, Frank H.   Competitiveness in Manufacturing as Influenced by Technology – Some Insights from the Research Project:  World Class Manufacturing
Maksum, Ervan with Tusy Adibroto   Modelling Of System Dynamics On Upper Course of River in Java Island, Indonesia
Mashayekhi, Ali with Marcie Tyre    Dynamics Of Punctuated Organizational Change
Mehl-Madrona, Lewis    Computer Simulation of Patient Flow within an Emergency Department to Plan Room Numbers and Configuration to Optimize Patient waiting Time and Turnaround Time
Mehl-Madrona, Lewis   System Dynamics as an Interactive Patient Educational Tool for Preventing Coronary Artery Disease and Myocardial Infarction
Mena-Nieto, Angel with Adolfo Crespo-Marquez    The Bargaining Processes. Exploring the Complexity Using System Dynamics Modeling
Mildenberger, Udo    “Self-Organization” as an Engine of the Evolution of Interorganizational Networks
Millheim, Keith with Thomas Gabler    Developing a Meaningful Systems Investigative Capability- A Systems Dynamic Process
Milling, Peter M. with Frank H. Maier    On the Effectiveness of Corporate Gaming Environments and Management Simulators
Moizer, Jonathan    System Dynamics Modeling of Occupational Safety: More Suitable for Learning or Policy Making
Mollona, Edoardo    Local Rationality, Resource Accumulation Structures and Emergent Strategic Behavior in Explaining R&D Resource Building and Adaptation
Morecroft, John D. W.   The Rise and Fall of People Express: A Dynamic Resource-Based View
Morecroft John D. W. with Maurice Glucksamn and Edoardo Mollona    Leapfrogging the Compeitition: The Dynamics of Resource Metamorphosis
Morecroft, John D. W. with Panos Ninios and Hendrik Sabert   Cycle Management in Capital Intensive Industries
Morozowski, Maciano with Carlos Florentin    A System Dynamics Based Stategic Planning Model for Hydroelectric Systems
Morozowski, Maciano with Fabiola Silveira    A Simulation Approach To Financial Planning of Electric Utilities in Deregulated Business Environments
Morozowski, Maciano with Fabiola Silveira    Integrated Model for Energy System Planning: A System Dynamics Approach
Moscardini, A. O.   System Methodologies for Future Higher Education in the UK
Muniz, Fernando with Carlos Scheel and Antonio Gonzalez   The Dynamic Modeling as Organizational Change Process Validation Tool
Mutuc, Jose Edgar   Can Top Management Sustain Quality Programs?
Myrtveit, Magne with David Bridgeland   An Architecture for Hosting Management Flight Simulators on the World Wide Web
Nilsson, Bengt with Anders Sixtensson   Reinventing Process Improvement and Change Management Through Systems Thinking and System Dynamics
Ochiai, Shigemi   The Introduction of an Environmental Tax and Forecast Simulation of Change in Industrial Structure
Oliva, Rogelio with Scott Rockart    Dynamics of Multiple Improvement Efforts: The Program Life Cycle Model
Olofsson, Bengt with Dag Caldenfors and Anders Sixtensson    A System Dynamic Approach For Return On Investment Calculations
Packer, David W. with William Glass-Husain    Designing Interactive Multi-User Learning Laboratories
Pala, Ozge with Burak Guneralp and Onur Mergen    Modelling the AIDS Epidemic in the Developing Nations
Paterson, David    Preparedness and Mobilization- The Role of System Dynamics in Managements approach to Resource Allocation
Polat, Seckin   Simulation of Learning: Comparison of Double and Single Loop Learning
Potash, Jeffery P. with John F. Heinbokel    A Self-Paced Approach to Teaching System Dynamics
Qingrui, Xu with Guo Bin and Wang Yi and Lu Yan   EST Innovation Model and Interactive System in China: Waste Waster Reduction Technology as a Case Study
Qu, Weishuang with Gerald O. Barney   China Grain Model: A Tool For Education and Participatory Discussion
Rahman, Shams-ur   Variation Reduction in Product Quality and Organizational Performance: A System Dynamics Approach
Rai, V. K. with B. Mahanty   Multi-Agent Interaction in Software Projects A System Dynamic Approach
Ritchie-Dunham, James   Initiating Management Dialog with a Summary Presentation that Integrates Findings from Multiple SD Analytical Tools
Rodrigues, Alexandre    SYDPIM—A System Dynamics-based Project Management Integrated Methodology
Roos, Egbert   Group Model Building with a Client Using System Dynamics Modeling
Roy, Santanu   Issues Facing Soft Systems Modelling: Structural Modelling in Relation to System Dynamics
Ruiz-Usano, Rafael with Adolfo Crespo-Marquez and Jose Framinian-Torres   Modeling Manufacturing Systems. A Simulation Study
Sancar, Fahriye with Korkut Onaran   Modeling the Dynamics of Informalization in Land Use Controls; Using System Dynamics to Formulate Research Land Use Planning
Savicic, Vlajko with Michael Kennedy   The Transformation of a Power Plant Investment Appraisal Application from a Spreadsheet into a System Dynamics Model
Sedehi, Habib with Carmine Bianchi and Cecilia Tagliaferri   A”pilot” model to introduce System Dynamics in a pharmeceutical company
Schwaninger, Markus    The Dynamics of Environmental Responsibility in Management
Sitompul, Rislima F. with Muhammad Tasrif and Akhamd Taufik   The Transition Process in Modernization and Development Of A Traditional Society In Indonesia
Suksawang, Orasa   Systems Approach to Training Curriculum for Provincial Development Planning in Thailand
Sumita, Tomofumi   A Role of Human Resource in Intellectual Organization
Tignor, Warren W. The Role of Information Technology in a Learning Organization: Case Study and Casual Diagramming
Tu, Yi-Ming with Wang Wei-Young    System Dynamics Modeling Oriented Strategic Information System Planning
Tu, Yi-Ming with Chia-Pen Chen and Ya-Tsai Tseng   Study on Dynamic System Behavior and Comparison of Dominant Loop Analysis Approaches
Týtýz, Týnaz   Inflation, Chronic Inflation and Its Snowball Effect
Ulengin, Fusun with Y. Ilker Topcu and Vedat G. Diker    SUCH- A Dynamic Interactive Simulator for Introducing The Basic Concepts Of Supply Chain Management
Ullah, Qudat with Mohamed M. Seleh and Bahaa E. A. Mohamed   Fish Bank ILE: An Interactive Learning Laboratory to improve understanding of “ The Tragedy of the Commons”:A Common Behavior of Complex System Dynamics
Ulrich, Markus M.    Simulation/ Gaming for Learning about Sustainability and the Environment
Vaid, Rahul with Mukta Joshi   Object Oriented Systems approach to managing education in the 21st century
Varoðlu , Demet with Kadir Varogula    The Impact of The Fifth Discipline On Management Education
Vekstein, Daniel   Continuos Judgmental Models as Building Blocks for System Dynamic Models of Social Systems
Vennix, Jac A.M. with Cecile M. Thijssen and Etienne A.J.A. Rouwette   Group Model Building: A Decision Room Approach
Videira, Nuno with Fabian Szulanski, Paula Antunes, Rui Santos and Luis Jordao   Management of Protected Areas: A Collaborative System Dynamics Interactive Learning Environment
Walsh, James with Kathy Monks    Interunit Linkages and Interunit Learning: The Role of Strategic Human Resource Management in The Multinational Enterprise
Wang, Qifin with Xu Bo and Jia Jiangguo    A Quantitative Model for Infrastructure and Basic Industry and It’s Application to Shanghai Facing 21st Century
Wang, Qifan with Zhanqiang Chen and Minghai Zhou    Open Economy: The Disequilibrium Macro-Model of Exchange Rate and Its Stability
Williams, Ddembe with Michael Kennedy    A viewpoints conceptual framework for improving the organizational information requirements process: a System Dynamics perspective
Winch, Graham with John MacDonald and Steve Sturges    Frameworks and Tools for Computer-Aided Visioning
Wolstenholme, Eric    The Gap Between System Dynamics and Current Managment Practice – Some Messages to Help Reinforce The Value of a Systems Approach to 21st Century Management Practice
Yamaguchi, Kaoru   A System Dynamic Approach to A Chaotic Market Economy
Yang, Jenshou   Give me the right goals, I will be a good dynamic decision maker
Yetis, Nuket with Fevzi Tasci and Erol Inelmen   A Dynamic Simulation Model For Budgeting and Funds Management For Small Scale Firms  In Turkey
Yndestad, Harold   System Dynamics in the Fisheries of Northeast Arctic Cod
Young, Showing H. with Chia Ping Chen, Sy-Feng Wang and Chi Hung Chen   An experiment to Study the Relationship between Decision Scope and Uncontrollable Positive Feedback Loops
Yurtseven, M. Kudret with Nureddin Kirkavek, Haluk Balkan, Ferda C. Cetinkaya and Yavuz Gunalay    In Systems Engineering Management: Proposal for a New Program
Zagonel, Aldo with John Rohrbaugh, David F. Anderson, George Richardson and Tsuey Ping Lee   Group Model Building to Support Welfare Reform in Cortland County
Zaraza, Ron with Tim Joy and Scott Guthrie    The CC-Status Training Materials: A Program for Developing Models and Modelers for the Pre-College Environment
Zaraza, Ron with Diana Fisher    Introducing System Dynamics into the Traditional Secondary Curriculum: The CC-Stadus Project’s Search For Leverage Points

Last edited: LL July 2012

1996 Proceedings – Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

The 14th International Conference

of the System Dynamics Society

1996 – Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

The following papers were presented at the conference in parallel, plenary, and poster sessions. The original printed proceedings, edited by George P. Richardson and John D. Sterman, were printed in hardcopy (Volume 1: A-L and Volume 2: M-Z) and distributed at the conference. Below please find the Paper Index for these proceedings, including a link to the paper when available. Papers are listed alphabetically by the last name of the first author. To find a paper by an author who is not the first author, simply search on the author’s name. Available papers are Acrobat (.pdf) files and can be read using Acrobat Reader available from adobe.com.

PAPER INDEX – listed alphabetically by first author:

Ackere, Ann van with Peter Smith   Analyzing National Health Service Waiting Times
Akkermans, Henk with Jac Vennix   Clients’ Opinions on Group Model-Building: An Exploratory Study
Alanne, Prikka-Matti P. with Anil B. Jambekar   Putting Systems Thinking to Use: A Case Study
Alexander, William   Efficiency In Sustainability – The Efficient Life Styles of Kerala
Alfeld, Louis Edward   Dynamic Simulation of Rural Social and Economic Interaction
Alfeld, Louis Edward with Robert M. Sholtes   The Industrial Base Analysis Model (IBAM)
Anderson, E.G. with N.R. Joglekar   Modeling the Dynamics of Technological Ramp-up Within Firms
Andrade Sosa, Hugo Hernando with Jaime Daniel Mejia Castro, Ricardo Vicente Jaime Vivas and Jose Alberto Pinto Mantilla   Microworlds: A System Dynamics Application in Learning Keynesian Macroeconomics
Andrade Sosa, Hugo Hernando with Alvaro Ramirez Garcia and Jose Daniel Cabrera Cruz   Re-Building Knowledge By Assumption of Complexity with System Dynamics – A Case Example in Polymerization Process Engineering
Antunes, Maria Paula with Rui Santos and Nuno Videira   The Impact of Environmental Policy on a Firm’s Behavior – A System Dynamics Approach
Aronson, Daniel   Walking Through the Minefield: How Systems Thinkers Avoid Fallacies of Perception and Action
Arthur, William B. with Robert L. Eberlein   Sensitivity Simulation
Barlas, Yaman with Vedat G. Diker   Decision Support for Strategic University Management: A Dynamic Interactive Game
Barlas, Yaman with Ayse Aksogan   Product Diversification and Quick Response Order Strategies in Supply Chain Management
Barron, Antonio with Silvio Martinez and Jose Maria Lopez   A Simulation Model for Telecommunications Services Partially Substituting
Barton, John   A Contemporary Masters Program in Systems Thinking and System Dynamics
Barton, John   A Framework for Addressing Contemporary Management Problems
Barton, John with Purnandu Mandel   A Policy Model for a Retail Water Company in Australia
Bave, Eric    Recycling of Building Materials
Bell, Gary A. with J.O. Jenkins   A Proposed Project Management Cost Modeling Taxonomy
Benassi, Mario with Roberto Berchi   Modularization of the Enterprise and System Dynamics Models: An Application to the Explication of Suggestions from the Shops
Benigno, Edwin   A Model of the Rice Postharvest System in the Philippines
Bernstein, Dan S.   Global Change Education: The Use of System Dynamics Concepts for Science and Policy Interface
Bianchi, Carmine with Alfredo Moscardini   Budget Formulation, Unpredictability and the Use of System Dynamics as a Coordinating and Learning Mechanism in Regional Government Management
Bickle, Bruce with Bernard McGarvey   Application of Dynamic modeling to a Solvent Recovery Area at a Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Plant.
Boucher, Adrian   New Approaches to Learning and Teaching: Student-Centred Modelling with Visually-Oriented Simulation Packages
Bridgeland, David with Dorothy Yu and Mitesh Suckak   A Management Flight Simulator for Strategy Communication and Organizational Alignment
Carena, Augusto with Dharma Sri   Mass Learning: An Application of System Dynamics
Calvaleri, Steven A. with James A. Thompson   Assessing the Efficacy of Microworlds for Promoting Systems Thinking
Cloutier, Martin L. with Steven T. Sonka and Randall E. Westgreen   Linking the Film to its Environment: A System Dynamic Approach
Cole, Vera J. with M.K. Hughes   Using System Dynamics to Determine the Return on Investment in Engineering Information Technology
Colemann-Kemmula, Seetha   A Study of the Manpower System of a Shell R&D Laboratory
Coyle, R. G with C.J. Miller   The Strategic Dynmaics of Counter-Insurgency Warfare
Crespo Marquez, Adolfo with Rafael Ruiz Usano, Jose Manuel Framinan Torres and Ricardo Zubiria de Castro   The Pull Control Systems:  A System Dynamics Perspective
de Kok, Jean- Luc with H.G. Wind   Systems Dynamics as a Methodology for Sustainable Coastal- Zone Management
Despotakis, Vassilios K. with Maria Giaoutzi   Spatial Modeling of Urban Dynamics
Deweese, Michael R.   Decision Making in a Small School District: A Case Study Employing Principles of Systems Thinking and iThkink
Diehl, Ernst   Proactive Maintenance and Reactive Repair
Doyle, James K. with Michael J. Radzicki and W. Scott Trees    Measuring the Effects of Systems Thinking Interventions on Mental Models
Drew, Donald R. with Allan D. Chasey, Jesus M. de la Garza and Wonkyu Kim   System Dynamics Model of a State Highway Management System
Drew, Stephen A. with Peter A. Smith   Competitive Advantage Through Knowledge Management: A System Dynamics Approach
Duncan, Richard C.   The Mexican Petroleum ‘Play In Two Acts’: Taking Hold of Oil Productions Data
Dyner, Issac with Derek W. Bunn   Development of a Systems Simulation Platform to Analyze Market Liberalisation and Integrated Energy Conservation In Colombia
Eberlein, Robert L. with James H. Hines   Molecules for Modelers
Elg, Fredrik   An Approach for Understanding Learning and Decision Making in Complex Dynamic Systems
Ford, David N. with J.D. Sterman   Dynamics Modeling of Product Development Processes
Forrester, Nathan B.   A Hard Look at Social Security
Fowler, Alan   Simulation’s Evolving Role in Management
Fukuda, Atsushi with Hironori Suzuki, Takahiro Kojima and Shigeru Koyama   Demand Forecasting System for Suburban Railway Project Using System Dynamics and Geographical Information System
Fukuda, Atsushi with Yoshio Hanzawa and Ryoichi Ebisawa   Traffic Engineering Class for Techincal College Students Using STELLA
Gascon, Fernando   Reputation in Banking and Deposit Insurance: the Dynamics of Browsing and Lending under Regulation
Gary, Shane with Chris Charyk   Using Groupware Technology to Facilitate Team Model Building and Learning
Genta, Peter J. with Neville Sokol   A Microworld of Exploration and Development: Creating a Learning Laboratory for the Oil & Gas Industry
Georgantzas, Nicholas C. with Stephen H. Brovarone   Globalizing High Sulfur Fuel Oil Marketing
Georgantzas, Nicholas C.   Reengineering Business Process Reengineering with System Dynamics
Gricic, Branko with Ante Munitic   System Dynamics Approach to Validation
Groessler, Andreas   Providing Simulation Models on the Internet
Grossman, M.   Designing Strategies to Achieve Sustainable Growth for Biotechnology Companies
Guerra, Juan Hernandez   Studies of a Model of Entertainment Between Economic Cycles
Guthrie, Scott with Diana Fisher   Systems Thinking and Systems Dynamics in the CC-STADUS High School Project
Hall, Roger with M.P. Gupta   Using a Corporate System Model of a Firm to Investigate the Feedback Dynamics Leading to Growth, Decline, and Bankruptcy
Haslett, Tim with Charles Osborne   Local Decision Rules: Complexity or Chaos?
Haslett, Tim   Three Simulation for Teaching Systems Thinking
Hermann, John F. with John L. DeOlden   A Flight Simulator for University Department Planning
Higuchi, Tohru   Parameter Estimation Involved to System Dynamics Model by Multi-Objective Optimization Technique
Hines, James   Modeling the Evolution of Organizations
Hines, James H. with Dewey Johnson   Competitive Dynamics: Context, Model, Outcome, and Ongoing Use
Homer, Jack with Fred Nichols   Enterprise Modeling at ETS: Highways and Biways
Hsiao, Naiyi   Evaluating the Policy of Stratospheric Ozone Protection- a System Dynamic Modeling Approach
Huz, Steven with David F. Andersen, George P. Richardson and Roger Boothroyd   Evaluating Group Model Building in Mental Health Vocational Services
Jambekar, Anil B.   A System View of Design Engineering Capacity: Continuous Improvement Policy Interaction
Jonas, Wolfgang   Systems Thinking in Industrial Design
Jones, Andrew with Elizabeth Krahmer, Rogelio Oliva, Nelson Repenning, Scott Rockart and John Sterman   Comparing Improvement Programs for Product Development and Manufacturing: Results from Field Studies
Jordao, Luis with M.P. Antunes and R.F. Santos   Reactive vs. Proactive Corporate Environment Management: A System Dynamics Learning Environment
Joy, Timothy   Crime and Astonishment
Kallenberg, Robert with Charles H. Fine   Analysis and Business Cycles in the U.S. Machine Tool Industry
Kampmann, Christian E.   Feedback Loop Gains and System Behavior
Karsky, Michel with Stephane Copin and Sonia Pitrach   The Implementation of a Large System Dynamics Model of Human Behavior
Khalil, Yahia F. with Michael Radzicki   The Dynamics of the Zero-Emission Vehicle Industry
Kim, Doa Hoon with Dong-Hwan Kim   How Heuristic are Heuristic Decision Rules in a Dynamic Game?
Kim, Dong- Hwan with Jae-Ho Juhn   Dynamics of Networks: System Dynamics Model for Network Externality and Critical Mass
Koenig, Ulli H.   Use of Simulation in Management and Management Education: Speeding up the Wheel of Learning?
Koerstein, Ralf with Bernd Viehweger   Evaluation of Neutral Networks via Generic Modelling using System Dynamics
Krahmer, Elizabeth M. with Scott Rockart   Carbon Sequestration and Emission Management: A Costal Rican Case Study
Kunsberg, Phillip   An Interactive Simulation of a Manufacturing Enterprise: Prelimimary Observations
Lane, David   Can We Have Confidence in Generic Structures?
Langley, Paul with John Morecroft   Learning from Microworlds Environments: A Summary of the Research Issues
Lao, Hong Mou   Energy Capacity Management for the Industrial Sector of Zhejiang Province in China: A System Dynamics Model
Larsen, Erik R. with Alessandro Lomi   The Dynamics of Organizational Inertia, Survival and Change
Lehmann, Frank   A System View of the Design of Modern Manufacturing Systems
Lopez Paredes, Adolfo with Alfonso Redondo Castan and Ricardo del Olmo Martinez   The Spanish Glass Container Maker. A Model of Strategic Planning in a Firm
Lyneis, James M. with Alexander L. Pugh III   Automated vs. ‘Hand’ Calibration of System Dynamics Models: An Experiment With a Simple Project Model
MacDonald, Roderick H.   Discrete Versus Continuous Formulation: A Case Study Using Coyle’s Aircraft Carrier Survivability Model
Macedo, Julio with Rafael Ruiz Usano   An Intelligent System Dynamics Based controller for Fuzzy Managerial System
Machuca, Jose A. D. with Miguel A. Domingo Carrillo   Transparent- Box Business Simulator verus Black- Box Business Simulators: an Initial Empirical Comparative Study
Madachy, Raymond   Modeling Software Processes with System Dynamics: Current Developments
Madwed, Albert   Systems Thinking for K-12 Teachers: A New Course at the Graduate School of Education and Allied Professions, Fairfield University
Maier, Frank with Juergen Strohhecker   Do Management Flight Simualtors Really Enhance Decision Effectiveness?
Maier, Frank   Substitution Among Successive Product Generations- An Almost Neglected Problem In Innovation Diffusion Models
Maliapen, Mahendran with Ram Ramasehan and M. Quaddus   System Dynamics Approach to Marketing Modeling in the Airline Industry
Mandal, Purnendu with Amrik S. Sohal   Modeling Quality Improvement Processes
Mandal, Purnendu with Amrik S. Sohal   Understanding Long Term Interactions in Fabricated Metal Manufacturing Industry: A Case
Mashayekhi, Ali N.   Oscillation in Preventitive Maintenance Programs
Mayberry, Matt with Kent Hoxsey, Kerry McCracken and Carl Rendell   Using Systems Thinking and Dynamics Simulations to Reengineer Manufacturing Processes at Silicon Graphics
Milling, Peter   A Management Stimulator to Support Group Decision Making in a Corporate Gaming Environment
Moizer, Jonathan D.   Safely Knowledge and its Influence over Accidents in the Workplace
Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad with David F. Andersen   Assessing the System-wide Impacts of Automated Voice Response Customer Service Technologies
Mollona, Eduardo   The Dynamics of Organizational Heuristics and Biases in Corporate Strategy
Moon, Tae Hoon with Deuk Jong Bae, Doa Hoon Kim and Dong Whan Kim   Comparing Strategies for Building Korean Information Infrastructure Using a System Dynamic Model
Morecoft, John   A Behavioral Model of Diversification and Performance in a Mature Industry
Morita, Michiya with Nobuhide Tanaka, Yutaka Takahashi and Toru Higuchi   Linkage Structure and Trade-offs of Competitive Measures
Moxnes, Erling   Crisis Management of a Renewable Resource
Moxnes, Erling   Stochastic Optimization in Policy Space Using Simulation Models
Oliva, Rogelio   Empirical Validation of a Dynamic Hypothesis
Parayno, Phares P.   Poverty-Environment Links in the Philippines
Park, Hun-Joon with Jimwoo Kim, Kuen S. Yi and Kiho Jun   Enhancing the Performance in Dynamic Decision Making: The Adaptive Model Reconstruction Using Feedforward vs. Feedback Decision Strategy
Piatelli, Mauro with Nicola Bianchi and Luca Minna   Note on Conceptual Distance in Simulation using the Polls Model as a Basis for Discussion
Qu, Weishhuang with Gerald O. Barney and Jos Verbeek   RMSM-X in Vensim: Refining the Financial Sector of the Threshold 21 National Development Model
Reichelt, Kimberly S. with James M. Lyneis and Carl G. Bespolka   Calibration Statistics: Selecting a Statistic and Settling a Standard
Repenning, Nelson   Modeling the Failure of Productivity Improvement Programs
Rios, Jose Perez with Markus Schwaninger   Integrative Systems Modeling: Leveraging Complementarities of Qualitative and Quantitative Methodologies
Roberts, James C.   The Stucture of Structural Violence
Rodrigues, Alexandre J.G. with Terry Williams   System Dynamics in Project Management: Assesing the Impacts of Client Behavior in Project Management
Rodrigues, Alexandre J.G. with Terry Williams   System Dynamics in Software Project Management: Towards the Development of a Formal Integrated Framework
Roos, Egbert   System Dynamics Modeling: A Case Study from the Software Product Development
Root, Gus with Grant McGriffin   They will Learn what They See Others Doing
Rothman, Johanna   Applying Systems Thinking to the Issues of Software Product Development
Rouwette, Etienne with Jac Vennix   The Influence of Group Model Building on Policy Intentions
Ruiz Usano, Rafael with Jose Manuel Framinan Torres, Adolfo Crespo Marquez and Ricardo Zubiria de Castro   System Dynamics and Discrete Stimulation in a Constant Work-in-Process System: A Comparative Study
Ruth, Matthias   Exploring Spatio- Temporal Dynamics in Economic Exchange: A Dynamic Modeling Approach
Ryan, Thomas   A Peircian Framework for Using System Dynamics Modeling as an Inquiry System
Sahara, Kanji with Kinya Machida, Nobuyuki Suzuki and A. Uchino   Environmental Model of Atmosphere- from Japan Model to East Asian Companies
Santoni, Marco   A Stimulation Model Behaviour of Innovative Companies
Sedhi, Habib with Carmine Bianchi   A Winery Dynamic Model for “Product Portfolio” Management
Sedhi, Habib   SYDIC- System Dynamics- Italian Chapter
Shafto, Syvia A. with CJ Kalin and Michael G. Shafto   Cognitive and Instructional Issues in System Modeling
Shawwash, Ziad K. with S.O. Dennis Russell   Use of System Dynamics for Managing Water in Jordan
Sitompul, Rislima F. with Muhammad Tasrif   A System Dynamics View of the Rural Community Development in Indonesia
Smith, Andrew with Allen Boorstein   A Systemic Approach to System Dynamics Education: A Status Report
Smith, Ricardo with Santiago Montoya, Carlos Jamie Franco and Issac Dyner   Assessing the Dynamics of Energy Markets Under Liberalisation Process
Smits, Cyprian A. with E.J. Verroen   A System Dynamics Model for Long Term Travel Demand Forecasting and Policy Analysis
Sotaquira, G. Ricardo with Hugo Andrade and Lilia Nayibe Gelvez   Organizational Design with System Dynamics and Radical Change Approach
Sridharan, Sanjeev   Can Vector- Autoregression Methodology Help in an Understanding of the Casual Dynamics of the Unemployment- Crime Relationships?
Stave, Krystyna A.   Redefining Resources: A Systems Perspective on the Watershed Protection Conflict Between New York City and the Catskill Mountain Region
Stefano, Julia M Di   Edutaining, Engaging the Learner, and System Dynamics
Sterman, John D. with Nelson Repenning, Rogelio Oliva, Elizabeth Krahmer, Scott Rockart and Andrew Jones   The Improvement Paradox: Designing Sustainable Quality Improvement Programs
Sterman, John D. with Rebecca Henderson, Eric Beinhocker and Lee I. Newman   A Behavioural Analysis of Learning Curve Strategy
Sturges, Stephen with Graham Winch   Computer Attack: The Role of Modeling in Development an Intergrated Securtiy Policy
Sturtevant, Rochelle   The Effect of Nutrient Recycling on Ecosystem Stability
Suksawang, Orasa   System Dynamics Approach to Managing Community Development
Sunaryo, Prasetyo with Tusy A. Adbroto, Hary Budiarto and Ervan Maksum   Application of Sysytem Dynamics on Watershead Management on Java Island, Indonesia
Sycamore, Douglas   Improving Software Project Management Through System Dynamics Modeling
Tasrif, Muhammad   The Implications of Environmental Consideration in Energy Development to the General Economic Welfare and Development in Indonesia
Thiel, Daniel   Instabilities and Deterministic Chaos In Just-In-Time Production Systems: Comparison between Neutral Networks Stimulation and Continuous Stimulation
Tosteson, Joshua   Systems Dynamics and Earth Systems Science: Bridging the Gaps Between Research and Education
Trees, W. Scott with James K. Doyle and Micheal J. Radizcki   Using Cognitive Styles Typology to Explain Dynamics Decision Making in a Computer Stimulated Environment
Wang, Qifan   A Systems Dynamics Study of the Coordinated Development of Regional Infastructure
Wang, Wanlong with Jerry Fuh and X Yongnian   Dynamic Analysis of Manufacturing Systems
Wile, Kristina with David Smilonich   Using Dynamic Stimulation for Resource Management Policy Design at the Minnesota Department of Transportation
Willey, Phillip C.T. with Amil K. Bajpai   A Systems Dynamic Model of Manufacturing Quality Costs and Benefits
Wolstenholme, Eric   Community Care for the Elderly in the UK
Wyatt, Ray   Strategic Planning Using Neutral Network-based, Delphi, Workshop Software
Xiang, Gang with Liu Linhong   A System Dynamics Model for an Enterprise’s Sustainable Innovation Process
Xu, Qingruil with Jie Han, Bin Guo and Jin Chen   Hi-Tech Impulse: A New Coordinative Development Pattern of Social- Economy- Technology-Education Systems
Yang, Jenshou   Facilitating Learning Through Goal Setting in a Learning Laboratory
Young, Showing H. with Chai Ping Chen   Entrapping Landmine Structure in Microworlds Formed with Uncontrollable Positive Feedback Loops
Young, Showing H. with Shih-Hui Lo   Experiences in Designing Board-type Stimulation Games for Center Satellite Industrial System
Young, Showing H. with Sy-Feng Wang   Measuring the Learning of Systems Thinking: Theory and Method
Yu, Jia-Di with Xin-Yun Zeng   Study on Development Strategies of Regional Water Resources System
Yu, Lijuan   Guided by Learning Organization to Practice a Process Reengineering for an Enterprise Business
Zagonel, Aldo   A Dynamics Model for Analyzing Urban Growth in a Planned City
Zamudio-Ramirez, Pavel with Andrew Spicer, John Sterman, Steve Eppinger and John Ehrenfeld   Economics of Automobile Recycling
Zaraza, Ronald with Diana Fisher   Experiences in Developing Single-Discipline and Cross- Curricular Models for Classroom Use

1995 Proceedings – Tokyo, Japan

The 13th International Conference

of the System Dynamics Society

1995 – Tokyo, Japan

The following papers were presented at the conference in parallel and plenary sessions. The original printed proceedings, edited by Toshiro Shimada and Khalid Saeed, were printed in hardcopy (Volume I: Plenary Program and Volume II: Parallel Program) and distributed at the conference. Below please find the Paper Index for these proceedings, including a link to the paper when available. Papers are listed alphabetically by the last name of the first author. To find a paper by an author who is not the first author, simply search on the author’s name. Available papers are Acrobat (.pdf) files and can be read using Acrobat Reader available from adobe.com.

PAPER INDEX – listed alphabetically by first author:

Volume I: Plenary Programs

Acharya, Surya Raj with Khalid Saeed  A Search for an Operational Environmental Policy Based on the “Limits to Growth” Study

Barney, Gerald O. with Robert Eberlein, Weishuang Qu and P.D. Sharma   The Threshold 21: Sustainable Development Model

Choucri, Nazli with Rebecca Berry  Sustainability and lateral Issues: A Model

Fiddaman, Thomas  Formulation Experiments with a Simple Climate/ Economy Model

Ford, Andrew  System Dynamics and the Sustainable Development of the Electric Power Industry

Ginsberg, Ari with John Morecroft  Systems Thinking and the Case Method

Higa, Teruo  Soft Landing into the Twenty- First Century: The Requirements

Kim, Dong-Hwan with Jae-Ho Jun   Hierarchical Approach in System Dynamics Modeling

Kodama, Fumio  Techno-Paradigm Shift and its Research Methodology

Lane, David   The Folding Star: A Comparative Reframing and the Extension of Validity Concepts in System Dynamics

Milling, Peter M.  Managing and Understanding Technological Innovations

Morita, Michiya with Nobuhide Tanaka, Harunori Mori and Yutaka Takahashi  Communication Network Systems for Competitiveness: The Japanese World Class Manufacturing Case

Myrtveit, Magne  Models Crossing the Boundaries of Tools

Piattelli, M. with R.G. Coyle  On The Modeling of Sea Power: An Extension of the Polis Model in a Competitive Scenario

Radzicki, Michael J. with W. Scott Trees  A System Dynamics Approach to Sustainable Cities

Richardson, George P.   Chaos from Generic Structures: A Cautionary Tale

Richardson, George P.  Problems for the Future of System Dynamics

Saeed, Khalid  The Organization of Learning in System Dynamics Practice

Sterman, John with Nelson Repenning and Fred Kofman  Unanticipated Side Effects of Successful Quality Programs: Exploring a Paradox of Organizational Improvement

Winch, Graham W.  Understanding the Dynamics of Technology Switching in Seeking to Maintain International Competitiveness

Wolstenholme, Eric F.   Systems Thinking, System Dynamics

Zahn, Erich with Jurgen Greschner  Strategic Evalution of Flexible Assembly Systems-Combining Hard and Soft Decision Criteria

Volume II: Parallel Programs

Akkermans, Henk  Quantifying the Soft Issues: A Case Study in the Banking Industry

Aoki, Toshiaki with Hajime Inamura  An Urban Growth Modeling Based On Urban Attraction

Aslam, Javaid with Khalid Saeed  Electricity Conservation in Domestic Sector of Pakistan: A System Dynamics Approach

Bajpai, Anil K. with Phillip C.T. Wiley  Dynamic Model of Purchasing Quality

Banerjee, Souvik with Mohit Junja and Pratap K. J. Mohapatra  IGRASP-A System Dynamics Software Package With Automatic Code Generation Facility

Bianchi, Carmine  An Educational Dynamic Model for Net Working Capital Management in a Trading Wholesale Firm

Bianchi, Carmine with Habib Sedehi  Dynamic Modeling for “Products Portfolio” Management and New Products Launching

Brooke, Kathleen  The Momentum Of Success: The Role of Construction in the Thailand Economic Boom

Cavaleri, Steven with John Sterman  Towards Evaluation of Systems Thinking Interventions: A Case Study

Cavana, R.Y. with R.D. Hughes  Strategic Modeling for Competitive Advantage

Chen, Jin with Xu Qingrui and Shao Shaomin  A System Thinking Approach to Select Avenue of Science & Technology Development

Clark, Thomas D. with Hironori Kurono  A Conversion Table of DYNAMO into STELLA II

Das, Bhakta with Manas Bandyopadhyay and Pratap K. J. Mohapatra  System Dynamics Modeling of an Activated Sludge Plant

Di Stefano, Julia  From Control to Chaos: A System Dynamics model of Interpersonal Communication

Dowling, Anne M. with Roderick H. MacDonald and George P. Richardson   Simulation of Systems Archetypes

Egol, Morton  Information Age Accounting: Catalyst and Enable of the Self-Organizing Enterprise

Forest, Tom  Sustainable Civilization: Cohesion, Capacity and External Contacts

Ganter, Susan L. with James K. Doyle and Micheal J. Radzicki  Assessing System Dynamics Curricula: Past, Present and Future

Genta, Peter J. with Donald A. Seville  Economic Lift-Off, Boom and Bust: A System Dynamics View of the Bangkok, Thailand Economy 1980-1992

Georgantzas, Nicolas C. with James S. Fraser and Elvan Tugsuz  Bipartisan Process Improvement in Polymer Coating: Combining System Dynamics with Statistical Process Control (SPC)

Georgantzas, Nicolas C. with Sharon P. Smith and James S. Fraser  Allocation Dynamics of Resources Imperiled: AACSB, Students and Professors

Georgantzas, Nicolas C. with Andreas Schulte  Can Consummate Concentric, Conglomerate, Constrained And Contractual Creatures Create Value? An Intricate Shakespearean Impromptu on Romancing the Deal

Gill, Roderic  An Integrated Social Fabric Matrix /System Dynamics Approach to Policy Analysis

Gill, Roderic  Planning Sustainable Agro-Ecosystems: A System Dynamics Approach

Grobman, Martin U.   The Dynamics of Research and Development in the Pharmaceutical Industry–Productivity of Traditional versus New Research Technologies

Han, Jiuqiang with Guoji Sun  System Dynamics Simulation Software–Dynamox

Heinbokel, John F. with P. Jeffery Potash, Martin Engelken and Robert Green  Programs To Support the Development of System Dynamics-Based Curricula

Jia, Ren’an  A Mathematical Definition System of System Dynamics

Kim, Dong-Hwan with Doa Kim  System Dynamics Model for A Mixed Strategy Game Between Police and Driver

Kim, Dong-Hwan  A New Approach for Finding Dominant Feedback Loops: Loop By Loop Simulation for Tracking Feedback Loop Gains

Mitsuo, Kishi with Hosoda Ryusuke, Yamada Tomoki and Funahashi Hiroki  Transport Forecasting Based on Artificial Life Concept

Kojima, Takahiro with Yutaka Takahashi, Kinya Machida and Teiichi Igarashi  System Dynamics Model of the Tokyo System

Lane, David  Diary of an Oil Market Model: How an Interactive System Dynamics Modeling Process Was Used with Shell Managers t o Resolve Conflict and Generate Insight

Langley, Paul A.   Building Cognitive Feedback into a Microworld Learning Environment: Results from a Pilot Experiment

Lux, Nan with Eric Choi  System Dynamics and The Internet

Maier, Frank H.  Understanding the Dynamics Created by Management Decisions- A Vensim-based Simulation Approach for Management Education

Maier, Frank H.  Innovation Diffusion Models for Decision Support in Strategic Management

Mandal, Purnendu  Missing Links in Quality Initiatives in Australian Manufacturing Industry-A System Dynamics Analysis

Marquez, Adolfo with Rafael Usano and Antonio Herguedas  Maintenance Models and System Dynamics

Melero, Rosa with Jose A.D. Machuca  A Model for Learning about the Agricultural Business System

Mohapatra, Pratap K.L.  Use of System Dynamics Diagrammatic Tools as Representation Schemes for Linear Programming Models

Mohapatra, Pratap K.L.  Development and Maintenance Dynamics of a Software Business Firm

Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad T. with George P. Richardson   Confusion in the Polarity of Major Loops

Morgan, Tom with Bill Ammentorp   Human Service Systems: A Theoretical Perspective

Musaphir, Hamza with Ostap Hawaleshka  Understanding Strategy of a Manufacturing Based Learning Organization in Transition in the Twenty-First Century

Myrtveit, Magne   Feeding Your Models with Real Business Data

Ogunlana, Stephen with Jason Lim and Khalid Saeed  Civil Engineering Design Management Using a Dynamic Model

Ohta, Toshizumni with Antonio A. Montes and Tadashi Yamamoto   A Dynamic Comparison of Organizational Design Alternatives

Palfrey, Terence  Policy Design and the Problem of Fraud “Some Preliminary Ideas from Considering Fraud as a System Issue”

Piatteli, M. with Marta Cuneo, Nicola Bianchi and Nicola Triggiani  A General Model to Support Transport Planning

Pierce, Chris  Senior Management Standards, Management Development and Systems Thinking

Roca, Joan with Bill Ammentorp and Tom Morgan  The Global Electronic Community: Modeling the Sociology of Self-Organization

Ryzhenkov, Alexander  A Model of Capital Accumulation, Technological Progress and Long Waves

Saeed, Khalid  Growth of Construction Activity in Thailand: Views of the System from Three Vantage Points

Simon, Martin  System Dynamics in Engineering Education

Skelton, Sonia with Thomas Lynch, Craig F. Donaldson and M.H. Lyons  Modeling Product Life Cycles from Customer Organization

Stoyanova, P. with A.O. Moscardini, M. Elliott and R. Woodward  Order and Disorder in Creative Organizations

Suksawang, Orasa with Hari Srinivas  Limits to Urban Growth and Urbanization- A case study of Bangkok Problem

Takahagi, Eiichiro   Determination Methods of Rate Variable Using Fuzzy Theories

Tasrif, Muhammad  Developing Countries Dilemma: Labor Intensive Technology or Capital Intensive Technology?

Torres, M.D. with R. Lechon  A Dynamic Model of Labor Market

Usano, Rafael with Adolfo Marquez and Jose Torres  Advanced Manufacturing System Dynamics: the Lean Production Approach

Ushijima, Masaharu with Koichi Hori and Setsuo Ohsuga  Computer Aided Organizational Design

Vavik, Lars with Magne Myrtveit  Object based dynamic modeling

Wang, Qifan with Xianyong Wang  Organizational Flexibility and Learning Organization – Organization of CIMS Enterprise

Wang, Qifan with Jianzhong Yang  Modeling for Study of the Prospect if a Metropolis

Wang, Qifan with Bo Xu, Guoping Yang and Jianzhong Yang  Coordinated Development of Infrastructure in a Regional Economy

Wolstenholme, Eric F.  Decision Analysis Using Dynamic Simulation

Yamamura, Etsuo with Seiichi Kagaya  A System Dynamics Approach to Regional Impact of the Construction of a Submerged Floating Tunnel

Young, Jane A.O.  The Use of Metaphor within a Soft System Intervention, A Fairy Story as an ‘Alternative Rich Picture’

Young, Jane A.O.  Soft Landing into the 21st Century – Cultural Gap or Cultural Trap

Young, Showing H. with Sy-Feng Wang  Designing the Learning Environment of Learning Laboratory: Cognitive Strategy, Learning and Transfer

Young, Showing H. with Chia Chen  A Study of Business Competition from a System Dynamics Perspective

Young, Showing H. with Lih-Lian Hwang  A System Dynamic approach to the Hospital Nurse Turnover Problem in Taiwan

Yu, Jia-di with Xiu-jin Feng  Problems of Population Control in China

Yusuf, Ijaz with Khalid Saeed  A System Dynamics Approach to Analyze the Effect of High Set Up Time of Machines on Marketing Growth: The Case of Packages LTD. Pakistan

Zaraza, Ronald J.  The CC-STADUS Project: Developing and Nurturing a Cadre of Pre-College Teachers Using System Dynamics/Computer Modeling in the Classroom

Zeng, Decong with Changrong Zhong  A New Discourse on Technology Transfer

CONFERENCE ABSTRACTS

Volume I: Plenary Programs

A Search for an Operational Environmental Policy Based on the “Limits to Growth” Study

Surya Raj Acharya

Khalid Saeed

Abstract: Experimenting further with the World3 model, this paper attempts to formulate the operational means to implement the critical recommendations of the “Limits to Growth” study. Using feedback as the organizing principle and the work of Daly (1991), Page (1997) and Saeed (1985) as guidelines, additional policy space was built into the model for self-regulating its critical policy parameters. The policies so created not only appeared to lie within the scope of the existing and potentially feasible regulatory institutions, they were insensitive to their receptive behavioral parameters and also the timing to intervention. The operational policy design procedures adopted in the paper is also seen to create an important heuristic for policy design in general, which should strive to create operational rather than power-cased intervention.

The Threshold 21: Sustainable Development Model

Gerald O. Barney

Robert Eberlein

Weishuang Qu

P.D. Sharma

Abstract: As we approach the turn of the millennium and pass the 50th anniversary of the Breton Woods and the United Nations institutions, none of our major development agencies have a comprehensive sustainable development model. The Millennium Institute, after a decade of assisting countries in long-term sustainable development studies, has developed a multidisciplinary national sustainable development model called Threshold 21. The model integrates economic production, national accounts, demography, agriculture, energy, health, education, nutrition, and environment in a single model based on the principles and methodology of system dynamics. It simulates the dynamic interactions of these variables for a period of 50 years. Threshold 21 is written in the Vensim simulation environment. The model is being applied first in an analysis of alternative futures for Bangladesh. The Millennium Institute, in collaboration with development partners, is planning applications in several countries, including Australia, China, and the United States.

Sustainability and lateral Issues: A Model

Nazli Choucri

Rebecca Berry

Abstract: This paper presents the generic framework for a national-level model of sustainability. The basic assumption is that there is not one model (or condition) but multiple possibilities; not one path, but a multiplicity of options. The countries of this world are diverse indeed, and the challenges facing them are both generic and idiosyncratic. In appreciation of the complexity and diversity of development, our approach is to depict underlying structural and functional linkage representing the profile of states, with the objective of exploring possible paths over time in response to structural conditional as well as policy choices.

Formulation Experiments with a Simple Climate/ Economy Model

Thomas Fiddaman

Abstract: Much of the science and policy debate around global climate change has focused on models. Most models focus is a single aspect of climate change- atmospheric physics and chemistry, macroeconomic effects of abatement policies, or impacts on land cover from changing temperature and rainfall for example. Only a few models attempts to make climate change fully endogenous by including both the influence of human activities on climate and the impact of climate change on human activity. The best-known climate-economy model is William Nordhaus’ DICE model. The model is a conventional macroeconomics Ramsey growth model with simple carbon and temperature subsystems added. These create a negative feedback loop which tends to reduce economic output due to climate impacts on economic activity. Experiments with the model suggest that only limited effort should be addressed to carbon dioxide emissions abatement. While the DICE model meets some of the exogenous, such as the growth of population and emissions reduction technology. Output is generated by optimization, rather than by simulation with explicit decision rules. This paper explores the impact of structural changes to the model specification that attempts to bring it closer to the system dynamics paradigm. The impact of exogenous population and the technology drives is explored. Carbon flows are made more explicit, to demonstrate the importance of sink constraints and temperature feedbacks to the carbon cycle. A path dependent energy sector with endogenous technology is tested. Bounded rational decision rules are substituted for optimization. These tests generally yield results suggesting substantially higher abatement levels than Nordhaus concludes are necessary.

System Dynamics and the Sustainable Development of the Electric Power Industry

Andrew Ford

Abstract: This paper discusses the successful use of System Dynamics in the electric power industry. It begins with a list of studies and articles documenting extensive use of System Dynamics to aid corporate and government planners around the world. I then speculate on why this particular industry has been the focus of so many System Dynamics project for Bonneville Power Administration in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Reflecting on the Bonneville project, I observe two important trends. The first is a trend toward interactive models that are easier for group operation. The second is a trend toward more attention on the consumers of electric power. The paper concludes with results from a recent study of the world aluminum industry, an industry that consumes a tremendous amount of electric power.

Systems Thinking and the Case Method

Ari Ginsberg

John Morecroft

Abstract: To create more effective learning environments for a strategic management, system dynamics modelers have recommended the use of computer simulation models as a supplement to conventional case studies. Although custom designed simulation games provide students with the opportunity to investigate the effects of alternative actions, their creation involves considerable development efforts. Moreover, available simulations provide on direction for using case information to discover systems thinking issues and solutions. In this paper we demonstrate how instructors can introduce feedback concepts to students via conventional case discussion. Specifically, we show how feedback processes can be woven into a case discussion involving issues of corporate diversification and restructuring.

Soft Landing into the Twenty- First Century: The Requirements

Teruo Higa

Abstract: Since the Rome Club published its report. “Limits To Growth”, the following have been accepted by the present generations as common goals to create a better world for future generations: the efficient use of our limited natural resources, and the control of the growth of population which shows a tendency to ever consume more and faster. This movement has so far led to variety of revolutionary changes in energy-saving technology as well as the adoption of birth control by governments in Asia, such as China, India, and Indonesia. Since the end of the Cold War, a typical representation of confrontation and competition, the concept of coexistence and co-prosperity have become more viable and acceptable. The goals we wish to accomplish may be difficult, especially, if we proceed with the present method and style of consumption-oriented economic activities and with the burden of an ever growing population. As barriers among nations, economic and otherwise, are being removed, it not only eliminates the conceit of an otherwise isolated nation but it helps to make one nation’s problem a shared and more easily and quickly solvable world problem. As we approach the twenty-first century, people have started accepting the idea of a common goal of creating a world where people thrive towards coexistence and co-prosperity beyond religious, political and ideological differences. In a world of limited resources, desires extravagant and beyond its permissible level would always lead to a state contrary to coexistence and co-prosperity. Therefore, unless we resolve the problem of shortage, we will not be able to firmly establish coexistence and co-prosperity. When we consider the phrase “soft landing into the twenty-first century,” it is apparent that we accomplish the following: resolve the problems in our current education system, provide the technology to replace the consumption based economic activities with that of resource-recovery and recycling, and provide fundamental solutions to environment, food production, health care, and energy, all of which are presenting threats to humankind. Our present approach, the application of effective microorganism, has started gaining wide attention as the only technology available now. It has been applied in a wide variety of areas in environment, food production, medicine, energy, and industry. It is expected to be a breakthrough technology promising a soft landing for the people into twenty-first century.

Hierarchical Approach in System Dynamics Modeling

Dong-Hwan Kim

Jae-Ho Jun

Abstract: Traditionally system dynamists used two kinds of modelling approach; top-down approach and bottom-up approach. With top-down modelling approach (feedback loop thinking) modellers first draw a causal loop diagram and then details it down to the stock and rate variables and then auxiliary. Top-down approach forces a modeller to see forest rather than trees, while bottom-up approach forces a modeller to construct forest by planting trees incrementally. In general, system dynamics use both approach in modelling processes simultaneously or sequentially. However, most of previous softwares for SD modelling have focused on the bottom-up approach. The ‘operational thinking’ concept of Barry Richmond is most typical in this trend. In this paper, “a hierarchical modelling” is introduced as a new modelling approach which can integrate top-down approach and bottom-up approach. A hierarchical modelling approach extends the sector view concept proposed recently by Barry Richmond. In the hierarchical modelling approach, a sector can contain many sub-sectors which also can have their own sub-sector. A modeller can use a bottom-up approach or operational thinking in a sector. When a modeller wants to connect variable across sector or to extend a variable into a sector, he can use a top-down approach. In this paper, a hierarchical modelling approach is implemented with an object-oriented programming method. This paper explains why an object-oriented programming is necessary in implementing the hierarchical modelling approach and discusses some problems which should be resolved for developing a more easy and transparent hierarchical modelling approach.

Techno-Paradigm Shift and its Research Methodology

Fumio Kodama

Abstract: In order to express the radical changes in the way technology has been and continues to be developed, applied, and commercialized over time, the concept of a techno-paradigm shift is used. The techno-paradigm shift is distinguished into five dimensions: innovation pattern, and societal diffusion of technology. In order to obtain a comprehensive understanding of these dynamic characteristics of technology, we have to orchestrate a unique blends of scholarly tools- case studies, formal modeling, and insightful observations.

The Folding Star: A Comparative Reframing and the Extension of Validity Concepts in System Dynamics

David Lane

Abstract: The paper reviews ideas on validation in both mainstream OR/MS simulation and SD. A tetrahedron model derived from the former literature is adapted to SD and proposed in a new form; the Folding Star. This framework structures ideas on the elements of SD activities as well as the roles and validation measures required. Further structuring using a tabular and hierarchical format results in an interpretation of current SD validity test and the proposal of two extensions, concerning cultural and operational issues. The framework is able to demonstrate the validity aspirations of different SD activities and to indicate areas for future development in validation test. It also shows the respective strengths and weaknesses of different SD activities and leads to the proposal of a new form, Extended SD, an engagement between SD and ‘soft’ OR which aspires to a comprehensive notion of validity.

Managing and Understanding Technological Innovations

Peter M. Milling

Abstract: Controlling the development of new products, their growth and market penetration is a key task for corporate management. Its importance for the firm’s survival triggered extensive mathematical modeling efforts to improve the decision making quality. Most models used in this field, however, lack crucial factors of success or failure of innovation; they frequently do not include managerial decision variable like rice, delivery delays, quality, etc. or do not reflect comprehensively the involved factors. The paper outlines the concepts of computer based Strategy Support and the role of management Simulators. A modularly composed simulation model of the innovation process is presented which reflects the tight interrelationships between corporate actions and market response. In explains how the dynamics of a product life cycle are generated, and how structure causes behavior. The model is relatively easy to understand in its elements and catches essential aspect of innovation dynamics. Its actual complexity results largely from the consecutiveness of the variables and the nonlinear relations. Its applicability to managerial problem solving is demonstrated by analyzing and evaluating different strategies like pricing, capacity expansion and the role of effective quality control. The model is extended to include the processes of Research and development and their relationship to resource allocation and market success. A management simulator- based on the comprehensive innovation model- is introduced which supports teaching and training and fosters Organizational Learning.

Communication Network Systems for Competitiveness: The Japanese World Class Manufacturing Case

Michiya Morita

Nobuhide Tanaka

Harunori Mori

Yutaka Takahashi

Abstract: The functioning of the communication systems has been thought as one of the most important management and operating processes for the firm’s competitiveness. This paper is trying to identify the communication systems’ structure which lead to high competitiveness, from the positive analysis of Japanese World Class Manufacturing complains. The “linkage” structure throughout the firm from the strategic or innovative communication phase to the operational communication phase has appeared. We inquire into the determinants of the structure. The process of forming the structure is proposed hypothetically based in the analysis. We also provide the implications for modeling the structure by the system simulation like System Dynamics, the problems to be challenged and potential managerial meanings we could obtain as the result of it.

Models Crossing the Boundaries of Tools

Magne Myrtveit

Abstract: As the filed of system dynamics matures, and the number of available tools increases, the problems related to incompatible model formats consume increasingly large portions of researchers’, educators’, and model users’ time. Manifestations of these problems are many: Researchers may be unable to communicate models because they are using different tool (or different versions of the same tool). Educators face problems distributing models because schools use different tools. Authors have problems including a model disk with their books, as readers use different tools. Similar problems have been experienced with other tools, like word processors and drawing programs. The kind of solutions that are used for transferring documents between word processors can be applied also to system dynamics models. One solution would be to implement a series of model conversion filters in each SD tool. (This corresponds to the way MS-Word may load and store files in WordStar, Word Perfect, Works, and Write format). Another solution would be to define a common standard file format for interchanging models. (This corresponds to formats like plain text and Rich Text Format for documents, and BMP, EPS, GIF, PCX, TIFF, and WMF for graphics.) The latter approach has several advantages. 1) Each software tool need only support one foreign file format, in addition to its native file format. 2) The software tools need no knowledge of each native file formats. The benefits of developing a model interchange file format are many; 1) Models may be stored in a common format (e.g., in libraries). 2) Models may be transferred in a common format (e-mail, diskettes included in text books, etc.). 3) Co-development of models. 4) Easier use of several tools by the same user.

On The Modeling of Sea Power: An Extension of the Polis Model in a Competitive Scenario

  1. Piattelli

R.G. Coyle

Abstract: This paper deals with an extension of the “Polis” model that focuses on the subject of Sea Power. The presentation follows two complementary lines: the simulation of the naval conflict arising from Greek colonization westward during the last millennium BC; the discussion of this model within the general approach to Sea Power adopted by the leading authors in the field, Mahan and Kennedy. The conclusions concern the actual limits of the Polis in modeling Sea Power and further steps in its development. Finally, the main difficulties involved in issues of this kind are briefly discussed.

A System Dynamics Approach to Sustainable Cities

Michael J. Radzicki

  1. Scott Trees

Abstract: The idea of sustainable cities has become central to the concept of sustainable economic development. This paper demonstrates that system dynamics modeling can be effectively used to study the forces preventing the sustainable development of cities. The problems being experienced by cities located in both the less industrialized and industrialized nations are examined, and a slate of current policy prescriptions is described. Simulation runs from a system dynamics model created to examine some of the barriers to the sustainable development of cities are presented and their implications for public policy are discussed.

Chaos from Generic Structures: A Cautionary Tale

George P. Richardson

Abstract: An elegantly simple and understandable model composed of generic structures is shown to move from damped oscillations to repeated period doubling, leading eventually to chaos. The third order structure contains a balancing loop with a delay and integral control that attenuates as the accumulated pressure gets relatively large. The model and its behavior are so classic and it so quickly converges on its attractor that it may well serve as an ideal structure with which to introduce complex nonlinear behavior and deterministic chaos. Unfortunately, the model contains a subtle error, which, when corrected, destroys in model’s ability to exhibit complex behavior. Reflection on these results suggests a number of cautions about modeling practice.

Problems for the Future of System Dynamics

George P. Richardson

Abstract: The field of system dynamics first envisioned by Forrester in 1956 is approaching its fortieth anniversary. It has experienced two significant revolutions: changes in practice wrought by the development of iconographic software and the shift from modeling to improve a process to modeling for the purpose of improving people’s mental models (Forrester 1992). Its third revolution—expanding the pool of practicing modelers far beyond the nucleus who have received university training  —has been underway since STELLA hit the schools in the late 1980s. A fourth revolution – moving to the forefront qualitative modeling based on word-and-arrow archetypes—began quietly in the mid 1980s (e.g., Wolstenholme and Ciyle 1983) and exploded on the scene with the publication of The Fifth Discipline (Senge 1990). These resent and ongoing revolutions carry promise and potential pitfalls for the field.

The Organization of Learning in System Dynamics Practice

Khalid Saeed

Abstract: This paper carefully examines the classical system dynamics practice in the context of human learning process and attempts to explicitly state an implementation procedure that should enhance the use of modeling as a thinking companion at a wide scale. A generic model of learning is used to delineate the principles of conduct of system dynamics modeling. Further, the various activities called for are grouped into a set for four core competencies which are based on four key human abilities. The organizing principles which must be superimposed on the learning abilities to deliver the core competencies are also discussed. A clear statement of the principles of the learning process in system dynamic practice should transform system dynamic modeling from an art learnt mostly through apprenticeship of experts to craft acquired through written word.

Unanticipated Side Effects of Successful Quality Programs: Exploring a Paradox of Organizational Improvement

John Sterman

Nelson Repenning

Fred Kofman

Abstract: Resent evidence suggests the connection between quality improvement and financial results may be weak. Consider the case of Analog Devices, Inc., a leading manufacturer of integrated circuits. Analog’s TQM program was a dramatic success. Yield doubled, cycle time was cut in half, and product defects fell by a factor of ten. However, financial performance worsened. To explore the apparent paradox we develop a detailed simulation model of Analog, including operations, financial and cost accounting, product development, human resources, the competitive environment, and the financial markets. We used econometric estimation, interviews, observation, and archival data to specify and estimate the model. We find that improvement programs like TQM can present firms with a tradeoff between short and long run effects. In the long run TQM can increase productivity, raise quality, and lower costs. In the short run, these improvements can interact with prevailing accounting systems and organizational routines to create excess capacity, financial stress, and pressures for layoffs that undercut commitment to continuous improvement. We explore policies to promote sustained improvements in financial as well as nonfinancial measures of performance.

Understanding the Dynamics of Technology Switching in Seeking to Maintain International Competitiveness

Graham W. Winch

Abstract: When firms face the possibility of making fundamental change, as opposed to incremental improvements, to maintain their competitiveness, their senior teams face particularly uncertain times. This paper focuses on a system dynamics model that captures that situation of an industry experiencing the switching of its production plans to a new process technology. The model enables the complexity of this situation to be represented, and facilitates a clearer understanding of the expected industry dynamics. The results show that an individual firm facing the up-grade decision must consider the impacts of the change across a number of dimensions, and demonstrates that the point in time along the industry’s endemic capacity-building / price cycle may have an important impact on the economics of the decision. The paper is also able to draw some comparisons between this and the other approaches to modelling technology change decision-some comparisons between this and other approaches to modelling technology change decision-making.

Systems Thinking, System Dynamics

Eric F. Wolstenholme

Abstract: This paper attempts to build a coherent picture of the way in which various system problem solving methodologies relate to one another. The work builds on the discussion and views expressed at the 1994 System Dynamics Conference that held at Stirling and expressed in the special edition of the System Dynamics Review entitled “System Thinkers, System Thinking”. The underlying premises, assumptions and terminology of a number of such approaches are reviewed, contrasted and summarized. It is argued that, in philosophical and academic terms, System Thinking should be considered as a total framework which subsumes all system approaches to understanding human activity. Further, that there exists a range of System Thinking methodologies which can defined and contrasted by positioning them dependent on the degree of vagueness (to be relevant) and their degree of rigour (to be meaningful). It also suggested that their base position may shift dependent on their area of application. It is hoped that this paper or a derivative of it might be used as a reference by practitioners to explain to end-point users if system methods how their own approached fits into a wider and integrated framework.

Strategic Evalution of Flexible Assembly Systems-Combining Hard and Soft Decision Criteria

Erich Zahn

Jurgen Greschner

Abstract: The evaluation of investments in flexible assembly system lacks of an appropriate methodology. First a brief review of decision making process regarding complex investments is given. Such decisions have to be made in the tension of hard and soft decision criteria which often produce a dilemma for the decision maker: Considering only short-term effects in terms of hard criteria will usually kill investments proposals. In contrast managers feel the need for the investment but have difficulties to justify their intuitive insights. As a possible solution a System Dynamics based approach is proposed to bridge the gap between rational and intuitive judgment. The approach combines qualitative and quantitative criteria by using a computer-aided step-by-step modelling concept.

Volume II: Parallel Programs

Quantifying the Soft Issues: A Case Study in the Banking Industry

Henk Akkermans

Abstract: Quantification of causal models that contain many so-called “soft” variables is often problematic because so few “hard” data are available to calibrate the model. This paper describes a case study in which different techniques were used to qualify a causal model that contained a number of such soft variables, such as “level of expected customer irritation”, or “effort required to reach branch office”. The case study itself concerned the development of a decision-support system to assess branch office viability of a medium-sized bank. The specifics techniques used for quantification are viability for a medium-sized bank. The specific techniques used for quantification are part of the standard “tool set” of the Participative Modelling (PBM) Method, the synergistic blend of system dynamics and group knowledge elicitation techniques developed by the author in a series of six case studies, of which was the fifth.

 

An Urban Growth Modeling Based On Urban Attraction

Toshiaki Aoki

Hajime Inamura

Abstract: There are two main current of urban growth modeling. One is a traditional synthetic growth model using System Dynamics(SD). The other is a regional science model which can determine the location of industry and residence based on micro economics. Although this study basically uses the framework of SD, the principles of micro economics and an aggregated behavior model are introduced in some part in order to make the urban growth models more reliable. The model has four traditional sectors, such as industry sector, population sector, land sector and worker sector. In addition to them, there is a crucial addition of the migration sector which predicts the migration intended for Sendai, Tokyo and other part of Tohoku. Migration based on urban attraction is determined using real data based on an individual utility concept and a multiple regression analysis. The model is applied to Sendai Metropolitan Area for coming 100 years.

 

Electricity Conservation in Domestic Sector of Pakistan: A System Dynamics Approach

Javaid Aslam

Khalid Saeed

Abstract: This paper describes the dynamics of supply and demand, price and pilferage, and resources and need of electricity conservation in the Domestic Sector of Pakistan. The dynamic hypothesis of the model is described. Then explanation of system behaviour, through model simulation, is given. The system dynamics treatment of the feedback loops is contrasted with the treatment found in most electric utilities of the world in general and of Pakistan in particular. The flexibility of the technique was extensively utilized in policy analysis and 22 policies were studied, out of which 11 are discussed in this paper. It also shows that electricity conservation is a very complex socio-economic environment, a more complex issue than conservation itself, rather moral than economic, and is not very much in the control of utilities alone. The study provided many insight, e.g. pricing policies are not the cause if the problem, increase in income level may not alleviate pilferage of electricity, conservation may be possible with pilferage control and certain incentives, and resource allocation needs social attention.

 

Dynamic Model of Purchasing Quality

Anil K. Bajpai

Phillip C.T. Wiley

Abstract: The importance of quality costs and benefits is sometimes not fully recognized by industrial managers, Quality costs money. Industrial managers recognize this and tend to be afraid of spending on quality. But, quality also earns money. Industrial managers may need to be convinced of this fact. Unfortunately, existing publications on the subject do not encourage investment for higher quality. Most of the models about quality improvement costs and even about the cost of achieving the desired level of quality fail to incorporate the benefits of improved quality. This paper describes a model of purchase quality costs and benefits. The purchase quality costs elements are drawn from various standard sources such as the British Standards and American Society of Quality Control (ASQC) publications on purchase quality. The benefits from investing for purchase quality are taken from recently published case studies and reports as well as from our own experiences. The elements of quality related activities of a purchase department are -review of purchase order, capability survey of suppliers and purchase planning. The contribution of each element, starting from estimation of loses due to inadequate purchase quality through to prevention of poor quality are isolated and linked dynamically so that costs and benefits are demonstrated through time. The purchase quality costs and benefits model is developed using the system dynamics modelling approach, and simulated using a computer software package, ‘Professional DYNAMO Plus’. The simulated results demonstrate the extent to which prevention investment in purchasing is justified by future earning. It is felt that the model can be a significant addition to course material for training programmes of purchase managers. It allows the user to explore the consequence of different levels, type and timing of investment on profit performance and the delays before profits are increased. It is hoped that the model will serve as useful tool for decision-makers, encouraging them to invest in improvement-related activities.

 

IGRASP-A System Dynamics Software Package With Automatic Code Generation Facility

Souvik Banerjee

Mohit Junja

Pratap K. J. Mohapatra

Abstract: In this paper, we describe the feature of IGRASP (Interactive Graphic Simulation Package), a software package developed by the authors, which helps in developing and simulation system dynamic model and which has the facility of automatically developing codes for system dynamic models from their flow diagrams. The package integrates the following four modules :(1) The graphic user-interface module, (2) The automatic code generation module, (3) The simulation module, and (4) The output module. The key to the automatic code generation lies in the dimensional matching of the variable for which the code is generated and the set of variables and parameters which influenced it.

 

An Educational Dynamic Model for Net Working Capital Management in a Trading Wholesale Firm

Carmine Bianchi

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to sketch a dynamic model which may be useful to improve net working capital (NWC) management. This subject is commonly studied through the use of accounting models, which are mainly based on General Ledger data.

 

Dynamic Modeling for “Products Portfolio” Management and New Products Launching

Carmine Bianchi

Habib Sedehi

Abstract: The paper aims to sketch a dynamic model in order to support decisions for the allocation of financial (i.e. cash flow provided by current sales) and human resources to Marketing and R&D policies, in order to better manage “product portfolio” and new products launching in an industrial firm. The working hypothesis from which the paper stems is to consider that the strategic control for launching new products and monitoring the path of the old ones along their life-cycles is not only possible through the use of accounting models, but also through dynamic models. Both kind of models indeed can be useful in “product portfolio” management; however, each of them may better satisfy different purposes. More particularly, accounting models (i.e.: those which are mainly based on General Ledger data) may better support some cognitive purpose regarding the management of each product separately without taking in “account” the interrelation influence between new and old products. On the other hand, the use of dynamic model, which is mainly based on non-accounting data, may particularly enable to: improve management learning of the system (as a whole) to be handled; implement a strategic control sub-system of resource allocation to product, drawing more on mental models, personal, personal experience and intuition of the entrepreneur and of management than on accounting data; improve an inter-functional and inter-divisional approach and so a better understanding of trade-off among financial, marketing, production, R&D subsystems and though decisions on “product portfolio” management; point out the different levers on which management may act and evaluate the different effects they may produce in the short and in the long term, so to assess the several possible consequences of managerial decision on the product life-cycle; better evaluate the medium/long term effects of product discretionary costs (Advertising, R&D, Education, etc.) on product cash flows. This may lead to a more integrated monitoring and understanding of the paths that different products may run along their cycle. The above said working hypothesis will empirically be tested in a medium-sized wine producer firm.

 

The Momentum Of Success: The Role of Construction in the Thailand Economic Boom

Kathleen Brooke

Abstract: Construction freezes the ratio of industrial to housing area (Forrester, 1969), becoming visible, measurable, evidence of structural change. The Momentum of Success documents economic activities of the construction sector during the Thailand economic boom. An important research protocol was the gathering of both qualitative data, with interview of 75 leaders of industry and government concerning decision-making factors experienced during the boom. The database was analyzed by three system dynamicists as well as by the disciplines of psychology, construction economics, and statistics. The results reveal three patterns of strategic action, with suggested future competencies for business and government in regions undergoing rapid development.

 

Towards Evaluation of Systems Thinking Interventions: A Case Study

Steven Cavaleri

John Sterman

Abstract: Recent innovations in systems thinking have fueled growing interest among managers in the practical application of the tool (Senge 1990, Morecroft and Sterman 1994, Senge et al. 1994). A number of technologies and protocols are more useful for developing systems thinking capability in organizations and individuals, such as management flight simulators, experiential exercises, and casual loop diagramming. Although various intervention techniques that fall under the rubric ‘ systems thinking’ have become quite popular, little is known about their effectiveness in enhancing organizational effectiveness or productivity. In general, the relationship between the use of systems thinking and organizational performance remains the province of anecdote rather than developed if we are to build a strong foundation for the effective use and refinement of the tools of system dynamics and system thinking. In this paper we evaluate a well-known and often-cited systems thinking intervention in an organization. The evaluation suggests the intervention did have positive effects on the organization, but because the original intervention was not designed with evaluation in mind, the study also illustrates many of the difficulties encountered in conducting such evaluations.

 

Strategic Modeling for Competitive Advantage

R.Y. Cavana

R.D. Hughes

Abstract: This paper provides an interim report of the work of the authors in developing a framework for analysing strategic and policy decisions within organizations. To explore frameworks a system dynamics model is developed which draws upon Michael Porter’s approach to assessing industry profitability, Alfred Rappaport’s method for measuring value creation and Oliver Williamson’s approach for aligning management structures with the nature of the service being provided that promote economic efficiency. The framework is empirically tested based on the development of a dynamic simulation model of subsidiary of a large private sector company in New Zealand. A number of scenarios are provided illustrating the use of the model.

 

A System Thinking Approach to Select Avenue of Science & Technology Development

Jin Chen

Xu Qingrui

Shao Shaomin

Abstract: It is a very important issue for China’s sustainable development of economy and society aided by Science & Technology (S&T) Development. The Avenue of Science & Technology Development (ASTD) occupies a special place in the development process of Science and Technology. In Western views, innovation goes through from basic research, technological development to the commercialization. But for most developing countries, as we understood, innovation often started from the process of technology acquisition and innovation occurs when the indigenous technological innovation capability is good. So the S&T development of China may take avenue as NICs did, and improving indigenous technological innovation capabilities is extremely important, but China’s strong S&T potentiality should not be ignored, there do exists a special strategy of S&T development for China. Concerning the vague understand on the choice of avenue of science and technology development in China as well as the avenue of science and technology development did not match with national situation of China, this paper provides a system thinking tool, a system dynamics model, to analyze the choice of avenue of science and technology development in coming 50 years in China.

 

 

A Conversion Table of DYNAMO into STELLA II

Thomas D. Clark

Hironori Kurono

Abstract: Although there have been many System Dynamics models written in DYNAMO, which are the common property in the society now, there are many obstacles recognized in studying these models using STELLA.  This paper shows a conversion table of the basic DYNAMO rules into STELLA II in order to overcome these obstacles.  First, we refer to the recent graduate increase of the papers System Dynamics Review, etc. which used STELLA I or STELLA II, and then we expect STELLA II for windows will be used more for model building in the future.  Second, we refer to the general features of five differences between DYNAMO and STELLA II in terms of terminology, an equation, a time script, a time related character, and the relationship of Level and Rate (or stock and Flow), and then we refer to one similarity in terms of value chain.  Third we show a comparison table of DYNAMO functions with STELLA II functions according to the categories of Delay and Smooth Functions, Logical Functions, Table Functions, and then we show a conversion table of DYNAMO functions into STELLA II functions using simple examples respectively.  In addition, we show the applications of Sub-Model and Space Compression Object (SCO) of STELLA II functions, which are the new methods available in Stella II (Mac v3.0.4, 1993).  In conclusion, we successfully convert the model of Saturday Evening Post written in DYNAMO (Hall 1973) into a model in STELLA II according to these our findings in order to estimate them.

 

 

System Dynamics Modeling of an Activated Sludge Plant

Bhakta Das

Manas Bandyopadhyay

Pratap K. J. Mohapatra

Abstract: This paper systematically presents, with the help of flow diagrams, the development of a system dynamics model for an activated sludge plant which is used to treat the waste water biologically under aerobic conditions.  Three different physical flows  (hydraulic flow, biomass flow and flow of substrate) are considered in the model.  The model is simulated with the help of IGRASP.  The transient and steady-state behaviour of the growth of biomass, sludge production and the treatment efficiency, and their sensitivity to variations of physical (both environmental and physical) parameters are studied in detail.  Strategies for recirculation of activated biomass in the treatment plant are evaluated. At the end, the paper indicates the merit of system dynamics modeling as a tool for conceptualizing relationships, integrating knowledge about separate parts and evaluating control strategies in environmental systems.

 

From Control to Chaos: A System Dynamics model of Interpersonal Communication

Julia Di Stefano

Abstract: The current interest in learning organizations makes clear the need for more open, more collaborative communication practices in the workplace. “To compete in today’s fast moving business environment,” says one corporate communication expert, “organization must create a culture of shared understanding” (Locke, 1992,245).  However, a major obstacle to facilitating open communication and the generation of new ideas required in learning organizations is the inadequacy of traditional communication models.  These models tend to use information for control in organizations; to see information as signals or bits separate from meaning; to see the brain as analogous to a computer; and to seek accurate transmission and replication of messages rather than creation of new information. The purpose of this paper is to show that the confluence model of negotiating differences in interpretation is better suited to understanding interpersonal communication than the traditional cybernetic and information theory models based on Wiener and Shannon and Weaver.  Furthermore, it argues that information for control is an outdated model that binds us to old scripts, to replicating traditional patterns rather than creating new ones.

 

Simulation of Systems Archetypes

Anne M. Dowling

Roderick H. MacDonald

George P. Richardson

Abstract: In recent years an important component of the research agenda in the field of system dynamics has focused on the definition and use of archetypal structures.  Although the primary objective of such research is to develop an intrinsic set of system structures that can be used to categorize insights in dynamic systems, the ultimate goal is to provide an effective mechanism by which information can be transferred from a system dynamics model to a client in an easy to comprehend manner.  To date, a number of archetypal structures have been presented by Richmond, Senge, and Wolstenholme. This paper discusses two systems archetypes proposed by Senge: “shifting the burden” and “fixes that fail.” By developing sets of precise code and simulating the models, the authors document the written descriptions of these two archetypal structures and explore the extent to which the structures behave as expected. The authors demonstrate that the development of formal models for systems archetypes is not an easy task.

                       

Information Age Accounting: Catalyst and Enable of the Self-Organizing Enterprise

Morton Egol

Abstract: A paradox of the Information Age is that while the sheer quantity of data and information has grown exponentially, the quality of understanding is typically declining. New technologies are driving accelerating change and complexity, leading to greatly increased uncertainty and heightened business risk. There is widespread recognition that the old “command and control” decision making model, which relied on the insights of the “brains at the top” of the organization, is inadequate to cope with today’s challenges. Yet nothing has emerged to take its place. Management has responded to change by reengineering core processes and decentralization through “empowerment” of employees and cross- functional teams; but such efforts, while a step in the right direction, have generally not been successful. Instead of increasing the organization’s capacity for creative and timely response to radical change in the marketplace, the changes frequently have amounted to mere downsizing- leaving the organization and its employees more anxious and fearful of change than before.

 

Sustainable Civilization: Cohesion, Capacity and External Contacts

Tom Forest

Abstract: Human civilizations cover the Earth. In the last several thousand years, many civilizations have been created. Several still exist. Over the next few hundred years, they will change. The most likely scenarios are: 1) All current civilizations come to a quick end in conflict with each other. After several hundred years, new civilizations arise. Many have values and policies strongly contrasting with those of today’s civilizations. 2) A new civilization is formed from a combination of today’s, which then collapses in civil disorder. After a few hundred years, new civilizations arise, many with values and policies strongly contrasting with those of the world’s current civilizations. 3) Today’s existing civilizations coexist peacefully until they, in turn then together, dissolve in civil unrest. After a few hundred years, new civilization arise, many with values and policies strongly contrasting with those of the world’s current civilizations. 4) Today’s existing civilizations change their values, over a course of a few decades, to embrace values of sufficiency and sustainability. They coexist peacefully until, in a few hundred years, they coalesce into a new civilization. This paper describes a model to stimulate the characteristic behavior modes of one civilization’s extent and intensity, and how it relates to a second civilization. These modes include externally generated pressure collapse; internal loss of cohesion and resource shortage collapse modes; and a mode of sustainable civilization.

 

Assessing System Dynamics Curricula: Past, Present and Future

Susan L. Ganter

James K. Doyle

Micheal J. Radzicki

Abstract: Many claims have been made for the efficacy of the growing number of curricula utilizing system dynamics. However, although there is educational research that will likely support these claims, systematic efforts to document them thus far have been inadequate or non-existent. This paper will review and critique one such effort to assess the effectiveness of system dynamics in the classroom. The compelling need for improved SD assessment procedures, as well as recommendations for the future projects in SD assessment, will then be discussed.

 

Economic Lift-Off, Boom and Bust: A System Dynamics View of the Bangkok, Thailand Economy 1980-1992

Peter J. Genta

Donald A. Seville

Abstract: The World Bank has recently published a 390 page study, “The East Asian Miracle” to try to shed some light on the role of government intervention in the development of East Asian economies. Could we better understand this phenomenon participate in an extensive study into the factors behind the Bangkok, Thailand real estate economy, we developed a casual loop diagram to help explain the factors responsible for the boom and eventual slow down. This process revealed some of the leverage points a similar process of understanding, the lessons learned should be applicable to other developing nations.

 

Bipartisan Process Improvement in Polymer Coating: Combining System Dynamics with Statistical Process Control (SPC)

Nicolas C. Georgantzas

James S. Fraser

Elvan Tugsuz

Abstract: A firm’s end-product waste problem motivated us to investigate the structure underlying a polymer coating process (PCP) by combining system dynamics simulation modeling with statistical process control (SPC). Our bipartisan approach proved to be rather powerful: not only it provides insight about the negative feedback-loop structure between temperature distribution and polymer thickness but also allows assessing the potential affects of leverage points on the stability of the polymer manufacturing process directly from the process capability and control charts. The new knowledge gained yields a dramatic improvement in the firm’s end-product quality and productivity. Worth nothing is our transforming of the heat control equations–which correspond to the gelling operations of polymer foam and be solved using standard Runge-Kutta methods. Consequently, our essay illustrates how to effectively handle parabolic partial differential equations using conventional system dynamics simulation software.

 

Allocation Dynamics of Resources Imperiled: AACSB, Students and Professors

Nicolas C. Georgantzas

Sharon P. Smith

James S. Fraser

Abstract: To comply with accreditation standards of the American Association of Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB), B-schools in the United States have to maintain a low student to faculty ratio. AACSB standards also affect the process of reviewing full-time faculty (FTF) members for promotion and tenure (P&T), so that the P&T review process safeguards the continued development of educational and intellectual activities in US B-schools. AACSB requires the FTF of its members to enhance the reputation of their B-schools through research and publications. This essay extends the work of Georgantzas, Hamilton, & Drobnis (1994) on the implementation of AACSB standards through feedback-loop planning, showing how a system dynamics simulation model complete with computed scenarios has been helping a small but prestigious B-school assess its future in term of student to faculty ratios.

 

Can Consummate Concentric, Conglomerate, Constrained And Contractual Creatures Create Value? An Intricate Shakespearean Impromptu on Romancing the Deal

Nicolas C. Georgantzas

Andreas Schulte

Abstract: This abstract extends the merger and acquisition (M&A) model of Georgantzas, Schmid, & Walton (1994), showing the dynamic evolution of markets into hierarchies or other transactional exchange governance (TEG) forms resulting from the creation of a climate of trust and its effect on the internalization cost of control. The extended M&A model offsets the shortcomings of transaction cost economics (TCE) and points to the potentially rich contribution of system dynamics to exploring governance structures beyond the ideal-type forms of markets and hierarchies that dominate the TCE literature.

 

An Integrated Social Fabric Matrix /System Dynamics Approach to Policy Analysis

Roderic Gill

Abstract: All socioeconomic systems are characterised by a complexity of interacting influence patterns that would usually incorporate institutional, environmental, technological, and behavioural relationships. The challenge for management is to develop a sufficiently detailed understanding of these influences in order to develop effective opportunities and mechanism for control. This challenge is heightened by the tradition of ‘partial’ or non-holistic thinking that continues as the conventional wisdom in the management field. Though the imperative for holistic thinking is intuitively supported by most mangers, the difficulties associated with implementing these ideas into management practice may be perceived as being ‘too hard’ or ‘open ended’ for practical application. System dynamics modelling is an appropriate process for developing an holistic understanding of any socio economic system. A realistic model can be applied to the development of management strategies and decision support. To a novice modeller, however, model construction can be intimidating process lacking in the kind of systematic procedural support seemingly offered by the more conventional, non-holistic management school. To a large degree, the integration of the qualitative social fabric matrix with quantitative system dynamics presents a more system modelling process for practical application. The proposed amalgamation also yields some added conceptual insights into the nature of management processes and prospects for control.

 

Planning Sustainable Agro-Ecosystems: A System Dynamics Approach

Roderic Gill

Abstract: The assessment of and planning for agricultural system sustainability is a difficult task not adequately handled by conventional methods of farm management analysis. Sustainability is appropriately considered as multi-dimensioned phenomenon incorporating ecological, economic and sociological aspects. An holistic perspective is necessary to consider these dimensions. The inherent complexity of real world agricultural system implies an inductive, rather than deductive analytical approach. As an inductive modelling procedure, system dynamics is able to represent the underlying feedback processes that define those ecological economic processes relevant to an understanding of sustainability. Through such an understanding, the analyst is able to facilitate change towards the ultimate goal of holistic system sustainability. A case study model is developed to indicate the relevant modelling procedure and outline some guidelines for interpretation.

 

The Dynamics of Research and Development in the Pharmaceutical Industry–Productivity of Traditional versus New Research Technologies

Martin U. Grobman

Abstract: The process of research and development (R&D) in the pharmaceutical industry has become increasingly unproductive during the last few decades. One reason, among others, for this development is the diminishing level of performance reached by research technologies. In the following study the term ‘performance’ is limited to an output measurement which is reflected by the number of new drugs launched into the market by which therapeutic improvements can be realized. The purpose of this study is to analyze the decreasing performance of traditional technologies in order to partly explain the reduction in R&D productivity. Subsequently, the potential impact of new technologies upon research performance will be simulated by using System Dynamics. Broad-scale random screening is the main technological process traditionally used to discover chemical substances for new drugs. This study reveals the random screening can be adequately modelled by the statistical formula Poisson function. The function is used to calculate the probability of discovering new drugs. Empirical data from the German pharmaceutical industry from the 1950s onwards were out into the formula. The results show that the probability of discovering new drugs has decreased strongly by using  random screening. Furthermore, the risk involved in research with random screening can be measured by Poisson distribution functions. In can be seen that risk has risen significantly since the 1950s. The Poisson formula also provides a formal framework for forecasting the impact of new technologies on the rate of drug recovery. The high potential performance of new biotechnologies, especially genetic engineering, could increase research success rates significantly. A System Dynamics model has been constructed in a prototype version to generate scenarios for future output rates. The high uncertainly in predicting research successes can be estimated by a best, a worst and an intermediate forecast based upon varying assumptions. The software application Vensim has been used for modelling and simulating. The model is partly based on hypothetical data and is, therefore, a first step towards forecasting the impact of genetic engineering on research performance in the pharmaceutical industry.

 

System Dynamics Simulation Software–Dynamox

Jiuqiang  Han

Guoji Sun

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present the characteristic, functions and program structure of system dynamics simulation – DYNAMOX that can be used on XENIX operation system. This software is mainly composed of six parts. (1) dispatch management module, (2) parameter modify module, (3) model compiler module, (4) model run module, (5) database access module, (6) model library access module. In order to illustrate out software, we give a simple example about the organism relationship model between deers, beasts and grass in Kaibab plateau.

 

Programs To Support the Development of System Dynamics-Based Curricula

John F. Heinbokel

  1. Jeffery Potash

Martin Engelken

Robert Green

Abstract: Over the past several years, faculty at Trinity College have engaged in a number of project to develop their modelling skills, to incorporate modelling into established courses, to use modelling as foundation for new interdisciplinary courses, to develop modelling skills in our students, and to reach out to pre-college educators to support their development in similar directions. Our more successful experiments share at least one common element: They begin with a conceptually simple theme, and then systematically and progressively build complexity, realism, and connections to more diverse fields, around the central theme. Such structure allows the development of entire course on foundation of system dynamic modelling, rather than episodic modeling exercises common in many other educational settings. An additional benefit is that several of our experiments have begun to provide unexpectedly reinforcing support for other experiments. In this contribution we briefly describe these recent experiments which, together, can provide significant support to pre-college educators and educational systems seeking to enhance the system dynamic components of the curricula. Our efforts to provide initial modeling training for teachers rested upon a graded sequence of modeling exercises progressively developing more complex, realistic models of human population growth, then connecting the population dynamics to the other topics of interest to the teachers. Recognizing this strategy as an effective one for building modeling skills, we have used it as conceptual  foundation for an interactive computer-based tutorial for the building of STELLA II models. This Tutorial can support independent learning of this language, serve as a self-paced adjunct to more traditional modeling instruction, or provide a means to convey basic skills and concepts to students using models within a particular course. Following these successes, we developed in 1993 an interdisciplinary (primary biology, history, and economic) college course (Plagues and People) in which a simple model disease transmission served as the core model with which to develop diverse scenarios addressing historical, social, and economical factors of disease in setting ranging from ancient Greece to the modern case of AIDS. A more recent course was based on initially simple models of human population growth and explored how human population dynamics have influenced migration and settlement patterns, was and conquest, resource exploitation, disease, and development pf social and economic systems.

 

A Mathematical Definition System of System Dynamics

Jia Ren’an

Abstract: This essay provides a mathematical definition of the causal diagram and the flow diagram. It also elaborates the idea that the level-rates system is the key to solving the problem in System Dynamics. The essay will make a combination to the knowledge of model conceptualization and formulation and improve modeling practice.

 

System Dynamics Model for A Mixed Strategy Game Between Police and Driver

Dong-Hwan Kim

Doa Kim

Abstract: Game theorists have recommended lots of reasonable strategies for resolving domestic and international policy problems. In general, they use a concept of equilibrium strategy for analyzing dynamic consequences of available policy options in game situations. One of the most famous policy recommendations suggested by game theorists is that of George Tsebelis (1989). He contends that an increase in penalty against law-violation is not a viable policy tool for decreasing the violation tendencies of drivers. That is because the interactions between police and drivers can be best represented as a mixed strategy game in which each player choose their alternative actions with a probability. In a mixed strategy game between police and driver, the probability of driver’s law-violation cannot be decreased by increasing penalty against law-violation. Tsebelis’s suggestion seems to be contradictory to common sense. For most policy makers, an increase in penalty is conceived as one of the most effective tools for policy implementation. In Korea, the increase in penalty have vastly reduced the number of drunken drivers. In many countries, the penalty management is a major policy implementation tool for inducing compliance from the people. Our SD model for a mixed strategy game shows that it takes a very long time for an gametheoretic equilibrium to appear. Therefore, game players cannot and should not depend on the equilibrium state for choosing their actions. Furthermore, our mixed game model shows that an increase in penalty can induce a compliance from the people. Our model shows a behaviors which are contradictory to the game theoretic solution, but consistent to the real world behaviors. We have proposed that these gaps between SD model and a game theory come from the ambiguous conception of equilibrium state and the lack of dynamic and transient behavior analysis in the game theory.

 

A New Approach for Finding Dominant Feedback Loops: Loop By Loop Simulation for Tracking Feedback Loop Gains

Dong-Hwan Kim

Abstract: Traditionally, feedback loops have been analyzed in two ways. First, as in causal loop analysis, the positive or negative relationships between variables are summed up to judge the polarity of feedback loops. This approach can be said as a qualitative method. Second approach for analyzing feedback loops are analytic methods mainly developed for dealing with linear models. For the problems of understanding the behavior of feedback loops, the qualitative methods and analytic approaches give little help to modellers. In this paper, third approach for understanding the behavior of feedback loops are suggested. That is a loop by loop simulation method for tracing the feedback loop gains. First parts of this paper explain the concept of feedback loop gain and the loop simulation method. Second parts of this paper experiment the loop simulation method with two S.D. models; the commodity cycle model which shows equilibrium forces and the two shower model which shows fluctuating system behaviors without external shocks. Last parts of this paper discuss about the dangers of understanding S.D. model with qualitative analysis of causal loops and raise a question on the way of interpreting cyclic or chaotic behavior as shifts in dominant feedback loops.

 

 

Transport Forecasting Based on Artificial Life Concept

Kishi Mitsuo

Hosoda Ryusuke

Yamada Tomoki

Funahashi Hiroki

Abstract: A system dynamics model based on Artificial Life (AL) concept is proposed for transport forecasting. The proposed model focuses on the economic behaviour which emerges out of the interactions among individual local objects, i.e. economic units. That model is merely a large aggregation of simple programs which specify how that local object react in the environment. Application examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model.

 

System Dynamics Model of the Tokyo System

Takahiro Kojima

Yutaka Takahashi

Kinya Machida

Teiichi Igarashi

Abstract: Tokyo and the surrounding region support a huge population. The resulting large number of people who commute to the city centre has necessitated the ongoing construction and maintenance of a vast railway network. Currently transportation form terminal stations to the city centre is provided mainly by Japan Railways’ Ymanote Line, the TRTA and the Tokyo Public Subway. Thirteen lines, including those in only partial operation, comprise the subway system in the downtown area. The TRTA forms the heart of the system with nine lines, while the Tokyo Public Subway is relatively small in scale, with only four lines. The current research project provides the TRTA material for use in developing future management directions by data provided by the TRTA. This paper covers the first phase of this research.

 

Diary of an Oil Market Model: How an Interactive System Dynamics Modeling Process Was Used with Shell Managers t o Resolve Conflict and Generate Insight

David Lane

Abstract: Managers involved in the refining and trading of oil had conflicting views on the relationship between output and cash generation in their market. A day by day account is given of a project in which the market was modelled. The models ostensibly represented the view of the Refining Strategy staff but consultation which other individuals allowed the views of the local Trading department to be represented too. The tools of system dynamics were used to articulate assumptions and to support a ‘dialogue’ in which disagreements regarding macro-behaviour were transformed into debates over specifics relationships. The repeated re-crafting of a STELLA model led to alterations in the interaction. In consequence, the participants aligned behind a single view of the market’s behaviour, as well as admitting to increased respect for the expertise of the other group.

 

 

Building Cognitive Feedback into a Microworld Learning Environment: Results from a Pilot Experiment

Paul A. Langley

Abstract: This experimental study examines how performance and learning in a system dynamics microworld environment may be improved through the provision of online cognitive feedback. Subjects are postgraduate management students at the University of Westminster, London. They participate in the experiment over a two week period, as part of graded assignment. Subjects have to complete a set of six tasks in an Oil Producers microworld, playing the Independents Producers, with a clearly defined performance objective to maximise cumulative net income over a 25 year period. The experimental design includes three different cognitive feedback treatment groups, in addition to a control group which receives no cognitive feedback at all. All groups receive outcome feedback. Treatment groups only have access to the cognitive feedback during the first three trails out of six. Mean subject performance is significantly greater for the treatment groups during the first three trials, but declines to a level comparable with the control group by trial six. Sustainable mean performance improvements are not achieved, but productivity (performance/time taken) does improve significantly by the end of experiment.

 

System Dynamics and The Internet

Nan Lux

Eric Choi

Abstract: As the 21st century approaches, the Internet will be an important resource for system dynamists. This paper will describe the new computer server where a suite of Internet tools are used and maintained at MIT by the System Dynamics in Education Project under the supervision of Professor Jay Forrester. These tools will be available to anyone with an interest in system thinking and system dynamics. This introduction to the field of electronic networking will mention the various methods of connecting to the Internet and touch upon some of the most popular uses of the Internet. We will expand this discussion into how the Internet can be used for the rapid exchange of information. One of the most intriguing capabilities of the server will be the sharing of computer models. These computer simulations can be downloaded, evaluated, modified, and sent back or on to other people. The use of technology will facilitate discussion, debate, and the exchange of ideas. The MIT system dynamics server can be reached through the World Wide Web, FTP, Gopher, and e-mail. Specific detail will be given about how to access the server, and how to use each of its components. Since technology is changing rapidly, future plans for the expansion of the server will be discussed as well. A summary of what papers, models, announcements, and resources are presently available on this system dynamics server will be present. In addition, we will discuss other system dynamics resources available on the Internet, such as servers maintained by the System Dynamics Society and other institutions around the world. The technology transfer that the Internet allows can benefit all those who are interested in the field of system dynamics including model building and sharing of experiences. The Internet is an efficient, often inexpensive means of communication, which can important for the growth of system dynamics in the future.

 

Understanding the Dynamics Created by Management Decisions- A Vensim-based Simulation Approach for Management Education

Frank H. Maier

Abstract: Industrial companies can be characterized as complex and dynamic systems that are only parts of more complex systems. Therefore the purpose of education of business administration student can only be to teach the principles of different functional areas. Management education also has to enhance the understanding of how the different organizational parts of a company interact, how the dynamic consequences of decisions are and how decisions in one functional areas of a company influences other parts. Here the traditional way of teaching in management education fails. Tools are needed that allow (1) to teach the structural fundamentals of companies and (2) to part of the education of students in business administration at the Industrieseminar of the Mannheim Univeristy. The paper discusses a comprehensive model of a company and its interactions to the suppliers, the markets, the competitors and its use in management education. This management simulator is partly based on the model developed and published by Lyneis. Some of the sectors of the original Lyneis model were improved and completed by others that map market dynamics, research and development, and a more detailed representation of competitive structures. Opposed to the Lyneis model which was developed in DYNAMO the management simulator is implemented in VENSIM. Students use this model in the advanced courses of System Dynamics. They analyze the structure of the model, the feedback relations and the management policies that are mapped. They are also forced to seek for better policies in the different functional areas and can test the dynamics created by their new policies. On that basis the understanding of the interactions of the functional parts of a company and the dynamics consequences of decision can be improved.

 

Innovation Diffusion Models for Decision Support in Strategic Management

Frank H. Maier

Abstract: The diffusion of innovations over time is a highly dynamic problem that is influenced by various factors like price, advertising, product quality, competition and among other the time of market entry. The traditional models of innovation diffusion–like the Bass model and the further development on that basis–ignore those factors and the complexity and dynamics underlying the process of diffusion. Usually these models consider only one influencing, but exogenous element, e.g., price of advertising, and seek for strategies to optimize the cumulated profits. Their aim is normative decision supports in the field, but they model, which do not appropriately represent the structural fundamentals of the problems because the methodologies the models are based on are inadequate to build complex and interdependent models. The use of the system dynamic methodology allows the development of more complex models to investigate and analyze the process of innovation diffusion. These models can enhance the insight and the problem structure and increase understanding of the complexity, the dynamics and the impact of the influencing factors. The paper discusses in a systematic view different model types. In the beginning the coarse structure of a model that generates the process of innovation diffusion in monopolistic markets is shown and discussed in detail. It is also described how management policies and the structures of corporate models can be integrated to the model. Further developments of this core model then describe different ways of mapping competition among existing and potential competitors in innovation diffusion models. These models then allow -among other- the analysis of market entry timing, pricing or advertising, and research and development strategies.

 

Missing Links in Quality Initiatives in Australian Manufacturing Industry-A System Dynamics Analysis

Purnendu Mandal

Abstract: This paper emphasises on the question of how quality management initiatives influences business performance with particular emphasis to Australian manufacturing industries. The paper describes the finding of a pilot survey on quality conducted among manufacturing companies in the Geelong region of the Victoria state. The results of the survey have helped in understanding the transient nature of the quality management process. It transpires from the study that the industry managers have limited perception of the quality process. They fail to realise some of the important feedback loops of the quality management system. The paper attempts to identify the missing links and develop a comprehensive (and a more representative) causal model of quality management process.

 

Maintenance Models and System Dynamics

Adolfo Marquez

Rafael Usano

Antonio Herguedas

Abstract: This paper presents a complete study of quantitative models to optimize maintenance decisions in a company. The corrective, preventive maintenance with and without previous test are modeled and implemented for several cases. This is a new contribution within the field of maintenance, introducing the possibilities associated to the utilization of these models as a support for the maintenance planning decision making process.

 

A Model for Learning about the Agricultural Business System

Rosa Melero

Jose A.D. Machuca

Abstract: The aim of our paper is to present a simulation model for training which enables the behaviour of the agricultural business system to be studied in the light if different scenarios and policies. We will show the potential applications of the model developed.

 

Use of System Dynamics Diagrammatic Tools as Representation Schemes for Linear Programming Models

Pratap K.L. Mohapatra

Abstract: The paper suggests that the diagrammatic tools available in the system dynamics methodology are very useful to build external representation schemes for linear programming models. The paper further suggests that these tools can be used for problem conceptualization and model building. An example is cited to demonstrate the power of the system dynamics diagrammatic tools to conceptualize the problem, fix the model boundary, and define the decision variables and the constraints.

 

Development and Maintenance Dynamics of a Software Business Firm

Pratap K.L. Mohapatra

Abstract: This paper demonstrates, in a system dynamics framework, the effects maintenance activities have on development of new software. Buoyant demand, rising backlog of work, increased delivery delay, pressure to increase programming productivity, and consequent rise in the number of defects in the software result in a fall of quality image of the company in the eye of its customers. Falling delivery delay and quality images can reverse the trend of orders. Added to this problem is the fact that the software industry today is experiencing large employee turnover. Hiring new programmers affect both productivity and quality of products. The simulation results display cyclic fluctuation of business over a 12-year period. The policy tests indicate that the policy of hiring experienced staff and of being able to retain them for a considerable length of time gives the best system behavior compared to the other policies.

 

Confusion in the Polarity of Major Loops

Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh

George P. Richardson

Abstract: There is an a priori in the system dynamics paradigm which implies that the behavior of a system is tightly related to its structure. A structure specifies the relationship between the elements of the system in term of stocks and flows and feedback loops. The attempt is to explain the behavior of a system based upon the accumulation in a system and its positive and negative feedback loops. This note introduces the concept of implicit loops or pathways, as components of a major loop, to explain how changes in the behavior of a variable of the system occur over time. The note demonstrates that they presence of a negative loop (explicit or implicit) around a positive loop (explicit or implicit) is necessary in order for a system to oscillate. In particular, in explains how a pure positive major loop can oscillate.

 

Human Service Systems: A Theoretical Perspective

Tom Morgan

Bill Ammentorp

Abstract: In virtually every industrialized nation, the human services constitute the largest economic sector. Exploding costs of these services have driven many national budgets to unimaginable deficits. At the same time, there is an ever-increasing demand for health, education, corrections and other social services. Despite the proportions of this industry, there is little or no theoretical foundation for design and management of service delivery systems. Nor is there a sound conceptual basis on which public policy can be raised. This paper grows out of the increasing similarity among human services in the industrialized countries. All such services are driven by population growth and the dynamics of problem “incidence” and “prevalence”. They are designed to deal with particular “case mixes” of clients through “arrays of service”. The terms in quotations in the previous sentences provide examples of the language the authors use to formulate a general theoretical model of human service systems. The model design is implemented in ITHINK and is identified to human services systems in the United States. Model behavior is analyzed to illustrate general principles of delivery system design policy objectives interact over time. In this way, the model points to important insights which policy markers and human service administrators might consider in their search for solutions to social problems. Although the model in this paper is based on the peculiarities of human services in the United States, the authors make a case for wider applicability. Using health care and education examples from other countries the authors show how major propositions in the general theory are viable in widely differing context. The result is a powerful schema which can guide research, policy making and human service administration.

 

Understanding Strategy of a Manufacturing Based Learning Organization in Transition in the Twenty-First Century

Hamza Musaphir

Ostap Hawaleshka

Abstract: Manufacturing strategy offers a means for integrating operations management decisions and linking them with the firm’s business strategy to attain a competitive position. The goal of this paper is to develop a model using System Thinking which can be utilized to better understand what constitutes manufacturing strategy, and why certain decision choices better mesh and lead to a superior competitive position. The model focuses on understanding linkages among operation management decisions which will include the decision areas of process, materials management, quality, workforce management, and maintenance.

 

Feeding Your Models with Real Business Data

Magne Myrtveit

Abstract: In making models of real world problems or real world processes, the need for transfer of data between model and external files, applications or other devices becomes important. This paper illustrates the use of automatic data transfer in model construction and in process control. In a typical model construction and verification process, real date plays an important role. Once a model is made of the target system, real data is fed into the model, and the model output is compared to the output of the real system. The result of the comparison is used as a basis for refining model structure, model parameters, or both. The Dynamic Data Exchange (DDE) object and the Archive object of POWERSIM may be used in a model to import and export data during simulation. This greatly reduces the amount of work involved in checking model against reality. DDE can also be used to set up a data analysis, for example, by launching a spreadsheet or a statistical program. In combination with the multiple runs feature of POWERSIM, a series of model structures and model parameters can be tested with real data without manual intervention. In a research project aiming at developing a model of the biological process of fish growing in a fish farm, the above tools have allowed for extensive use of data from fish farms in the process of model construction and verification. The basic feedback loop of a process control system, involves measurements (import of data), comparison between measured values and desired values, followed by a controlling action (output of data) aiming at closing the gap between actual and desired process state. The data transfer protocols of POWERSIM make it possible to implement process control systems as POWERSIM models, and linking the models to the physical process. A range of input/output devices for the Windows operating systems supports DDE or Net-DDE, and may therefore be used directly together with POWERSIM.

 

Civil Engineering Design Management Using a Dynamic Model

Stephen Ogunlana

Jason Lim

Khalid Saeed

Abstract: In an attempt to understand the current practices and problems in design projects, a system dynamics model was developed for the management of detailed design process in a civil engineering project. The model took an integrative approach, consisting of four interrelated subsystems: human resources, design production, controlling and planning. Two sets of data were used to initialise and test the model. Some policies and scenarios were then explored to gain insight into the model’s behavior and to seek alternatives for better management. The experiments showed the following policy hierarchy: A) In terms of meeting scheduled times, the effectiveness of policies is in order:(1) progress control, (2) manpower allocation, (3) estimation of workload, and (4) realisation of underestimated work. B) In terms of man-days expended or cost reduction, the effectiveness of policies is the order: (1) manpower allocation, progress control, (3) estimation of workload, and (4) realisation of underestimated work. As such, good estimation of workload is essential but not sufficient to bring the project to finish on schedule. Good project control and early perception of real progress are needed to ensure adequate resource allocation and on-time completion.

 

A Dynamic Comparison of Organizational Design Alternatives

Toshizumni Ohta

Antonio A. Montes

Tadashi Yamamoto

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to explain, in terms of a simple model, the structure of formal organization, and to show how external events can affect their performance. The conceptual viewpoint used to describe the coordination occurring within organizations, is that decision-making theories of organization design, namely, that organizations are information processing systems with problem solving units connected by a communication network. We begin by modeling a basis coordination structure (functional hierarchy), as set of actors (processors and managers) who are connected together by communication lines. Then, queuing models are employed to analyze the execution of tasks by processors and the processing of result by managers. A production function is defined, which considers the average delay for both processors and managers. Then we introduce the concept of environmental uncertainty. We explain how it relates to structures, and how it can affect the organization’s productivity. In order to cope with this uncertainty, we have considered four alternative organizing strategies (Galbraith 1977): (1) creation of slack resources, (2) creation of self-contained tasks, (3) investment in formation systems, and (4) creation of lateral relation. Each of these strategies is applied to the initial coordination structure, and for each we define a production cost equation. In addition to production costs, we also analyze coordination and vulnerability costs. Then, based on these cots we make a comparison of the four strategies, pointing out the trade-offs between them. In conclusion, since we consider management delay time in our model, we are able to explain in more detail the trade-offs between the alternatives strategies.

 

Policy Design and the Problem of Fraud “Some Preliminary Ideas from Considering Fraud as a System Issue”

Terence Palfrey

Abstract: This paper seeks to develop an evaluative framework for further consideration of policy design for government and business concerning the problem of serious economic fraud. Considering a resent UK pensions industry scandal and proposals for reform as an example, it is argued that fraud effects the integrity of financial markets and economic well being of society. It draws out of Traditional System Dynamics, Senge’s Systems Thinking and Soft System Methodology an approach that link real world problem and systemic thinking in order to produce realistic policy initiative. The paper sets systemic thinking towards just outcomes in the context of legal, economic and political constraints, the eventual aim being to develop acceptable fraud prevention and detection policies at national and business levels. This work is at a preliminary stage and is attempting to take account of both logic based and wider socio legal analysis.

 

A General Model to Support Transport Planning

  1. Piatteli

Marta Cuneo

Nicola Bianchi

Nicola Triggiani

Abstract: This paper examines a transportation model which is to be used as a support in planning and whose main requirement is general applicability in terms of both geographical area and user levels. The model treats the transport network as a system of finite elements characterized by a transit delay. These elements are nodes, legs or links, and carries. The model consists of a series of cores, each of which applies to a different commodity. Integration in the network takes place on the legs at carrier level. The elements of each core characterized by both operational and economic performance. The dynamics run on two times scales: day-to-day and year-to -year. The model is implemented by discrete-event, object-oriented languages and provides a scenario for decision-making problems, which are typically approached using System Dynamics methods.

 

Senior Management Standards, Management Development and Systems Thinking

Chris Pierce

Abstract: This paper summarises the research work associated with the development and trialing of the standards of competence, personal competence, and knowledge and understanding for senior management published by Management Charter Initiative in the UK in March 1995. The structure of the standards is described and system thinking archetypes are developed to examine the application of standards for conformance and development purpose.

 

The Global Electronic Community: Modeling the Sociology of Self-Organization

Joan Roca

Bill Ammentorp

Tom Morgan

Abstract: The revolution in telecommunications of the past decade had brought about fundamental changes in the patterns of professional communication. Internet and other electronic networks make it possible for geographically-dispersed individuals to engage in meaningful dialog concerning common problems. These exchanges result in a Global Electronic Community which unique in human experience. This is a community that is truly self-organizing in that it can take on new forms momentarily. Consequently, it is a dynamic community with continually-changing membership and structure; a society populated with both human and electronic agents. It is, as a result, more complex in the roles its members can assume. The sociology of this community is both novel and open to inquiry in depth-in ways never before imagined by students of human society. This paper explores the sociology of the Internet as self-organization system. The Internet is represented as a “electronic landscape” where users and their agents seek collection of relevant information. The “landscape” is defined by the accessibility, connectedness and relevance of data files. As users navigate across this “landscape”, they add both connectedness and relevance. This creates collections of useful information and welds users into Electronic Communities held together by shared models and paradigms. The authors present a System Dynamics model of the prototypic Global Electronic Communitiy. Using the data drawn from Internet file servers, the authors identify the model and show how its structure and behavior conform to the principles of self-organization. Simulation results are used to outline the sociology of such Communities and the implication for professional contributions to sustainable development.

 

A Model of Capital Accumulation, Technological Progress and Long Waves

Alexander Ryzhenkov

Abstract: In line with a previous research (Ryzhenhov 1993), a Goodwin-like model of fluctuating growth is represented by a three-dimensional competitive-co-operative system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In particular, a labour income share enhances a rate of growth of a capital-output ratio. This ratio, in its turn, adversely affects the rate of growth of employment ratio. Under an appropriate constellation of coefficients and control parameters, this model is capable of generating long waves modelled by converging fluctuations in the vicinity of the dynamic equilibrium (steady-state growth path) or by closed orbits in the phase space. The analytical and experimental results seem to provide a new base for the conclusion that no intrinsic (exogenous) clustering of innovations is necessary to produce long period fluctuations of economic activity as the flow of invention and innovation is contingent upon the rate of capital accumulation. It is shown that the model is consistent with the Kaldor prominent stylised facts and the Valtukh information value hypothesis.

 

Growth of Construction Activity in Thailand: Views of the System from Three Vantage Points

Khalid Saeed

Abstract: This paper views three feedback maps of the construction activity in Thailand, development by three experienced modelers as three views of the same problem seen from three vantage points that consider different time frames. The three maps possibly appeared since reference mode for the modeling problem was not explicitly stated, while a wide spectrum of historical data was provided to the modelers. System Dynamics attempts to model processes rather than systems and as such a clear statement of the problem is necessary before a model with a unique structure that corresponds to the stated problem can be formulated.

 

System Dynamics in Engineering Education

Martin Simon

Abstract: System dynamic can play an important role in the education of engineers. On the one hand, students in engineering profit from system dynamics. On the other hand, the system dynamics methodology can be enhanced if we take advantage of the training in physics and mathematics received by the students. It is found that new forms of teaching physics (system physics) support system thinking in a unique way. Advanced courses in engineering disciplines can then build upon modeling and simulation taught early on the curriculum.

 

Modeling Product Life Cycles from Customer Organization

Sonia Skelton

Thomas Lynch

Craig F. Donaldson

M.H. Lyons

Abstract: Increasing competition in markets, rapid advances in technology and changing organisational styles have contributed to a reduction in product life times and development cycles. The telecommunications industry is becoming very complex with a vast array of products and services, many of which are at least partially substitutable for one another. It is becoming increasingly important to have tools which help companies manage their service portfolio. This paper presents an investigation into product life cycles from perspective of customer choice. A simulation model, based on a system dynamics approach, was developed and the impact on market growth of various influences analysed. Results suggest the model may be used to investigate product life cycles and to evaluate and compare commercial strategies. This modelling activity provides a valuable insight into the potential predictability of product life cycles, the amount a telecommunications service provider may influence a product life cycle and the applicability of system dynamical analyses to an organisation’s commercial strategy

 

Order and Disorder in Creative Organizations

  1. Stoyanova

A.O. Moscardini

  1. Elliott
  2. Woodward

Abstract: This paper addressed the survival of an organization in the fight for competitive advantage. A simple model of a non-standard successful organization has been build using System Dynamics which requires definitions of terms such as Quality, Momentum and Inertia. The non-linear nature of this model gives rise to complex behavior which is explored and analysed. It is concluded that for a company to survive in an ever changing environment it is crucial that it the changes as early as possible and responds to them adequately.

 

Limits to Urban Growth and Urbanization- A case study of Bangkok Problem

Orasa Suksawang

Hari Srinivas

Abstract: This paper suggests integrated teaching approaches of System Dynamics methods for socioeconomic analysis, and Geographic Information System for spatial analysis, in examining, evaluating and planning the limits to urban growth and urbanization of city in the course of Urban Planning by taking Bangkok city as a case study. The course if offered for graduate students in the field of Social Sciences at Kasetsart University. Urban Dynamic Model applied in the study includes interactions of population, capital investment of housing, industry and transportation; economic development in terms of gross provincial product and loan interest rates, and land subsystems. The model aims to illustrate problems of shortage and ineffectiveness of City Planning Act which could not control disorderly urbanization and the over supplies of capital investment of housing and industry. Historical patterns of spatial settlements interacting with changes of a socioeconomic behaviour were illustrated. The policy revising the City Planning Act to limit clearly floor area ratio for building construction within the city in relation to land use categories – commercial areas, residential areas, industrial areas – generates the desired urban growth and urbanization.

 

Determination Methods of Rate Variable Using Fuzzy Theories

Eiichiro Takahagi

Abstract: In the real world, most rate variables are determined by human decision makings. However, in the system dynamics (SD) simulation method, a rate variable is often assigned to difference (or a ratio of the difference) between a level variable and its normal level. Practically, most decision makers have some (fuzzy) rules and apply them depending on its situation. If an intermediate situation among the rules occurs, they interpolate the rules. In this paper, to simulate such human decision makings, we study to apply the fuzzy reasoning to determination method rate variables. We discuss the design of fuzzy reasoning for SD in section 3. We show an application of this method using DYNAMO in section 4.

 

Developing Countries Dilemma: Labor Intensive Technology or Capital Intensive Technology?

Muhammad Tasrif

Abstract: It is an accepted view that technological progress is an extremely important – perhaps the most important- determinant in the growth in output per man. In the discussions of the role of technological change in the economy, one of some important questions naturally arise is how does technological change affect different factors. Traditionally, some technological changes are thought of as “labor intensive”, and some as “capital intensive”. Whether the technological change is capital intensive or labor intensive, the most important question for developing countries is how the technological change can be expected to improve their national productivity considerably and continuously. Their economies generally depend on foreign exchange earnings from loan and exports, and from now on, they are facing some constraints in the international market.

 

A Dynamic Model of Labor Market

M.D. Torres

  1. Lechon

Abstract: We present a system dynamic model about labor market. The model is based on four equations mainly: demand and supply for labor, and evolution of prices and wages. To find the supply labor we consider characteristics of the labor market in Spain. The simulation of the model allows us to determine the evolution of variables as demand employment, male and female supply labor, wages, prices, inflation and unemployment rate.

 

Advanced Manufacturing System Dynamics: the Lean Production Approach

Rafael Usano

Adolfo Marquez

Jose Torres

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to present some of the latest advances in manufacturing techniques. With that purpose, different production process patterns are modelled. The models are tested to carry out the experiments and further appropriate analysis for several manufacturing techniques. The techniques under study are known as “CONWIP”, an acronym for Constant Work In Process and the very well known “JIT”, Just In Time. The analysis is focused to obtain a deeper understanding of the Lean Production.

 

Computer Aided Organizational Design

Masaharu Ushijima

Koichi Hori

Setsuo Ohsuga

Abstract: This paper discusses about computer aided organization design by reinforcement learning. In the past days, organizational design is done by the experience and some intuition of corporate planning departments staff or other similar functional department staff. This means there is no expert of specialist for organization design in the corporation. We propose “Computer Aided Organizational design”, here. This organization design system is build on the basis of the Enterprise Model and Corporate Information Structure Model. Organization design is implementing through computer simulation that is done by using actual markets data. This system uses banking business as an example. After implementing dealing for 1 month, the system start to make several monthly financial reports, that is, B/S, Income statement, and Risk Analysis. Organization will be redesigned its initial structure by performance which is indicated in above mentioned reports of each functional team and player’s dealing. According to this designing process, organization (= corporation) gain robust structure, in another word, organization adapts environment change through this process.

 

Object based dynamic modeling

Lars Vavik

Magne Myrtveit

Abstract: This paper reports on collaborative action research partnerships with corporations to develop new tools to accelerate learning, and test these tools in real organization. In the collaborative program “From System Thinking to Praxis” several corporations are facing the challenge of building a virtual model to mirror the companies’ business strategies. These models have to meet a level of functionality which allow managers to compare the output of the model with real data from organization. On the other hand, the models have to be flexible enough to give managers a laboratory for business process redesign. The focus in this paper is on the laboratory as an exploratory learning environment. The work is based both on modelling as a way of learning, and learning from running simulations (management flight simulators). The challenge is to build a bridge between the functionality and the transparency of the model. A combination of the flexibility of the modeling toolkit and the constraints of a simulation applications is needed. The computer based learning environment presented here is based on a state of the art toolkit for constructing system dynamic models (graphical flow diagram, arrays, OLE links, DDE date transfers). To meet the new requirement, major extensions were made to the toolkit in order to allow for concrete object in addition to the general and abstract objects of accumulator-flow diagrams. The resulting system opens up for modeling in terms of objects within the problem area (for example banks, markets, capital, transportation), and at the same time gives the possibility to use the basic blocks (accumulators and flows). A management flight simulator based on high level objects renders the possibilities to change the model structures, not only parameters. The value of a modeling process based on object based dynamic modeling is measured as the probability that a manager will grasp the result from a single analysis and act on it. With the object based dynamic modeling approach we challenge past conclusions that there is a tradeoff between model complexity and the value to the user- a compromise between functionality and transparency.

 

Organizational Flexibility and Learning Organization – Organization of CIMS Enterprise

Qifan Wang

Xianyong Wang

Abstract: By studying the essence and characteristic of CIMS enterprise, the paper discussed organizational flexibility, which corresponds engineering flexibility. Then the structural characteristic of flexible organization is inquired. On the basis of the discussion, the importance of learning organization (LO) is highlighted. The paper points out that organization of CIMS enterprises should be learning organization with high flexibility.

 

Modeling for Study of the Prospect if a Metropolis

Qifan Wang

Jianzhong Yang

Abstract: The study of a metropolis becomes more difficult today since, with the development of the world, a metropolis performs more functions than just as an economic center. It is hardly possible to study the long-term behavior mode of the metropolis by using a single approach. Therefore, the model here uses not only qualitative analysis, but also statistics, econometrics, input/output theory and other quantitative methods, incorporated and integrated in a system dynamics (SD) model. The model can be used to study the limits to the economic growth, the interacts among the different sectors in a complex system, and so on. The modeling framework is very helpful to model the socio-economic-ecological complex system.

 

Coordinated Development of Infrastructure in a Regional Economy

Qifan Wang

Bo Xu

Guoping Yang

Jianzhong Yang

Abstract: 1994 was an infrastructure year name by the World Bank which suggested that all member countries do their best in the investment of their infrastructure. The paper studied the roll of coordinated development of infrastructure in regional economy of a typical area such as Yangtze River Basin of China. The paper studied the following issues: (1) principle of rational layout regional industries, rational allocation of natural resources and coordinated development of infrastructure; (2) analysis of the status and problems of infrastructure in the region; (3) modelling and policy testing for analyzing the coordinated development of infrastructure; (4) the impact of coordinated development of infrastructure on regional economy. Based on theories of system dynamics (SD), urban dynamic, input-output and economics, we created a series of model simulating and policy testing, we put forward some suggestion in coordinated development of infrastructure to the regional economy and especially to Yangtze River Basin.

 

Decision Analysis Using Dynamic Simulation

Eric F. Wolstenholme

Abstract: This paper describes work to contrast the use of decision analysis and system dynamics simulation in the field of pharmacoeconomics. The importance of economic outcomes to supports the clinical evaluation of pharmaceutical drugs is growing in importance as public health service resources are constrained and clinical trial data support by decision analysis has become the established mode of evaluation. This paper describes research carried out with a major drug company to investigate alternative pharmacoeconomics drug evaluation procedures, in particular the use of dynamic simulation methods. An evaluation methodology based on these principles is presented here and applied to a disease management case study to contrast the analysis with decision analysis. The conclusion of the work to date is that decision analysis can be considered a special case of dynamic simulation and that the latter technique using ‘ithink’ has a large potential for providing transparent, economic analysis of the potential benefits of new drugs at the research and development stage.

 

A System Dynamics Approach to Regional Impact of the Construction of a  Submerged Floating Tunnel

Etsuo Yamamura

Seiichi Kagaya

Abstract: This study aims to examine the regional impacts of the construction of a long submerged floating tunnel across the bay. This study has been motivated by the apparent scant data and research works on the likely regional consequences of such a large-scale project (Alex 1989; Thirumurthy 1987). The main concern is with the department of techniques to predict likely regional impacts. The main premise is that the construction of submerged floating tunnel across the bay will result in changes may initially affect the immediate surroundings of the project site but eventually they are likely to have widespread effect. Ideally, these changes may be advantageous to some organism but disadvantages to others. From this view-point, we purpose an System Dynamic Model for the regional impacts. The actual simulation is examined using the example of the Volcanic Bay of Hokkaido in northern Japan.

 

The Use of Metaphor within a Soft System Intervention, A Fairy Story as an ‘Alternative Rich Picture’

Jane A.O. Young

Abstract: This paper presents the case study of a management information system which is seen in some parts of the organisation it serves, as problematic. This was the typical trigger for a soft systems approach intervention. The research for the case study provided an important methodological insight, which is equally relevant to other systems thinking; the perceived need to find a novel communication method to overcome management resistance. A major cause of conflict, had been the attempted use f data flow diagrams as a communications device with senior management. The blow to managerial pride this techno-speak presentation has caused, left deep and enduring scars which might best be thought of as negative appreciative settings (after Vickers). Such is the antipathy that in some minds, the system had almost become the ‘scapegoat’ for any problems in this part of the organisation. Yet there was a very clear organisational need for the system to be used satisfactorily. During the intervention a rich picture, in the style of a data flow diagram, was constructed once more as a communications devices, for use with technical specialists. This had limited success, even to those familiar with complex diagramming techniques, unfamiliar symbols and conventions were seen as problematic. This can be equally true where influence diagrams and ‘ithink’ type diagrams are to be used. This reinforced the view that often the real value of rich pictures lies in the process of their production, rather than the end product. Yet the question of how to communicate and share perceptions with both sides still remained. Ideas from Morgan’s ‘Indigenization’ led to perceptions of the situation resembling a mythical kingdom and the idea of a fairy story as an alternative rich picture, or a ‘management toy’ (after De Geus), perhaps from this, a novel means of communication is possible. The story does not have an ending – happy or otherwise, that will be added by the participants in the experiment. If it causes some learning in those involved in the situation, it will have been a success. Children use fairy stories to learn about the world – why should managers not use them to help make the transition into successful systems thinking about the world?

 

Soft Landing into the 21st Century – Cultural Gap or Cultural Trap

Jane A.O. Young

Abstract: The so-called ‘culture gap’, between information systems professionals and organisational management, is often cited as, either a reason for system failure, or the cause of lack of perceived success. This paper presents the view that organizations get the systems they deserve, since information professionals in an organisation are no more able to buck the prevailing organisation ‘culture’, than any other professional. This leads to the thinking that is not so much a ‘culture gap’ as ‘culture trap’, suggesting that top management need to be considering the organisational culture which impact upon change, if success with organizational information systems is to be improved. This matter has been become one of considerable concern as organizations seek to reengineer their business processes, using the power of information systems. The case study which prompted the thinking is presented. The associated research was undertaken using action research with a soft systems approach, which itself prompted some useful learning. A method of extending the use of rich pictures as a means of developing influence diagrams is suggested. The aim being a ‘rich’ but ‘soft’ qualitative SD model.

 

Designing the Learning Environment of Learning Laboratory: Cognitive Strategy, Learning and Transfer

Showing H. Young

Sy-Feng Wang

Abstract: The problems of video game syndrome has been an obstacle to prove the value of Management Flight Simulators. This paper proposed a theoretical perspective of cognitive strategy to explain this phenomenon: that is, due to the reasons of (1) rational allocation of limited cognitive resources, (2) passive generation alternative methods when failed, (3) faulty mental model to represent the dynamic complexity, the cognitive strategies used by subjects, e.g., feedback control, feedforward control and memory control, are different from the cognitive strategy of mental model simulation expected by researchers. Task salience and transfer-oriented task setting were manipulated to facilitate learning with provoking the appropriate cognitive strategy. The effects of these two learning aids are tested by one laboratory experiment, and tested by multiple index with multiple measurement methods. Experimental results support the proposed theoretical perspective. The mental model simulation strategy seems not the natural cognitive strategy used by subjects. The learning aids had significant positive effects on inducing the cognitive strategy of mental model simulation,  on the learning of cognitive skill of systems thinking, on the improvement of task’s performance, and on the transfer performance in two transfer tasks.

 

A Study of Business Competition from a System Dynamics Perspective

Showing H. Young

Chia Chen

Abstract: Literature on competitiveness is numerous. In the field of business administration, strategic management and marketing management focus on how to compete in the markets. This paper begins with a review on the development of key concepts in strategic management.  Next, an interpretation from the view of systems thinking on the concept of the experience curve and resource-based view of the company will be provided and made into casual-loops diagrams. Then, with system dynamics simulation methods, there will be quantified studies on the pattern of behavior occur in those casual-loops structures. Finally, based upon these findings and observations, suggestions for strategy will be discussed.

 

A System Dynamic approach to the Hospital Nurse Turnover Problem in Taiwan

Showing H. Young

Lih-Lian Hwang

Abstract: The average nurse turnover rate in Taiwan’s hospitals was 31.56% in 1988. High turnover rate has a detrimental effect on costs, staff morale, and patient care. Nursing staff turnover is a critical personnel problem for nursing administrators and top hospital management. In order to understand the underlying dynamic structure which causes such a high turnover rate of hospital nurses in Taiwan, we developed a system dynamics model. The results of computer simulation showed that the key solution to the hospital nurse turnover is not a quick-fix, but rather a long- term committed and supportive hospital administration to make improving in the nursing working conditions.

 

Problems of Population Control in China

Jia-di Yu

Xiu-jin Feng

Abstract: Population is an element in the social system. There are a number of elements in the social system which will influence the population growth rate. On the other hand, population growth will, in turn, exert influence on other social elements. We can, therefore, apply the system dynamics (SD) model to dealing with the problems of population control. The paper, based on the investigations carried out in Anhui Province of China, conducts a study of the policies concerning population control in China by use of the system dynamics model.

 

A System Dynamics Approach to Analyze the Effect of High Set Up Time of Machines on Marketing Growth: The Case of Packages LTD. Pakistan

Ijaz Yusuf

Khalid Saeed

Abstract: This study aims at exploring the polices for the order arrival rate from decision making bodies in order to smooth down the activities of production by lowering the set up time of machines. The impact of scheduling techniques is examined and production and market operations are observed carefully in order to solve the problem of reduced proportion of machine running time. Everything seems to be okey but the proportion of machine running time has the declining trend. Especially, the production and market operations are considered with the positive and negative feedback loops that influence the proportion of machine running time. Ultimately, the decision is made to solve the problem by the construction of formal System Dynamics Model to analyze the interaction of different components of the company. The model provides a detailed, integrated framework among separate facets of the issue addressed representing the past behavior of the production sector. Experimentation with the model attempts to identify the appropriate policies concerning proportion of machine running time.

 

The CC-STADUS Project: Developing and Nurturing a Cadre of Pre-College Teachers Using System Dynamics/Computer Modeling in the Classroom

Ronald J. Zaraza

Abstract: The CC- STADUS project has trained more than eighty pre- college science, mathematics and social science teachers in the basics of computer modeling and system dynamics. In the process of teaching these teachers to build single content area and cross- curricular models, the project has experience some major successes and a variety of problems. More than twenty- five major cross- curricular models and many more single discipline models have been developed by the participants, working both individually and in teams. The training which was provided has evolved continuously in response to feedback from the teachers and formal evaluation. Most major difficulties were eliminated in the second year, allowing consideration of other less obvious problems. The third and final year of the program includes substantial revisions in the focus of the initial training, topics presented by guest speakers, the formation of modeling teams, and the amount of time dedicated to construction of cross- curricular models. Similar changes have been planned for the assessment and support of participants in the year following the training. Consideration of the successes and problems encountered by the CC-STADUS staff can provide valuable insights to those attempting training of pre-college teachers in modeling or system dynamics. A variety of key factors have been identified that can enhance the effectiveness of the training and the subsequent support provided during the academic year.

 

A New Discourse on Technology Transfer

Decong Zeng

Changrong Zhong

Abstract: In the contemporary era, the subjects of technology transfer (e.g. a nation or an enterprise) exist as a non- linear open system of disequilibrium. However, while we step into the 21st century, the environment in which the said system operated will take place great changes. There are some new features emerged from technology transfer and it will encounter with a range of new problems. The traditional theories guiding technology transfer will have met lots of challenges. This paper brings forward a new theory that is adaptable to need of the new century. In this paper, we view the opportunity as its core.

1994 Proceedings – Stirling, Scotland

The 12th International Conference

of the System Dynamics Society

1994 – Stirling, Scotland

The following papers were presented at the conference in parallel and plenary sessions. The original printed proceedings, edited by Clare Monaghan and Eric Wolstenholme, were printed in hardcopy and distributed at the conference. Below please find the Paper Index for these proceedings, including a link to the paper when available. Papers are listed alphabetically by the last name of the first author. To find a paper by an author who is not the first author, simply search on the author’s name. Available papers are Acrobat (.pdf) files and can be read using Acrobat Reader available from adobe.com.

PAPER INDEX – listed alphabetically by first author:

Ackermann, Fran with Terry M. Williams, Colin Eden, Andrew J. Tate    Using Cognitive Mapping to Develop a Large System Dynamics Model

Akkermans, Henk with Jacqueline Bosker       Design Guidelines for Participative Business Modelling

Allaway, Arthur W. with Giles D’Sousa    Feedback and Control in a Product Portfolio Management Model

Alm, Irma     Managerial Conflicts in Social System: The Ignored Significance of Ethics and Values

Anderson, David F. with George P. Richardson    Scripts for GroupsModel Building

Anderson, David F. with Terrence A. Maxwell, George P. Richardson, Thomas R. Stewart    Mental Models and Dynamic Decision Making in a Simulation of Welfare Reform

Andrade, Hugo S. with Alvaro Ramirez G, Ana C. Uloa Q, Sofia Uloa Q    System Dynamics applied to Analysis Modeling and Simulation of Chain Growth Polymerization Process

Antunes, Paula with Rui Santos, Luis Jordao, Helder Alves, Joao Pedro Rodrigigues     ECOMAN – An Environmental Management Simulation Game

Bajpai, A. K. with P. C. T. Willey     A Dynamic Model of Quality Cost and Benefits Systems for Design Quality

Barlas, Yaman     Defining System Dynamics Education

Barlas, Yaman    Model Validation in System Dynamics

Bar-Nahor, Ronen with Chanoch Jacobsen    Introducing MIS: A Process of Directed Organization Change

Barnes, Jeremy with Fraser Burton, Ian Hawker, Michael H Lyons     Scenario Modeling of Demand for Future Telecommunications Services

Barrett, M. A. with B. Crellin     Illusion and Reality: A Systemic Approach to Management Development Workshops.

Barton, John     The Management of Urban Water Services – A study in Long – Term Institutional Dynamics

Baugh, P. J. with D. M. Walters    The Introduction of Hospital Information System – The Necessity for Accommodation

Bell, G. A. with J. O. Jenkins     Investigation Software project Resource Planning: An outline of a Proposed Multiple Case Study Research Approach

Bentham, J. B. with A. G. de Visscher     Systems Thinking and its Influence on Operational Culture

Bernstien, Dan S.     Dynamics of New York City Court System

Bernstien, Dan S. with George P. Richardson, Thomas R Stewarts    A Pocket Model of Global Warming for Policy and Scientific Debate

Bisht, B. S. with K. C. Sahu, K. Vizayakumar     A System Dynamics Model of Soybean Production in India

Breiter, Andres with Edoardo Mollona     Dynamics of Management Development and Enterprise In Eastern Europe

Brocklesby, John    Strategic Cultural Interventions in Systems Science – Examining the Prospects for the Further Development of Methodological Complementarism

Byrne, S. J. with L. Roberts    Efficient Parts Supply: Influence of Information Flows

Chung, IK Jae with Dong Hwan Kim     The Paradox of Rational Policies and Irrational Outcomes: A Case of Unexpected Policy Performance Caused by Information Delay

Cooper, J. F. S. with J O Chester, R Y Cavana    A Policy Making Framework for the New Zealand Wine Industry

Corben, David A.    Integrating Archetypes and Generic Models into a Framework for Model Conceptualisation

Crespo Marques, Adolfo with Ruiz Usano    Learning Maintenance Management through System Dynamics: A Continuous Improvement Process

Dangerfield, Brain with Carole Roberts    Projecting Model Behavior in the Absence of a Model: Results of a survey

Davidsen, Pal    Perspectives on Teaching System Dynamics: Coupling structure and behavior, annotating simulations, and supporting Just In Time Open Learning (JITOL)

Davidsen, Pal with Magne Myrtveit    Der Rutli Management Simulator – a new concept in system dynamics based management fight simulators

Davidsen, Pal   Possibilities and Challenges for System Dynamics Research and Education in Europe

Davis, Andrew    The Applications of System Dynamics to Re-Engineering Career Plans

Deakins, Eric with Graham Winch    Helping Not-for-Profit Enterprises Become More “Business-Like”: A Learning Organization Approach

Demay, Thierry with Christian de Cock    Information, System, Hence, Information System: The case for Ontological and Epistemological “depth”

Dhillon, Gurpreet with James Backhouse    Responsibility Analysis: A Basis for Understanding Complex Managerial Situations

Di Stefano, Julia M.    Feedback and Breakdowns as Breakthroughs in Dyadic Communications

Doman, Andrew with Maurice Glucksman, Nathaniel Mass, Michael Sasportes    The Dynamics of Managing a Life Insurance Company

Donhoff, Hans-Ulrich    Systems for Modeling and Simulating in Schools 

Drew, Donald R.    Modeling Infrastructure Induced Development at National and Regional Levels

Dyner, Isaac with Antonio Quintero    A System Dynamics Model to Evaluate Policies on Institutional Decentralization and Community Participation 

Evans, G. N. with M. M. Naim    The Dynamics of Capacity Constrained Supply Chains

Fisher, Diana M.    Teaching System Dynamics to Teachers and Students in 8-12 Environment 

Frances, Carol with Marshall Van Alstyne, Art Ashton, Thomas Hochstettler    Using System Dynamics Technology to Improve Planning and Budgeting for Higher Education: Results in Arizona and Houston, Texas

Garlick, F. J. with W. Wynn    An Archetype for Holistic Problem solving 

Gelvez Pinto, Lilia. N. with Zandy C. Muskus M., Hugo H. Andrade S., Gerardo Munoz M.    Mathematical Simulation Model for the Study of the Transmission Dynamics of the Leishmaniasis Under a Systemic Approach 

Genta, Peter J. with David P. Kreutzer, Gregg Anderson, Rusty Hinote, Williams C. Hood, Kim McMillan    How to Use System Dynamic to Create Your Own Future: A Case Study of Worldwide Oil and Gas Exploration Group 

Georgantzas, Nicholas C. with Amy Hamilton, Nancy Drobnis    Implementing AACSB Standards Through Feedback-Loop Planning

Georgantzas, Nicholas C. with Philip A. Schmid, Mark D. Walton    Intermediate Structure Economic Dynamics: The Television Industry 

Glass-Husain, William    Lessons for System Dynamics Mentors in Schools 

Greenman, J. V.    The Price of Oil: A System Dynamic Approach 

Grossmann, Martin    The Management of Innovation in International Corporations as a Dynamic Process of Organizational Learning 

Gulledge, Thomas with Henry Neimeier    Functional Economic Analysis of Purchasing at MITRE 

Roger I Hall    Organizational Learning and Adapting Trajectories Found in a System Dynamic Based Business Game 

Henden, Kjell    System Dynamics Underwood 

Hennessy, Gregory    Competitive Simulations: Introducing Corporations to Organizational Learning

Heyne, Gerton with Jac L. Geurts, Juliette Vermaas    DIAGNOST; A Microworld in the Healthcare for Elderly People 

Hines, James H. with Dewey W. Johnson    Launching System Dynamics 

Hobbs, Geoffrey D. with Bryan R. Deane    Modeling the Constraints on the Global Pharmaceutical Industry 

Hocking, Alan C. with Peng Sea Lee    Systems Thinking and Business Process Re-design: A Case for Combining Techniques 

Hodgson, Anthony M. with Gary B. Chicoine-Piper, Nela Chicoine-Piper    Requisite Cognitive Skills for Decisions about Systems 

Holmes, R. K.    The Use of Influence Diagrams in Formulating an IT Strategy for Retailers 

Holtham, Clive    Developing a Business Flight Simulator for Learning Organizations 

Hutchinson, W.   The Concept of Waste and its Use in Information System Design 

Jambekar, Anil B.    Frameworks for Integration of Systems Thinking in Quality Management Practices 

Jambekar, Anil B.    System Dynamics Analysis of Experience Gained During Personal Quality Improvement Projects 

Jijin, Geng    A Grey Simulated Model for Urban Strategy Planning on SocioEconomyEnvironmentR&D 

Keogh, W.    Total Quality Management – Managing Change in Manufacturing: Contrasting the Problem Solving Approach Employed in a Quality Cost Related Initiative with Soft System Methodology 

Kim, Dong Hwan with IK Jae Chang    Neural Network Heuristics for Controlling System Dynamics Model 

Knol, O. M.    System Dynamics Concepts Applied to the Development and Quality Assurance of Environmental Information Systems 

Konis, Costas Y.    A Soft Systems Management Approach to Energy and Conservation for the Hotel Industry of Cyprus 

Kreutzer, W. Brain with David P. Kreutzer    Applying the principles of Human Computer Interaction to the Design of Management Flight Simulators 

La Roche, U.    A Basic Business Loop as Starting Template for Customized Business-Process-Engineering Models 

La Roche, U.    Is there a Cause-Effect Relationship Between Unemployment and Taxation Level?

Lane, David C.    Social Theory and System Dynamics Practice

Lane, David C. with Rogelio Oliva    The Greater Whole Towards a Synthesis of SD and SSM

Lane, David C. with Jonathan Rosenhead    Only Connect! Part I: An annotated Selection from the Literature on the Problem Structuring Methods of ‘Soft’ Operational Research

Lane, David C. with Mike C Jackson    Only Connect! Part II: An annotated Selection from the Literature on the Breadth and Scope of Systems Thinking

Lane, David C. with Chris Smart    Mad, Bad and Dangerous To Know? The evolution and limitation of the ‘generic structure’ concept in system dynamics

Langley, Paul A. with Erik R. Larsen    I Can’t Believe It’s a System Dynamics Model! 

Larsen, Erik R. with Derek W. Bunn    Modeling Electricity Privatization in the UK 

Le Peutrec, Stephane with Michele Courant    Living Systems Dynamics: A New Approach for Knowledge Representation 

Linard, Keith T.    From Task To Goal Orientation   Changing the Culture of Public Sector Agencies A System Dynamics Approach 

Lewis, Edward    The Use of the SaGa Tool for Scenario-Based Planning

Lewis, Llewellyn B.    The use of iThink in Scenario Planning in the Building Industry In South Africa 

Ludwig, Michel with Michele Courant    Modeling Interactions Between Autonomous Agents 

Tom Lynch, Sonia Skelton, Michael H. Lyons    Strategic Analysis of Global Telecoms Service Provision 

Lyneis, James M.    Tactical vs. Strategic Approached to Competitive Positioning – An Example from the Telecommunications Industry 

Lyneis, James M. with Carl G. Bespolka, Ben Tucker    Preparing for a Competitive Environment – The Prospects for American’s Electricity Utilities 

Mahanty, Biswajit with Pratap K. J. Mohapatra    Evaluating Optimization Model Based Decision Support Systems in the Framework of a system Dynamics Based Game 

Maier, Frank H.    Integration of Knowledge-Based Systems and System Dynamics Models for Decision Support in Innovation Management 

Mantel, Rolf R. with Juan C. Rego, Pedro Goyena    Optimal Control Modeling with Vensim: Applications to Public Finance 

Marshall, Norman L. with Stephan J. C. Lawe    A Comparison of Regional Models Using Different Levels of Geographic Aggregations 

Mashayekhi, Ali N.    A Conventional Versus a System Dynamics Approach to Planning 

Milling, Peter M. with Frank Lehmann    Management Games for Group Decision Making in a Dynamic Environment 

Moffatt, Ian    Extending System Dynamics for Environmental Research and Management

Moizer, Jonathan D.     Safety Hazard Control in the Workplace: A Dynamic Model 

Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad T.    Management of Fiscal and Monetary Policy (The Case of Developing Countries) 

Morecroft, John D. W. with Erik R. Larsen, Alessandro Lomi, Ari Ginsberg    To Shower or Not to Shower: A Behavioural Model of Competition of Shared Resources 

Thomas F Morgan, William M Ammentorp    Qualitative Analysis of Financial Models

Michael Morrison, Fern Marriott     In Search Of Learning Organization Within the Australian Hotel Industry 

Mould, G. I.    Short Term Manpower Planning: Time Basic Simulations vs Systems Dynamics Approach 

Mutuc, Jose Edgar S.    Investigating the Dynamics of Employee Participation 

Myrtveit, Mangne    Powerful Modeling Using Array Variables 

Naim, N. M. with D. R. Towill    System Dynamics and Learning Curves 

Nash, Allen    A System Based Methodology for Industry-Level Analysis 

Neimeier, Henry    Analytic Queuing Network 

Neimeier, Henry    Analytic Uncertainty Modeling 

Neimeier, Henry    Dynamics Software Life cycle Model 

Neimeier, Henry     Performance Evaluations Gradient 

Neimeier, Henry    Performance Evaluation Surface 

Neimeier, Henry     System Dynamics Model of the Standards Development Process 

Niu, Huien with Allan A. Gillard     Using System Dynamics Simulations Model to forecast Long-Term Urban Water Demand 

Nuthmann, Conrad F.    The Public School System: A Dynamic Model of Community Standards, Students, Teachers, and Resources 

O’Brian, Patrick J.     Job Opportunity. Wanted: Multi-Skilled Technicians to Join a Six-Person Production Team Operating Highly Automated Equipment. Immediately

Ochs, Martin R.     System Dynamics as a Tool to Advance Organizational Learning 

Oliva, Rogelio    Managerial Learning Laboratories: An Action Research Project for Group Learning 

Piattelli, Mauro with Nicola Bianchi, Marta Cuneo    A Model for the Polis, the Ancient City-State 

Polat, Seckin with Halulk Erkut     A Dynamic and Integrative Model for Detecting Strategic Changes in Efficiency and Effectiveness of an Industrial Company 

Probert, Stephen K.     The Epistemological Assumptions of the (Main) Soft System Methodology Advocates 

Quanjel, Marcel M. H. with Ivo Wenzler     Innovations in Conceptual Modeling 

Ren’an, Jia     A Study of Output Curve Intersections in the Case of Delay i (i=1,2,3, …) 

Repenning, Nelson P.    Modeling the Unanticipated Side Effects of Successful Quality and Productivity Improvement Programs 

Rich, Martin     Business Simulations and the Role of the Manager

Richardson, George P. with David F. Andersen, Terrence A. Maxwell, Thomas R. Stewart     Foundations of Mental Model Research 

Ritchie-Dunham, James L.     System Dynamics of Petroleum Development Training for Long-Term Cooperation Across Cultural Divides 

Rodrigues, Alexandre     The Role of System Dynamics in Project Management: A Comparative Analysis with Traditional Models 

Roy, Santanu with Pratap K. J. Mohapatra     Study of Work Climate in R&D Organizations: A System Dynamics Approach 

Rufat-Latre, Jorge    Strategy and Systems Thinking Though Dynamics Storytelling 

Ruiz, A. with Jose A. D. Machuca, Miguel A. D. Machuca    Utilization of System Dynamics for Comparing Traditional and O.P.T Production Systems 

Ryan, Tom     A Framework for Problem Solving Using Dynamics Modeling with a Japanese Management Technique

Ryzhenkov, Alexander     Bargaining Delays in a Macroeconomic Context 

Saeed, Khalid with Ponthep Prankprakma     Technological Development in a Dual Economy: Alternative Policy Levers for Economic Development

Schecker, Horst P.      System Dynamics in High School Physics

Scholl, Greg J.     Results of the 1993 System Dynamics Society Benchmarking Study 

Schwandt, David R.    Organizational Learning as a Dynamics Sociological Construct: Theory and Research 

Sedehi, Hebib with Ugo Biader Ceipidor, Lidia D’Alessio, Chiara Ronconi    System Dynamics for Budget Planning and Management Control 

Shimada, Toshiro with Takahiro Kojima, Koichiro Okumura, Kinya Machida, Akira Uchino     Number of Surviving Teeth for Japanese Age Groups 

Sholtes, Robert M.    Optimizing System Behavior using Genetic Algorithms 

Sliwa, Kazimierz Roman    Dynamics of Organizational Learning, An Axiomatic and Model Approach

Sliwa, Kazimierz Roman    Solid Waste Management in Puebla. A system Dynamics Approach 

Smith, Ricardo with Gloria E. Pena, Isaac Dyner, Juan C. Suarez    System Dynamics Modeling of Energy Consumptions in the Colombian Industrial Nation 

Sotaquira G, Ricardo with Jorge H. Panqueva, Hugo H. Andrade S.    A System Approach for estimating Corrosion Incidence to the Economy of a Nation 

Stoyanova, P . with R. Woodward, M. Elliott, A. O. Moscardini    Using a System Dynamics Approach as a Tool for Enhanced Company Performance Through Developing the Imagination Models of Managers 

Strohhecker, Juergen    Modeling the Diffusion of Innovations Based on Individuals Adoption Decisions 

Strumpfer, Johan with Tom Ryan    Experiences in Teaching System Thinking 

Stumpf, Stephan A. with Mary Anne Watson, Hemant Rustogi    Leadership in a Global Village: Creating Practice Fields to Develop Learning Organizations 

Stuntz, Lees N.    Systems Educations for Kindergarten Through Twelfth Grade in the United States: A view from the Creative Learning Exchange 

Taket, Ann with Leroy White    Beyond Solution: A Re-Presentation for the “New Times” 

Thiel, Daniel    System Dynamics in Educational Science: An Experience of Teaching Production-Distributions Mental ModelsBuilding 

Thurlby, R. K. with J. O. Chang    The Applications of System Dynamics to Re-Engineering of Value Processes 

Todoroki, Tomoyuki with Yoshio Hanzawa, Atsushi Fukuda    Simulations Model for Policy Analysis on Multi-Airport System in Metropolitan Region 

Towill, Denis R.    “1961 and all that: The influence of Jay Forrester and John Burbidge on the Design of Modern manufacturing Systems” 

Van Ackere, Ann    A Systems Thinking Approach to Analyze the Waitinglist Phenomenon 

Vennix, Jac A. M.    Building Consensus in Strategic Decision-Making: Insights from the process Group Model-Building 

Vriens, D. with E. Philips    A Systemic Account of Learning Organizations: Defining the Learning Capabilities of Organizations 

Wang, Qifan with Wang Huihua, Jin Yin, Wang Xianyong    A Promising Way of Revamping the State-Owned Enterprises In China 

Wang, Qifan    The Development of Shanghai in 2010 

Weil,Henry Birdsye with Leon S. White    Business Transformation: The Key to long-term survival and success 

Warren, Kim    Simulating the Effects of Regulatory Change in the UK Pubs Industry 

Wheeler, Frederick P.    How to get Managers to Use System Dynamics 

White, Leroy with Tony Ackroyd, Michelle Blackeborough    Learning about Modelling for Learning 

Wing, Phillip with Mark Maloney    Managing Information Technology Investments – The Application of a Dynamic System Approach

Wolff, Rolf with Olof Zaring    Organisational Learning – The creation of ecological minds in organisations 

Wolstenholme, Eric    Developing a Balanced View of Management Ecology 

Xu, Qingrui with Jin Chen, Shaoxia Chan, Jie Han    System Dynamics Modeling of National Policy: Case of Environment Conservation Input in China 

Young, Mike with Robert Bailey    Modeling Defense: A Challenge to System Dynamics 

Young, Showing H. with Sy-Feng Wang, Jenshou Yang    Overcoming the Learning Barriers of Management Flight Simulators: Task Salience and the Dissociation between Performance and Learning 

Youngdahl, William E. with Russell W. Wright, Lillian C. Wright    The House of Quality Within a Knowledge-Based View of Firm

CONFERENCE ABSTRACTS

Using Cognitive Mapping to Develop a Large System Dynamics Model

Fran Ackermann, Terry M. Williams, Colin Eden, Andrew J. Tate

This paper describes the use of System Dynamics (SD) for making a claim for Disruption and Delay.  The case concerns design management of a large development project.  Extensive group workshops (GDSS) with the managers, based on the cognitive mapping technique and association software tope COPE, showed that the client-contractor interaction process had set up dynamic feedback loops creating Disruption and Delay to the project.  In order to qualify the extent of the Disruption and Delay, the cognitive map was transformed into an “influence diagram” and thence through the acquisition of numeric data into a large SD model.  The development of the two continued in parallel, informing and checking one another.  As well as simply providing explanations of trends and behavior, the SD model had to reproduce the planned and actual out-turns explicitly for it to be a creditable explanatory tool.  The paper will draw lessons from the case study on the process of moving from cognitive map to a SD model, and the mutual benefits of joint development, as well as more general lessons about combining soft and hard methods.

Design Guidelines for Participative Business Modelling

Henk Akkermans, Jacqueline Bosker

This paper describes the evaluations results from an unsuccessful case study.  In this case study, system dynamics modeling was used to support the development of an implementation plan for a corporate strategy.  Three modeling sessions were conducted with senior management, which were unsuccessful.  A detailed analysis of the evaluations interviews with several of the participants had identified the main cause for this failure.  These causes turn out to be threefold:  Firstly, most of the participants were unwilling to discuss openly this politically sensitive issue, secondly several errors were made in project design and thirdly the scope of the strategic issue is at stake was too broad to tackle effectively within the time frame allotted to the project.

Several important lessons are drawn from this project.  These lessons are formulated as designs guidelines for future system dynamics modeling as such, but rather to underlying management consulting skills required to conduct any strategy support project with senior managers.

Feedback and Control in a Product Portfolio Management Model

Arthur W. Allaway, Giles D’Sousa

An optimal control-based decisions support model is developed which allows managers and future managers to gain hand-on experience with product portfolio management in a dynamic micro-world.  In this micro-world, they study one of the several scenarios, set objects and importance hierarchies, create action plans and control the system over time en route to their objectives.  The system is demonstrated with data from an actual product portfolio management case.

Using the system, a manager or player can gain sophistication with decision-making as well as assess the capabilities of dynamic models for decisions support.  Working with the models gives players a feel for such important insights, as the lag effects of response, the differential impact of various marketing tools, cross-elasticities, and the potential for cannibalization. A manager can devise promotional strategies to achieve specific sales results for a particular brand or product line, test those strategies, and learn as the system evolves.  Backing up the micro-environment is a discrete-time optimal control model which allows the system to be optimized from the perspective of a decision-maker.  Players can test their own strategies against those of the optimal control “Shadow Player”.

Used as an optimization-based simulations tool, the model allows flexibility in the testing of alternative strategies and scenarios which affect achievement of product portfolio objects.  The model focuses on the overall objectives of the portfolio while recognizing the objectives and dynamics of the products within it.

Managerial Conflicts in Social System: The Ignored Significance of Ethics and Values

Irma Alm

A social system is unlike a natural system, because its behavior is determined by ethics, values and purposes.  Yet it can be compared to a natural system in terms of self-maintenance.  To maintain itself, a social system reproduces roles, functions and authorities, not it’s basic components, individuals.  This is because, social system are purposely designed by human begins for human purposes. The ethics which guides management of social system is a kind of rule ethics relying on rules of behavior, laws, and taboos.  The rule ethics and its basic value, rational calculation, disables the possibility of social system to cope with rapid or serve environmental changes. It also creates managerial conflicts which are difficult to solve within the frame of reference of the rule ethics and its association values. These conflicts are results of the tension between: control and semiotic freedom, shared culture and diversity, and command hierarchy and self-organization. To diminish these tensions, we need another kind of ethics, an increased development of human consciousness.

Scripts for Groups Model Building

David F. Anderson, George P. Richardson

For the past seven years, the modeling group at the University at Albany has been experimenting with techniques for building system dynamics models directly with groups.  This paper extends the previously reported work by discussing specifics scripted techniques used to implement the group modeling building approach. 

Our purpose is to initiate a larger discussion of shared scripts and techniques for group model building.  The discussions is divided into planning for a group model building conference, scheduling the day, particular scripts and techniques for various group model building tasks, and closing a group modeling conference. 

Mental Models and Dynamic Decision Making in a Simulation of Welfare Reform

David F. Anderson, Terrence A. Maxwell, George P. Richardson, Thomas R. Stewart

This paper is the second in a pair presented in this volume. The first paper presents a theoretical view of mental models appropriate for carrying out empirically-based research on system dynamics modeling interventions. Mental models consist of three types of measurable sub-models – end models, means models, and means-ends models. The means-ends models may be thought as containing either detailed “design” logic or much more simple “operator” logic. This paper presents an empirical test of the impact of interventions intended to improve design versus operator logic for 53 participants in a dynamic learning laboratory with a task centering on implementing welfare reform over a simulated twenty year period. Results suggest that providing managers with high level heuristic results from modeling interventions is necessary condition for achieving improvement in system performance. Focusing on operator logic is key to improving managerial performance of dynamic tasks.

System Dynamics applied to Analysis Modeling and Simulation of Chain Growth Polymerization Process

Hugo Andrade S., Alvaro Ramirez G, Ana C. Uloa Q, Sofia Uloa Q

The problem to be addressed is the dynamics of the chain growth polymerizations process via free radicals.  The process consists in a series of chemical reactions by which a macromolecule is formed by the addition of many structural unites called mers.  The reactions taking place are initiation, propagation and terminations of the growing macromolecule or molecular chain. 

The problem was focused under the General Theory of Systems and the methodology of System Dynamics.  This work is an example of interdisciplinary interaction between Chemical Engineering and Systems Engineering through System Dynamics methodology.

The modeling of polimerization processes is an up to date topic of both scientific and industrial practice importance.  The developed model is based on the especies balance equations and also on an isomorphism with population models. 

The model is composed of a set of only sixteen, but very complex non-liner differential equations, whose solution is very restrictive with respect to the simulation time interval used, due to the great differences in order of magnitude of the characteristics time of occurrence of the various events taking place in the process. In this particular, the authors consider to have made a contribution to establish criteria to quantity what is called in the literature as the appropriate simulation time interval.

The proposed model is ahead of the traditional models of polimerization, in as much as the second ones predict only the behavior of the stable species and the chain lengths average, whereas the proposed model includes besides the dynamics of the unstable species. On the other hand, the proposed model excludes the seudo-stationary assumption, on which, according to our results, is not a completely valid.  As a general conclusion, the Dynamics System methodology appears to be an effective problem-solving tool in interdisciplinary environments.

ECOMAN – An Environmental Management Simulation Game

Paula Antunes, Rui Santos, Luis Jordao, Helder Alves, Joao Pedro Rodrigigues

Environmental management is a complex dynamic process, which involves taking decisions regarding different environmental components and socio-economic agents. Within in the contexts, simulations games are extremely powerful learning tool, allowing the decision maker (player) to formulate and test the results obtained with the implementation of alternative environmental managements strategies, which is often impossible to perform in real situations.

ECOMAN is a simulation game, where the players are environmental managers who are responsible for a region, trying to cope with the different agents, media and uses in order to achieve environmental quality, and social welfare objectives.  
The player has a limited budget to allocate to several environmental management tasks, which is dependent on the health of the economy of the region. Each year a score is computed taking into account environmental quality, service levels and economic activity.
The game is based on a system dynamics model developed in STELLA II, simulating the major interactions between the socio-economic and the environmental system.  The model was implemented with a multimedia interface integrating numerical, graphical and qualitative information using Supercard and Quicktime for the display of video images.

A Dynamic Model of Quality Cost and Benefits Systems for Design Quality

A K Bajpai, P C T Willey

The Importance of quality cost benefits is sometimes not fully recognised by industrial managers.  Quality cost money.  Industrial managers recognize this and tend to be afraid of spending on quality.  But quality also earns money.  Industrial managers do not seem to be fully convinced of this fact.  Unfortunately, even existing literature on the subject does not encourage investing for higher quality.  Most of the cost models about quality deal with the quality improvement and the costs associated in achieving the desired level of quality, but fail to incorporate the benefits of improved quality.
In this work, an attempt has been made to develop a quality costs model which incorporates the benefits.  The quality cost elements have been drawn from various standards sources such as British Standards and American Society for Quality Control publications on quality cost.  The benefits from investing for quality are taken from recently published case studies and reports as well as from our own experiences.  The elements of quality related activities of design department, such as design standards, training design staff and test equipment are identified. The contribution of each individual element, starting from estimation of looses due to poor design to preventions of poor design is isolated and linked dynamically so that costs and benefits are demonstrated through time. 
The quality costs and benefits model was developed using the System Dynamics Modelling approach and simulated using the computer software package “Professional DYNAMO Plus”. The simulated results demonstrate the extent to which prevention investment is justified by future earning.

It is felt that the model can be a significant addition to course material for training programmes of industrial managers.  It allows the user to explore the consequences of different quality management policies such as the amount of investment and the nature of investment on the profit performance and delay before profits are increased in and organization. It is hoped that the model will serve as a useful tool in the hand of decisions-makers, encouraging them to invest more in prevention activates.

Defining System Dynamics Education

Yaman Barlas

This is the second paper in a series that aims to start a debate on issues involved in university-level system dynamics education.  The first paper argues that the field has not experienced growth that one would expect from its potential and identifies several issues that need to be addressed by the system dynamic community, before the field can proliferate in universities.  The second paper tackles some of those problems.  More specifically, the paper discusses the academic definition of system dynamics:  What is the academic core of system dynamics?  What other objects are immediate relevance and importance with respect to this core. The paper offers answers to those questions.  The second issue that the paper deals with is the problem of terminology.  I discuss different types of terminology problems, the most significant being system dynamic, the very name of the field.  System dynamics having an established meaning in mathematical and engineering sciences, does not convey the specific meaning that we wish to attach it. I discuss various potential problems caused by this situation.  I then offer a short list of alternative, more specific names for the field. I conclude that, once the academic issues are rigorously tackled, the university-level system dynamics education should experience growth, which would be a major step toward activation an exponential growth process in the field in general.

Model Validation in System Dynamics

Yaman Barlas

Model validation constitutes an important step in system dynamics methodology. Validation is a prolonged and complicated process, involving both formal/quantitative tools and informal/qualitative ones.  This paper first provides a summary of the philosophical issues involved in model validation.  We then focus on the formal model validation. We offer a flowchart that describes the logical sequence in which various validations activities must be carried out.  We give examples of specific validity tests used in the three major categories of model validations:
Structural tests, structure-oriented behavior tests and behavior pattern tests.  Finally, we focus specifically on the logic of the behavior pattern validation and illustrate it on a mutli-step validation procedure. Currently, we are in the process of implementing this multi-step procedure on micro-computers, embedded in a friendly user-interface.

Introducing MIS: A Process of Directed Organization Change

Ronen Bar-Nahor, Chanoch Jacobsen

Despite the importance of computerized information system, many MISs are left idle or used only partially, having exceeded their budgets or time allocations.  The basic problem is that critical interactions between software engineers, users, and the organization have been neglected.  The reason for this neglect is the inter-disciplinary nature of the problem.  There is a basic conflict of interest between managers’ need for efficiency, users’ desire for quality of working life, and software engineers’ quest for sophisticated technical solutions.
We have developed an integrated theory of the detailed processes and transformed it into System Dynamics model.  Running the model against three time series of data from one organization that has introduced an MIS, we reproduced an average of 84% of the variances in the data.  Our tentative conclusion is that introducing MIS is a special case of directed organizational change that requires cooperation between software engineers and OB experts.

Scenario Modeling of Demand for Future Telecommunications Services

Jeremy Barnes, Fraser Burton, Ian Hawker, Michael H Lyons

It is widely believed that the world is entering the Information Age, and telecommunication companies must make critical investments decisions based on how much information customers will want to move in the future, Understanding and preparing for the range of possible customers demand scenarios is vital for long-term success in an increasingly competitive market.  However, detailed forecasts are impossible to make since the market is as yet undefined.  Scenario modelling is useful in developing the understanding telcos need to achieve success.
We have developed a system dynamics model to investigate the effects of different business and technological drivers on the demand for future telecommunications services, using the software tool iThink.  Drivers include the number of people teleworking and increasing computing powers.  These interact to produce usage dynamics for generic services covering conversation, messaging and data transfer, which are then used to calculate resulting network traffic. 
Our results suggest that the key uncertainties are the rate of improvement in general IT sophistications, and the extent of teleworking.  High growth in both of these produces rapid growth in peak traffic, whilst low teleworking delays that growth.  Slower improvement in IT sophistication severely limits growth, since increasing computing power could stimulate large volumes of traffic.  Small increases in the use of video applications also produce significant traffic growth, and these factors combine to give large uncertainties.  The behavior of this system is discussed with reference to individual business sectors, demonstrating system dynamics as a useful approach for investigating telecoms supply-demand systems.

Illusion and Reality: A Systemic Approach to Management Development Workshops

M A Barrett, B Crellin

We describe the development of a meta-level framework to be used as a structuring and controlling mechanism during management development workshops.
The framework is constructed around the use of system metaphors and methodologies within a microworld workshop environment.
Relevant elements from system methodologies are employed as transitional objects within these microworld environments, in order to provide a creative stimulus and reduce participant anxiety.

The Management of Urban Water Services – A study in Long – Term Institutional Dynamics

John Barton

The paper uses systems thinking to interpret the dynamic interplay between social, political, and institutional forces that have influenced the management of a large urban water authority.  This interpretation is used as a framework for assessing recent government initiatives to introduce competition into the water industry. The study is based on 100 years of history of the operation of Melbourne Water and current proposal to vertically disaggregate the business and to use a combination of industry regulation and yardstick competition to manage the industry.  The paper attempts to demonstrate the importance of adopting a systemic approach to understanding the complex array of issues involved and to record some of the practical difficulties encountered in using this approach within a highly turbulent environment.

The Introduction of Hospital Information System – The Necessity for Accommodation

P J Baugh, D M Walters

This paper examines the introduction of information system into the new environment of the National Health Service since restructuring in 1989.  Taking its approach from Soft Systems Methodology, it looks at cultural analysis in the context of the development of decision support systems for hospital managers and medical staff.  Drawing on the deeper cultural analysis developed by Schein, it examined the problems which face systems developers when attempting to seek an accommodation of views between groups which not only have different requirements but significantly different outlooks predicated by their roles in the hospital environment.  Particular attention is focused on the survival instincts of these two groups when faced with an environment which is changing rapidly.  The medical profession is seen as one which sees its former pre-eminence within the hospital threatened.  This may have adverse effects on the development of system for doctors and managers alike but, unless the cultural dimension is addressed, solutions to hospital information problems will, at best, be partial.

Investigation Software project Resource Planning: An outline of a Proposed Multiple Case Study Research Approach

G A Bell, J O Jenkins

The use of system dynamics (SD) is proposed to assist project managers in examining the consequences of their resources distribution plans.  Justification of the selection of this technique is given, in particular why it is purposed as an alternative to statistical forecasting techniques.  The focus of the research is to provide insights into how to reduce schedule slippages, which is thought to be a common dynamic behavioral problem.  One objective in reaching this goal is to identify common SD structures.
An overview of the original SD research contribution to the software engineering discipline is given.  A brief description of the problem tackled and the model findings are outlined.  Criticisms of the research process are developed to justify parts of our approach.  To ensure that this practical research investigations is both relevant to managers and scientifically rigorous, a selection of both qualitative and quantitative methods are suggested to assist with the first objective.  These are briefly justified and discussed in this paper.

Systems Thinking and its Influence on Operational Culture

J B Bentham, A G de Visscher

This paper reviews a recent period of change in traditional manufacturing environment of a large oil refinery, and the role of systems thinking techniques in this development process.  The focus in on how the gradual adoption of these methods as part of normal working practices has contributed to changes in attitudes, behavior and performance.  Attention is directed to the way the methods are themselves proving to be a vehicle for cultural development, as well as being of the toolkit used to analyse specific issues.

The paper describes the way several techniques have been introduced, applied and combined.  There is a commentary on how these approaches have helped to induce a shift from a rather intimidating fire-fighting mentality to a widespread embrace of the quest for structural improvements.  This shift and the adoptions of the techniques are, of course, mutually reinforcing.  What is of particular significance is the way the virtuous circle was initiated.  It is concluded that the approach was successful largely because it was consistent with the broader requirement of change-management and compatible with fundamental aspects of the predominant organizational culture.
While this is an ongoing process of transformation, the paper introduces a framework to conceptualize the insights which have emerged so far.  It is intended that this will facilitate their further application and hence support the broader learning process.

Dynamics of New York City Court System

Dan S Bernstien

For policy makers in New York City the functioning of the criminal justice system appears to be deteriorating.  During the last few years arrests by police have dropped.  However inmate population continued to increase for over a year after the drop in arrests.  In spite of the drop in court case, or case load per judge, the average length of time to dispose of a case continued to increase.  During this time, the total number of judges working in New York City increased, further dropping the average caseload.
The importance of this topic lies in the resistance of the criminal justice system to change and the high total cost of the system.  Recent policy goals of New York City management have been to reduce needed jail capacity by reducing both the intake of inmates and average lengths of stay.  New York City officials estimated that by reducing the inmate length of stay by ten days savings of $108 million could be realized.

A Pocket Model of Global Warming for Policy and Scientific Debate

Dan S. Bernstien, George P. Richardson, Thomas R Stewarts

 

The global climate is a large complicated system with many feedback loops connecting the different sub-systems.  In recent years there has been an increase in the public’s awareness of global warming and the greenhouse effect.  The public understands that there is some connection between the human emission of greenhouse gases and global climate change.  Experts in this field have been analyzing these connections for years and are still unable to give definitive answers to questions concerning the direct link between emissions and temperature change.  Policy makers have a desire to intervene in order to limit the amount of emissions.  At this point in time available answers are under debate and are unclear, or the model used by the scientific community are too complicated for policy makers to understand.
The purpose of this global warming model is to be small, conceptually clear, and accessible to nonscientists.  The model contains all of the feedback loops hypothesized in the scientific literature.  However, due to its small size it is aggregated to a global level.  This level of aggregation will help to make the model more understandable for policy makers.  The global aggregation will allow policy makers to focus upon the global effects rather than the details of the climate system.

A System Dynamics Model of Soybean Production in India

B S Bisht, K C Sahu, K Vizayakumar

 

An effort has been made to develop a system dynamics simulation model for soybean production in India.  Soybean has been a relatively new introduction to Indian agriculture as a cash crop.  Soybean industry in India is typified by high (1520\%) annual growth in area as well as production.  It is also capacity as compared to the annual productions. Soymeal has been a major earner of foreign exchange for the country with advancing years.  The model presented here analyses the mechanics of flow of area between various crops options, productivity of soybean and competing corps, annual production, prices and the benefitcost ratio.  The values of constants were determined through survey of farmers and expert opinion poll.  Policy options have been analysed with the objective of higher profitability for the growers in the long run.

Dynamics of Management Development and Enterprise In Eastern Europe

Andres Breiter, Edoardo Mollona

Privatization of most enterprises in Eastern Europe is considered essential for the democratic form of government to survive over an extended period.  The dynamics of the privatizations processes and of management development are very important but they have received very little attention.  They are crucial to the success of the attempted conversion of the system in that part of the world.  This is stunning because of the several billion ECU’s and U$S spent on economic and management advice to the countries in the area.
This paper explores the dynamics of management development to meet the needs as markets are freed and companies are privatized.  Particular attention is directed at the fact that many needed skills essential to success may not be taught in the normal management school programs.  From this observation emerges the need for a program of management development uniquely designed for recently privatized companies and for those soon to go through the process.  In addition the conclusions contribute insights to the current debate whether to privatize all corporations within a very short period or whether to proceed more gradually.

Strategic Cultural Interventions in Systems Science – Examining the Prospects for the Further Development of Methodological Complementarism

John Brocklesby

This paper contemplates the prospect of the complementary use of hard, soft, and critical systems methodologies, becoming a more established practice among the diverse company of operational researchers and management scientists in academic, commerce and government, who have been trained in systems thinking and apply its language and concepts in dealing with organizational problems.

The paper takes the line that because matters concerning methodology always embody deeper structures of meaning, and meanings are largely culturally determined, it is worthwhile drawing upon ideas from the literature on organizational culture to illustrate some of the key factors that are likely to obstruct this and other similar initiatives.  From a culture prospective, transitioning from the existing specializations of systems science towards methodological complementarism is conceptualised as requiring a form of organizational learning.  Learning is contingent upon the existence of a broad set of propitious circumstances; a scenario, it is argued, that is not met in this particular case.  Although the idea of complementarism is the principal focus of the paper, much of the argument applies equally to other attempts to deliberately intervene in the culture of systems science.

Efficient Parts Supply: Influence of Information Flows

S J Byrne, L Roberts

We investigate parts supply from one supplier to a manufacturer who operates a very variable final assembly schedule with kanbans for parts supply to the production line from suppliers.
The information flow includes kanbans for resupplying the line from the factory store and restocking the factory store from the supplier, one week ahead forecasts of parts requirements, 8-week ahead requirements and updates orders supplied weekly, and a six month MRP schedule supplied fortnightly.  The supplier uses these to schedule raw material preparation, initial assembly on a bottleneck machine, and finishing.  This is challenging given the conflicts between the pieces of information.
We investigate ways to improve total system performance, particularly inventory levels and easier production scheduling of critical machines, given the delays and structure of the system, using system dynamics models built in ithink!
Kanban numbers can be reduced without risking production interruptions.  The one week ahead forecasts offer little useful information to the supplier.  Shifting to a simpler scheduling mechanism for the initial assembly is helpful.
We have investigated two processes in the manufacturing logistics system, parts flow internal to the manufacturer and to the supplier, and the linkage between parts usage by the manufacturer and parts production by supplier.  They can be simplified and improved, reducing inventory holding and hence cost, without compromising the overall responsiveness of the manufacturer which is a distinctive competitive characteristic.  Simplified information flow processes allow for easier, better operation of total system.

The Paradox of Rational Policies and Irrational Outcomes: A Case of Unexpected Policy Performance Caused by Information Delay

IK Jae Chung, Dong Hwan Kim

 

The study analyzes the impact information network within the waste recycling market on the performance of public policies designed to develop the recycling market.  Two typical policies are reviewed with an experimental procedure of partial and whole model tests.  A system Dynamics model of waste recycling market is used as a laboratory setting for this study.  The research findings suggests that well-intentioned policies can inadvertently lead to dysfunctional performance within a localized information environment.  Delayed and distorted information feedback in the multi-stage structure of the recycling market further complicates problematic policy outcome, or market instability.  This study proposes an information policy of integrating vertically the information network in the recycling market in order to improve the performance of market development policies

A Policy Making Framework for the New Zealand Wine Industry

J F S Cooper, J O Chester, R Y Cavana

This paper discusses the dynamic simulation model of the New Zealand wine industry which is being developed at Victoria University to examine the impact of environmental and policy changes on the short and long term behavior of the industry.  It is highly aggregated model which includes sectors for: planting and harvesting of grapes; production, exports and imports of wine; stock movements and financial flows.  The model provides a policy making framework for the analysis of changes in grape yields, climatic conditions, excise duty on domestic consumptions, minimum grower returns, exchange rate movement and international competitiveness.

Integrating Archetypes and Generic Models into a Framework for Model Conceptualisation

David A Corben

Model conceptualisation is the most difficult system dynamics skill to acquire, practice and teach.  The advent of user friendly simulation tools; STELLA and ithink, have made the task of model constructions and use much easier.  Model conceptualizations by contrast remains as difficult server as ever.
Experiences in training managers in system dynamics show that it is a relatively simple task to turn complete beginners into competent and confident simulators.  The capability to recreate a model from ithink map and in a written description of operating policies is quickly acquired, as is the ability of modifying that model set to test out possible solution to problematic behavior.
The problem arises when these proficient simulators are asked to conceptualize a simple two loop model from a problem descriptions, presented in the form of a newspaper article.  This task is found very difficult by most course members.
The paper describes the development of a new technique to assist with the model conceptualisation process.  The method integrates archetypes and their corresponding generic Models into a framework that helps modellers move from a problem descriptions to a first past ithink model and/or casual map.
An application of the method, to aid conceptualisation of a model of Government funding of housing association is described.

Learning Maintenance Management through System Dynamics

A Continuous Improvement Process

Adolfo Crespo Marques, Ruiz Usano

Maintenance management has become a field of important development according to the operating needs of production planning systems and the impact of new technologies in the industry.  The processes of production flow creation and inventory control in the modern factories lead to a more sophisticated maintenance system to ensure low failure rates and reduce accordingly failures consequences, which is a must in these kinds of environments to meet the production schedules.
In this paper a maintenance system is modelled to study the effects of different policies that can be applied to reach above mentioned targets.  Moreover the conditions required to create a continuous improvement mechanism for the system are analyzed.  Model validation and simulation results are obtained and presented for a real problem in the Spanish industry.

Projecting Model Behavior in the Absence of a Model: Results of a survey

Brain Dangerfield, Carole Roberts

One of the advantages commonly put forward in support of the system dynamics methods is that managers find it difficult to trace dynamic consequences of cause and effect relationships even in simple systems.  While this may be intuitively appealing as one of the justifications for existence of system dynamics, there is a need to accumulate a body of evidence which results from putting this assertion to the test. The paper reports the findings from a questionnaire which has been administered to over one hundred undergraduates and postgraduates covering a range of business management specialisms.   Respondent were asked to decide between two manufacturing technologies, exhibiting quite dissimilar cost structures, with a view as to their future profitability under four different demand scenarios.  The questionnaires were administered twice with a three month gap between during which the answers to the first one were revealed, and on the second occasion the rubric was altered to incorporate feedback into the situation described.  The competing technologies and their associated cost structures reflect very real policy choices and so the outcome of the exercise has a message for manufacturing industry as well as the system dynamics community.

Perspectives on Teaching System Dynamics
Coupling structure and behavior, annotating simulations, and supporting Just In Time Open Learning (JITOL)

Pal Davidsen

In system dynamics we seek to understand the relationship between the structure and the behavior of dynamic systems.  In problem solving, for instance, we must identify the structure underlying problem behavior and find how the structure can be modified to create a more desirable systems behaviour.  To enhance such an understanding, we utilize the graphical techniques.  Whether in print or in software, however, there has been a significant gap between our representation of structure and behaviour.
In this paper, we first present a series of ways to link structure and behaviour such that behaviour can be more easily understood on the basis of the underlying structure.  These techniques are computerized using PowerSimTM.
Within the framework of an EEC research project on distance education for professionals, JITOL (Just In Time Open Learning), we have investigated how to facilitate System Dynamics distance education on electronic networks.  One of the main challenges consists of finding an effective way to present the results of a simulation. Such an interpretation of simulation results is normally partitioned in accordance with the various phases of the system development, portrayed by the simulation, and requires that references be made to the assumptions embodied in the underlying simulation model.
Consequently, the author or any other user of a model must be allowed to comment on the various phases of a specific dynamics development.  Moreover, these comments must be made available to any reader of the model, ie anyone who runs the model under the conditions specified by the author or user.  And these readers must be allowed to respond by adding their own comments to the same fragments of the model development.
This paper outlines a technique developed to, at runtime (ie as the model is running), link such annotations to graphs that represent simulation results, and to make such annotations available to readers at runtime when they inspect that specific simulations.

Der Rutli Management Simulator – a new concept in system dynamics based management fight simulators

Pal Davidsen, Magne Myrtveit

A new management institute, Der Rutli Fuhrungskrafteseminar, was established in Germany this year.  Its leadership is committed to the teaching of management based on the principles of System Dynamics.  As an element in the promotion of these ideas, a new System Dynamics management simulator has been developed.  There are several ways in which this simulator constitutes a new concept in management training.  In particular, we have addressed the issue of teaching policy design, supplemented by design making.
The properties of the simulator originate from the characteristics of the underlying software.  Consequently they can be applied generally to any system dynamics based management simulator.  In particular, the simulator;
(1) the simulator is a multi-group simulator utilizing any personal computer network that supports MS windows;
(2) The simulator allows the user not only to submit decisions to the server that calculates and returns a new state, but also to formulate and try out, on their local computer, their own strategies over any strategic horizon;
(3) the simulator gives the user access to;
-the underlying simulation model (to an extent determined by the administrator);
-The tool by which the simulation model was built, allowing the users to formulate and test their own dynamic hypotheses.
In this paper, we describe these characteristics of a new generation of simulators for management training, illustrated by Der Rutli Management Simulator, and we discuss the potential implications of taking advantage of these characteristic.

Possibilities and Challenges for System Dynamics Research and Education in Europe

Pal Davidsen

In October 1993, a group of 7 academic institutions submitted to the ERASMUS Office of the European Union (EU) in Brussels an application to establish an Inter-University Corporation Program (ICP), i.e. a student exchange program, in system dynamics. This initiative is coordinated by the Department of Information Science, University of Bergen, Norway. A first response is expected by the end May 1994 and the final decision will be known in July. The program will be implemented during the academic year 1994-95.

When the ICP is established, it will receive a grant to support a number of students visiting host institutions abroad in order to receive a formal training in the theory and practice of system dynamics. The program will also support the exchange of faculty and system dynamics curriculum development.

The system dynamics method has proven particularly useful in social sciences and in public and private management. A large number of enterprises currently apply system dynamics in their design of policies and in management training. The system dynamics method is taught and applied in prominent management schools, schools of social science and technological institutes in Europe, America, Asia and Australia. Although originating and partly dominated by American Universities (MIT in particular), there is a large numbers of courses in theory, applications, and software development taught in Europe. It is our purpose with this programme, by joining forces, to emphasize this European tradition of the field.

This paper describes some possibilities and challenges that arise from this program. It also indicates how we could initiate a research program in Europe, possibly an ESPRIT-program, based upon system dynamics.

The Applications of System Dynamics to Re-Engineering Career Plans

Andrew Davis

This paper demonstrates the use of system dynamics in the examination, evaluation and reformulation of business policy.  It describes the consultancy and modeling process used to examine the recruitment and promotion system of a large company.
The management felt that the short-term decisions they were making, particularly about how many graduates to recruit, were endangering their ability to manage the system in the longer term.  They were finding the there were too many staff at middle management grades, whilst they were doubtful that they were developing the senior management of the future.   They further believed that the system, as currently operated, gave them little ability to control the long-term availability of staff.  It was decided to initiate a study, using system dynamics, to understand the dynamics of the manpower system and study the policy options available for controlling the system.  The model enabled management to increase their understanding of the system and evaluate their current method of decision making.
The model demonstrated that the problems were indeed caused by the system, and that managers had adapted their decision making process close to the optimal, given the constraints in which they were operating.  A new system of recruitment and promotions was defined, tested and implemented, which overcomes many of the problems identified in this study,

Helping Not-for-Profit Enterprises Become More “Business-Like”: A Learning Organization Approach

Eric Deakins, Graham Winch

This paper describes the results to date of an investigation into the role of a system dynamics “microworld” model in helping a not-for-profit organization (charity) become more “business-like” in its strategic management, and more able to evaluate impacts and opportunities in its ever more competitive environment.  The organization- the local division of a relationship advisory service in the U.K. – in common with most other charities is facing a more turbulent environment with major uncertainties in government grants, greater competition for voluntary donations, and changes in its perceived role.  This requires the organization to put much greater emphasis on effective management, but this may be regarded as diverting, and even in conflict with deeply held beliefs, by Board members, paid managers, and counselors and volunteers.
This experience to date suggests that the development and utilization of a microworld model of the organization and its environment help its member to envision the full implications of possible strategic developments.  These developments include the impact and timing of direct advertising and the offering of contract advisory services to firms concerned that redundancies and other situations may put their employees under the sort of stress that could seriously effect their domestic relationships.  This approach clarifies and aids the reconciliation of “business” performance measures like client contributions, cash flow management and training investment with such core concerns as counselor moral and the service provided to it’s “clients”.

Information, System, Hence, Information System: The case for Ontological and Epistemological “depth”

Thierry Demay, Christian de Cock

This paper presents a critique of the atomistic ontology and empiricist epistemology which inform most current definitions of the concepts information, systems and, hence, information systems in the Information System (IS) literature.  The notion of information as an objectively given quantifiable ‘force’ emanating from the real world and endowed with the essential property of dissolving uncertainty; or as possessing the same essential property but as consisting of structured or processed data, i.e. atomistic ‘facts’, about the real world are argued to be unsustainable, on both philosophical and practical grounds.  It is argued, furthermore, that the notion of systems as an ontology in respect of goal seeking cybernetic machines unproblematically specifiable in terms of their boundaries, of their input and output, and of their objectives is not inappropriate to the socially-based systems in terms of which an IS must be defined, but also fails to consider the ontological, and consequently epistemological, depth implied by this concept.  In view of these arguments, an alternative conceptual practice is explored by suggesting that the concept system be taken as an epistemological tool to be deployed in respect of complex coherent ‘whole-entities’ characterized by their emergent properties and, in the case of socially-based systems, by the essential autopoietic nature of their modes of regulation and self-representation including, above all, language.  It is also suggested that information should be considered as a set of fundamentally, arbitrary signs whose ’emergent’ properties i.e. syntactic, semantic and pragmatic, are intersubjectively negotiated between international organizational agents and, as such, inseparable from the forms of social life which they sustain and in which they are generated.  This alternative conceptualization, proceeds from an ontology which acknowledges the essential ‘depth’ of its key thought objects, by virtue of the emergent properties attributions to these objects, in contrast to the flat atomistic ontology currently dominant in the IS field.  Such an alternative conceptual practice, we argue, provides an initial theoretical framework in which to ground the currently ill-defined, “emergent perspective”, on the relationship between ICT and organizational change, identifiable in the IS literature.  While as regarded IS practice, this re-conceptualization is found to be congruent with the object oriented approach to IS development which is currently attracting increasing practical attention and which appears to provide the basis for a common and intuitively meaningful language with which to bridge the gap between IS end-users and developers.

Responsibility Analysis: A Basis for Understanding Complex Managerial Situations

Gurpreet Dhillon, James Backhouse

Management practitioners have always felt the need to understand organizational contexts and processes.  Consequently many different theoretical bases have been used to facilitate the evaluation.  However the focus on existing approaches has primarily been on the ‘formal’ aspects of the organization.  This has often resulted in inadequate and poor analysis of various complex managerial situations.  In viewing organizations as communications systems, this paper introduces the responsibility analysis approach which helps in presenting a comprehensive picture of an organization environment.  At a very generic level, organizations are viewed in terms of three sub-systems; technical, formal and informal.  When conducting a responsibility analysis, the endeavor is to identify the responsible agents and capture the norms associated with each action.  In doing so, we seek to understand the underlying repertories of behavior.  This produces a high level specification of the organization and its attendant responsibilities, thus allowing a comparison to be made with the implicit and explicit structures of responsibility.  The paper demonstrates these concepts with examples drawn from a National Health Service case study.

Feedback and Breakdowns as Breakthroughs in Dyadic Communications

Julia M Di Stefano

This paper shows that viewing dyadic communication from the perspective of servomechanisms and system dynamics rather than the cybernetics perspective (see Richardson, 1991, 128) allows deeper insights into the complex process of human conversations.  Instead of viewing feedback from the cybernetic perspectives as the influence of input back on the output (Richardson, 128) we view dyadic communication as a closed system, with positive and negative feedback loops.  This point of view helps us to better understand how to use feedback to achieve one’s communications goals.  A case study based on the short story The Revolt of Mother by Mary Wilkins Freeman, illustrates the reciprocal (not linear) nature of dyadic communication, and the role of breakdowns in revealing its structures. This analysis has implications for managers who engage in conversations in which they create, take care of, and initiate new commitments within an organization (Winograd and Flores, 1991, 151)

The Dynamics of Managing a Life Insurance Company

Andrew Doman, Maurice Glucksman, Nathaniel Mass, Michael Sasportes

This paper reports the finding of an internal McKinsey research and development project designed to test the value of applying System Dynamics thinking to the life insurance industry.  The aim was to understand better how management decisions and actions can affect the success or failure of a typical direct sales life company.  The study compared the evaluation over 20 yeas of two companies, Equitable Life and London Life.  Starting out in 1975 from virtually identical competitive positions, Equitable has become the U.K.’s most successful life company, while London Life was rescued by the AMP Society from near insolvency in 1989.
We found System Dynamics a powerful means of identifying which managerial actions had accounted for the extraordinary divergence of the two companies.  The lessons learned include many counter-intuitive insights that have relevance for any life company manager.  Through simulation we were able to isolate which management actions made the difference to long term performance.  In particular, we show how attempts exceed the maximum sustainable growth rate specific to any individual company can lock it into a slow but relentless spiral of decline, from which there is little hope of escape.  This growth ceiling can be quantified and we also identify a number of a long range early warnings signs.  Consequently, we believe that our conclusions are likely to change the way life companies are managed in the future.

Systems for Modeling and Simulating in Schools

Hans-Ulrich Donhoff

This paper wants to report about an approach to make German pupils familiar with the problem of system dynamics, to promote the comprehension of complex system, to teach them something like “thinking in networks”.
To reach this aim we employed a tool for modeling and simulating, comparable with well-known systems as Ithink or POWERSIM, but able to run on simple PCs under MS-DOS.
Using this tool we have developed the following four units (the subject in parentheses):
-Ecosystem forest (ecological balance, biology)
-Flows of carbon dioxide (chemistry)
-Growth (mathematics)
-“Tycoon” (economy)
Two of these units, “forest” and “economy” are the basis of our research.  In 11 groups with 238 pupils we made pre-tests, video recording and final tests,
The results in the field “model thinking” were remarkably better then in a polite study, initiated two years ago, the semantic and the syntactic correctness of the models have increased as well.
This will be evaluation of several items, regarding the aspects
-prediction of behavior
-forms of presentation, and
-level of net structure.

Modeling Infrastructure Induced Development at National and Regional Levels

Donald R Drew

Infrastructure induced development is a process dominated by feedback in that it features the synthesis of demand and supply functions.  For the demand function, we are seeking the infrastructure improvement requirement to accommodate a certain socioeconomic need; for the supply function we want to know the level of service obtained for a certain infrastructure improvement.  The objectives of the project from which the paper is derived is to develop a methodology for generating models that can be used to by planners and decision makers as instrumentalities for making reliable estimates of the economic health and productivity benefits and of potential infrastructure investment, and for linking infrastructure investment, users benefits, and succeeding economics development to provide a basis for rational policy formation.  The results is a methodology that permits one to answer the question: What would be the economic impact A, the social impact B, the demographic impact C, and the land-use impact D, the environmental impact E, and the users benefits F over geographic scale G for an infrastructure investment H at time T?  The approach is illustrated at both the regional and national levels.

A System Dynamics Model to Evaluate Policies on Institutional Decentralization and Community Participation

Isaac Dyner, Antonio Quintero

The new Colombian construction makes heavy emphasis on issues related to decentralization and community participations.  It intends to incorporate in Government the appropriate social actors to accomplish more effective administration.
In this sense, definitions have to be made in relation to regional responsibilities in the area of Health, Education, Housing, Public Services, and Employment, in order to obtain the appropriate transferences of resources from the central Government to the communities.  Laws on these issues are now being discussed in Congress.
Preliminary results show how System Dynamics proves to be an appropriate methodology to evaluate resources needed, community participation and institutional performance.
The model developed may be used as a training tool to help community leaders to understand the complexities involved in the decentralization process.  The model incorporates behavioral patterns and at the same time provides system performance and effectiveness indications (Community participation and accomplishments).

The Dynamics of Capacity Constrained Supply Chains

G N Evans, M M Naim

The analysis of capacity levels and there location is of vital importance in the design and management of supply chains as it is commonly believed that capacity constraints exacerbate poor customer service levels.  The inventory and order Based Production Control System (IOBPCS), often associated with “real life” production control system, is used as “company” building blocks for the dynamic simulation of a supply chain.  Various combinations of capacity levels through the supply chain are implemented at each echelon in the form of a maximum order rate that can be placed on the production facilities.
A strategy of maintaining a record of unfilled orders (backlog) at the production facility highlights a number of notable dynamic characteristics over and above normal dynamics of an unconstrained IOBPCS.  There is an excess inventory build up even as production order backlog is being depleted.  This is simply dealt with by effectively re-engineering the total business via integrating the company’s overall inventory control policy with production.  The new system is used to analyze the effect of capacity constraints within a three echelon one player supply chain.  The inclusion of a non-linearity into the system leads to improved dynamic performance in some designs for the step change in sales and capacity constraint levels tested, but this does not mean improved consumer levels.
The strategy examined to improve dynamic performance is the holistic setting of system parameters to improve the non-linear systems.  The future direction for research and ideas for further improvement are also presented, where the simulation results indicate the need to closely monitor appropriate system variables such as inventory levels, and to incorporate them within more robust decision rules.

Teaching System Dynamics to Teachers and Students in 8-12 Environment

Diana M Fisher

System Dynamics at the pre-college level, its time has come.  English teachers have sufficient comfort with technology.  Tools such as STELLA II and PowerSim have provided the broad-based language for communication and understanding.
A recently awarded 3 year National Science Foundation grant, CC-STADUS (Cross-Curricular System Thinking and Dynamics Using STELL), is training 165 high school math, science, and social studies teachers in system modeling using STELLA II.  Teachers develop some models within their curricular areas.  Then Cross-curricular teacher teams are formed to design at least one large model and develop curricular materials around the model so it can be used immediately in their classes.  The training is done by high school teachers and by speakers from industry who use modeling in their work.  The teacher participants are responsible for sharing their knowledge and expertise with other faculty and with students in their classes.
High school students are using systems concepts at various levels.  At lower levels (especially with “at-risk” students) the teacher demonstrates how a model is designed and students manipulate the model and predict new behavior.  At the middle level, students develop a model as a class activity under the direct guidance of the teacher.  At the highest level, students select a topic of interest, formulate boundaries, work with an information resource person, and work with a modeling resource person to develop a model and present it to a class.

Using System Dynamics Technology to Improve Planning and Budgeting for Higher Education: Results in Arizona and Houston, Texas

Carol Frances, Marshall Van Alstyne, Art Ashton, Thomas Hochstettler

 

System Dynamics wee used for the first time to improve planning and budgeting in American higher education with a pioneering project launched in 1990 by staff of the Arizona Board of Regents to help the state of Arizona anticipate and prepare to meet rapidly growing enrollment demand over a twenty-years planning horizon.  Then, the University of Houston System, building on the experience of Arizona, chose to use System Dynamics to help meet their goal of achieving greater diversity among their students and serve the higher education needs of a dramatically changing population in their metropolitan area.
Though system dynamics was developed close to forty years ago at MIT and has widely used industry, it is new to the higher education.  This paper first briefly describes the actual experiences of Arizona and Houston in developing and using the system dynamics models for planning purposes, and then highlights special features built into the models.

An Archetype for Holistic Problem solving

F J Garlick, W Wynn

This paper discusses the nature of generalized problems solving and its algorithmic-like properties.  In the systems literature problem solving is usually discussed in relation to its methodological setting – for example, SSM may legitimately be regarded as a problem solving scheme.  This paper explores what we believe to be the five basic cognitive elements or strategies involved in problem solving.  An examination of these five strategies then suggests a way of understanding why particular methodologies have powerful problem solving power, and why explicit use of these five strategies within a methodology will result in an increased problem solving potential.
Some of the ideas discussed here arose from studies into how knowledge engineers solved the problem of knowledge elicitation and representation.  These studies were illuminating since the most common situation seemed to be that no real underlying strategy was employed and that the activity in essence was based on the chance plus experience.  In other words when practitioners were asked what strategy they were using the most common answer was that they did not know but they could do it anyway.  This form of knowledge is often called Tacit Knowledge – that is the sort of knowledge where we know what to do, but have no clear idea as to explaining how we do it.

Mathematical Simulation Model for the Study of the Transmission Dynamics of the Leishmaniasis Under a Systemic Approach

Lilia N Gelvez Pinto, Zandy C Muskus M, Hugo H Andrade S, Gerardo Munoz M

This article presents a model in System Dynamics, for the control of the Leishmaniasis.  This proposal presents the interactions among the five subsystems that intervene in the transmission dynamics of the Leishmaniasis: insect population, human population, animal population, the environment and the control strategies.  The parasite, the transmission personage, is defined as the element that determines the relationship among the subsystems that determines the epidemiological cycle.  The indicated subsystems are separated at different levels and its dynamics is modeled through a set of 120 different equations involving the different reported parameters in the scientific literature.  The resulting model permits to simulate the transmission with and without controls and to observe the efficiency by applying of those control policies.  The simulation is performed using a home made software called EVOLUTION, in two different conditions: natural conditions or without controls and with controls, obtaining quantitative and qualitative results which were considered plausible by the experts.  The set conformed by the software and then model could be considered a valuable tool for epidemiology research.

How to Use System Dynamic to Create Your Own Future: A Case Study of Worldwide Oil and Gas Exploration Group

Peter J Genta, David P Kreutzer, Gregg Anderson, Rusty Hinote, Williams C Hood, Kim McMillan

This paper describes the work and experience gained by a team of senior managers using a systems thinking approach, to develop their own set of future scenarios, to support a realignment of strategy and the redesign of a worldwide exploration group of a major integrated oil company.  The opportunity for this experience arose from a need to assess the diminishing returns produced during several years of overseas exploration activity.  According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, the entire petroleum industry has increased its search for reserves overseas.  “…between 1988 and 1992, the world’s 234 largest publicly traded oil companies spent $157 billion on exploration and development overseas, 49% more than in the U.S.”, but diminishing results.  In 1990, the industry discovered 148 barrels of oil outside the US  for every 100 barrels it sold abroad; last year it added just 100 barrels of foreign reserves for ever 100 barrels sold, while the average cost of replacing crude surged 55% to $6.56 a barrel.
Against this backdrop, the senior manager used a systems thinking approach to brainstorm the factors influencing the dynamics of the world oil and gas industry.  From this process the group was able to develop a set of five distinctly different plausible futures that might develop.  To test their group mental model for consistency, they develop a causal model of the industry and discovered that their five different futures all could be explained by a common model.

Implementing AACSB Standards Through Feedback-Loop Planning

Nicholas C Georgantzas, Amy Hamilton, Nancy Drobnis

To maintain the standards set forth by the American Association of Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB), one thing a business school (B-school) must do is to maintain a certain proportion of tenured faculty members to students.  The AACSB standards also affect the process of reviewing tenure track faculty members for promotion and tenure (P&T).  Typically, tenure faculty members are considered more committed to enhancing the reputation of a B-school and of the AACSB through research and publications.

This paper presents a system dynamics simulation model of the interrelationships among variables pertinent to hiring adjunct and tenure track B-school faculty.  An ad-hoc committee of administrators, faculty and students of a relatively small prestigious B-school met to evaluate the implication of AACSB standards and to consider the possible implications the school’s recent expansion history might have on these standards five years into the future.
An important concern underlying the modelling process is that having less than fifteen students in classes is preferable to students.  Smaller classes allow for more instructor-student interaction, so the student better understands what the instructor require and the instructor knows the student interaction, so the needs and skills.  Estimates of the growth and attrition rates of both students and faculty members affect administrative decisions on the number of adjunct and tenure track faculty to hire. Although the time a student spends in the B-school program varies depending on whether enrolled full-time or part-time, the student growth history, the student growth fraction and the student growth forecast are the variables that determine future student enrolment.
The model confirms that the inexorable nature of P&T evaluation process makes the often desired balanced growth in B-school faculty a physical impossibility.  Yet, the model’s computed scenarios, which corresponding to alternative future student enrollment and faculty growth rates, show how the proportion of tenured faculty to students may respond differentially to alternative growth strategies.  An important implication of the simulation results would require the B-school administration to consider both ratios in making hiring and firing decisions for the B-school to maintain the current AACSB accreditation status.

Intermediate Structure Economic Dynamics: The Television Industry

Nicholas C Georgantzas, Philip A Schmid, Mark D Walton

This paper describes a system dynamics simulation model of the interrelationship among firms competing in the entertainment industry.  The model integrates ideas from strategy design, organization design and new technology adoption to describe exactly how the diffusion process of new hardware and software technologies into the entertainment industry is changing the power and stability of syndication firms, the dynamic changes in the extant production capacity of TV networks, and the investment opportunity in basic cable network system operators.
The economic organization and regulation of TV networks broadcasting vary substantially from country to country, but having a mixture of public private enterprise placed under the supervision of a government agency is a common arrangement.  TV networks and affiliates in the United States represent a clear manifestation of government regulation.  The granting of licenses and promulgation of rules pertaining to cross-media ownership enabled independently owned affiliates to carry regularly scheduled programming produced by the networks or by outside contractors. Except for news and sports programs, TV networks currently do not participate significantly in the ownership of production.  Yet this situation has been changing through modification stemming form the financial interests and syndication rules presently in effect.
A team of managers and planners from a group of syndicators met to discuss current events and the changing structure of the entertainment industry.  Changes stem from the moves of major pay cable channels, TV networks, basic cable networks and system operators, each responding differentially to the diffusion of new signal-transmission technologies into their industry.  A broad discussion culminated into a system dynamics simulation model of the interrelationships among firms competing in the entertainment market.  The model produced new insights into the power and stability of syndication firms, the dynamic changes in the extant production capacity of TV networks, and the investment opportunities in basic cable and networks and cable system operators.

Lessons for System Dynamics Mentors in Schools

William Glass-Husain

This successful, large-scale introduction of system dynamics into education requires many supporting elements.  One important element is an institutional structure that supports school change.  A major part of such a structure needs to be the availability of expert system dynamics mentors to provide on-going training and support for teachers.
This support occurs on three tracks.  One track is relatively formal workshops and meetings spent cooperatively developing projects.  Another track is classroom observation and documentation.  The third track consists of encounters by the coffee machine, and consists of informal, brief conversations where the mentor and teachers can brainstorm ideas or confer on a current project.  These methods of on-going support are preferable to the more conventional format of short-term intense workshops, which research shows has little long-term effectiveness.
In this paper, the author discusses his experience a part of the System Dynamics Project in the Catalina Foothills School District (CFSD), located in Tucson, Arizona.  Specifically, the author has been a system dynamics mentor at Catalina Foothills School District (CFSD), since the fall of 1992.  As a mentor, the author works with administrators facilitating the use of system dynamics as a method of instruction.

The Price of Oil: A System Dynamic Approach

J V Greenman

There has recently been a revival of interest in the dynamics of the oil market, not least because its key determinants are still a matter of intense debate even though the turbulence experienced in the 1970s and the early 1980s has largely dissipated.  One aspect of the discussion is how to appropriately model the market given that dominant paradigm of the 1970s – that of exhaustion of a finite resource – is no longer seen to be valid for the short time scales involved.  Models that are based on the behavioral simulation approach typically use the target-capacity utilization (TCU) supply-side model in their description of events, but doubts remain as to the validity of the TCU hypothesis.  In this paper we adopt a bottom up approach by modelling as closely as possible, from first principles, the strategies adopted by OPEC in their attempt to manage the world oil market.  We also look afresh at the demand side of the oil market to capture the completed lag structures that characterized the response to price volatility.  The complete model, constructed in Stella, is shown to reproduce accurately the hysteresis effect exhibited by the oil market in the period of interest.

The Management of Innovation in International Corporations as a Dynamic Process of Organizational Learning

Martin Grossmann

Scholarly research has long identified innovations as one important reason for internationalizing corporate business.  This statement is represented analytically by cause and effect relations at the beginning of the project. Innovations, i.e. the underlying technologies have a crucial impact on industries and their development over time.  The dynamic relationship between technologies and their industries will be explained on the basis of technology and industry life cycles. 
Subsequently, it is pointed out that one important precondition for generating innovations successfully is the organizational structure by which research and development (R&D) units are linked together.  Basically, three organizational models which are examined can be distinguished: an international network models, the process of organizational learning on knowledge, relevant for innovations, takes place in different ways.   To generate successful innovations, R&D personnel has to learn diligently and quickly from both: the new technological developments and from new or diligently and quickly from both: the new technological developments and from new or changing market needs.  Proposals could be made to facilitate organizational learning in the field of R&D.  Then, the organizational models are allocated to the quadrants of a technology portfolio.  One axis symbolizes the attractiveness of the technology which basically illustrates the technology life cycle.  This may offer a theoretical explanation of the need for adjusting organizational R&D models and the organizational learning process according to the dynamics of technologies.

Functional Economic Analysis of Purchasing at MITRE

Thomas Gulledge, Henry Neimeier

Functional economic analysis is a modeling approach that provides a uniform basis for analysis and comparison of alternative investment and management practices.  The approach takes into account the costs, benefits, and risks associated with new ways of doing business and managing organizations.  The entire purchasing process from initial request to final delivery, payment and accounting is being re engineered at MITRE.  A complete resourced process flow chart was developed for both the present and proposed systems.  An “i think” system dynamics model of both the present and proposed process was developed.  The model projects the seasonal workload over the proposed system lifetime.  Dynamic normal, overtime, and temporary staffing requirements were calculated.  The new system reduced total requisition delay by a factor of ten.  This will greatly reduced expediting actions and costs.  Multiple data bases and computer systems along the process were combined into a single system.  This greatly reduces data entry and reconciliation effort.  The new process groups purchase requisitions by type that provides the opportunity for bulk discounts.  All these will result in 37 million dollars of saving over a ten year system life.

Organizational Learning and Adapting Trajectories Found in a System Dynamic Based Business Game

Roger I Hall

The counterintuitive associations, known as Bowman’s Paradox, found between measures of financial risk and return for a large sample of companies across many industries have previously been explained in terms of the attitudes of managers to risk using prospect Theory.  Similar results were obtained by the author from teams playing a system Dynamics based business game to stimulate a magazine publishing industry.  Experimental results of the dynamics movements of the team companies within the financial measures of risk and return space are presented.  Explanations based on organizational learning and adapting group decision making behavior provide an alternative account of the archetypal team transitions observed.

System Dynamics Underwood

Kjell Henden

This paper deals with System Dynamics as an alternative to methods of problem-solving that are traditionally taught in colleges.  It is based on my experience of teaching the use of the methodology for analyzing small system of finance, hydrography, demography etc.
Testing out any hypothesis where System Dynamics is compared to another methodology is complicated, and I do not present any conclusions.  I argue further that this has to be done by a qualitative approach.
In the field of finance quite a lot can be gained by using System Dynamics.  The given example of calculating the net present value of a cash flow illuminates my point.  In traditional textbooks this value is given by a formula based on the assumptions that interest remains constant over a long period of time, and that there is no or constant depletion of money value due to inflation.  In view of economic reality this description is very native.  On the other hand, it is rather cumbersome to develop and use a formula that takes in account variation of annual earnings, varying interest and varying inflation.  Similar observations have been my incentive for applying System Dynamics to various sciences.  Quite a lot of traditional calculations can be greatly simplified by resorting to the methodology of system dynamics; especially when it comes to integrating complex, realistic assumptions into the models.
My preliminary conclusion is that System Dynamics enhance the understanding and enables the students to go well beyond the oversimplifications of traditional textbooks, and that the use of the methodology in various disciplines should be advocated.  It is further my belief that teaching the subjects in undergraduate classes creates an underwood of users; a basis from which further system analysts can be recruited.

Competitive Simulations: Introducing Corporations to Organizational Learning

Gregory Hennessy

System Dynamicists usually view simulation as a means to help them understand the counter-intuitive behaviors commonly exhibited by complex systems and to facilitate others’ learning about these behaviors. However, a second and closely-related application is typically overlooked: the elicitation of barriers to organizational learning in a non-threatening environment. In our experience, when clients are placed on teams and presented with a simulated future, the organizational defensive routines which prevent effective decision-making in the real world soon arise in the simulation setting. A skilled facilitator can then begin to address these behavior patterns in the (relatively) safe context of the simulation.

Thus, we see tremendous power in the integration of the applications of simulation technology. First, the dynamic model used to build a simulation helps both the modeler and the client understand systemic behavior – which leads to better strategic choices. Second, the addressing of organizational defensive routines promotes learning and the conversion of such choices into timely action.

DIAGNOST; A Microworld in the Healthcare for Elderly People

Gerton Heyne, Jac L Geurts, Juliette Vermaas

DIAGNOST is a policy exercise based on a gaming/simulation in which managers and directors of institutions for the care of the elderly in a region of the Netherlands are given the opportunity to anticipate the coming changes in health care in general and in the care of the elderly in particular.  A microworld is created in which the participants can safely experiment with various policy options.  This paper describes the methods by which the game was constructed.  Apart from the more of less customary gaming techniques, also system analysis and tools from participative model building are used.  The results of the test runs and of the first official run are viewed and evaluated along with the methods and techniques applied during construction.

Launching System Dynamics

James H Hines, Dewey W Johnson

It is increasingly common for companies to undertake a system dynamics study with the aid of outside consultants.  However, it is still uncommon for even large companies to successfully bring system dynamics into the organization as an internal competency.  This paper reports on the efforts at Eastman Chemical Company to create an internal capacity in system dynamics.  At this point, Eastman has successfully launched system dynamics as an organizational approach to decisions making, and the effort continues to develop rapidly.  Eastman managers must yet address issues of sustainability, however the process that resulted in a successful organizational start is of interest in itself and may help other companies seeking competency in system dynamics.  This paper describes the launch of system dynamics at Eastman.

Modeling the Constraints on the Global Pharmaceutical Industry

Geoffrey D Hobbs, Bryan R Deane

Advances in all fields of medical technology have driven rapidly growing expectations of medical care over the last half century.  The rate of growth of this demand for health-care had consistently exceeded GDP growth and, in many countries, the health-care bill had been absorbing an ever greater proportion of government spending.  Governments throughout the world are increasing concerned that this growth is unsustainable.  The pharmaceutical industry, whose products account for about 5 to 10% of the health-care spend, has based on a cycle of growing sales from ever more effective new products, fuelling a substantial re-investment in high-risk, long-term research and development, leading to further advances and new product introductions.  Historically the overall sales growth has been founded on both price-related factors.

The purpose of this study was to explore the relevance of a System Dynamics modeling approach to understanding the potentially complex interactions between the pharmaceutical industry, the medical and related professions, and the regulator and paymasters who fund health-care.  A prototype model has been constructed and used to create a variety of scenarios describing alternative futures, in which the regulators impose constraints on either price or volume increases.  Not surprisingly, the developing dynamics vary, depending on the type and severity of the constraints and the industry responses to them.  For example, under price control, increased investment in marketing by the industry to promote volume growth might accelerate the reduction in the industry’s profit margins, leading to a fall in the proportion of sales income devoted to R&D and a fall in the number of new products being developed.  This scenario suggests a transformation of the industry towards a high volume, low margin, non-innovative “commodity” industry.
Experiments with the prototype suggest that the System Dynamics modeling approach can help to explore in an insightful way the potentially complex interactions of the various groups involved in health care delivery.  There is extremely broad scope for further development of the approach, which should ideally be targeted at specific issues within the system.

Systems Thinking and Business Process Re-design: A Case for Combining Techniques

Alan C Hocking, Peng Sea Lee

This paper describes a consultancy project where the main aim was for the client to learn about systems thinking (ST) through an application in the area of business process re-design (BPR).  Over a two week period, systems thinking was applied in variety of contexts: exploring the interfaces between business processes; re-designing a single process; and structuring a chronic problem relating to the client’s budgeting process.  It was found that systems thinking performed differently depending on the problem context within which it was being applied.  Systems thinking performed well when applied to specific and chronic problems, but less so when used to explore business processes where no particular problem had been identified.  Blending systems thinking with other problem-structuring techniques, however, created an integrated and powerful method for re-designing a business process.
Four ways are describes in which systems thinking was applied during the project and pays particular attention to the way a range of techniques was used to re-design a business process.

Requisite Cognitive Skills for Decisions about Systems

Anthony M Hodgson, Gary B Chicoine-Piper, Nela Chicoine-Piper

The organizational learning orientation to systems thinking requires managers to think together and share mental models using a variety of related techniques.  It is generally recognized that this is no easy matter since the demand for new ways of thinking puts stress on old habits of mind.  The purpose of this paper is to show how treating this difficulty as purely a technical problem falls short by overlooking the cognitive dimension of what new events have to happen in the brains of the managers.  Cognitive biology gives a starting point to consider the decision behavior relates to implicit mental models.  The consequences of mental models without feedback and systemic coherence are illustrated by an analysis of faulty thinking in privatization.  A classification of system and feedback types emphasizes that, in managing organizations, uni-dimensional systems thinking is not adequate.  The requisite multi-dimensional systems thinking requires holistic multi-factor thinking, multi-future thinking combined with causal feedback thinking. A crucial link between practical consulting, applied cognitive science and applied system science is the use of visual facilitation which increasingly makes use of the power of interactive visual representations of mental models behind decisions.

The Use of Influence Diagrams in Formulating an IT Strategy for Retailers

R K Holmes

This paper is concerned with the use of a set of influence Diagrams representing the major processes in retail branch operations.  (i.e., stock flow, sales activities, and human resources management), to identify I.T. applications that can help improve control over these processes.  These applications can then be mapped onto the type of retail branch to give a portfolio for development and implementation.  Prioritisation may be based on cost/benefit/risk analyses.

Developing a Business Flight Simulator for Learning Organizations

Clive Holtham

The Business Flight Simulator is a major action  research project involving academic and industrial collaborators.  Its central purpose is to support the creation and development of learning organizations through the application of wide variety of IT and software tools.  The particular influence of evolving system dynamics thinking on the project is identified.  The project also draws in finding from a recent international study of the application of information technology to support group working.  The preoccupation of the Business Flight stimulators is with creating a physical and networking environment for group decisions and their implementation.  Groups are supported by a variety of software tools.  Much of the emphasis during the last decade has been on the application of single tool to support group working.  These range from the highly quantitative to those which focus on more qualitative and inter-personal issues.  The research project involves applying combinations of tools to business processes across a variety of industrial sectors, and preliminary conclusions in this area will be discussed.

The Concept of Waste and its Use in Information System Design

W Hutchinson

No system is 100% efficient and so by definition produces waste. Whilst the concept of waste and waste minimization is entrenched in the industrial systems sector eg with the Just In Time philosophy, it is still not widely used in others such as business information systems. Waste is not confirmed to material loss, but also to such things as time wasted, or to more intangible concepts such as loss of morale. In fact, any unwanted system output is waste. The identification of all but the most obvious of these by system designers can be difficult because they are designing the system using their own perceptions of what is a “good” output and what is waste. Waste can be “in the eye of the beholder”. The identification of waste in all but simple systems can itself be a contentious issue. One person’s waste can be another’s benefit.

The identification of waste can itself be illuminating if system methods are being used in resolving issues where perceptions of the problem space are not agreed upon, ie “soft” problems. The “world views” of the stakeholders in the problem can just as easily be identified by what they regard as waste as it can from what is regarded as desirable. In fact, it can bring out entrenched biases more clearly.

Whilst most system techniques consider the expected and desired outputs of a system, few consider the unwanted ones. The system itself is, of course, just a concept but the classification of waste can identify paradigms which might otherwise have been hidden in the system definition.

At a more concrete level, the design of information systems can greatly benefit from the identification of unwanted outputs. Designers often become engrossed in productivity, ie expected outputs, but rarely consider the detrimental effects of their system (although the detrimental effect of other systems, eg the one to be replaced, are cited).

Frameworks for Integration of Systems Thinking in Quality Management Practices

Anil B Jambekar

Total Quality Management (TQM) has been experiencing great deal of attention.  It has become the competitive strategy of choice.  However, a seeming lack of a unifying framework, TQM appears to be fragmented into isolated approaches.  For an organization to achieve business success, various quality initiatives should be mutually reinforcing.  Implication is that managing relationship among several TQM component programs is at least as important as the implementation of the individual programs.  In contrast to many other tools, system dynamics tools facilitate management of relationships in a proactive way.  The focus of this paper is to advance this role of system dynamics.  Several relevant processes and critical initiatives generally confronted by an organization engaged in phasing in quality management are captured in distinct casual frameworks.  The paper also explores how and when system dynamics tool can be leveraged with commonly known quality management tools by quality professionals.

System Dynamics Analysis of Experience Gained During Personal Quality Improvement Projects

Anil B Jambekar

This paper shows the connection between the softer tools of system dynamics and the foundation of personal quality.  This accomplished by portraying the problems and issues students experienced while engaging in individual personal quality improvement projects using system archetypes or casual loop diagramming.  A major objective of the improvement project was to provide a critical and fuller glimpse of organizational quality by building on personal experience.  Because the feedback from own actions is rapid and unambiguous while working within the framework of personal quality improvement project, it becomes possible to learn about the important systemic issues in a relatively short duration.  Furthermore the visual representation of the issues using system dynamic tools preserved the learned lessons.

A Grey Simulated Model for Urban Strategy Planning on SocioEconomyEnvironmentR&D

Geng Jijin

This paper is concerned with urban strategy planning on macro SocioEconomyEnvironmentR&D.  Based on Grey System Theory, a urban grey simulated model (UGSM) has been established.  The base run shows that it is high efficient in system action fitting.  Taking a city as an example, some strategy policy tests are illustrated and main conclusion are presented.

Total Quality Management – Managing Change in Manufacturing: Contrasting the Problem Solving Approach Employed in a Quality Cost Related Initiative with Soft System Methodology

W Keogh

An ongoing study, in Company X, has been underway for some three years. The management team in the company has been working on a program of continuous improvement which includes changing attitudes and work conditions in an effort to improve productivity; cut the costs of achieving quality or the costs of producing non-quality; and generally make the organization more competitive.

The areas which form the basis of the management of change focus are: Quality, Communications, Equipment/Resources, Health and Safety, and Training. Over and above these, a sixth category, which highlights the importance of problem identification within the operator environment, was included; consequently, potential future change activities and internal change agents could be identified. These main areas of research interest, which were identified during the introductory period of study, are all related to a total quality management program. The findings from the phases of the study have implications for strategic policy issues and these may have been, or still need to be, addresses by senior management.

This paper will illustrate one key initiative driven by the management team; explain the context of the initiative; contrast the method used with Soft Systems Methodology; and highlight the immediate outcomes from the initiative. Questions are raised regarding the suitability of the methods employed, the objectives of the initiative are explored, and the broader issues, such as the potential of increased involvement of the workforce, are brought to the fore.

Changes have occurred in this dynamic environment and the company study shows that a number of these can be quantified in some way. The way forward has meant involving people from various work backgrounds, introducing education programs, and improving communications. However, in order to use the available staff potential, methods, such as SSM, could be employed to allow creativity and greater understanding of the issues involved in order to make meaningful changes. The illustrations used in this paper will outline the outcomes effected by the management team’s efforts.

Neural Network Heuristics for Controlling System Dynamics Model

Dong Hwan Kim, IK Jae Chang

Many System Dynamics researchers have found that decision-makers have difficulties in controlling System Dynamics model which represent complex social reality.  This means that heuristics employed by decision-markers are not appropriate for controlling dynamic social problems.  As alternative ways for understanding and controlling System Dynamics models, various mathematical methods have been suggested.
Some simulation-based experiment demonstrated the possibility of decision-makers’ learning ability.  For instance, the experiment performed by Sterman showed that game players’ performance was improved slowly as their experiences are accumulated.  The slow learning process is often regarded as indicating the limitation of human intelligence.  On the contrary, it may be interpreted as indicating a potential power of human intelligence or heuristics.
In previous studies, decision-makers’ heuristics are formulated in simple decision rule.  Such decisions rules failed to incorporate the learning ability of decision-makers.  To experiment the learning ability of decision-makers, this study replace decision-makers with neural network model.  The neural networks are recognized as a representative of human intelligence by many students in artificial intelligence.  In this study, neural network heuristic are applied to two System Dynamics models; Meadow’s commodity cycle (1969) and Sterman’s model of the Kondratiev cycle, or long wave (1985).  Neural networks model have demonstrated a surprising performance in learning and pattern recognition.
In addition to neural networks applications, this study demonstrated technical feasibilities in IBM environments using Smalltalk.

System Dynamics Concepts Applied to the Development and Quality Assurance of Environmental Information Systems

O M Knol

At RIVM environmental models are not only used for exploration but also for production, whereby environment reports are provided on a yearly base.  Using models in a production situation raises the demand on quality to which model must comply.  A robust “multiuser, multipurpose information system” is needed rather than a set of separate models.  The demands on quality include:

– full reproducibility of results
– high performance (speed, reliability, uniform user interface)
– complete documentation to assure ease in maintenance
– explicit regulation of responsibility for and access data.
These demands have called for a method of software development that can assure the quality resulting information system.  This paper describes the method which RIVM’s Laboratory for waste Materials and Emissions has developed.  Important elements are:
– Development of information in a cyclic “evolutionary” process, consisting of a number of stage, as opposed to a linear succession of steps.  The end-users (environmental specialists) participate in all stages.  The development cycles can also be considered as feedback loops.  The quality of specification appears to be a key factor in the behavior of the system. 
– Management and modeling of data preceding the modeling of functional relations.
– Facilitating the testing of the resulting, complex information system by creating a description in the form of adapted casual loop diagrams.
The laboratory is now in the process of obtaining ISO 9001 certification for its information management based on this method of software development.

A Soft Systems Management Approach to Energy and Conservation for the Hotel Industry of Cyprus

Costas Y Konis

The paper describes an attempt to tackle the problem of energy management and conversation of the hotel industry of the Island of Cyprus utilizing the Soft Systems Methodology.  Hotel industry is one of the most dynamic industries of the Island and contributes heavily towards its national income.
The paper describes all steps of all the methodology applied that is: the development of the rich picture, the identification of issues for investigation, the development of conceptual models and the derivation of useful, feasible and culturally acceptable recommendations.
The paper concludes that Soft Systems Methodology is an excellent means for tackling complex problems involving human activity systems and that  is certainly suitable for improving problematic situations in energy management and conversation.

Applying the principles of Human Computer Interaction to the Design of Management Flight Simulators

W Brain Kreutzer, David P Kreutzer

Engaging managers in facilitated team model building and using all the principles of system dynamics to obtain high quality models are useful prerequisites to creating a good management flight simulator. No amount of interface improvement should substitute for or mask a poorly designed or understood model.  However, there is a great deal of learning going on in the field of Human Computer Interaction that we in the system dynamics community can learn from in order to improve the effectiveness of our management flight simulators and model based learning workshop.  This paper will explain how we can apply the principles of Human Computer Interaction to building management flight simulators.

A Basic Business Loop as Starting Template for Customized Business-Process-Engineering Models

U La Roche

Conventional Business-Process-Engineering (BPE) consists of cautious small step improvement in succession to optimize target figures such as financial outcomes, delivery time and leadtimes.
To support BPE for fast and focused change, a simulation model on top and outside of MRP-system in place is proposed.  Useful business models for this task include the whole process from clients billing to supplier paying.  A continuous flow simulation allows to cover the long time horizons of several weeks to years to include the bottom-line-effects relevant for decisions.
Outside of existing MRP-systems means that alternatives of structuring the business-process can be assessed without the heavy reprogramming and database support needed, if you do this with the MRP-systems in place.  We use process-chain-models with the appropriate flow calculations instead of the discrete-event type calculations of MRP-systems.  This simplification pays out in better focus on essentials such as dynamic control of the process-chains for the price of not going into the details of single piecewise operations.
A generic template as a starting model is used to cover the many-facetted problems of business-process-engineering in order to prepare the follow-up with a professional custom-model and simulation-tool for the real company’s problems. Any final customized model is of course highly company specific.

Is there a Cause-Effect Relationship Between Unemployment and Taxation Level?

U La Roche

The debate on the causes of present high and apparently staying unemployment is just starting to get the grand picture together.
A preliminary investigation of a two-sector economic model is presented.  Its focus is the interactions between wages in the productive sector and rents and subsides in the non-productive sector.
Aging populations, late entry into the labor market, a growing administration headcount and widespread subsidizing add up to taxes and other fiscal measures.  Their driving force is modelled  to be the recompensation expected relative to the wages before tax of the productive sector.
There are three different behavioral-modes identified:
– full employment policy will result in a stable employment inverse to the expected recompensation of the Non-Producing sector.
– hire and fire policy will get a stable mean taxation level, but with oscillations of some twenty years duration at least.
– preventative hire and fire will induce catastrophical changes of employment and tax-income.
A weak interaction composite model of this two-sector model into an available longwave model further reinforces, that a high rent-and-subsidizing expectation kills employment and reduces the so called self-ordering of capital production in the longwave model context, except for businesses with high profits.  Also, the longwave periods is influenced strongly in this composite experiment.
The context for interpretations of the results is proposed to be the national economies with their taxation in global competition.

Social Theory and System Dynamics Practice

David C Lane

This paper explores the social theories implicit in past, present, and future (envisaged) SD practice.  Previous work on the theory of SD is first reviewed.  A framework for studying social theories is then introduced; the assumptions underlying its axes discussed and the four paradigms of social theory which these yield described.  Various grouping of SD practice are then defined and these are placed in the framework, primarily within functionalist sociology.  Motivated by alternative paradigms, two new and potentially productive forms of practice are envisaged.  The term “holon dynamics” is proposed to describe them both.  These are subjectivist and they are described briefly along with the new type of research approach necessary to advance them.

A number of conclusions arise from this analysis.  Firstly, that Forrester’s basic conception of the field was spread across the schools of Social System Theory and Integrative Theory and resulted in a period of interpretive division regarding validation.  Secondly, that the resulting move by some practitioners towards more subjective forms of practice should be seen not as revolutionary, as some external observers assert, but as an evolutionary extension of the basic conception.  Thirdly, that some current SD practice may, and the envisaged forms certainly do, indicate that the field is not wedded to a particular theory but rather that the method of SD can be used in different paradigms.  This conclusion implies a greater need to be aware of, and consistent with, the social theoretic axioms implicit in SD activities if practitioners are to sustain a Kuhnian ‘normal science’ – hence reinforcing the paper’s consideration of social theory.

The Greater Whole Towards a Synthesis of SD and SSM

David C Lane, Rogelio Oliva

This paper concerns two system-based approached for organizational intervention – soft system methodology (SSM) and system dynamics (SD).  After a brief description of the theoretical and methodological assumptions of the two a partial critique is presented.
SSM is strong on the generation and representation of diverse perspectives, or Weltanschauugen and attempts to deal with the socio-political elements of an intervention. But SSM is weak in ensuring what is termed here ‘dynamics coherence’: consistency between the instinctive behavior resulting form proposed changes and behaviour deduced from ideas on causal structure. Hence, in situations where causal structure and instinctive behaviour are meaningful, the intervention is blind to the dynamic complexity of the proposed changes.
SD examines the causal structures capable of explaining and exploring the dynamics interactions of different policies.  However, whilst SD emphasises the need for a clear issue focus for a study, the approach has little theory regarding the generation and explicit representation of diverse issues.  A proposal is made regarding the dove-tailing of the two to form a synthesis.  After an SSM intervention a second stage is described.  This continues the socio-political analysis and draws on the previous Weltanschauuugen.  It operates within a new Weltanschauuug which values dynamic consistency of the holon which is able to represent the proposed changes.  A model of this holon is constructed using SD to represent causal structure and deduce behavior.  Using SD methods, the changes are thus rendered ‘systemically desirable’ in the additional sense that dynamic consistency has been confirmed.  With due regard to respective theories and the preservation of ontological consistency, ‘holon dynamics is utilized to describe the process.
This paper closes with reflections on the proposed synthesis, particular emphasis being attached to the need for theoretical consistency when mixing tools.

Only Connect!

Part I: An annotated Selection from the Literature on the Problem Structuring Methods of ‘Soft’ Operational Research

David C Lane, Jonathan Rosenhead

What other activities and techniques exist that are interest to system dynamicists?  Are there possibilities for system dynamics itself to contribute to them?  These questions have been of interest to the authors for some time and now the 1994 System Dynamics Conference is helping to advance the debate. This paper tries to help things along.

We consider two areas of interest: the problem structuring techniques of ‘soft’ operational research and the wide range of system thinking concepts employed in the systems movement.  Both involve valuable ideas and experiences.  Both have a more European-orientated perspective, in contrast to the mainly-US viewpoint of system dynamics.  In this two-part paper we therefore offer a selection from the literature of the two as well as brief annotations.

In this first part we consider the emergence of a range of practical problem structuring methods, their grounding in respective theories of organizational interventions and group processes, their creators’ concern with participation and the political and power consequences of their work and, finally, the current debates in the area.  In the second part (q.v.) we turn to systems thinking.

Of course, this is only our own selection but our aim is to encourage connection between these areas of activity.  We have no doubt that they will be mutually beneficial.

Only Connect!

Part II: An annotated Selection from the Literature on the Breadth and Scope of Systems Thinking

David C Lane, Mike C Jackson

What other activities and techniques exist that are interest to system dynamicists?  Are there possibilities for system dynamics itself to contribute to them?  These questions have been of interest to the authors for some time and now the 1994 System Dynamics conference is helping to advance the debate.  This paper tries to help things along.
We consider two areas of interest: the problem structuring techniques of ‘soft’ operational research and the wide range of system thinking concepts employed in the systems movement.  Both involve valuable ideas and experiences.  Both have a more European-orientated perspective, in contrast to the mainly-US viewpoint of system dynamics.  In this two-part paper we therefore offer a selection from the literature of the two as well as brief annotations.

The first (q.v.) deals with ‘soft’ OR.  In the second part we consider ‘systems thinking’.  Although this terms seems to have been appropriated by the system dynamics community it can be interpreted very differently.  We therefore try to convey the breadth and scope of the intellectual and practical endeavours that define the systems movement and explore the range of holistic ideas that people have found useful thinking about and acting in the world.
Of course, this is only our own selection but our aim is to encourage connection between these areas of activity.  We have no doubt that they will be mutually beneficial.

Mad, Bad and Dangerous To Know?

The evolution and limitation of the ‘generic structure’ concept in system dynamics

David C Lane, Chris Smart

This paper trace the evolution of the ‘generic structure’ concept in system dynamics, and discusses the different practical uses to which they have been put.  By reviewing previous work on the concept we have identical three different views of what a generic structure is and, hence, what transferability means.  These different views are distinguishable in practice as well as in concept. Examination of these interpretations shows that the assumptions behind them are quite dissimilar.  From this analysis we argue that it is no longer useful to treat ‘generic structures’ since a single concept as the unity it implies is only superficial.  We conclude that the concept needs unbundling so that different assumptions about transferability of structure can be made explicit, and the role of ‘generic structures’ as generalisable theories of dynamic behavior in system dynamic behavior in system dynamics theory and practice can be debated and clarified.

I Can’t Believe It’s a System Dynamics Model!

Paul A Langley, Erik R Larsen

This system dynamics community has been active in developing model-supported cases studies, gaming simulations and management flight simulator for use in learning laboratories and student workshops.  As multimedia environments are being introduced, system dynamics based learning tools are beginning to look increasingly like many commercially developed games.
Developments within the commercial video game markets, including new mass storage media (CD-I, CD-ROM) and multimedia technologies have resulted in a host of new business and policy related games and simulations becoming available.  In this paper, we examine the possibilities for using commercially available games in a system dynamics context.  We demonstrate those opportunities through an example, SimCity, a well-known commercial strategy game.
How can the system dynamics community contribute to these new exciting developments in the area of commercial edutainment products? How can we make use of the current interest in strategy games to get more people introduced to system dynamics?

Modeling Electricity Privatization in the UK

Erik R Larsen, Derek w Bunn

There seem to be several advantages in using System Dynamics modeling to understand the behavior of newly privatized industries.  System dynamics models can develop insights on the possible evolution of the industry from public to private ownership and from protected to competitive markets.  The implications for business strategy and for the regulatory framework can be examined under various scenarios.
As part of the privatization of the UK electricity industry a spot market to clear the electricity market has been created.  The main reason for the spot market is to set the half hourly price at which electricity is traded.  A further aspect is that it allows the regulator to set incentives to increase or decrease the generating capacity according to what he believes is necessary in the long run.  We have modeled capacity investment in this newly created industry in the basis of testing its theoretical design
Our model focuses on how long term development of capacity utilization is likely to evolve, how much influence the regulator will have under the current regulatory framework, and how this framework should be modified to give the regulator more influence on the market to prevent cycles of over and under capacity.

Living Systems Dynamics: A New Approach for Knowledge Representation

Stephane Le Peutrec, Michele Courant

In the perspective of formulizing abstractions as a fundamental facet of cognition, we study knowledge in its relationship to the biological substratum from which its outcomes.  Our research is mainly founded on the works of F.J. Varela concerning the autonomy of living systems (autopoiesis) and of S. Lupasco on antagonism.
We show how autopoiesis brings a new enlightment upon knowledge, by turning representation problems to organization problems and how the autopoietic dynamics of living systems leads to a new formulation of machine learning.  By developing new internal dynamics, a system does not learn to know its environment, but to adapt himself to it.
It follows that modeling an autopoietic system requires to focus, no more on sharing of semantic universes between a system and its environment, but on structural models producing behavioral regularities of the system in answer to environmental perturbations.  Autopoiesis seems therefore more suited for developing adaptive and complex systems, especially when an exhaustive specification of the operating factors is prohibitive, as well as for providing a unified framework for modeling cognition.  Moreover it provides a paradigmatic foundation to the design of massively parallel system.

From Task To Goal Orientation   Changing the Culture of Public Sector Agencies A System Dynamics Approach

Keith T Linard

Over the past decade, the Australian labor Government has cut the size of the Australian federal budget sector from some 32% to around 24 % of Gross Domestic Product.  This cut in public sector intervention in the market-place has been achieved while the Government has continued to focus on achievement of its social justice objectives.
Central to those changes has been the Financial Management Improvement  (FMIP), initiated in 1984 with the establishment of a small management reform team drawn from the department of Finance and the public service board.
Fundamentally, the FMIP sought to effect a change in bureaucratic and government culture, shifting the prevailing paradigm from input accounting to output and outcomes management.  In responding to this challenge, the FMIP unit in the Department of finance adopted a ‘systems thinking’ approach, initially using qualitative casual loops analyses and subsequently dynamic simulation modeling, to identify high value leverage points in bureaucratic government. processes.  Qualitative and quantitative system dynamics modeling is now starting to be used in the broader policy advising areas of government.
This paper presents an overview of key elements of the Australian federal public sector reforms from the perspective of systems thinking and summarizes significant recent uses of system dynamics modeling in public sector management and policy analysis.

The Use of the SaGa Tool for Scenario-Based Planning

Edward Lewis

This paper describes the scenario generator (SaGa) tool that prepares “plausible” futures for use in developing – or testing – managerial plans.  SaGa generated adaptive, written scenarios based upon some of the power systems thinking.
SaGa produces scenarios from the combination of textual and numeric values that are linked into cascades of formulae or decision tables.  It provides a written description of the implications of using different sets of input values in a model of complex systems behavior.  Managers with preferences for verbal material can use these scenarios to consider what preparations should be made to achieve their preferred future.

The use of iThink in Scenario Planning in the Building Industry In South Africa

Llewellyn B Lewis

Since 1990, South Africa has been undergoing a paradigm shift from authoritarian rule to a new democratic society.  Typically, the process of transition has been conditioned and shaped by historical circumstances which are unique to South Africa but nevertheless, shaped and patterned in predictable ways.  The building industry has an important role to play in the political transition process, basically because of the need for reconstruction and socio-economic development, giving rise to the struggle between the contending visions of redistribution and growth.  All the contending visions for the new South Africa identify the four inner-related objectives of the need for growth, for equity, for political participation and for stability.
The affordable housing market has an aura of destiny and paradox about it.  On the one hand, the housing backlog of some 1,14-million units appears to be an unsurmountable problem and on the other, it provides an amazing and historically important opportunity.  Through the provision of affordable housing at scale for the under-privileged, many of the objectives of a new South Africa can be achieved, in creating massive employment in redistribution income, in wealth-creation and in promoting stable family life, which underpins a healthy society and promotes nation-building.  Nevertheless, the affordable housing problem is bedeviled by many complex issues which defy simple analysis and which require a systems approach.
In the search for leverage, a systems model, using the ithink soft-ware package was developed of the building industry in South Africa.  It related activity per market segment, to affordability, the need for and effect of subsides, employment creation, housing stock and backlog and home-ownership.  The model challenged and clarified the mental models of participants in a scenario building process, identified the major obstacles and the major leverage for a trend-break in the building and for breaking the housing log jam.
In the model, it was possible to link hard data such as building activity, gross domestic product, housing backlog and need, home-ownership, employment and subsides. with ‘soft issues’ such as the need for leadership and vision and for establishing a Housing Accord.  The Systems Model enabled the participants to see the impact of alternative strategies over a 20 year planning horizon.  Sensitivity analysis was applied to varying levels of subsides demonstrating the impact on the housing backlog and building industry activity.
The “ithink” strategic modeling package provides an extremely useful tool in scenario building and in challenging the mental models of leading influences and decision-makers in the building industry.  In particular, it highlighted the need for a gradually phased increase (and timeous decrease) in affordable housing delivery, in order to avoid “over shoot” and “over correction”, with the potential of putting the system into dangerous fluctuation.  In the scenario planning process, the use of the model information enabled some 60 participants in a Think Tank process, to obtain a much clearer view of the future of the building industry and to use the process in ‘creating a memory of the future‘ and thus, to have some influence on housing policy and strategy in South Africa.

Modeling Interactions Between Autonomous Agents

Michel Ludwig, Michele Courant

In the framework of designing programming environments based on the paradigm of autonomous agent systems, we conceived an interaction model based on the notions of charge and force.
In a multi-agent system, an agent is defined as autonomous entity composed of an agent’s kernel and charges forming an envelope around this kernel.  An agent perceives the other agents exclusively through sensors attached to his charges.  Therefore all the dynamics of the system is governed by charges.
The introduced interaction model supports two kinds of dynamics: an internal dynamics obtained by changing inside an agent, and an external dynamics obtained by the agents movement through the environment.  These dynamics enable the agents to vary jointly the forces acting on them and the forces they generate.

Because the high level semantics of the charges is not fixed by the model, the model may be used as well for modelling high level interactions, like psychological relations, as for modelling low level interactions, like elementary interactions used in artificial life.

Strategic Analysis of Global Telecoms Service Provision

Tom Lynch, Sonia Skelton, Michael H Lyons

One of the largest growth areas in telecommunications is global business communications. In today’s global economy, companies want to communicate across the globe through a single service provider, in a seamless manner between all their locations.  For this to happen the service provider must operate in markets which have differing cultures, regulatory frameworks and levels of competition.
We present here a system dynamics model developed using the IThink software package, which investigate some of the major issues of global service provision.  The world is segmented into four regions within which there can be distinctly different conditions.  The model captures the complexity of obtaining a customer in a region and providing a global service in time scale which will satisfy the requirement for connectivity between world-wide locations.  The degree to which customer’s requirement can be met will be dependent on the presence the provider has throughout the world. 
Initial results indicate that the perception of a provider’s service has a strong influence on market share within its home region and also the other region of the world.  However, this can lead to scenarios where a strategy to improve service offering without due regard to provisioning constraints can lead to a loss of market share. 
The modeling activity delivered three major benefits: it has provided valuable insight into a key telecommunications markets; it has demonstrated the applicability of system dynamics to telecommunications strategy, and; it has highlighted areas for development which will provide future value.

Tactical vs. Strategic Approached to Competitive Positioning – An Example from the Telecommunications Industry

James M Lyneis

Many firms take actions which affect their competitive position without considering the longer-term strategic consequences of those decisions.  This is particularly true of many recent downsizing initiatives, which have tended to be tactical in the sense of being reactive, focusing on pieces of the business, and with short time horizons.  This paper uses examples from a dynamic simulation model of a telecommunication company to illustrate the dangers of such a “tactical” approach which is anticipatory, holistic, and long-term in its viewpoint.

Preparing for a Competitive Environment – The Prospects for American’s Electricity Utilities

James M Lyneis, Carl G Bespolka, Ben Tucker

America’s vertically integrated electric utilities will soon face the prospect of direct competition.  Initially, this will occur at the “upstream” side of their business to provide the supply of electric power to the utility’s system.  Later, the “downstream”, retail side of the business will open up, especially for large industrial and commercial customers.  After many years as a monopoly with essentially cost-plus pricing, competition will pose a significant threat to these high cost utilities.  Fortunately, unlike previously deregulated industries, electric utility have a number of years in which to prepare themselves for competition, and the experiences of their forerunners to guide their preparation.  This paper first present an analysis of the outlook of a typical, but hypothetical, eclectic utility in the face of such competition, and then examines a range of options for preparing for a competitive environment.  These analysis show that the difference in present value to shareholders between successful and unsuccessful strategies can be as much as $150 million (20%0 over a 10-year period, and $ 1 billion (40%) over a 25 -year period.

Evaluating Optimization Model Based Decision Support Systems in the Framework of a system Dynamics Based Game

Biswajit Mahanty, Pratap K J Mohapatra

Evaluating optimization model based decision support system is a complex task.  Once an optimization model is built, one is not sure how to compare the effectiveness of two competing optimization models.  One is also not sure how the model results will fare when they are actually implemented in practice.  This paper lays out a procedure for evaluating optimization models in the framework of a system dynamics based game.  Using the suggested procedure, a number of optimization model based system are evaluated.  Investigations are then carried out on the effect of such decisions support system on the performance of the game participants.  The proposed procedure opens up the possibilities of developing realistic and credible optimizations models by testing them for their effectiveness in the context of a specific problem situation.

Integration of Knowledge-Based Systems and System Dynamics Models for Decision Support in Innovation Management

Frank H Maier

Traditional models of innovations diffusion ignore the complexity and dynamics underlying the process of diffusion.  Usually these models consider only a single management decisions variable, e.g., price of advertising, but they assume these variables to be exogenous elements.  The models seek for strategies to optimize the cumulative profits without consideration of the highly independent influencing elements.  Their aim is normative decision support, but they use models, which do not appropriately represent the structural fundamentals of the problem.
The use of the system dynamics methodology allows the development of more complex and detailed models to investigate the process of innovations diffusion.  These models can enhance the insight in the problem structure and increase understanding of the complexity, the dynamics and the impact of management decisions.  But the development of adequate system dynamics models requires expert knowledge and plenty of time.
The paper presents a knowledge-based approach to System Dynamics Modeling to shorten the process model building and to make the knowledge about innovation management available for many users.  It consists of two parts: A knowledge based system with the traditional components for dialog, explanation, knowledge representation and inference is used to configure System Dynamics Models, and a modelbase of different modules that represent the generic structures of typical innovation management problems.  The knowledge about the innovation problems is included in the different modules and in the knowledge base of the knowledge-based system.  In dialog with the user the knowledge based system analyses the problem structure, chooses the relevant modules and finally configures the model that then can be used for further analysis through the problem owner.

Optimal Control Modeling with Vensim: Applications to Public Finance

Rolf R Mantel, Juan C Rego, Pedro Goyena

The purpose of this paper is to improve the results obtained by Fernandez and Mantel (1989), referred to the price control inconvenience in the application of a stabilization plan for Argentina’s hyperinflation in the Eighties.  For the model’s correct translation is checked by replications of the original experiments.  Secondly, an intuitive policy suggested by the shape of the original experiments, that proposes a timely starting of the original price control policy is tested, achieving better results.  Finally, an optimization process, currently available in Vensim programme, penalizes, on the one hand, the oscillations which are shown by the path that the instantaneous inflation follows to reach the equilibrium inflation rate; on the other hand, the slowness to reach that equilibrium point.  Vensim’s advise nearly matches previous intuituve timing for starting to control prices.

A Comparison of Regional Models Using Different Levels of Geographic Aggregations

Norman L Marshall, Stephan J C Lawe

We have developed several models linking land use changes and transportation for different regions with populations ranging from 100,000 to 2,000,000.  The models are uses to long-term planning for land use, transportation, and air quality. The level of detail desired by clients requires that the models have a high degree of spatial disaggregation, typically several hundred zones.
The spatial detail is a strength of the models, but it is achieved at cost.  Model development is time-consuming and expensive.  Even on the fastest microcomputers, model run time is measured in hours. Testing new models structures and making structural enhancement is slow and difficult.  The complexity of the models inhibits experimentation and learning by clients.  Simpler models are needed to aid in prototype development and in communication and training.
We compared results of policy simulations from regional models with three levels of spatial disaggregation.  The most detailed models are as described above.  For a highly-aggregated example, we developed a system dynamics model with two concentric rings using STELLA software.  Finally we evaluate two simplified grid models with intermediate levels of spatial disaggregation models.
The STELLA model is able to demonstrate some of the policy results, and is an excellent tool for model development.  In some ways the grid model combine the worst of both worlds.  They are neither simple nor fully detailed.  The detailed models exhibit the most rich behaviors.  We are developing techniques to move from STELLA structures directly to the more disaggregated model

A Conventional Versus a System Dynamics Approach to Planning

Ali N Mashayekhi

In the conventional view, planning is a process in which various goals for the future are set and action programs are formulated to achieve those goals.  Future goals and appropriate plans are formulated based on analysis of environment forces and audits of internal conditions or strengthens and weaknesses.  Then, plans are implemented to achieve the goals.  But, in the System Dynamics view planning is a decisive formulation of policies or decision making riles which will enable the system to evolve from its present state to the desired one.  The design of decision making rules is within a framework of feedback and based on consideration of the fact that new conditions will lead to new decisions and actions as the based  on consideration of the fact that new condition will lead to new decisions and actions as the system moves towards it’s desired states.  The implication of these two views in planning is discussed with respect to management of a company within a growing market.

Management Games for Group Decision Making in a Dynamic Environment

Peter M Milling, Frank Lehmann

Management games are very powerful teaching and training devices which however, sometimes suffer from a direct and usually one-to-one interaction between player and the model.
The paper presents a management simulator for decisions occurring during the innovation process.  Several groups of players represent the boards of directors of virtual enterprises that compete with each other.  The computer model serves only as a clearing device to coordinate the decision consequences on the supply side and on customer demand.
Technically, the game is based on a simulation model written in Professional Dynamo.  It has an interface for the preparation of the simulation results and the communication with the players, that was realizes using Microsoft Excel.
A simulation model for generating data for management gaming must comprise a realistic structure and stable policy rules.  The players should be able to use their professional knowledge and their business experience.  The computer-model in the paper represents a microworld for testing different strategies, to experience different forms of behavior, and for improving the understanding og the consequences of decision making in a dynamic environment.

Extending System Dynamics for Environmental Research and Management

Ian Moffatt

System dynamics modeling is used in many disciplines to examine the various ways in which dynamic system function.  At the University of Stirling system dynamics has been used since 1978 to model environment processes and contribute to the management of environmental problems.  These two aspects of environmental research haven been reinforced by new developments in computing technology and by greater awareness of the importance of environmental problems by both politicians and lay people.  At present, however, system dynamicists have remained aloof from many developments in computing technology and it will be argued that that could be failing to make a major contribution to the understanding and resolution of environmental problems.
The main thrust of this paper is to argue that system dynamics needs to be extended into a more general framework so that detailed investigations of major environmental problems can be undertaken.  In particular it is suggested that system dynamics needs to develop dynamic models to interact with several areas of information technology, especially database, quantitative methods, geographical information system (GIS) and experts systems in order to contribute further to the understanding and management of environmental problems.  This argument is illustrated with a description of a prototype, integrated and general  environmental research and management system (GERMS) developed explicitly to address the problem of modeling and management water quality in the forth estuary, Scotland.  Some of the results of this research and its implications for environmental management are discussed.  It is suggested that further development along these lines could be made to ensure that system dynamics make an even greater contribution to try to resolve many of the environmental problems which surrounds us.

Safety Hazard Control in the Workplace: A Dynamic Model

Jonathan D Moizer

The work described in this paper was carried out as part of a study into occupational health and safety information systems, and the simulation package used was Powersim. Systems thinking and practice are tools which can contribute greatly to better safety management (Waring 1990). The paper presents a generic model to illustrate the life cycle of a workplace hazard, from its conception to its final control. The greater the number of uncontrolled hazards in a working environment at any one time, the greater the likelihood of accidents being generated. The rate at which hazards can be identified and controlled will have a great bearing on the overall safety of the workplace. The exclusive use of a reactive approach to hazard control in the following system models proves not to be sufficient in substantially controlling hazards.

Management of Fiscal and Monetary Policy (The Case of Developing Countries)

Mohammad T Mojtahedzadeh

A system dynamics model is presented to analyze fiscal and monetary policies.  The model describes an economy which suffers from infrastructure shortage.  Further, government is responsible for the development of infrastructure.  The model demonstrates the contradiction between fiscal policy and monetary policy in offsetting the rise of inflation.  The contradiction can be addressed in terms of time horizon—from a short-run and a long-run perspective.  In order to control inflation, a monetary policy may suggest a reduction in the rate of increase in money supply.  This can be done by restricting dudget deficit based on inflation. In contrast, a fiscal policy may suggest that in order to control inflation, aggregate supply (of goods) must be increased.  An increase in aggregate supply requires infrastructure; thus, budget deficit expansions is unavoidable.  The model also shows that a policy which restricts new project initiation based on government budget availability causes a lower inflation rate, particularly in the long run, without decreasing the production growth rate.

To Shower or Not to Shower: A Behavioural Model of Competition of Shared Resources

John D W Morecroft, Erik R Larsen, Alessandro Lomi, Ari Ginsberg

Most system dynamicists have used a simple shower model to explain feedback and to introduce cyclical dynamics behavior characteristic of a balancing loop. The damped system’s temperature is relatively easy to manage.  But what if we assume the existing of the two showers sharing the same limited supply of hot water?  It turns out- as one might expect – that it is much harder to control the water temperature because a person managing one shower is unaware of the other shower or it’s occupant, yet must react to the aggregate temperature outcome resulting from a joint ‘management’ effort.
We discuss how a single two-shower model can provide a useful metaphor for a wide range of real managerial problems.  The model is used to illustrate the causes and consequences of interdependence in processes of resources allocation, competition within and among organization.

Qualitative Analysis of Financial Models

Thomas F Morgan, William M Ammentorp

Financial modeling is generally founded on the premise that financial managers and fiscal policy makers operate ‘by the numbers’.  Indeed the assumption is so deeply ingrained as to shape much of spreadsheet software to conform with accounting practices.  It is the thesis of this paper that there is a qualitative side to financial decision making which translate the mathematical expressions of accounting into the commonsense language of mangers.
The research reported in this paper examines the relationship between conventional financial models and the linguistic representations given them by financial managers.  The research takes form of a STELLA model of corporate finance with a HYPERCARD interface.  In the interface, the authors employ the propositions of fuzzy set theory to incorporate such linguistic hedges as “too high”, “way out of line”, and others found in common management speech.  The resulting model assists financial managers in linking their qualitative judgments to the numerical parameters of a typical corporate financial model.  As the model runs, it allows managers to adjust their financial policies on a quarterly time scale – while recording each person’s decisions as related to model performance. 
The authors report the decision making practices of a sample of corporate executives as a set of qualitative propositions.  There take the form of statements like, “If market share is falling rapidly, and leverage is fairly high, product line expansion is required.”  Such propositions take on a dual role; they can be translated into average numerical values to control a Stella simulation – or they can be simulated as a purely qualitative model.
The significance of the qualitative thesis lies in the new perspectives it offers to those who study and practice financial management.  The thesis offers a clear connection between the arcane world of the analyst or accountant and the complex environment of the working manager.  It fosters a dialog across professional boundaries that may well result in more accurate models and more effective practitioners.

In Search Of Learning Organization Within the Australian Hotel Industry

Michael Morrison, Fern Marriott

The concept of “organizational learning” offers a rich opportunity for not only rethinking theories of organizational behavior (OB) but also reexamining the relationship between OB and financial performance.  This paper examines an attempt to operationalise organizational learning by conducting a field study in the Australian hotel industry.  The research process is described.  Four models from the literature and out own feedback model provided the basis for initial analysis.  Preliminary results suggest that the methodology is not only useful in differentiating hotels but in promoting new questions that need to be addressed.  However the models provided little more than a check list.  As a consequence, we have constructed a composite model that proved for a more useful testing of the triggers and dynamics of organizational learning.

Short Term Manpower Planning: Time Basic Simulations vs Systems Dynamics Approach

G I Mould

The bulk of the literature on manpower planning models deals with long term planning and strategy evaluation.  The most common approach is to use a Markov type model.  This can readily model wastage and promotion rates, together with training policies and can be used to evaluate the longer term impact of personal policies.  However many manpower planning problems span a much shorter time period and precise modeling of training and promotion strategies is inappropriate.  This paper presents such problem.  Staff planning procedures were required to reduce a large but temporary backlog of work.  Two modeling approaches are contrasted: a time base simulation (a decision support system approach) and a system dynamics approach.  The simulation model was encoded in a spreadsheet this enabled management to easily make alternatives, to the model data.  The systems dynamics model presented a graphical representation of the problem which made all the modeling assumptions explicit.  Both models could assess management alternatives, the spreadsheet model was  able to provide very detailed information, whilst the main strength of the system dynamics model was its ability to provide more general results for the longer term.  With both approaches the cooperation of management was essential for suggesting practical solutions.

Investigating the Dynamics of Employee Participation

Jose Edgar S Mutuc

There has been an increased interest in teams and empowerment of working groups in management literature yet some researchers note that little has been done to define and analyse the critical factors that explain the variations of their performances as well as the participation progamme itself.
This paper presents an initial investigation of the interfacing factors in participation, and its construct, motivation.  The system archetypes in the participation system are first developed using recognized relationships in social science literature.  Their corresponding balancing loops are later inferred largely from conflicting accounts and observations of the participating process.  Some of the basic loops that are presented include the Organizational Improvement Loop, the Worker Environment Loop, the Tug-o-War Control Loop and the contribution sharing Loop.  A simulation model of the Organizational Improvement Loop is then presented with its results.

Powerful Modeling Using Array Variables

Mangne Myrtveit

As the field of system dynamics modeling is expanding, there is a continuos need for improvements of the available tools for developing simulation model.  Lack of features like array variables often lead to modelers to choose third generation languages like C when developing large, realistic models.
This paper describes the array variables of the POWERSIM language.  Comparisons are made to other notation, including mathematics and DYNAMO.  Index variables, array dimensions, subscripts, and functions operating arrays are described.  An important feature of POWERSIM is that the array notation goes well together with standard accumulator-flow diagram (AFD) and casual loop diagram used by system dynamicists.  This makes the use of array variables almost as easy and intuitive as using scalars.
The transition from single scalar values to multi-element array variables is visualized through examples.  Examples include capital stock with machines and building, work force with inexperienced and experienced workers, delay structures programmed as arrays, etc.
The array features of POWERSIM has been used with success in several large-scale projects.  Many modeling problems are not practically solvable without using arrays.  Even models that can be developed using only scalars, sometimes become much easier to develop, explain and maintain when using array’s.  In conclusion, the family of simulation problems that are best solved using a system dynamics tool, has been extended significantly through POWERSIM’s array mechanism.

System Dynamics and Learning Curves

N M Naim, D R Towill

Learning curves are met in a wide variety of industrial situations.  They have become particularly important in modern business strategy because product life cycles are constantly reducing as companies seek to gain competitive advantage via a rapid response to customer demands.  The paper describes a family of System Dynamics models that have been found particularly appropriate in modeling and forecasting the performance of business organisations including the performance of manufacturing systems and the penetration of new product into the market place.
The system dynamics learning curve model have a servomechanism analogue that yields valuable insights into the parameter estimation problem.  The models are required under two quite different circumstances.  The first is based on historical information where the model is to be added to a company or consultancy data base.  The second is for on-line forecasting and control of a business activity.  An enhanced stability least squared error predictor is described which covers both requirements.  The paper concludes with industrial applications of the system dynamics models.

A System Based Methodology for Industry-Level Analysis

Allen Nash

Both strategic planning by senior management in the private sector and industry policy analysis by analysist in the public sector have the need for a systematic approach to develop an understanding the dynamics of their industry.  Currently a systematic attempt at industry-level analysis requires the simultaneous use of a plethora of techniques such as Porter’s five forces for competitive analysis, network approaches to examine inter-organizational transactions, as well as competitive population ecology to examine population dynamics.  Building scenarios of possible consequences of significant strategic moves involves modeling the industry or strategic analysis.  The underlying theory is developed from general system theory, strategic policy analysis.  The aim of the approach is to allow a comprehensive qualitative model of the industry or strategic group to be developed based on graphically representing three subsystems: The social Subsystem, Information Subsystem, and the Physical Subsystem.  The approach has been applied to an examination of the rapidly developing textile industry in Indonesia.

Analytic Queuing Network

Henry Neimeier

A new simulation is proposed to overcome several of the limitation of discrete event simulation.  It is based on the combination of analytic queuing networks and analytic uncertainty modeling.  The analytic queue techniques gives an approximate transient solution to the general inter arrival time and general service time single server queue.  Analytic uncertainty analysis is based on the beta distribution.  It provides the entire uncertainty probability distribution can be fit based on the minimum, mean, maximum, and estimate of the mean and standard deviation statistics.  In a complex results calculation, all that is required is to keep track of these statistics as the calculation proceeds.  At any point in a calculation, the probability distribution of the result can be derived by fitting a beta distribution based on the four statistics.  When analytic queuing is combined with analytic uncertainty, modelling dynamics uncertainty analysis becomes feasible.  The time varying uncertainty distribution in resulting measures of effectiveness can be calculated at any specified time or over nay user specified time interval. The new capability is not available in discrete event simulation.

Analytic Uncertainty Modeling

Henry Neimeier

The analytic uncertainty modeling techniques is useful whenever sensitivity analysis is important.  It provides the entire resulting probability distribution instead of a single uncertain point estimate of the mean.  Both analytic development costs, and computer execution cost are far less than in discrete event simulation.  The price paid is some lack in modeling flexibility.
Discrete simulation requires multiple long simulation runs to obtain a statistically significant point estimate.  The different result values from multiple runs with identical parameter values but different random number seeds, are average to obtain the point estimate of the mean results value.  Conversely, the analytic solution gives the entire resulting probability distribution with minimal calculation.  The analytic solution also considerably simplifies sensitivity analysis.  A single analytic run is done for each input parameter setting.  Discrete event simulation requires multiple runs for each input parameter, to obtain a statistically significant mean result.
In functional economic analysis we are interested in the relative future cost of alternative systems.  There are uncertainties in process performance, resource requirements, cost estimate, investments required, workload, interest and inflation rates.  There is also uncertainty in the future projection of these elements.  Analytic uncertainty modeling provides a simple way of calculating output measure uncertainty from model input parameter uncertainties.

Dynamics Software Life cycle Model

Henry Neimeier

This software life cycle model encompasses initial development, software upgrades, and error maintenance.  The dynamic S**4 model is used to calculate several different development and maintenance strategies.  The impact of Intergrated Computer Assisted Software Engineering (ICASE) tools on development and maintenance cost, schedule, and error rate is quantitatively evaluated.  Alternative techniques for grouping error rate is quantitatively evaluated.  Alternative techniques for grouping errors and functions into releases are evaluated. 

Performance Evaluations Gradient

Henry Neimeier

The performance Evaluation Gradient (PEG) model quantitatively compares the relative merits of government operation versus outsourcing to provide government needed goods and services.  DOD outsourcing is the contracting out of business-related activities to save money.  PEG provides a means to minimize procurement operations and maintenance, and investment costs for a broad range of products and services.  Products are categorized by their associated input parameter values.  The model evaluates the effect of fourteen key economic parameters on per-unit costs.  This section describes the current budgetary environment and the relation of PEG to Functional Economic Analysis (FEA).  PEG is applied to a Local Area Network (LAN) services example and summary results are presented.

Performance Evaluation Surface

Henry Neimeier

The performance evaluation surface relates total cost over a system lifetime to eleven key performance factors.  A system dynamic model is developed to project initial cost and trends over the system lifetime.  A quadric surface (equation with all linear, quadratic, and two factor interaction term) is fit to a complete factorial design of model runs.  These runs span the practical range of factor values.  The equation is a generalized cost model that gives a first-cut cost projection for any product or service.

System Dynamics Model of the Standards Development Process

Henry Neimeier

An overall dynamics model of the standards development process was developed to document savings potentially obtainable from standards improvements in the defense information system.  The model will aid in allocating standards development resources.  Different funding and personnel strategies are quantitatively compared.

Using System Dynamics Simulations Model to forecast Long-Term Urban Water Demand

Huien Niu, Allan A Gillard

Forecasting long-term water demand is essential in water resources planning and management.  A common problem existing in long-term forecasting is that many uncertainties are involved due to the various assumptions which can be used.  Thus, it is highly desirable to give the assumptions explicitly in a long-term forecasting.  By using system dynamics simulations, scenarios can be easily produced based on different assumptions, or by issuing different valued to the parameter and initial variables.  And the assumptions can be stated explicitly and organized systematically by presenting the alternatives in tables.  The frequency distribution of the forecast results, which are obtained from different scenarios, can be derived.  A range of forecasts, rather than a single forecast, can be produced.  This can possibly supply an overall picture of a forecast.

The Public School System: A Dynamic Model of Community Standards, Students, Teachers, and Resources

Conrad F Nuthmann

Problem
Public school systems have server problems that are rooted in the fundamental dynamics of the system. A list of problems include:
-Declining performances
-Diminished Standards
-Relativistic performance assistance
-Student motivation
-Confused objectives and curicula
-Teaching fads
-Cultural heterogeneity
-non-educational responsibilities of schools
-Social pathology
-Administrative confusion
-Disenchantment with public school
Purpose/Objective
The objective of the effort was to reduce the public education system to its basic elements: standards, students, teachers and resources; and then to analyze the dynamics of such a system as it responded to three fundamental kinds of disruption: resources waste, teacher diversion, and student distraction.
Method/Approach
A system dynamics model of a public education system was constructed using STELLA II.  It was exercised according to a 5X4 factorial experimental design that examined the behavior of 12 dependent variables under the 20 conditions specified by the factorial design.
Findings
Results were summarized as a series of parametric plots.  For example, plotting Performance X Cost per Performance point gained across all conditions of degradation revealed a significant interaction effect.  That is, performance cost at high standards are much less per unit of performance gained, (and much less sensitive to disruption) than those at low standards.  Eight major findings are discussed, and a discussion of each of the major identified problems is offered.

Job Opportunity. Wanted: Multi-Skilled Technicians to Join a Six-Person Production Team Operating Highly Automated Equipment. Immediately

Patrick J O’Brian

The combination of global competition and automation has had a major impact on how contemporary businesses serve their customers.  Product development, operations, and sales have all been reshaped by the desire to provide high value products and services to the changing needs of customers.  A corporation’s ability to compete is intimately tied to its ability to continually develop its workforce.  The number of traditional manufacturing jobs in the future will decline; the competency demands will increase.  The paper outlines how one company developed six strategies to ensure that the skills of its workforce kept pace with the innovations of its production technology.

System Dynamics as a Tool to Advance Organizational Learning

Martin R Ochs

Today it can be seen that management of change has become a management of ‘surprise’, in which an enterprise can only survive by recognizing future events in the environment and by acting on that information with appropriate business moves.  The ability to learn about these changes requires a kind of organization that never stands still; moreover, enterprises have to develop their own strengths according to their environmental conditions.

Managerial Learning Laboratories: An Action Research Project for Group Learning

Rogelio Oliva

The purpose of this paper is two fold.  The first is to structure the thinking and theories about managerial learning laboratories as held by the MIT Organizational Learning Center.  The second purpose is to go beyond the utilization of management flight simulators and redefine those theories based on the experience of implementing five managerial learning literature is used to frame some of the results from the study and to generate new models aimed at increasing the effectiveness of managerial learning laboratories as group learning setting.
The paper can be viewed as iteration of action-research, where active participation of the researcher in the problem situation is followed by reflection and learning from the process.  The lessons are then used to update the theories that gave origin to the action.

A Model for the Polis, the Ancient City-State

Mauro Piattelli, Nicola Bianchi, Marta Cuneo

Polises are the ancient city-states that began to appear in the Mediterranean around 1000 BC.  They were to be found not only in the area of ancient Greece, but also in Phoenicia and Etruria as well.  These polises had different evolutionary paths and relationship with the sea.
The aim of the proposed model is to simulate these different paths by introducing cultural factors such as the ‘trade aptitude and ‘conservative tendency’ of the dominant classes and also by considering geographical constraints.      
The model uses nine main state-variables, four concerning population and five economy. Macro events such as emigration and/or expansion, which may generate new polis, are explained in terms of social conflict between the two dominate classes.  The economic unit measure is yearly per capita consumption and the sampling interval is set to one year.
The model description also includes a comparison with Forrester’s well-known Urban Dynamics.  The reasons for the choice of the System Dynamics methodology are expounded in the paper.
Two-running examples are discussed and shown as output plots.  They deal with a case of high social stability due to sea trade activity of the Emerging class, and also with a case of low stability with generation of new polises.
In the authors’ opinion, the model offers a general heuristic tool in historical analysis, but may also be useful for approaching present-day problems about the identification of a new development hypothesis for western civilization, in that it recognizes the fundamental role of cultural factors in addition to the economic ones.                                                                                                     

A Dynamic and Integrative Model for Detecting Strategic Changes in Efficiency and Effectiveness of an Industrial Company

SECKIN POLAT, HALULK ERKUT

The purpose of this paper is to present a model developed for detecting strategic change in efficiency and effectiveness of an industrial company that is structured along with mechanistic concept, produces consumer products, and profit center.
Main aim of the research is to develop a model for detecting strategic changes that is a step of strategic issue diagnosis.  Which strategic changes are monitored is on dependent on which analysis unit is.  In this study it is organizations that are structured with mechanistic concept, vested in a multi product company and profit centre.  It can be found in literature that for these companies changes in effectiveness and efficiency are likely strategic changes.
Our approach to constructing the model is based on problem detecting approach due to relevant literature.  The model consists of two sub model; namely simulation sub model that is a system dynamic model and control chart sub model.  The simulation model provides us with distribution of profit values that can be obtained under the normal changes in effectiveness and efficiency.  The control chart model receives profit values produced by simulations model and calculates limits to show a manager whether there is a strategic changes in efficiency and effectiveness or not.
The model was run by input values of a Turkish company that produces paints.  In the test of the simulations model we did not found any statistical difference between profit values obtained from the simulation sub model and one obtained from profit formula, which may be a confidence indicator for validation.
As a conclusion it can be said that the detecting strategic changes offers a lot to system dynamic researcher and using management science tools with system dynamic will likely increase strength of it.

The Epistemological Assumptions of the (Main) Soft System Methodology Advocates

STEPHEN K PROBERT

A number of writers have argues that Soft Systems Methodology embodies a distinctly “subjective” philosophical approach and (or) yield a system methodology based on a “subjectivist” epistemology, and as such it is distinct from “objective” methodologies.  It has also been argued that Soft System Methodology avoids, or attempts to avoid, the “reductionism” inherent in traditional approaches to study of natural phenomenon.  In this paper it is argued that such argument contain a number of conceptual and historical confusions, and that whilst the advocates of the developed form of Soft Systems Methodology in fact subscribes to a subjective mode of enquiry, such a mode has its history firmly grounded in the natural sciences.  It is also argued that the Soft System Methodology advocates (in fact) subscribe to the thesis of epistemological reductionism, and this thesis will be contrasted with that of epistemological holism.

Innovations in Conceptual Modeling

MARCEL M H QUANJEL, IVO WENZLER

In this paper we describe the process of building a conceptual model of a guided missile base of the Royal Netherlands Air Force, a complex organization in the middle of transformation.  Based on this conceptual model, we developed a policy exercise that is used by the Air Force to explore their future organization, focusing especially on the communication structure.
We will describe the steps made in developing the model and explain the choices that lead to some methodological innovations in communicating complexity through a conceptual model. We will also describe this model, which consist of 28 actors and actor groups, and between them more than 350 relationships of nine different types, including five specified types of communication.
Furthermore we will look shortly into the possibilities of transforming our qualitative model of actors and relations between actors into a system dynamic model, thus broadening the scope of system dynamics by giving an input from the system analytical approach we use in developing policy exercises.

A Study of Output Curve Intersections in the Case of Delay i (i=1,2,3, …)

JIA REN’AN

Delay function is one of the most important functions in dynamo Language in system dynamics.
This article discusses intersection characteristic of output curves in the case of delayi (i=1,2,3,…), and proves that in step-input, output curves in the case of  delayi (i=1,2,3,…) doesn’t intersect at the common inflection point and that when DEL1=DEL2/2=DEL3/3, the output curves in the case of  delayi (i=1,2,3,…) doesn’t intersect with each other except common initial point.
Above-mentioned result is very important in the application of delay function.

Modeling the Unanticipated Side Effects of Successful Quality and Productivity Improvement Programs

NELSON P REPENNING

This paper describes a simple model of a manufacturing firm in which a successful productivity improvement program is implemented.  This model is an attempt to generalize an earlier theory developed to explain one company’s paradoxical experience with Total Quality Management (Kofman, Repenning and Sterman, 1994).  The model describes a dynamic hypothesis concerning the firm’s financial performance.  In this model the Half-life Equation suggested by Schneiderman (Schneiderman 1988) is used to determine the maximum rate of improvement.  The spread of skills and commitment is modeled as a diffusion process, and the allocation of resources to support that commitment is represented as a dynamic adjustment process with a multi-dimensional utility function and fixed resources constraint.  This formulation, with the assumption of locally rational decision rules, results in differential rates of improvement in the capacity and demand generating areas of the firm.  This differential, when coupled with traditional accounting, pricing, and human resource policies, can create unanticipated side effects that result in sub-standard performance or failure of the program.

Business Simulations and the Role of the Manager

Martin Rich

 

This paper examines some of the experience of using business simulations, for management teaching, in an academic environment.  It is particularly concerned with simulations which promote groups and collaborative working, and which encourage students to review their interaction within the group.  Using this experience, and examining the nature of managers’ work in business, it discusses the extension of these principles to in-service management training.  In the business context, the emphasis on group work translates to an emphasis on enabling managers to recognize and use their individual skills, and personalities, to the best effect.

Management training, especially in the UK, has long been regarded as a luxury, only to be indulged in where money and time are plentiful.  To encourage the use of simulations in business, some ideas for evaluation of their effectiveness in training are also discussed.

Foundations of Mental Model Research

GEORGE P RICHARDSON, DAVID F ANDERSEN, TERRENCE A MAXWELL, THOMAS R STEWART

Ongoing research at the Rockefeller College is exploring the ability of subjects in a computer-based management laboratory to manage the implementation of welfare reform.  Reflection on the design of such research have pushed us to develop a firmer theoretical foundation to guide our research  on distinguishable submodels focused on ends (goals), means (strategies, tactics, policy levers) and connection between them (the means/ends model).  These distinctions, coupled with a view of human judgment from Brunswikean psychology, lead to a rich integrated theory of perception, planning, actions, and learning in complex dynamic feedback systems.
From that theory we derive classes of testable research hypotheses about decisions making in dynamic environment in particular, design logic and operator logic hypotheses that have serious implications for system dynamics research and practice.  The operator logic hypothesis suggests that system intervention focused on understanding detailed system structure will have little impact if they are not captured in easy-to-digest chunks of strategic insights that managers can integrate into relatively simple means-ends associations.  Compounding the difficulties of mental research is the likelihood that individuals’ mental models can not be directly elicited without distortion.

System Dynamics of Petroleum Development Training for Long-Term Cooperation Across Cultural Divides

JAMES L RITCHIE-DUNHAM

This paper addresses the dynamics of energy development projects.  Nationalization has repeatedly squandered the economic, physical and mental resources of large joint-ventures between multinational oil companies, and developing countries.  A deteriorating relationship between multinational oil (MNOC) management and regional hosts consistently leads to nationalization. This cultural gulf between corporation and regional host, while existent in many regions is most significant in high conflict areas, which is why petroleum managers, with most of their experience in low conflict areas, have mostly ignored and cultural gulf.  To form strong relationships that bridge the cultural gulf requires cultural sensitivity.  Neighbor conflict studies show this problem to be most prevalent in developing countries, but also existent in emerging areas such as offshore California, Florida and Alaska.
The proposed microworld trains first world petroleum managers, through cause-effect analysis, that while cultural-sensitivity to the developing country’s need increases marginal costs, it’s lower the probability of nationalization, generating positive project economics and raising expected payouts from extended project life.

The Role of System Dynamics in Project Management: A Comparative Analysis with Traditional Models

ALEXANDRE RODRIGUES

The increasing rate of change to which organizations are exposed, along with the growing complexity of projects and of the environment, has highlighted some weaknesses of traditional approaches in coping with the strategic issues of project management.  System Dynamics models provide a useful tool for a more systematic management of these strategic issues.  There have been a number of applications of System Dynamics in project management; this experience permits a tentative comparison with the more traditional approaches and to examine the particular benefits of system dynamics.  The conflicts of options between their supporters stress the different perspective underlying the two approaches.  The comparison of the two approaches is focused on the “view” of the project management process.  Although they both assume a system perspective, identifying a cycle of planning, implementation and control, the level of detail in which they consider the project system is different.  Traditional models support the project manager in the operational problems within the process, while System Dynamics models provide more strategic insights and understanding about the effectiveness of different managerial policies.  For effective project management both operational and strategic issues have to be handled properly.  This paper suggests an approach to combining the lessons of system dynamics and traditional models within a single, integrated project management methodology.

Study of Work Climate in R&D Organizations: A System Dynamics Approach

SANTANU ROY, PRATAP K J MOHAPATRA

Research regarding the examination and evaluation of work climate in understanding organizational functioning has enabled us to formulate strategies that not only improve the behavioral aspects in institutional functioning, but also result in more effective organizational performance.  While sufficient studies exist on examination of work climate for industrial, service and allied sectors, relatively few researchers have considered government-funded Research and Development (R&D) institutions as their unit of study.  Further, most of the studies reported have been conducted for scientists working in R&D units in developed countries.
System Dynamics methodology as applicable to studying organizational behavior have found limited acknowledgement in literature.  Moreover, most of these studies are based upon theoretical understanding of the subject with little empirical support.  The present study is an offshoot of a serious of studies which were undertaken in the National Institute of Science Technology and Development Studies on different aspects of R&D Management with primary emphasis on organizational behavior.  An attempt is made here to model the work climate of an R&D laboratory using the System Dynamics methodology with support from the studies carried out earlier as mentioned above.  The motivational conditions prevailing in an R&D laboratory was studied in order to understand the factors and forces which are necessary to provide a climate which will motivate the scientists. Likewise, factors and forces that contribute significantly to the overall satisfaction with the work group were also studied.  The question whether operating within an environment as is prevailing with the R&D laboratory stimulating or a debilitating effect on the work enthusiasm of the scientists were addressed to them.  The aspect of R&D effectiveness of the research group was also probed into and the factors and forces contributing to the same identified.  A detailed flow diagram was then developed relating to above factors to the project flow dynamics.  Trail runs of the model using the DYMOSIM package have been carried out and project-related data collection are currently in progress to evaluate the constants and multiplier factors and for validation of the model structure.

Strategy and Systems Thinking Though Dynamics Storytelling

JORGE RUFAT-LATRE

This paper describes a way of using systems thinking concepts and a system dynamic model to help clients design strategic approach.  The client, a large information services corporation, knows the market it is serving now and the market it wants to serve in the future.  It also knows the core competencies necessary to meet the benefits needed in each market.  A can-do attitude and limited time for reflection limit the client’s ability to design the policies necessary to achieve this strategic transition.  Systems thinking concepts help the client understand the urgency of the situation and the difficulties faced in achieving a strategic transition.
The model is designed around the client’s perception of the corporation’s present and desired market, and around Gary Hamel’s strategy concepts.  It is not designed to answer a specific question, but rather to allow the client to address strategic issues.  The model incorporates every implied casual link that the developer could collect from diverse constituencies within the company to increase the chances that users will find topics from which to build a discussion.  Reports are made to look like corporate reports to ground the model in the client’s mind.  The model runs on MicroWorlds.  It is used like other existing management flight simulators.

Utilization of System Dynamics for Comparing Traditional and O.P.T Production Systems

A RUIZ, JOSE A D MACHUCA, MIGUEL A D MACHUCA

In the study presented here we have modeled a firm with various production sections managed along traditional lines.  We also include in the model the structural changes necessary for the company to be managed according to OPT.  It is possible to work with the two philosophies alternately.  We have thus created a tool which allows us to check the validity of the various basic rules from which professor Goldratt works in developing his theory, and also to establish its strengths and/or possible weaknesses for different business situations.

A Framework for Problem Solving Using Dynamics Modeling with a Japanese Management Technique

TOM RYAN

This paper reflects on a successful problem solving exercise that was carried out in a textile factory using a systems approach together with a Japanese management technique.  The systems approach used was System Dynamics modeling and the Japanese management technique was CEDA (see appendix).  The paper concludes that successful problem solving can be viewed as a group of learning process and that this approach offers a useful framework for initiating and managing performance improvement.  The degree of success is largely determined by the degree of learning that takes place.

Bargaining Delays in a Macroeconomic Context

ALEXANDER RYZHENKOV

A desirable movement towards a high skill and high wages economy may imply a broader employee participation in shaping investment/innovation strategies.  This could extend collective bargaining over automating, timing of innovations in addition to issues involving employment, wages and other working conditions.  This paper makes us of nonlinear differential equations and of a qualitative state space analysis to describe dynamic feedback system, based upon a Goodwin-like model of economic cyclical growth and income distribution.  The patterns of behavior are traced to the system’s feedback structure (in particular, to delays and polarity of it’s feedback link and loops).  It is shown that typically growth of labor productivity promotes a steady state labor bill share and employment ratio, although irrationality or myopic rationality in bargaining, disregarding regularities of the whole system, may be detrimental.

Technological Development in a Dual Economy: Alternative Policy Levers for Economic Development

KHALID SAEED, PONTHEP PRANKPRAKMA

A system Dynamics model of a dual economic system incorporating also the behavioral responses to competition and the ability to innovate on the part of the formal and self-employed sectors is developed and used as an experimental apparatus to search for technology-related entry points for achieving economic growth and changing income distribution. Policies to promote competition among the monopolistic formal fi9rms while simultaneously providing positive assistance to the competitive informal firms appear to offer promising alternatives to the traditional fiscal policy levers mainly affecting prices and factor costs.

System Dynamics in High School Physics

HORST P SCHECKER

System dynamics has strong didactic potential of physics education.  The use of modeling systems like Stella in the physics classroom creates new opportunities to
– accentuate the basic structure of physical theories,
– investigate more complex and realistic phenomena,
– improve the possibilities for students to bring in their own ideas.
Conventional physics instruction is often dominated by a bulk of special equations (gimmicks) for special cases, like s=v.t for linear motions on an air track.  System dynamics models help students to realize that the core of physics can be expressed by a limited number of power tools like Newton’s laws _p=F._t, which are applicable to a wide range of topics, including process and the graphical modeling language, they can use system dynamics as a tool to solve problems from nearly all domains of physics, starting from the motion of bodies to the decay nuclei.
Empirical research carried out by the University of Bremen has documented case studies about the use of STELLA over three years of high school physics courses.  A comprehensive selection of modeling examples ranges from the motion of meters over electromagnetic vibrations to Rutherford scattering.  Our empirical finding shows a) that using systems dynamics methods is feasible in normal physics classes, and b) that content, methods and results of physics teaching are improved. The paper presents the didactic rationale and selected examples.

Results of the 1993 System Dynamics Society Benchmarking Study

GREG J SCHOLL

 

The lack of commonly held rules or standards for system dynamics, the eclecticism of its application, and the wide variety of modeling and non-modeling methodologies developed over the past thirty years present formidable challenges for establishing an effectively functioning system dynamics community. It is reasonable to suggest that the current structure of the community may hold back the growth of the field more than obvious obstacles such as the inherent difficulty of developing insightful moods or the counterintuitive nature of nonlinear feedback lessons.  In this light, the structure of the community deserves closer scrutiny.
Benchmarking the System Dynamics Community, a survey sent by the author to System Dynamics Society members in February of 1993, is the first survey of the system dynamics community and a first step towards developing a more comprehensive understanding of the structure of the field.  The survey instrument consisted of five sections: background, Practice, Software, and Hardware, Model Building, and History Development, and Community.  The survey was designed to isolate where system dynamics is practiced, by whom and for what; understand how the methodology is applied and identify lines of communication across the field.
This paper presents the results of survey response, structured parallel to the five sections of the survey instrument.  It concludes with a series of questions for further investigations.

Organizational Learning as a Dynamics Sociological Construct: Theory and Research

DAVID R SCHWANDT

With the advent of concepts such as punctuated equilibrium, chaos, and systems thinking from the hard sciences, and their respective implications for the social science, we must consider change to be more performance; it requires us to examine both the organization’s ability to perform and their collective ability to learn.  This perspective necessitates the use of a sociological paradigm which allows for a better understanding of the dynamic and complex nature of organizational learning.  The organizational systems model discussed in this essay contains four subsystems each responsive for carrying out vital functions for the organizational learning system to adapt to its environment.  Relationships among the subsystems is established through the use of input/output variables labeled as interchange media: new information, goal referenced knowledge, structuring, and sense making.  These interchange media are products of the functional subsystems of the organizational learning system and are manifested and measurable dynamics variables.
Qualitative data is used to provide illustrative case examples.  The paper concludes with implications for the system modeling of organizational change as a function of both performance and learning.

System Dynamics for Budget Planning and Management Control

HEBIB SEDEHI, UGO BIADER CEIPIDOR, LIDIA D’ALESSIO, CHIARA RONCONI

Top management, through strategic plan, designs the guide of actions that are necessary to achieve company goals.
Methodologies and tools are essential for comparing the results reached through operative actions with those programmed; so that the management can analyze the differences and decide operations to better manage the future.  In this area the principle aim is to support, who has the decision, with instruments that increase management knowledge.  As a whole, the control system, is “simply” an overall feedback model, the results of which, if given in time to top management, allows him/her corrective actions that can be “vital” for company conduction.
Above knowing how things are going compared to what has been planned, top management needs to know which are the so called “master variables” that have particularly influenced the results.
What will describe in this paper will be the following: how, through System Dynamics approach, a simple “feedback control” management model can be integrated with a “feed-forward System” so to support top management in the process of budget planning and management control.
Two problems will be particularly discuss that could be of interest.
– An application of dynamic problem definition as a prerequisite to a good System Dynamics modeling.  This theoretical approach will be integrated also with an approach that imposes to define an aggregate model which contains, particularly, “master variables”.
– The model will be discussed and developed together with an academic expert in Italian public accounting and this will be a way to spread out the knowledge in System Dynamics approach in Italian university environment.
The result model will support public managers in the process of budget plan and the management control.

Number of Surviving Teeth for Japanese Age Groups

TOSHIRO SHIMADA, TAKAHIRO KOJIMA, KOICHIRO OKUMURA, KINYA MACHIDA, AKIRA UCHINO

We have done research fore these 20 years on the model for dental diseases in Japan.  We started from 2 sector of demography and dental caries, then added pyorrhea, baby teeth and technology sectors.

The demographic sector covered populations of 5 three year age groups under 14 years of age and 13 five year age groups above 15 years of age. From the total number of defective teeth, total dental costs in Japan were calculated annually from 1963 and projected to 2025.

We reported each stage of this model at the 1987, 1992 and 1993 International System Dynamics Conference.

We will make a general explanation of this research progress and show how changes of metamorphic rates among dental diseases affect number of surviving teeth for Japanese age groups and total dental costs in Japan.

Optimizing System Behavior using Genetic Algorithms

ROBERT M SHOLTES

Abstract: This paper explores the use of genetic algorithms (GAs) for optimizing system dynamics models. System dynamics offers a unique and powerful approach to identifying the most successful policies for managing complex problems. Unfortunately, policy makers too often avoid the use of models because of high level of experience required to operate the models and the time and expense which results from trail and error testing of a multitude of policy options in order to discover the best policies. The role of system dynamics models as decision-makers tools would be greatly strengthened if model users could simply identify the goals for the system being modeled and have the system dynamics model identify the best management actions. Current analysis and optimization techniques used with system dynamics models are not capable of automatically determining which policies most nearly produce the desired system behavior. One emerging optimization technique, (GAs), offers great promise in automating the identification of the best policies for selected system goals.

The paper is divided into three sections. The first explains how genetic algorithms work. The second section demonstrates how GAs can be used to optimize system performance for a more complex model. The paper concludes with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of Gas as they relate to the needs of the system dynamics community.

Dynamics of Organizational Learning, An Axiomatic and Model Approach

Kazimierz Roman Sliwa

Abstract: With computer tools that have recently become available, we can model, understand, and re-interpret many important concepts that habitually have had descriptive form. One of these concepts is organizational learning as presented by D. Schon and C. Argyris. Instead of searching for empirical evidences and applications of a single (simple learning) – and double learning (meta-learning) mechanism, the paper attempts to develop an axiomatic view of learning process exploring the model of Autonomous System – AS (by M. Mazur) as an organizational arquetype. Used as teaching instrument, the model linked with the system modeling and simulations has proved to be very stimulating effect and effective tool in the classroom.

Solid Waste Management in Puebla. A system Dynamics Approach

Kazimierz Roman Sliwa

Abstract: This paper presented a preliminary attempt of bridging a gap existing traditional approach to solving public administration problems and the System Dynamics perspective. The problem of solid waste in Puebla is a practical context in which think model is developed. The model and its runs prove that present official definition of the problem is wrong and that the solid waste recollection and recuperation could be converted from a resources consuming to resource generating process. It also shows how the municipal budget assigned to cleaning service can create a new reinforcing loop that links profit of the companies involved in the refuse recycling industry with a decrease of solid waste contamination in Puebla.

System Dynamics Modeling of Energy Consumptions in the Colombian Industrial Nation

Ricardo Smith, Gloria E Pena, Isaac Dyner, Juan C Suarez

Abstract: A System Dynamics model specially built to analyze energy policies in the Colombian industrial sector is presented. The model allows to simulate two main aspects of industrial energy consumption: line production and boilers.  The decision processes takes into account all energy alternatives and select the most economic one. Decision are made based on economic terms where variables such as investment, tariffs, energy consumption and maintenance are taken into account. The model allows to examine several aspects such as: alternative on technology diffusion, energy consumption growth and effects of pricing policies on diverse energetic demands. The model was applied to the energy consumption of the industrial sector in the Medellin Metropolitan Area, Colombia. Results are included.

A System Approach for estimating Corrosion Incidence to the Economy of a Nation

Ricardo Sotaquira G, Jorge H Panqueva, Hugo H Andrade S

 

Abstract: This paper presents a model in System Dynamics to estimate the economic incidence of the correction in the economy of a nation, in particular the Colombian case is studied. For the construction of the model, the Input-Output Analysis methodology is also used. The model disaggregates the national economy in economic sectors and allow for each one, to get their corrosion cost, and to estimate the economic benefit of control policies.

The simulation results, obtained through EVOLUTION for windows software, indicate that corrosion cost in Columbia is about a 2.35% of its GIP (Gross Internal Product), $US 1.250 million of dollars for 1193, approximately. This model allowed to evaluate the effects of a control policy of the corrosion, that according to the results, would induce a middle term an annual saving over the $US 125 million. These results have sustained the creation of a national entity for the investigation and technical assistance on the corrosion in Colombia.

Using a System Dynamics Approach as a Tool for Enhanced Company Performance Through Developing the Imagination Models of Managers

P . Stoyanova, R Woodward, M. Elliott. A O Moscardini

Abstract: In today’s highly competitive market, many organizations are uncertain of how to structure themselves. For maximum flexibility and effectiveness there is, for most organizations a need to accommodate change and to introduce innovative methods that will improve efficiency and quality. Managers are required to exhibits much more imagination than ever before. This paper uses the system approach to help managers consider corporate performance improvement through developing their imagination model.

A system Dynamics model of an existing non-traditional organization has been developed. The company considered had completely innovated its organizational structure into what is commonly termed a spaghetti organization as opposed to the traditional hierarchical organization.

The authors believe that there is a vast potential in using System Dynamics Approach for developing managers’ imagination model in the attempt to make a breakthrough for speed, quality and productivity; encouraging thinking the “unthinkable”.

Modeling the Diffusion of Innovations Based on Individuals Adoption Decisions

Juergen Strohhecker

Abstract: Innovations are the drive for a company’s growth and contribute substantially to its competitiveness in a world of falling economical barriers. New products are to be invented, developed and introduced into the market if the success and existence of a company are to be preserved. Therefore it is not astonishing, that the explanation and forecast of the diffusion of innovations in a special market are a subject the management is vitally interested in.

Most of the model that are to support the difficult forecast of new product sales – among them the widely spread Bass model – are based on describing view of life-cycle of a product and generate s-shaped sales curves using only one single mathematical formula or maybe just a few. In these models the diffusion of new products seems to be predetermine by nature. The management only has to estimate the parameters had coefficients to forecast the cycle correctly.

This paper wants to present a different, a more individualistic and microanalytic point of view. Not the entire market, not the homogenous potential of the market is in the center of this model, but the single, individual protagonists of the market. Using the methods of object-oriented analysis (OOA), the relevant objects and there classes will identified, the characteristics and conduct will be examined and their relationship among each other will be laid open.

This way, an object-oriented model of the market is created, a model of which one of the most remarkable features is the very natural copying of reality. Therefore it contains a much higher grade of explanation, and it can be more easily implemented to an object-oriented programming language, which makes it usable for simulation. The first results will be introduced in the final chapter.

Experiences in Teaching System Thinking

Johan Strumpfer, Tom Ryan

Abstract: The paper describes a programme in teaching system thinking at the Graduate School of Business at the University of Cape Town. This programme has been run for the last four years and has achieved good results in getting MBA students to apply system thinking in problem solving situations. The results are judged significant given the relatively brief exposure to systems thinking and varied background of participants.

The course itself is based on an action learning model, with self application a major mode of learning. Less emphasis is placed on the theoretical input, but students are required to invest significant effort in acquiring this through self study. The course makes extensive and explicit use of group work to structure and support the learning experience.

The course uses systems thinking to deal with general problem solving. The underlying methodology for problem solving used is one based on group inquiry, aimed at building up an appropriately rich and shared model of reality. The process of group learning is structured using Soft Systems Methodology and Systems Dynamics Modeling.

In the end the course is more about changing the way people think than about techniques. Some of the experiences relevant to this type of teaching is reflected on.

Leadership in a Global Village: Creating Practice Fields to Develop Learning Organizations

Stephan A Stumpf, Mary Anne Watson, Hemant Rustogi

Abstract: For a practice field to be of greatest value in developing global leadership capability, it needs to be constructed so as to combine meaningful cultural and national issues with realistic interpersonal dynamics. This paper examines how two practice fields designed to facilitate systems thinking and organizational learning Foodcorp, International and Globalcorp accomplish this task. Both are management development tools called behavioral simulations (not computer simulations) each creates a realistic context, a micro world, for people to interact on business and global issues. Both can be used to: (1) surface cultural assumptions in a social business context where they can be observed, tracked, and discussed relative to various effectiveness criteria; (2) create a team capable of performing with a shared vision and common mental models; and (3) develop leaders who can create as well accommodate micro cultural norms.

Preliminary results using this practice field approach are supportive of these objectives. A growing number of organizations (e.g., Apple Computer, Citicorp, Dow Jones & Company, American Express, AT&T, Northern Telecom, Glaxo) and educational institutions (e.g., University of Michigan, Dartmouth College, Indiana University, New York University, The University of Tampa, Defense Systems Management College) use such tools in their educational efforts. This paper describes the approach, provides two examples of how micro world practice fields are used, and shares the results of the research underway.

Systems Educations for Kindergarten Through Twelfth Grade in the United States: A view from the Creative Learning Exchange

Lees N Stuntz

Abstract: In the United States the use of system dynamics in Kindergarten through Twelfth grade education is growing but it has not yet approached the steep slope of an exponential curve. STELLA, a user-friendly system dynamics program, stimulated the first few uses of system dynamics in the classroom in Brattleboro, Vermont and Orange Grove Middle School in Arizona. The number of schools using system dynamics has grown to include, not only the schools of the STACI project from ETS but also schools in Ann Arbor, Michigan; Portland, Oregon; Brunswick, Georgia; Ridgewood, New Jersey; and Concord, Massachusetts. Each of these schools has started down this path through different portals. These differing starts give an insight into how other school systems might approach the venture.

The Creative Learning Exchange is a non-profit organization set up to encourage networking and curriculum sharing among teachers and schools who are using system dynamics in the classroom as well as those interested in initiating the process. Over the three years of our existence, this network has grown across forty states and into almost a dozen other countries.

Beyond Solution: A Re-Presentation for the “New Times”

Ann Taket, Leroy White

Abstract: Many commentators have pointed to changes in organizational practices and structures, with moves from hierarchy and centralization to decentralization and more democracy. There is an increased emphasis on local action and self-organization, rather than steep vertical structures. This paper responds to the challenge of looking at the relevance of the theory and practice of problem solving methodologies in this changing context. Within the framework provided by postmodernist and poststructuralist ideas, we draw on our work in the domain of community operational research (COR), working with a variety of groups in the voluntary sector. The voluntary sector is particularly relevant as it exemplifies the characteristics of the “new times”, with democratic and self-organizing groups, many of which operate at very local level.

In the paper we will approach the subject in the following three ways:

  1. By scrutinizing the notion of problem ‘solving’ and suggesting that it might open a larger space for action and choice to recast this issue-structuring. This involves a move away from the notion of a singular optimum or best solution to exploring a range of possibilities.
  2. By examining the nature of representation implicit in the notion of modeling, (as in systems dynamics and issue structuring methodologies), drawing on a reading of the ideas of Baudrillard.
  3. By subverting the notions of the experts and expertise in practice. Here we demonstrate how the relationship between expert and client has shifted to encompass the idea that the client can be seen as the expert in context.

 

System Dynamics in Educational Science: An Experience of Teaching Production-Distributions Mental Models Building

Daniel Thiel

Abstract: We have tackled the problem of teaching business logistics. Over vision and knowledge of the industrial world and particularly its logistics are obviously not the same as that of out graduate and post-graduate students without professional experiences. Therefore, our teaching difficulty consists in adopting the means of transferring knowledge to this specific public. How can system dynamics contribute to this knowledge transmission?

The originality of this paper consists in placing our training based on system dynamics concepts and tools, in relation to different traditional pedagogical doctrines and methods (attractive, interrogative, intuitive and active methods).

We present also a particularly analysis of different methods of formalizing knowledge in production-distribution system learning.

This study has led us to use management games even very limited ones, built by students themselves. This is the solution that we advocate in out approach to logistics using system dynamics.

The Applications of System Dynamics to Re-Engineering of Value Processes

R K Thurlby, J O Chang

Abstract: Value Processes are those high level processes which are critical to achieving an organization objectives. This paper describes the authors’ work in re-engineering a value process which was not working efficiently and causing serious problems to an important new business operation. Conventional process engineering tools were initially used and after these had failed to deliver significant improvement. The authors readdressed the problem using System Dynamics and the I-THINK modeling tool.

The authors’ experience of using System Dynamics are reported in detail, together with the results achieved. The models produced are described as is how system dynamics forced the authors to explore the processes beyond the boundaries identified by the conventional approach. It was in these new areas that the key to the problem lay and its solution lay. The problem was case of process invasion by the customer into the suppliers value process and the solution identified by simulating the i-THINK model lay in obliteration of element of the process. Finally, the authors comment on the relative merits of System Dynamics with conventional process engineering and describe their plans to continue investigation into other areas of value process.

Simulations Model for Policy Analysis on Multi-Airport System in Metropolitan Region

Tomoyuki Todoroki, Yoshio Hanzawa, Atsushi Fukuda

Abstract: Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) has two airports for air service, are Haneda and Narita airport. So far, Haneda airport delivers the service for domestic air flights, while Narita airports for international flights. This has mainly done by the strong regulation of the government.

This has, however, made users pay additional travel time and cost, because Narita airport located in outlying area of TMA.

In this paper, the simulation model for multi-airports system is developed so as to know the answer for the question whether both airports can survive or one lose a demand after competition or cooperation. The model mainly consists of three bodies, namely air passengers, airlines and airports. Under the competition between two airports to get both domestic and international flights, share of air demand between two airports is calculated. Finally, key factors on the service, demand and management of a milt-airports system which are decided depending on the behavior of users, airlines and airports authorities, is defined by using this model.

“1961 and all that: The influence of Jay Forrester and John Burbidge on the Design of Modern manufacturing Systems”

Denis R Towill

Abstract: Modern manufacturing systems are expected to respond rapidly, effectively and efficiently to changes in the marketplace. Simultaneously there is the drive to achieve world class customer service levels coupled with minimum reasonable inventory (MRI). We thus have the classic conflict of interests between marketing off-the-shelf; production is still all-too-often looking to manufacture in economic batch quantities so as to achieve economies of scale; and the materials management is trying to minimize storage and distribution costs which in turn requires that a total systems MRI policy be adopted.

As reviewed in the paper the ground rules for effective manufacturing system design were co-incidentally established in 1961. Jay Forrester showed that medium period demand amplification was a system dynamics phenomenon which could be tackled by reducing and eliminating delays and the proper design of feedback loops. In parallel, via his “rules to avoid bankruptcy” and “laws of manufacturing systems”, John Burbidge showed that short period demand amplification was due to multi-phased, multi-period ordering policies.

Some thirty years later the work of both pioneers (which is conveniently summarized in the frequency domain) is still ignored at their peril by manufacturing industry. As an aid to fruitful exploitation of these ideas we describe their application to the analysis and design of a real world automotive spares supply chain and to a multi-product “to-make” ordering models which drives an MRP system to ensure that customers service level targets are met. Input-Output block diagrams were found to be particularly useful diagnostic tools for these projects.

A Systems Thinking Approach to Analyze the Waitinglist Phenomenon

Ann Van Ackere

Abstract: The aim of the national health Service (NHS) is to provide access to medical care to all. One of the challenges is to balance demand and resources while avoiding unduly waiting lists, either for treatment (the traditional waiting list phenomenon), or to see a practitioner. This note illustrated how Systems Thinking can contribute to the understanding of the complex of this issue, and to assess the impact of various policies. Systems thinking differs from traditional approaches in that it looks at the problem as a whole, as a system, and focuses on identifying key inter-relationships and feedback loops between different components of the system. We present three simple examples which illustrate the concepts of systems thinking, and indicate how this approach could be useful to analyze various policies.

Building Consensus in Strategic Decision-Making: Insights from the process Group Model-Building

Jac A M Vennix

Abstract: System dynamics is increasingly employed as a method to foster team learning in strategic decision making groups. Although only a full brown computer simulation model can reveal the dynamics of the system, in group model building the client organization is frequently satisfied with the construction of a conceptual (qualitative) model. In this paper a case is described in a Dutch government agency. Since people from different departments held strongly opposite viewpoints on the strategy, the agency had discussed its strategic problem for more than a year, but had obviously not been able to reach consensus. The group model-building process was successful in integrating opposite points of view, as well as in fostering consensus and creating commitment. Careful evaluation of the case shows that three factors might have been responsible for this: the role of systemic thinking, improvement of the quality of communication and finally the role of the facilitator.

A Systemic Account of Learning Organizations: Defining the Learning Capabilities of Organizations

D Vriens, E Philips

Abstract: In this paper we will develop a systemic framework for the description of organization by which we will define ‘organizational learning’ and ‘learning organization’. The framework will follow modern insights on system-theory and will be used to define and operate these concepts. In order to do this, first, a general framework for observing/defining systems will be introduced. This will follow the distinction between organization and structure of systems. Secondly, the general framework for defining systems will be used to define organizations. To this aim, the ‘organization/structure’ dichotomy will be further conceptualized according to social system-theory. Here, antipoetic, communication-oriented notion organization (Luhmann, 1988) will be used. A communication definition of organizations, however, does not suffice: a rationale for defining a ‘communicative whole’ as an organization should be given. These rationales are to be found in the perceived network of outputs and transformation of the organization to-be-defined. Finally, to an organization, defined as a communicative system, a number of properties might be attributed. Among these are learning (organizational learning and the learning organization), flexibility and anticipation. These concepts can be defined adequately within the developed framework. To conclude, it will be argued that the defined concepts of flexibility and anticipation contribute to the understanding of the learning capabilities of organizations. Therefore, these concepts may offer an increased understanding of learning and of how learning can be influenced. Consequently, this leads to an increased understanding of how organizations may gain viability.

A Promising Way of Revamping the State-Owned Enterprises In China

Qifan Wang, Wang Huihua, Jin Yin, Wang Xianyong

Abstract: Chinese state-owned enterprises, which have decades of expertise under planning economic system, have been inured to the simple production function far from the market-oriented economy, the challenge and influence they met are serve. Some experiences have been accumulated in the past years reform, but how to make state-owned enterprises more vigorous is still a critical problem that should be solved immediately. This article tries to discuss how to apply the learning organization, a successful management theory and method used in the Western Countries universally, to the organization-constructing of Chinese state-owned enterprise so as to find out a commonly effective means to envigor the enterprise. The characters and problems of Chinese state-owned enterprises as well as the features of learning organization applied in China are illustrated in the article at first. Then the procedures of building learning organization in a typical enterprise are discussed, aiming at developing the basic principles and commonly used methods of realizing a learning organization. The combination of learning organization and genetic structures are developed. Because the principles and methods are rooted in the Chinese realization, it is possible to be applicable to our purpose.

The Development of Shanghai in 2010

Qifan Wang

Abstract: This paper revealed the main problems which thwarted Shanghai’s economic Growth before 1990s. Basic principles of long term coordinated development of city and metropolis are explored. The paper described the blueprint of Shanghi in 2010 and studied more main factors which might limit its future economic development.

Business Transformation: The Key to long-term survival and success

Henry Birdsye Weil, Leon S White

Abstract: Internal and external forces beyond the control of management strongly influence the life-cycle characteristics of organizations. As a business moves, from infancy through adolescences to maturity and decline, the precepts for profit growth can change dramatically. Many corporations have become quite large and successful, only to ride and curve downward at the end a cycle. In the process, enormous amount of shareholder value are destroyed. Companies such as Wang and IBM are recent examples. Businesses that survive and succeed over the long-term must redefine or even reinvent themselves, not just once, but repeatedly. Imagining the next step is a big challenge. Implementing the transformation without permanently damaging the business is an even more complex strategic undertaking.

Drawing on a real and timely case, the authors explore a set of critical, interrelated issues pertaining to the process of business transformation. What are the key strategic considerations for managing the “end game” of your current core business? What are the major interdependencies between your current business and the one into which toy are transitioning? How can you maximize the transfer of business “assets” (including such intangibles as corporate reputation, customer loyalty and brand franchises) from the business of the past to the one of the future? What management policies might limit your growth in the new business area? How can you control the downside risks associated with corrections? The authors illustrate the use of computer simulation modeling to analyze these issues, provide a framework for debate among the senior executives of the company and facilitate strategic decisions.

Simulating the Effects of Regulatory Change in the UK Pubs Industry

Kim Warren

Abstract: A 1989 Monopolies Commission Inquiry into the supply of beer claimed that Tied retail distribution by brewers’ ownership of retail outlets (pubs) restricted consumer choice, excluding would-be competitors from brewing and retailing, and forcing up the retail price of beer. The inquiry recommended reducing large brewers’ ownership of pubs. This was intended enable new entry into retailing and production, reduce wholesale and retail beer prices, and extended consumer choice. However, a 1993 Government review found that the outcome had been largely the opposite of these aims, and a further serious consequence was the closure of large numbers of pubs and a sharp fall in their values.

These unintended consequences need to be understood if such outcomes are to be avoided in other cases, and firms need good models to help anticipate the effect of regulatory change and discover appropriate strategic responses. Since in this case there are complex interactions and feedback effects between three distant markets – (beer supply, pub retailing, and property) – models are needed that capture the dynamics of competition in each market as well as the interactions between them. This paper reports on the structure and results for a system dynamics model built to capture the growth of pub-owning firms, given different characteristics, incentives and behavior. This forms the basis of a further model for the licensed property market as a whole. Data was derived from the Inquiry report and discussions with industry executives, but all such data was available at the time of the original inquiry.

Preliminary results demonstrate the mechanisms by which firms grow chains of pubs and show how the impact on property values and numbers might be assessed. The model also demonstrates the broader value of applying a system dynamic methodology to researching issues of industry structure, strategic management and business policy.

How to get Managers to Use System Dynamics

Frederick P Wheeler

Abstract: The article aims to identify actions that will lead to an increased likelihood of managers adopting system dynamics. The specific purposes are:

-To explain how to implement successful information technology that supports managers.

-To identify the implications of adopting system dynamics as regular support software;

-To see if there is a need for system dynamics by examining how managers use information for decision-making.

Executive information systems are an example of information technology that is being used by managers. Lessons from the successful implementation of executive information systems are shown to be relevant and research on decision-making is used to show why managers need system dynamics. The main message is that system dynamics modeling needs to be done by internal support staff who actively adapt the support system to managers’ needs.

Learning about Modelling for Learning

Leroy White, Tony Ackroyd, Michelle Blackeborough

Abstract: It is widely recognised that modelling organisational systems can be used to provide insights into the problems of an organization, and to induce learning about the context. The objectives are to increase the effectiveness of thinking about the situation, to enable a wide participation in the constructions of the models, and to allow an analysis that minimizes the need for opaque technical reasoning. It is important, therefore, in the training of future modelers on undergraduate and postgraduate courses, to appreciate the need to identify a system structure and behavior, without necessarily placing a strong emphasis on the underlying mathematics.

This paper describes how system dynamics was used to re-design a course on system modeling, with an emphasis on system dynamics. In the approach adopted, cognitive mapping in conjunction with drawing influence diagram helped to conceptualise and to think about the situation, and a workshop environment was adopted to design and analyze the model of the course.

In addition, the paper will discuss the nature of the modeling process, and the problems of the distinction between qualitative and quantitative forms of representation. Finally, conclusions will be given on the potential of system dynamics modeling in the education of System Analysis, modelers or Operational Researchers.

Managing Information Technology Investments – The Application of a Dynamic System Approach

Phillip Wing, Mark Maloney

Abstract: Understanding, quantifying and realising the net benefits derived from Information Technology investments is becoming a complex and difficult management process.

A theoretical framework for managing Information Technology investments has been developed by the authors and applied to a process innovation initiative in the health sector in Australia. As part of this study, a dynamic system approach was used as the underlying conceptual and analytical approach to support this framework.

This paper details the background to the process innovation project, how a dynamic system approach was applied and the results of the case study.

The preliminary results confirm the conceptual robustness of the IT investment management framework and validated the practical use and application of a dynamic system approach within this framework.

Organisational Learning – The creation of ecological minds in organisations

Rolf Wolff, Olof Zaring

Abstract: This contribution draws from several research sources in order to develop on an organizational learning frame of reference towards ecological implementation in business companies. 1. It will demonstrate the necessity for companies to protect their production systems from over demands through the establishment of various legitimating functions in the company. 2. The paper will also show that rational decision making instruments (like capital investment planning) per se not adapt to ecological demands, but to the contrary hide the ecological decisions taken in the decision making process 3. Based on these empirical case studies we therefore can develop the organizational-learning-structure for ecological learning. The learning-issue is completed with the different modes of decision making in businesses (strategic choice, optimization, competition driven). Thus, this paper aims at overcoming the many myths regarding pressures posed on companies, both from the consultant community and different green pressure groups, by demonstrating that companies reactions (even defensive) are rational from the learning perspective.

Developing a Balanced View of Management Ecology

Eric Wolstenholme

Abstract: Many approaches to change management have tended to focus on specific dimensions or functions of organisations at the expense of others. For example, there has been organisational analysis, strategic analysis and more recently business process analysis. Strategy, organisational structure and process are inextricably linked via information and delays and form a management ‘ecology’, where changes to any one of the elements have repercussion for all. This paper suggest that a balanced understanding of the organisational ecology is required to generate effective and appropriate planning and change which the author is currently using system dynamics modeling to assist change management. The paper is written to assist System Dynamics in bringing the role of System Dynamics as a change management tool to the attention of managers, at a time when there is much confusion about alternative approaches to analyzing organisational change.

System Dynamics Modeling of National Policy: Case of Environment Conservation Input in China

Qingrui Xu, Jin Chen, Shaoxia Chan, Jie Han

Abstract: The underpinning factor for one nation’s sustainable development is the proper investment on environment conversation, advanced countries spend 24% GNP on national environment conversation, but China spends’ is only around 0.06.7% of GNP. Increasing the input on environment conversation emphasize by Chinese Government and many scholars. In this paper, based on the situation of environment conversation input in some countries, the mechanism analysis on the relationship between environment, economy, science & technology, education, population, we introduce a system dynamics model to forecasting China’s environment through synchronization of economic growth and environment conversation. The relationship between model structure and model structure and model behavior in a mathematical framework of system isomorphism as well as the scenario of different economic growth rate and different ratio of environment conversation input over GNP are studied.

Modeling Defense: A Challenge to System Dynamics

Mike Young, Robert Bailey

Abstract: CORDA has developed SD models for the UK Ministry of Defense over several years. This paper survey a number of defense applications where Stella and iThink have been used, either directly to predict results for a study, to examine a concept, or to create a prototype which can be used to determine a functional specification.

Two of the models are described in more detail to illustrate how we overcame limitations either in the SD paradigm or in the current programs. This paper summarizes a number of “lessons learnt” which it is hoped will prove of relevance to other practitioners and which may influence future program developments.

Overcoming the Learning Barriers of Management Flight Simulators: Task Salience and the Dissociation between Performance and Learning

Showing H Young, Sy-Feng Wang, Jenshou Yang

Abstract: Recent experimental studies in management flight simulators showed a dissociation between task performance and learning: subjects’ performance was significantly improved through practice, but very little deeper learning was detected. A theoretical framework is developed to explain the dissociation. That is, the cognitive strategies really used by subjects, e.g. Situations matching, feedback control and feed forward control are different from the normative cognitive strategy of mental model simulation expected by researchers. Methods to overcome the dissociation are suggested and demonstrated by two experimental studies. Based on the discussion and the experimental results, we found that considerations of cognitive strategies and task salience are very important dimensions for designing effective learning environment of management flight simulators.

The House of Quality Within a Knowledge-Based View of Firm

William E Youngdahl, Russell W Wright, Lillian C Wright

Abstract: Most, if not all, descriptions of process reengineering reply on the notion of translating the voice or satisfaction is criteria of the customer into a redesigned chain of value-adding business processes. While customer satisfaction is critical to business success, the tactical process of designing process to satisfy current customers may still overlook long-term strategic considerations. If managers are unable to see beyond current customer requirement, they will miss the opportunities that require new combinations of knowledge and skill.

We suggest that quality function deployment provides a framework for considering a variety of strategic criteria and translating these criteria into well integrated business processes. The “House of Quality” used in the QFD process maps customer quality criteria to design and functional activities and includes benchmarking of competitors’ customers satisfaction and technical performance. We will demonstrate that the house of quality can be used to match competitor best practices with a firm’s desired competencies and business process purposes. This model successfully integrates QFD and Business Process Reengineering with a knowledge-based view of the firm.

1993 Proceedings – Cancun, Mexico

The 11th International Conference

of the System Dynamics Society

1993 – Cancun, Mexico

The following papers were presented at the conference in parallel and plenary sessions. The original printed proceedings, edited by Enrique Zepeda and Jose A. D. Machuca, were printed in hardcopy and distributed at the conference. Below please find the Paper Index for these proceedings, including a link to the paper when available. Papers are listed alphabetically by the last name of the first author. To find a paper by an author who is not the first author, simply search on the author’s name. Available papers are Acrobat (.pdf) files and can be read using Acrobat Reader available from adobe.com.

PAPER INDEX – listed alphabetically by first author:

Akkermans, Henk with Jac Vennix, Etiënne Rouwette    Participative Modeling To Facilitate Organizational Change: A Case Study

Ali. K, Shoukath with Ramaswamy N.    Statistical Methods for Improving Confidence in System Dynamics Models – a Case Study on Blood Bank Inventory Management Systems

Asheim, Leif Jarle with Dag Morris Mydland    System Dynamics Analysis of the Development in Norwegian Rural Communities

Barlas, Yaman    Formal System Dynamics Education in Universities

Breiter, Andres E.    Dynamics of a Successful Turn Around Strategy

Camara, Antonio S. with Francisco Ferreria, Paulo Diogo, Pedro Goncalves, Joao P. Silva    System Dynamics Modeling Using Multimedia

Cecchini, Arnaldo with Filippo Viola    Lucumia: A Gaming Simulation for the Analysis of Conflicts Mangement Processes

Crespo Marques, Adolfo with Rafael Ruiz Usano, Ramon David Aznar    Continuos and Discrete Simulation ina Production Planning System. A comparative Study

Diaz S., F. Javier with Isaac Dyner    Estimation, Validation and Stochasticity in a Model of Organizationsl Strategy

Diehl, Ernst W.    Strategy Support Software: Enhancing Executive Dialogue & Debate

Dyner, Isaac with Ricardo A. Smith, Gloria E. Pena    System Dynamics Modeling For Energy Efficiency Analysis

van Eijck, D.T.T. with R.J. Streng, and H.G. Sol    Dynamic Modeling to Support Organizational Decision Making. The Stevedore Case

Franco, Douglas    Strategies by System Dynamics

Fey, Willard with John Trimble    An Expert System to Aid in Model Conceptualization

Fiddaman, Thomas with Rogelio Oliva, R. Rembert Aranda    Modeling The Impact of Quality Initiative Over the Software Product Life Cycle

Fukuda,  Atsusho   Analysis on the Policy for Reduction of Nox in Developing Cities.

Genta, Peter J. with Neville Sokol    Applying a System Thinking Approach to Business Process Re-Engineering: A Case Study of a Canadian Oil and Gas Producer

Georgantzas, Nicholas C.    Perceptual Dynamics of “good” and “poor” Service Quality

Georgantzas, Nicholas C.    Creativity and control dynamics in prime office-space markets

Geurts, Jac L. with Ivo Wenzler, Hans J.J. Kuppevelt    Communicating complexity through visualisation: the use of schematics in gaming/simulation

Gil’Adi, Danile with Lorenzo Lara-Carrero    Consulting Groups: A tool for sharing vision and building alliances.

Goodman, Michael with W. Brian Kreutzer, John D. Sterman, David P. Kreutzer    Electrifying Learning: Computerizing the Beer Game

Haxholdt, Christian with Christian Kampmann    Entrainment in a disaggregated Economic Long Wave Model

Hocking, Alan with Jane Orford    Changing Model Ownership When Needs Must: Experiences within the Business Consultancy Department of Shell International Program

Homer, Jack with John Sterman, Brain Greenwood, Markku Perkola    Delivery Time Reduction in Pulp and Paper Mill Construction Projects: A Dynamic Analysis of Alternative.

Kreutzer, David P. with Janet M. Gould, W. Brain Kreutzer    Designing Management Simulators

Lane, David C.    From Discussion To Dialogue : How an interactive modeling process was used with managers to resolve conflict and generic meaning.

Lane, David C.   With a Little Help From Our Friends: How third generation system dynamics and the problem structure techniques of ‘soft’ OR can learn from each other

Langley, Paul A.    Learning with Model Supported Case Studies

Langley, Paul A. with Erik R. Larsen    Multimedia Management Flight Simulators

Lara-Carrero, Lorenzo with Arturo Bencosme, Rodger Farrell, Daniel Gil’Adi    New Barrels for Old Beer: The Beer Game as a Learning Organization

Lyneis, James M.    A Dynamic Model of Technology Diffusion

MacDonald, Roderick H. with Anne M. Dowling    The Savings and Loan Crisis: A System Dynamics Perspective

Macedo, Julio    A Competitive Intelligence System for Total Quality Manufacturing Strategies

Machuca, Jose A.D. with Miguel A.D. Machuca, Antonio Ruiz, Jose C. Ruiz    Systems Thinking Learning for Management Education, What Are Our Ideas and How Are We Going About It In Sevilla?

Machuca, Jose A.D. with Miguel A.D. Machuca, Angel Maresca    Some Modifications Introduced to Improve the Beer

Mahmoud, Mohamed with Peter Genta    Microworld of an Open University: A Strategic Management Learning Laboratory

Markarian, Mirharan    Performance Decision System: An Intelligent to Decision Support System in Manufacturing

Marshall, Norman L.    Regional Land Use and Infrastructure Dynamics

Martinez, S. with A. Barron    Mistela-An Integrated Simulation Model For Telefonica De Espana

Mejia, Nestor with Isaac Dyner    HARDEXP-A strategic Support Tool For Hardware Expansion

Milling, Peter M. with Frank H. Maier    Dynamics Consequences of Pricing Strategies for Research & Development and the Duffusion of Innovations

Moscardini, Alfredo with Patia Stoyanova    Experiences Teaching System Dynamics At The UK Masters Level

Qingrui, Xu with Chen Jin, Wu Gang    Application of System Dynamics on Policy Analysis of Resources Allocation of Scientific Research

Qingrui, Xu with Wang Weiqiang    A Portfolio Approach to Managing Technological Innovation: Linking Systems Dynamics to Organizational Learning And Group Decision making

Radzicki, Michael J. with John D. Sterman    Evolutionary Economics and System Dynamics

Rego, Juan C.    Fighting Inflation In Argentina: The Crisis of 1982: A SD version of a small monetary, Cagan’s fashion

Roman Sliwa, Kazimierz    System thinking and the organizational growth: personnel pressure and organizational Equilibrium scissors. A case of the company “BETA”

Roy, Rahul Kr. with P.K.J. Mohapatra    A system Dynamics Based Methodology for Numerically Solving Transient Behavior of Queuing Systems

Ruiz Usano, Rafael with Adolfo Crespo Marquez    Modeling Hybrid Producing System. A Possible Characterization

Rufat-Latre, Jorge    Transferring System Thinking And Circumscribing Problems: A Case Study

Saeed, Khalid with Micael J. Radzicki    A Post Keynesian Model Of Macroeconomic Growth, Instability, and Income Distribution

Saeed, Khalid    The Dynamics Of Collegial Systems In the Developing Countries

Sajedi, Sabegh Jala with Sharma Sushil Kumar    Measuring and improving total productivity and integrated approach

Sastry, M. Anjali with John D. Sterman    Desert Island Dynamics: An annotated survey of the essential system dynamics literature

Senge, Peter M. with Rogelio Oliva    Developing Theory of Service Quality/Service Capacity Interaction

Shimada, Toshiro with Takahiro Kojima    Stochastic Test on the model for Dental Dentist

Smart, Chris with Virginia Bryant    Enhancing cash flow forecasting by the use of system dynamic modeling techniques

Torres,  Ma Dolores Soto   A system dynamics approach to Kalecki’s Model

Tessem, Bjornar with Pål Davidsen    Fuzzy System Dynamics

Thiel,  Daniel   Genetic Models For Explanation of Complex Production System Dynamics

Vennix, Jac A. M. with Wim Scheper    Group Model-building: what does the client think of it?

Wang, Qifan    An approach to appraising, diagnosing and designing the structure and function of corporation

Wang, Qifan   Comprehensive methods of system analysis inference, synthesis and model sets for studying the socio-economic-ecosystem

Wikstorm, Hugo    Modification of the concept “change” as a Result of working with System Dynamics model in an Educational Setting

Wittenberg, Jason with John D. Sterman    Competition and Succession in the Dynamics of Scientific Revolution

Wolstenholme, E.F. with D.A. Corben    Towards a Core set of Archetypal Structure in System Dynamics

Young, H. with Shih Hui Lo, Sy-Feng Wang    A preliminary Design of CSS Production-Distribution Board-Type Simulation Game

Yu, Jia-di with Xiu-jin Feng    Problems of Population Control in China

Zahn, Erich    Model-Based Planning for Strategic Management An Integrated Simulation and Learning Toolkit.

Zepeda Bustos, Enrique    Expansion Policy for a Telephone Comapany

CONFERENCE ABSTRACTS

Participative Modeling To Facilitate Organizational Change: A Case Study
Henk Akkermans, Jac Vennix, Etiënne Rouwette

Abstract: The main objective of most system dynamics modeling project is to support some kind of strategic decision making activity. This paper describes a modeling project where the primary goal was to establish an organizational platform for change. The project was conducted with a group of mid-level managers of a company at the eve of a period of organizational change. This group of managers engaged in a series of participative modeling sessions, facilitated by the authors. Extensive evaluation of the project results indicates that such a platform for change has been established.

Statistical Methods for Improving Confidence in System Dynamics Models – a Case Study on Blood Bank Inventory Management Systems
Shoukath Ali. K, Ramaswamy N.

Abstract: The article discusses some statistical techniques applied as confirmatory tools to the System Dynamics modelling and analysis of Blood Bank Inventory Management systems. Instead of using arbitrary means, problem definition and statements are corroborated with statistical mehods of correlation and formulation of adjacency matrices. This is extended to the estimation of some of the parameters of the system. Numerical Performance Measures (NPM) used to evaluate the system response to various inputs are discussed. The response of the system is illustrated primarily as time series plots. System trajectories or phase plane plots are presented with statistical inferences in relation to the model. It is concluded that for SD model refinement and analysis statistical techniques can be used judiciously as a confirmatory tool in unison with judgmental evaluation of the system.

System Dynamics Analysis of the Development in Norwegian Rural Communities
Leif Jarle Asheim, Dag Morris Mydland

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to explain the expansion and the contraction of the population in Norwegian rural communities. A preliminary system dynamics simulation model with emphasis on migration have been developed portraying a population sector, and sectors for kindergarten, education, housing, business, resources, and regional policy. The results of our simulations is being compared to actual development in eight communities for the period 1976 to 1988 with respect to the total number of employed in the private sectors as well as the number unemployed and the number of migrants.

Historically and in our simulations the communities are relatively attractive in total up until 1982. During the last part of the seventies there was relatively low unemployment and the population increased due to immigration. The local labour market, however, was not sufficiently large to absorb increased in the supply of labour in the early eighties. Consequently unemployment increased, leading first to emigration and reduced unemployment and thereafter to higher unemployment due to the smaller local market.

On the basis of the model, we have suggested four strategies for stabilization of the population in the communities. In a period of declining population, a strategy that seeks to compensate for declining local markets by producing for external markets may reduce the negative effects and lead to a stabilization of the population.

Formal System Dynamics Education in Universities
Yaman Barlas

Abstract: System dynamics, in spite of its solid philosophical foundations and a very promising practical prospect, has not experienced the growth that one would expect from its potential. I argue that a major cause of this relative stagnation has been the lack of formal, regular undergraduate system dynamics courses in universities. System dynamics community must spend more time and effort discussing issues of university-level system dynamics education. This paper is an attempt to start such process. In the paper, I first present a taxonomy of different types of university-level system dynamics courses. Then, based both on personal experience and published literature, I identify four groups of problems and issues to be addressed by the system dynamics community before the system dynamics education can proliferate. These are: lack of formal teaching material, insufficient literature on teaching methods, problems of terminology, and insufficient emphasis on undergraduate system dynamics teaching. Personal experience has taught me that system dynamic courses are extremely rewarding for both the instructor and the students. Once the above problems are dealt with, I believe that the university level system dynamics education will proliferate, which should be a major step toward initiating an exponential growth process in the field in general.

Dynamics of a Successful Turn Around Strategy
Andres E. Breiter

Abstract: A crisis in a previously successful enterprise occurs when the value generated by the company’s activities become insufficient to cover the total cost incurred during a certain period. Frequently, in our days management faced with this problems needs to modify company goals and reduce costs over a short time. The rapid changes of goals and aggressive cost reductions frequently cause unexpected and dangerous secondary effects. These may inhibit company growth for a long time after the costs are brought into line.

Simple qualitative models of typical situations encountered during the company restructuring are presented. Their understanding allows management to avoid the most common fatal pitfall. Managers facing critical situations such as those encountered in the early stages of turn around are very receptive to tools allowing systematic analysis of their problems. Thus system dynamics based way of thinking becomes a key weapon for managers at the very moment they enter the decisive battle for their career.

System Dynamics Modeling Using Multimedia
Antonio S. Camara, Francisco Ferreria, Paulo Diogo, Pedro Goncalves, Joao P. Silva

Abstract: System dynamic models are tools that allow one to explore the quantitative behavior of systems through time. However, real systems are usually multidimensional with both quantitative and qualitative variables. Recent development in digital video and sound processing suggest the enhancement of system dynamics models with streams of images and sounds related to the systems those models try to represent. A framework to integrate systems dynamics modelling and multimedia technologies is proposed herein. A multimedia systems dynamics water pollution model is included for illustrative purposes.

Lucumia: A Gaming Simulation for the Analysis of Conflicts Mangement Processes
Arnaldo Cecchini, Filippo Viola

Abstract: This article presents a family of variously structured gaming simulations for training which have been once used to teach and experiment the learning tools of System Dynamics Analysis. These games, names after their prototype, are called The Games of Lucumia. Here we present also the results of a game modelled by the participants based on System Dynamics techniques.

Continuos and Discrete Simulation ina Production Planning System. A comparative Study
Adolfo Crespo Marques, Rafael Ruiz Usano, Ramon David Aznar

Abstract: In this paper a JIT/KANBAN manufacturing process is simulated using both discret event, and system dynamics methodology. The results obtained are analized and compared. The purpose of this research is to determine the aspects to be more conveniently studied by modeling the system with each simulation approach.

Estimation, Validation and Stochasticity in a Model of Organizationsl Strategy
F. Javier Diaz S., Isaac Dyner

Abstract: This paper reports results of research on model building and validation applied to a complex system immerse in an environment of permanent change.

A model was built in the context of an organization operating under a highly centralized structure but with poor institutional integration and poor information technology tools. The conveniently articulated strategies chosen to dilute institutional problems are: decentralization, leadership and implementation of information systems.

Strategy Support Software: Enhancing Executive Dialogue & Debate
Ernst W. Diehl

Abstract: Group decision making and discussion often leads to unanticipated ends. The use of strategic support software to improve such processes yields higher quality debate. Simulation technology provides for explicit mental models, the exploration of assumptions, and instantaneous analysis of “what-if” scenarios. This paper will look at how the design of executive support software is shaped by dialogue and debate, and how interactive strategic management tools shape such discussions.

System Dynamics Modeling For Energy Efficiency Analysis
Isaac Dyner, Ricardo A. Smith, Gloria E. Pena

Abstract: A System Dynamics model specially built to analyze residential energy policies is presented. The model allows to simulate substitution of household equipments for more efficient ones using two stage economic decision process. In the first stage the user select the most economic alternative and in the second stage the user compares the financial condition to acquire the chosen energy alternative considering his buying capacity during the period of analysis (delays are condidered). The model allows to examine several aspects such as: alternatives on technology diffusion, energy consumption growth and effects of pricing policies on diverse energetic demands. The model was applied to the Medellin Metropolitan Area, Colombia. Results are included.

Dynamic Modeling to Support Organizational Decision Making. The Stevedore Case
D.T.T. van Eijck, R.J. Streng, and H.G. Sol

Abstract: This paper addresses a simulation study that has been carried out in the Rotterdam Port to assess the value of decision alternatives for terminal entrance facilities and procedures. The organizations involved in this project are dynamic systems by nature, so static analysis and design technique does not suffice when supporting decision processes. The Dynamic Modelling approach was therefore applied in a case study.

Strategies by System Dynamics
Douglas Franco

Abstract: System provides methods for Strategic Planning and Management. Lyneis (1980) presents robust ways to achieve time based strengths by minimizing delivery delays. Accumulations of matter and information conform the logistics and intelligence of Strategic Planning. Policies and Strategies are both rules to manage the system. The interaction with the environment is common to both fields and inclusion of the decision makers within the system enhances the strategic scope of the analysis. Feedback loops are new elements for Strategic Thinking. Now, they come packed in archetypes that are basic components of strategy formulation. s expand methods traditionally used by Strategic Planners, for instance the BCG matrix used to allocate investments. Peter Senges (1990) Fifth Discipline is a good example of a combination between the System Dynamics and Organizational learning, a traditional component of strategy development. Dynamics can also profit from Strategic Management. Managers are more familiar with Strategic planning than they are with Dynamics. So, it is a way to call the manager’s attention. Besides, the organizational use of Strategic Planing at the top of the organization opens the door of company headquarters to System Dynamicist. However, some caution is necessary to improve the use of the discipline by the learning managers.

Dynamics can deliver much of the promises made by strategic Management. Therefore, there is a need to open more channels of communication between both fields.

An Expert System to Aid in Model Conceptualization
Willard Fey, John Trimble

Abstract: Using interviews and a Delphi exercise, valuable information was collected from experts concerning the problem definition and model conceptualization stages of system dynamics studies. This research examined when to select and use various knowledge acquisition techniques and knowledge representation structures. Now this information is being incorporated into a comprehensive expert system for training novice SD analysts. A teacher model and a student model are being incorporated into the expert system to provide pedagogical flexibility and intelligent tutoring. This paper reports on the initial work on the prototype instructional expert system, and plans to extend this prototype.

Modeling The Impact of Quality Initiative Over the Software Product Life Cycle
Thomas Fiddaman, Rogelio Oliva, R. Rembert Aranda

Abstract: This paper describes a System Dynamics model which forms the basis for a management flight simulator that explores the impact of two total quality initiatives, Formal Inspection and Quality Function Development and adoption process. The paper focuses on the new perspective on software development dynamics gained in the construction of the model. It describes the measures of performance used and the causal structure of selected sectors. The model links existing software projects management and market diffusion structures, adding an explicit representation of product functionality and evolving customer requirements based on Kano’s Dimensions of Quality diagram. A discussion of future goals for this research and an evaluation of the impact of this kind of work on the software industry is presented.

Analysis on the Policy for Reduction of Nox in Developing Cities.
Atsusho Fukuda

Abstract: This research addressed about the policy to reduce the nitric oxides pollutant in developing cities. The model was developed based on the balance between development of domestic automobile industry and improvement of urban environment so as to simulate the nitric oxides pollutant level and the domestic economic level through the alternative policies. The result shows difficulty to reduce pollutant with economical development in developing cities.

Applying a System Thinking Approach to Business Process Re-Engineering: A Case Study of a Canadian Oil and Gas Producer
Peter J. Genta, Neville Sokol

Abstract: This paper describes the work and experience gained by a team using a system thinking approach to developing a microworld to support a of business process re-engineering and corporate-wide reorganization of a Canadian oil and gas producer. The opportunity for this experience arose from an atmosphere of change produced during several years of depressed prices for oil and gas and the consequent need for the players in the industry to downsize. This work is intended to provide managers with strategic management learning laboratory of a newly designed decentralized business unit.

Perceptual Dynamics of “good” and “poor” Service Quality
Nicholas C. Georgantzas

Abstract: Service researcher support the necessity of integrating policy and design dimensions with service front-line variables in modeling service systems. Current research unveils multiple causes of good and poor service quality as well as the goal that service design for quality should attain. The goal is to neither to narrow nor to close, but to reverse the gaps among customer expectations and perception of service quality. Grounded on the contributions of conceptual and empirical research, a small three sector system dynamics model describes the interactions of policy and service front-line variables in a typical quasi-manufacturing service. The firm treats customers defections as measurable scrap and, in a company-wide effort to ferret out weaknesses against potential loss, its top management is committed to soliciting feedback from defecting customers. Computed decision scenarios trace the patterns experienced with performance to the inauspicious effects of pulling on internal policy levers too hard. The resulting dysfunctional behavior shocks the entire service system, including customers, defectors and profit per customer. A radical change in the firm’s average customer life (avgLife) target triggers a cycling-doubling pattern in the call soliciting feedback from defecting customers. This chaotic pattern forces the entire system to respond accordingly. System dynamics can provide the integrated-process view required for understanding self-inflicted problems in services. Along with its policy analysis and service design implications, the simulation output indicates the morphology of the topology possibly underlying customer perceptions of service quality.

Creativity and control dynamics in prime office-space markets
Nicholas C. Georgantzas

Abstract: The office-space valuation literature concentrates on office-building attributes, such as square footage, height, number of floors, perceived architectural quality and distance from business districts or transit stops. Real estate researchers combine central place theory with landmark proximity in an effort to explain the complex relationships underlying office-space pricing. Yet, existing models have been inconsistent in relating office-space rents to square footage, indicating the possibility of spatial autocorrelation among corporate economic activities. The dynamic behavior pattern of the commercial real-estate cycle signals the creative interaction of business firms in their locale. A system dynamics model describes the interaction of these relationships in a particular location, namely midtown Manhattan.The model incorporates a third-order cost function, central place theory and landmark externalities to describe the causal structure underlying the valuation of 103 office buildings in midtown Manhattan, from 1980 to the first quarter of 1990. To embody spatial autocorrelation among corporation economic activities, the model accounts for the migration of wealth controlling and wealth producing firms. The results reflect the complex interrelationships underlying prime office-space markets and place in perspective their long-term cycles as exemplified by the New York office market.

Communicating complexity through visualisation: the use of schematics in gaming/simulation
Jac L. Geurts, Ivo Wenzler, Hans J.J. Kuppevelt

Abstract: This paper discusses visualisation as a key tool in the related fields of gaming/simulation and system dynamics. Using two gaming projects as examples, techniques and processes of visualisation from the gaming discipline are explaned. Conceptual modelling through the use of schematics us an important element of the system dynamics as well as gaming/simulation methodology. The authors conclude that both schools should invest in doing research and applying existing visualisation theory to their special styles of schematic building. The review of some concepts of ‘visual language’ shows that there is a lot of “we-in-gaming” or “we-in-stem-dynamics” take for granted when we work with schematics.

Consulting Groups: A tool for sharing vision and building alliances.
Danile Gil’Adi, Lorenzo Lara-Carrero

Abstract: In this paper were describe consulting groups, an effective tool used with great impact in different organizations to foster shared vision and the development of alliances. Through this tool, executives have the chance to present projects they want to strengthen, dilemmas of leadership and communication they want to understand or resolve.

Electrifying Learning: Computerizing the Beer Game
Michael Goodman, W. Brian Kreutzer, John D. Sterman, David P. Kreutzer

Abstract: The Beer Distribution Game is one of the most popular ways of introducing managers and students to system dynamics. One of the reasons for this popularity is its success at teaching, on an experiential level, one of the fundamental principles of System Dynamics–that structure causes behavior. It does this in an entertaining and engaging manner. Some players have become so engaged in the experience that they want to explore the dynamics of game further. Because of this interest computer versions of the game have been developed to accelerate the opportunities to explore the game’s dynamics and make it easier to use and facilitate. This paper will highlight some of the features of these games which facilitate learning by individuals or teams.

Entrainment in a disaggregated Economic Long Wave Model
Christian Haxholdt, Christian Kampmann

Abstract: This paper investigates how mode-locking and other highly nonlinear dynamic phenomena arise through the interaction of two capital-producing sectors in a disaggregated economic long-wave model. One sector might represent the construction of building and infrastructure capital with long lifetimes while the other represents production of machinery, computers, etc. with much shorter lifetimes. Due to the positive feedback associated with capital self-ordering, each sector in isolation produces a self-sustained oscillation with a period and amplitude determine by the characteristics of that sector. However, the sectors interact through their mutual dependence on each other’s output for their own production. When this coupling is accounted for, the two sectors tend to synchronize or lock together with a rational ratio between the periods. While keeping the aggregate equilibrium characteristics of the system constant, we study how this locking occurs as a function of the difference in capital lifetimes and as a function of strength of the coupling between sectors. Besides mode-locking and quasi-periodic behavior, the observed phenomena includes cascades of period-doubling bifurcations, chaos, and intermittency. When the difference in capital lifetimes is very large, the system behaves like a one-sector model with a reduced capital content of production: Only one oscillatory mode remains, and it is much less pronounced than in the original one-sector model.

Changing Model Ownership When Needs Must: Experiences within the Business Consultancy Department of Shell International Program
Alan Hocking, Jane Orford

Abstract: Advocates of the “Modelling as Learning” philosophy would not endorse a policy of handling over a ready-made model to a new client. In commercial environments, however, consultants and clients move on and there is pressure to maximise return on investment. This often means that existing System Dynamics models must be transferred between consultants and clients. Within the Business Consultancy department at Shell both the consultants and clients change jobs every three years or so and model handover is an issue that must be managed.

This paper details cases where, even thought the rules of problem-ownership are broken, a successful result can be achieved. The authors show that some of the learning experienced during the initial modelling process can be shared with newcomers after the event and a framework thinking through model handovers is offered.

Delivery Time Reduction in Pulp and Paper Mill Construction Projects: A Dynamic Analysis of Alternative.
Jack Homer, John Sterman, Brain Greenwood, Markku Perkola

Abstract: A system dynamics model was develop for a company looking to reduce delivery times in projects involving the engineering, procurement and construction of complex equipment systems for pulp and paper mills. The model has some original features, particularly its portrayal of a critical path determined the ‘gates’ connecting sequential activities, which should be of general interest to project modelers. The model has helped the company identify practical ways to reduce delivery times by at least 30% and do so without driving up costs.

Designing Management Simulators
David P. Kreutzer, Janet M. Gould, W. Brain Kreutzer

Abstract: The form of the management flight simulator should follow from the functions it serves for the user. Interfaces designed to facilitate educational interventions should differ in functional form from interfaces designed to provide support systems for executives making real time decisions or conducting scenario planning exercises. Designers should consider the purpose of the interface, the nature of the interaction, the characteristics of the users, the context of use, and the style of presentation before developing the software application. This paper provides examples of how radically different design criteria lead a design team to choose different forms for several management flight simulators and executive-information systems.

From Discussion To Dialogue : How an interactive modeling process was used with managers to resolve conflict and generic meaning.
David C. Lane

Abstract: Managers involved in the production and trading of a commodity had adopted conflicting positions regarding the macro-dynamic behaviour of output and revenues in their market. The tools of system dynamics were used to articulate the assumptions of the participants and, in so doing, support a dialogue in which the understanding that the managers had of the key variables could be altered. The eventual use of a small STELLA model allowed the managers to isolate two specific, micro effects from which the conflict emanated. Further idea sharing allowed a consensus to be achieved on those two and, furnished with this new understanding, the participants aligned behind a single view of the market’s behaviour.

With a Little Help From Our Friends: How third generation system dynamics and the problem structure techniques of ‘soft’ OR can learn from each other
David C. Lane

Abstract: At its inception, the paradigm of SD was deliberately made distant from that of OR. Yet developments in ‘soft’ OR and systems theory now have much in common with current SD modelling practice. This paper briefly traces the parallel development of SD and soft OR and argues that a dialogue between the two would be mutually rewarding. To support this claim, example of soft OR tools are described along with some of the field’s philosophical grounding and current issues. Potential benefits resulting from a dialogue are proposed, with particular emphasis on the methodological framework of SD. The paper closes with some suggestion on how to begin learning from the links between the two fields.

Learning with Model Supported Case Studies
Paul A. Langley

Abstract: Management Flight Simulators (MFS) are now being used together with model-supported case studies in learning laboratories as part of undergraduate, graduate and executive courses, and also with managers in learning organisations. This paper reports results with three groups of undergraduate and postgraduate students, in a business school environment. With one group, a multi-stage experimental design is used to collect a variety of process data, including:

  • students’ evaluation of the learning experiences
  • students’ perception of learning achieved
  • objective testing of students’ understanding

Objective testing includes knowledge about the subject material and case-studies, and the direction of the relationships between variables in the MFS. The process data collected is analyzed and both quantitative and qualitative results are summarised. The results provide insights into the relative effectiveness of learning experiences that use model-supported case studies, as compared to conventional case-study discussion. Two further groups of students are used to compare performance in the MFS with scores on structured assignments (including questions on both the case study and the use of the MFS). A description of workshop protocols provides indications of how model-supported case studies may best be delivered in management teaching curricula.

Multimedia Management Flight Simulators
Paul A. Langley, Erik R. Larsen

Abstract: The Management Flight Simulator is now being established as a tool to facilitate experiential learning with both undergraduate and postgraduate management students, and managers within learning organisations. Existing MFS provide user-friendly reports and graphical representations of historical data, designed to the limits of human computer interface (HCI) good practice. Although, existing MFS make use of sophisticated quantitative databases and models, but lack the softer data: managers’ in-trays, meeting notes, employee feedback, interviews with customers, press and television news reports, industry observers, financial analysts, and so on. Managers in real life rarely make decisions without going to look at a problem for themselves. Using multimedia MFS, users will be able to do the same, by interrogating and making observations using electronic-based media.

Multimedia provides graphics, sound and video interfaces to enrich the students’ learning experience. Desktop personal computers are now just powerful enough to incorporate these new multimedia technologies, including digitising and compressing video pictures.

This paper describes the current state-of-the-art as far as the multimedia hardware and software technology is concerned. The scope of applications possible using these new technologies are discussed. A prototype multimedia MFS is under development, designed to demonstrate the scope and nature of user interfaces possible through multimedia. The prototype will be demonstrated at the ISDC 93 conference.

New Barrels for Old Beer: The Beer Game as a Learning Organization
Lorenzo Lara-Carrero, Arturo Bencosme, Rodger Farrell, Daniel Gil’Adi

Abstract: In this paper we describe a modification of the Beer Distribution Game which we have used with MBA students and executives. In this version, we introduce a change in communication rules at the end of week 24. Our game debriefing addresses all of Senge’s five learning disciplines and stresses the basic question: how do we deal more effectively with underlying structure? This variation on the usual rules shows a way for designing experiments with the Beer Game to improve our understanding of how organizations learn.

The Beer Distribution Game is one of the most successful designs for conveying one of system dynamics’ basic themes: Structure produces behavior. It provides an excellent illustration of feedback mechanisms and delayed effects of decisions which are key components, though generally misperceived, of most dynamically complex systems.

We have used the Beer Game with MBA students and practicing executives, generating rich discussions about different managerial topics, especially the role of communication and coordination. The largest Venezuelan private sector company’s 1992 annual executive meeting provided us an opportunity for trying out a learning experiment with the Beer Game.

Our goal has been to answer a basic question raised by the Beer Game: What can we do to avoid the unhappy consequences of rigid structure and to improve performance? As Senge and Sterman stress: How do we deal more effectively with underlying structure? We have aimed at turning the Beer Game system into a learning organization that takes charge of its future.

A Dynamic Model of Technology Diffusion
James M. Lyneis

Abstract: The diffusion of new technologies into the market is a critical factor in the success of any technology based company. This paper describes a system dynamics model which integrates a number of key concepts presently used to understand the diffusion process (e.g. technical progress functions, cost-experience curves). It shows how these concepts, together with management decisions regarding R&D investment, marketing, and pricing, drive the evolution of diffusion between technologies. It then illustrates how simulation can be used to understand the critical success factors in technology diffusion, and what this means for the management of technology-based companies.

The Savings and Loan Crisis: A System Dynamics Perspective
Roderick H. MacDonald, Anne M. Dowling

Abstract: The savings and loan industry has been the primary source of home mortgages for American families since 1932. Since 1984, however, 25 percent of the savings and loans, approximately 700 out of 2800, have failed. Although the total costs associated with these failed savings and loans have yet to be determined, estimates range from $300 billion to $1 trillion. This paper discusses a system dynamics model of the effects of interest rate risk and default risk focusing on the savings and loan industry. Using the model to test the effects of policy initiatives specific to the prime interest rate and the default risk on loans, the authors demonstrate that the savings and loan crisis might have been lessened or even avoided if the regulators had a better understanding of the system’s structure and the effect of that structure on system behavior.

A Competitive Intelligence System for Total Quality Manufacturing Strategies
Julio Macedo

Abstract: The function of a competitive intelligence system is to generate a manufacturing strategy which is superior than the competition. A competitive intelligence system consists of a set of tools that capture and synthesize the competitors manufacturing strategies in order to generate the desired strategy. A competitive intelligence system that uses reference models is presented here and its use illustrated with a case study. A reference model is a generic system dynamics model which includes the cause-effect relationships that explain the current quality of the competitors products.

Systems Thinking Learning for Management Education, What Are Our Ideas and How Are We Going About It In Sevilla?
Jose A.D. Machuca, Miguel A.D. Machuca, Antonio Ruiz, Jose C. Ruiz

Abstract: A great number of System Dynamicists coincide in our belief that the methods and tools presently used in virtually all management education centres insufficient to cope with an ever more complex reality. For some years now there has been a significant movement within our field which aims to provide alternative ways and tools which will serve to fill the existing gap. Working along these lines we created a work group and started, within the EC Comett framework in 1990, a project termed “Learning laboratories in computer-aided Systemic Business Management”, sponsored by numerous European firms and institutions. The aims of the project are multiple and interrelated: production of learning tools based on System Dynamics, facilitating reflection on causes, design of learning laboratories in business management following a systemic approach, trying out the tools created and checking learning processes for different circumstances, development of training courses, promoting training of trainers.

In a period when the time available to managers is scarce, and increasing complexity makes the need for learning more critical, open learning must play an important role. To this end we must consider creating tools which will allow the user, even in the absence of the teacher, to have as much access as possible to reflection on causes, to decision-making based on causes and not on symptoms, in short to systemic thought. The “transparent box” games mentioned above, together with proper documentation and a special attention to the training of trainers, may represent, in our view, an advance on present tools.

Some Modifications Introduced to Improve the Beer
Jose A.D. Machuca, Miguel A.D. Machuca, Angel Maresca

Abstract: The Beer Game is still today, one of the tools with the greatest impact in demonstrating that the behaviour of a system is generated by its structure. However, we believe that in its original form too much time is needed to play it and carry out a proper debriefing. In addition, it is not always easy to guarantee the hypothesis of isolation for the different positions within the game. Finally, we feel that participants often have difficulty in picking up quickly and clearly the process characterizing the game. To deal with these and other problems we have introduced certain modifications which, in our view, totally or partially resolve these difficulties.

Microworld of an Open University: A Strategic Management Learning Laboratory
Mohamed Mahmoud, Peter Genta

Abstract: This paper describes the work and experience gained by a team using a system thinking approach to developing a microworld to support the strategic planning of Athabasca University (AU), a fast growing opening university in western Canada. The opportunity for this experience arose from an invitation by the university President to teach an introductory course in Systems Thinking to a group of 30 senior management representing the faculty, administration, and the governing council. This work is intended to aid in understanding the dynamic forces which have allowed AU to double the number of courses registration in the past five years while lowering cost to government of providing access to AU from $1,179 to $635 per course registration (in constant dollars) since 1985. This work reports the experience of AU in building a Microworlds® system in order to accelerate organizational learning. The system is based on the system dynamics methodology and was developed using STELLA®. The system has been used to test different scenarios of strategic options which are almost impossible to evaluate otherwise. The system was validated against actual data and was used as management flight simulator to the system till year 2000. Repeated runs of the simulations have proved that quick fixes to one part of the system do not necessarily help its overall performance. It has been found that the process of constructing a simulation model is as valuable for problem solving as the final model itself.

Performance Decision System: An Intelligent to Decision Support System in Manufacturing
Mirharan Markarian

Abstract: Decision Support System (DSS) are commonly used in the manufacturing industry to assist management in decision making processes. There are several major types of DSS systems and each is useful for solving specific manufacturing problems. The development of intelligent DSS systems that can carry out high level reasoning is itself a challenge and a requirement by modern management. This paper illustrates the formulation of a DSS system (called Performance Decision System) that can be used for solving complex manufacturing problems. The DSS system is based on two major types of DSS; System Dynamics and Experts Systems.

Regional Land Use and Infrastructure Dynamics
Norman L. Marshall

Abstract: In almost all urban areas, existing infrastructure (transportation, water, sewer, social services) lags behind desired infrastructure. Planning new infrastructure depends on future land use forecasts. The distribution of future land use is also dependent of on available infrastructure. Due to this feedback, the infrastructure shortfall problem is resistant to solution through infrastructure improvement and local land use regulations. We have developed regional land use/infrastructure planning models that combine fairly simple system dynamics structures with spatially disaggregated databases. The models provide insights about the effectiveness of alternative policies, using detail of the local area that planners need.

Mistela-An Integrated Simulation Model For Telefonica De Espana
S. Martinez, A. Barron

Abstract: The main objective of the MISTELA model is to integrate the different aspects of strategic planning of TELEFONICA DE ESPAÑA into one signal unit. By so doing one is obviously forced to give up many of the small details in order to be able to look at the larger picture. MISTELA uses a systemic approach to construct the model described in, this paper, Systems Dynamics was chosen, since this technique permits straightforward combination of different modelling procedures such as statistical inference, calibration by trail and error, linear and/or quadratic programming, etc. To give an idea of the size of the model, it handles about 1,500 equations, definition and identities. There are some 700 conceptual variables, and because many of these are vectors, in effect there about 4,000 scalar variables.

HARDEXP-A strategic Support Tool For Hardware Expansion
Nestor Mejia, Isaac Dyner

Abstract: This paper presents a system developed to design strategies for organizational expansion based on system dynamics and expert system methodologies. The tool was especially built to plan the expansion of a computing system network.

The prototype developed supports tasks related to strategies design, scenarios generation and system simulation. Examples are exhibited.

Dynamics Consequences of Pricing Strategies for Research & Development and the Duffusion of Innovations
Peter M. Milling, Frank H. Maier

Abstract: The development and diffusion of innovations is a highly dynamic phenomenon. It is influenced by various factors like price, product quality, and market entry time. The paper discusses the impact of pricing strategies on R&D performance and the diffusion of innovations. It is based on a comprehensive decision support model in the field of innovation management. The model consists of two components: (1) an evolution algorithm modeling the processes of corporate R&D, and (2) a DYNAMO-based modul mapping corporate policy making and the structural fundamentals of market dynamics. The integrated model is used to analyze the dynamic consequences of different pricing strategies on research and development, the readiness for market entry and the resulting competitive advantages.

Experiences Teaching System Dynamics At The UK Masters Level
Alfredo Moscardini, Patia Stoyanova

Abstract: This paper describes what is meant by modelling at Sunderland and how System Dynamics fits into this ethos. The teaching and the examples covered in this System dynamics module are different the usual course and the paper deals with our experience in these areas. The reaction of Eastern European ( Bulgarian ) students to this type of teaching is discussed. Students must complete a project in a work placement to obtain a masters qualification. The reaction of companies to the use of System Dynamics ( a new experience for most ) is discussed and examples of the type of projects that have been completed are given. The paper concludes with a description of a Hypercard project which extends the use of System dynamics to Engineering students.

Application of System Dynamics on Policy Analysis of Resources Allocation of Scientific Research
Xu Qingrui, Chen Jin, Wu Gang

Abstract: By the thought of coordinative development between Science & Technology, economy, education and finance, this paper first concerns the problems facing China on the resource allocation of Scientific Research. A comparative study on both developed and developing countries is made. In the meantime, the mechanism of the coordinative development between Science & Technology, economy, education and finance, the coordinative development between Scientific Research (Basic Research), Applied Research & Development as well as the priority of Scientific Research in different stages of social & economic development, a system dynamic model is constructed, focusing the analysis of scale & speed of resource allocation for Scientific Research in China.

A Portfolio Approach to Managing Technological Innovation: Linking Systems Dynamics to Organizational Learning And Group Decision making
Xu Qingrui, Wang Weiqiang

Abstract: Innovation is a topic that has received much attention in the literature in recent years. For the most part, these articles have not solved an important problem facing the managers in today’s large organizations — how to manage a portfolio of interactive product- and process- innovations, addressing the interrelated forces, including monetary constraints, manpower planning & technology capability, to a dynamic environment. By systems thinking of these problems, the author first set up a generic S.D. model as a Microcosm for portfolio analysis of technological innovations. Based on this Microcosm, an experiment aimed at pattern selection of product-& process- innovations was conducted, drawing the conclusion different from the famous Abernathy/Utterback’s. Finally, the mechanism of group decision on project selection of innovation portfolio using the Microcosm was explained, and the group decision support system was constructed.

 

Evolutionary Economics and System Dynamics
Michael J. Radzicki, John D. Sterman

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is fourfold: 1) to survey the literature on evolutionary economics in general; 2) to survey the literature on evolutionary economics modeling in particular; 3) to outline the contribution that system dynamics can make to evolutionary economic modeling; and 4) to present two original, evolutionary, system dynamics models.

This paper begins by noting that the evolutionary perspective has a long distinguished history in the field of economics. Well-known economics such Karl Marx, Richard Eli ( founder of the American Economic Association ), Thorstein Veblen, Joseph Schumpeter, Gunnar Myrdal ( “circular and cumulative causation” ). Kenneth Boulding ( general systems theory ), and Nicholas Caldor ( “increasing returns”), for example, have utilized the evolutionary perspective. Despite this rich history, however, the paper notes that the evolutionary perspective does not dominate economic theory. Two explanation for this are offered: 1) it is not in harmony with neoclassical theory; and 2) it has historically been seen as not amenable to formal modeling.

The paper then presents a survey of literature on evolutionary economics. The survey indicates that the writing on evolutionary economics usually involves one or more of the following ideas: 1) structural change versus change within a given structure; 2) time irreversibility; 3) the second law of thermodynamics; 4) hysteresis; 5) co-evolutionary processes ; and 6) the behavior of thermodynamically open, nonlinear, systems in a far-from-equilibrium state.

The paper next proceeds to survey the literature on evolutionary economic modeling. This survey indicates that economic models classified as evolutionary usually exhibit one or more of the following characteristics: 1) path dependency; 2) multiple equilibra; 3) the ability to self-organize; 4) the ability to behave chaotically.

Next this paper describes an overview of the field of system dynamics and noted that, among other things, it can bring an evolutionary economic modeling process to the field of evolutionary economics. Further, it can be used to create individual models that can be classified as evolutionary, given the criteria mentioned above. Care is also taken to discuss the fundamentals of system dynamics modeling, including the systematic and formal treatment of dynamics and feedback and the creation of models that portray realistic decision making structures.

The paper concludes with detailed presentation of two evolutionary system dynamics duopoly models that generate path dependency, multiple equilibria, and the ability to self-organize.

Fighting Inflation In Argentina: The Crisis of 1982: A SD version of a small monetary, Cagan’s fashion
Juan C. Rego

Abstract: Periodically, at different times of its history, the Argentine economy has been dominated by a vicious circle, well known among developing countries. The Central Bank pays interest on money and such interest is financed through emission of more money thus, causing inflation. In one of these periods: the corresponding to February 1981-July 1982, the accumulated inflation increased to 250 per cent. In 1982, the government decided to reduce the interest rate abruptly, in order to achieve a quick reduction of the inflation rate. However, the year 1982 witnessed the failure of the application of this financial reform. Although the growth rate of liquid assets declined, the inflation rate of July 1982 duplicated the precious month rate. This article reformulates a small economic model, in the Cagan tradition, due to Rodriguez (1986). It was conceived to explain the historic dynamics of the financial indicators, after the reform. Hopefully, the readability of the model should improve, when compared with the original version. And, instead of attributing the dynamics globally to the complex behavior of the system, the paper identifies the cause of this dynamics throughout the causal structure that produced it.

System thinking and the organizational growth: personnel pressure and organizational Equilibrium scissors. A case of the company “BETA”
Kazimierz Roman Sliwa

Abstract: The paper review the experience of a consultancy in the company called BETA. Two goals are pursued: cognitive and methodological. Cognitive goal refers to the System Dynamics methodology applied to a concrete case of the company growth and strategy making within a traditionally dominated accounting framework. Based on symbolic (though keeping similarity to real) data, the article presents the ithink™ model construction and simulation within 3 strategic scenarios: optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic. The methodological objective contains the use of the Partitioning and Tearing Method in the problem conceptualization and model preparation. Although the scope of the paper excluded a possibility of its detailed description, it is argued that this method has proved to be very useful in working with complex problems containing many variables.

A system Dynamics Based Methodology for Numerically Solving Transient Behavior of Queuing Systems
Rahul Kr. Roy, P.K.J. Mohapatra

Abstract: The paper proposes a methodology, of building system dynamics models for queuing systems. The methodology is applied to a variety of queuing systems and it is observed that, the models so developed are more transparent than conventional state-transition diagram and incorporation of real life complexities are easier. In effect working out the transient and steady state behaviour of a wide variety of queuing system becomes easy without going into much mathematical tedium.

Modeling Hybrid Producing System. A Possible Characterization
Rafael Ruiz Usano, Adolfo Crespo Marquez

Abstract: The paper describes the process of modeling, under the system dynamics point of view, a production planning problem which is managed using a hybrid “push/pull” approach.

The results obtained from the hybrid model are compared, for several production scenarios, to those obtained for push and “pull” schemes separately. Computational results are presented and discussed under financial and non-financial perspectives.

Transferring System Thinking And Circumscribing Problems: A Case Study
Jorge Rufat-Latre

Abstract: This paper is a case study on the introduction of systems thinking tools into a research group within a large information service company. The central dynamics involved in this learning process was a continuous goal shift. We address the realities of trying to develop a shared dynamic problem definition, and show how would-be practitioners internalize the material in unexpected and often paradoxical ways.

The diffusion of system thinking in an organization is a slow and challenging process. The issues raised in this paper relate to a real world situation, which required unusual flexibility in the choice and application of learning tools. In addition there was a continuous, client-driven shifting of direction of the project. We found that the systems thinking can be applied simultaneously not only to the goals and the process with a project, but also to the process of defining the project itself.

We found that the system thinking approach enable us to continuously refine the problem definition without providing any resolution at all- which increased tension for all team members. And yet, the approach continued to promote team interest in system thinking as a valid means to address problems.

A Post Keynesian Model Of Macroeconomic Growth, Instability, and Income Distribution
Khalid Saeed, Micael J. Radzicki

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to show that a well-known group of economists known as “Post Keynesians” or “Post Keynesian Institutionalists”, engage in macroeconomic modeling in a way that is strikingly similar to the system dynamics method. It will be argued, therefore, that system dynamics can be used to improve Post Keynesian macroeconomic analysis. In addition, this paper will present an original system dynamics model of macroeconomic growth, instability, and income distribution, that can clearly be classified as Post Keynesian. Of interest is that the model generates, among other behaviors, an economic long wave.

The Dynamics Of Collegial Systems In the Developing Countries
Khalid Saeed

Abstract: This Paper develops a conceptual model of a collegial system working without external adjudication or an institutional charter governing the conduct of its operations. The model is applicable to many of the academic and research organizations established in the developing countries, which have attempted to emulate the equivalent professional organization in the advanced industrial countries but have achieved low efficacy. The analysis suggests that an unadjudicated collegial system is not sustainable, for it will tend to create an authoritarian administration which will impair the collegial norms and misallocate scarce resources to the activities fueling bureaucratization and expansion of administrative scope, while professional autonomy, innovativeness and self-actualized behavior are suppressed. Professional conduct tends to be more-value rational than the bureaucracy since it is subject to reviews by external peers. Thus, legitimation of referent power is essential to creating value-rational decisions which assure a balanced resource allocation that sustains a collegial system. Limiting scope of the administration through an external scrutiny of its conduct or a charter appears to facilitate this process.

Measuring and improving total productivity and integrated approach
Sabegh Jala Sajedi, Sharma Sushil Kumar

Abstract: Productivity is a complex concept. In simple way productivity is defined as the quotient obtained by dividing output by all the factors of production.

Total Productivity = (Total tangible output) / (Total tangible input) Sumanth [1985] defines output as value of finished units of product, value of partial units produced, dividends from securities, interest from bonds and other income added together. The inputs are human, material, capital, energy and other expenses taken together. In the same way the partial productivity is defined as “the quotient obtained by dividing output by one of the factors of production [OEEC, 1950]. In this paper the output factors considered are value of finished and semi-finished goods and the input factors are the cost of labour, managerial, material, capital (capacity), and other expenses.

Desert Island Dynamics: An annotated survey of the essential system dynamics literature
M. Anjali Sastry, John D. Sterman

Abstract: What should every professional dynamicist know? What are the core works defining our field? This survey of the English-language system dynamics literature identifies and summarizes one view of the essential papers, book, games and software programs that have influenced the development of the field. Such a list serves as a means of reflecting on the foundation of current research and practice, thus providing a catalyst for a continuing discussion among system dynamicists on the major themes of the field and the contributions that define them. In presenting this bibliography, the authors encourage other researchers., practitioners and student to add their views to the present effort.

Developing Theory of Service Quality/Service Capacity Interaction
Peter M. Senge, Rogelio Oliva

Abstract: Service quality cannot be measured and tested in as straight forward a manner as in manufacturing. This biases serve businesses to focusing on keeping measurable variables-typically, expenses and work flows-in control, while underinvesting in the intangibles of service capacity and service quality. In the long-term, results can be mediocre levels of service quality, poor customers satisfaction, high turnover of service personnel, and ultimately, higher total costs. In this paper we will present an emerging theory of interactions between Service Quality and Service Capacity, relate this theory to past research in both the System Dynamics and Total Quality Management traditions and outline ongoing empirical testing of the theory.

Stochastic Test on the model for Dental Dentist
Toshiro Shimada, Takahiro Kojima

Abstract: We reported the model for dental diseases at the 1987 and 1992 International System Dynamics Conference.

The model contained 5 sectors; demography, cavities, pyorrhea, baby teeth and technology. The demographic sector covered populations of 5 three-year age groups under 14 years of age and 13 five year age groups above 15 years of age. The cavities sectors and pyorrhea sector were composed of populations of five year age groups, on the other hand, the baby teeth sector used populations of three year age groups. By the technology sector we treated innovation effect on the model.

From the total number of defective teeth, total dental costs in Japan were calculated annually from 1963 and projected to 2025.

We added to this model random number variables, mainly in the demographic sector and we are testing stochastic changes on behaviors of various variables of the model. Simulation runs with random birth rate changes show how their results are changed frm the basic run.

Enhancing cash flow forecasting by the use of system dynamic modeling techniques
Chris Smart, Virginia Bryant

Abstract: This paper examines the use of a system dynamics modelling technique to enhance the contribution made by cash flow forecasts to decision makers’ mental models. It is argued that by making explicit and accessible the dynamic complexity in cash flow relationships, systems dynamics can provide valuable insights for decision making puposes. By permitting the exploration of behavioural responses to perceptions about the financial position of thee business, a richer picture of the decision outcome is developed leading to changes in decision makers perceptions about the riskiness of a proposed course of action. A case study of a commercial organisation is used to illustrate these insights.

A system dynamics approach to Kalecki’s Model
Ma Dolores Soto Torres

Abstract: This paper explores the behavior of the gross investment considerig the linear versions and two non-linear versions from Kalecki’s model. This model assumes that there is an average gestation lag of investment and it is formuled by means of a mixed differential-difference equations.

In each version, moreover we analize, the influence that a parameter has on the dynamics. The response of the model is different, there are cycles but, also, there are monotonic behaviors.

Fuzzy System Dynamics
Bjornar Tessem, Pål Davidsen

Abstract: Fuzzy numbers is presented as an alternative to probabilistic methods for the management of uncertainty in system dynamic model. Fuzzy numbers are particularly suitable to represent vagueness and qualitative values. Fuzzy numbers are used during simulation, but due to interactiveness among variables there is a need for global optimization methods. Some examples that illustrate the use of fuzzy numbers, both directly and as a means to represent qualitative values, are shown.

Genetic Models For Explanation of Complex Production System Dynamics
Daniel Thiel

Abstract: This paper presents one middle term simulations model and its main results. We chose the production systems which produce complex capital goods, for example electrical equipement or household goods. The objective of this type of system is to build up stocks of finished goods which are put at the disposal of the customers. The corresponding macro model was designed by a systemic vision and split into three components which represent the operating, decision and information production sub-systems. The simulation of the generic model has permitted the improvement of system dynamics knowledge. We detected prominent decision loops and some unnecessary loops in production control.

Group Model-building: what does the client think of it?
Jac A. M. Vennix, Wim Scheper

Abstract: In recent years many system dynamics modelers have pointed out that for effective implementation of model results it is that the client participates in the model-building process. This has lead to various more or less successful approaches in group model-building. However, up to now little systematic research has been conducted in the area of effectiveness of group model-building. Systematic evaluation of group model-building is important in order to a) understand how clients and organizations are effected by group model-building; and b) improve the effectiveness of the group model-building proces. In this paper evaluation results are presented of four model-building projects based on clients’ opinions of the successfulness of these projects.

An approach to appraising, diagnosing and designing the structure and function of corporation
Qifan Wang

Abstract: Based on system dynamics, this paper creates an approach of combining qualitative and quantitative analyses, systems thinking, system analysis, synthesis and deduction with a set of models. First, We build up a generic model set with various economic indexes. About several dozen modern management methods have been applied to the different subsystems implied by their parameters and feedback structures.

Comprehensive methods of system analysis inference, synthesis and model sets for studying the socio-economic-ecosystem
Qifan Wang

Abstract: The author explores a comprehensive methods of system analysis, inference and synthesis and model sets for studying complex system. These methodologies and model sets can be used in studying the development strategy and planning of socio-economic-ecosystem. It has been successful in the study of Pudong Economic Zone of Shanghai.

Modification of the concept “change” as a Result of working with System Dynamics model in an Educational Setting
Hugo Wikstorm

Abstract: This article concerns the problems that junior college students encounter when trying to understand and utilize the concept and insights traditionally provided by the teaching of mathematics. In this context, the concept “change” is significant because it is closely associated with the ‘derivative” and the “integral” defined in mathematical analysis.

Our hypothesis is that system dynamics contributes constructively to the formation of the “change” -concept, essential to mathematical analysis. In the study reported i this paper, we investigate how high school students develop their understanding and use of the concept “change” as a result of a course in system dynamics that includes a total of 30 hours of lecture an assignments.

Competition and Succession in the Dynamics of Scientific Revolution
Jason Wittenberg, John D. Sterman

Abstract: What is the relative importance of internal versus contextual forces in the birth and death of scientific theories? Elaborating on the analysis of a model of multiple paradigm competition and scientific development already developed by Wittenberg and Sterman, we find that situational factors present when a paradigm is launched largely determine a paradigm’s probability of rising to dominance. Stronger paradigms that survive the emergence phase live longer than their weaker counterparts, but this too is contingent upon factors present during the emergence period.

Towards a Core set of Archetypal Structure in System Dynamics
E.F. Wolstenholme, D.A. Corben

Abstract: Recent research in the field of System Dynamics has been concerned with defining archetypal structures by which toclassify insights in dynamical systems. For example, Richmond has proposed both infrastructure and activity archetypes, whereas Senge has defined eight relevsnt generic structures. Additionall,Wolstenholme has defined a number of management situations as being made up of actual outcomes which are opposed to those intended.

This paper attempts to condense archetypal structures to a minimum set. It is suggested that most archetypal structures can be reduced to a composition of two feedback loops. Given that these are sufficient, there are then only four possible archetyes which represent the four way or ordering a pair of feedback loops. Further, it is suggested that it is possible to classify all these loop combinations as special cases of ‘unintended consequences’.

A preliminary Design of CSS Production-Distribution Board-Type Simulation Game
H. Young, Shih Hui Lo, Sy-Feng Wang

Abstract: The coordination in industrial systems should be one of the major challenges for future competitive advantages. The issues of industrial system’s coordination have been studied in system dynamics at the very beginning of the field. However, system dynamicists had not put enough efforts to study the industrial “systems”. This paper attempts to use system dynamics approach to study the “dynamics complexity” issues in industrial systems. The Center-Satellite System simulation game (CSS game), which based on Taiwan’s center-satellite industrial system (a huge industrial system with over 120 Center-factories, each with up to 400 networked Satellite-factories) was developed. Future research directions are discussed.

Problems of Population Control in China
Jia-di Yu, Xiu-jin Feng

Abstract: Population is an element in the social system. There are a number of elements in the social systems which will influence the population growth rate. On the other hand, population growth will, in turn, exert influence on other social elements. We can, therefore, apply the system dynamics (SD) model to dealing with the problems of population control. This paper, based on the investigation carried out in Anhui Province of China, conducts a study of the policies concerning population control in China by use of the system dynamics model.

Model-Based Planning for Strategic Management An Integrated Simulation and Learning Toolkit.
Erich Zahn

Abstract: In a world of increasing complexity and turbulence organizations run the risk to loose effectiveness as well as efficiency when managed on the base of linear thinking and shortsighted decision making. System thinking and organizational learning instead will become a prerequisite for competitiveness and survival.

In our paper we propose an “integrated simulation-learning toolkit” to support strategic decisions in the field of flexible assembly systems.

With the help of this toolkit the user will be led through a structured modelling process in which he will develop his specific managerial microworld. Starting from a generic model the user follows different stages of abstraction and specification.

Expansion Policy for a Telephone Comapany
Enrique Zepeda Bustos

Abstract: Busy lines are a persistent and persuasive problem common to all telephone systems, whether it counts with the most advanced digital technology and network management or no, there will always be a period during the day on the week where telephone calls cannot be completed due to busy line with the resultant loss of revenue. If expansion programs for telephone lines were not in accordance to actual demand growth telephone calls, this problemwill grow to the point where retrials would seriously impairthe telephone system operation. This paper describes the use of a system dynamics model for designing and evaluating expansion policies that respond to actual demand and ameliorate problem.

1992 Proceedings – Utrecht, Netherlands

The 10th International Conference

of the System Dynamics Society

1992 – Utrecht, Netherlands

The following papers were presented at the conference in parallel and plenary sessions. The original printed proceedings, edited by Jac A. M. Vennix, Jan Faber, Wim J. Scheper and Cees A. Th. Takkenberg were printed in hardcopy and distributed at the conference. Below please find the Paper Index for these proceedings. Papers are listed alphabetically by the last name of the first author. Available papers are Acrobat (.pdf) files and can be read using Acrobat Reader available from adobe.com.

 PAPER INDEX – listed alphabetically by first author:

Aiszhu, Lu with Hu Zheng   An Oil-Field Planning Support System Based on System Based on System Dynamics
Akkermans, Henk    Participative Modeling to Support Strategic Decision Making in Operations – A Case Study
Amsyari, Fuad     Insertion of Input-Output Model into System Dynamic Approach
Aracil, Javier with Miguel Toro    Qualitative Behavior Associated to System Dynamics Influence Diagrams
Bakken, Bent E.     Frequency and Experiential Learning in Unstable Markers
Barlas, Yaman with Ibrahim Bayraktutar    An Interactive Simulation Game for Software Project Management (SOFTSIM)
Bean, Michael with Ernst W. Diehl, David P. Kreutzer    Strategy Simulation and Scenario Planning: An Application of Generic System Structures
Bingzheng, Yang with wu Xu Guang, Yang Futuau    Professional Training of Engineer on System Dynamics
Cavaleri, Steven A.    System Dynamics: A Form of the Integrative System Approach
Chan, Nguyen    Evolution Dynamics of Some Two-Phase Systems
Chen, Chun-Yu with Donp-Liang Hwang    Safety Promotion of Process Operations in the Chemical Process Industries
Corben, D.A. with E.F. Wolstenholme    As Hypermedia based Delphi Tool for Knowledge Acquisition in Model Building
Davidsen, Pål I.    The Structure-Behavior Diagram: Understanding the Relationship Between Structure and Behavior in Complex Dynamic Systems
Diehl, Ernst W.    The Model as a Lens: Combining Modeling and Data Support Systems to Aid in Executive Decision-Making
Di Stefano, Julia M.    Negotiating Needs: Using Cybernetics and Syntonics to Rewrite the Script
Dyner, Isaac with F. Javier Diaz S.    A Model for Management Modernization and Institutional Improvement
Faber, Jan with Wim Scheper    Taming the Decision Tide within Organizations: Some Theoretical Considerations and Experimental Results
Fey, Willard with Frank Spital    The Evaluation and Development of Knowledge Acquisition in System Dynamics Studies
Frechette, Henry M. Jr. with Frank Spital   Organization Design and the Dynamics of Performance over the Long Term
Giani, U. with A. Filosa   Is Thalassemia a Dynamical Disease?
Govindarajan, M.    System Dynamics and the Credibility Syndrome
Govindarajan, M.    Behavioural Dynamics and Marketing Technology-Based Products
Guangle, Yan    Structure Analysis of Complex Systems and its Application
Hall, Roger I.    Investigating Organizational Learning with a Corporate System Model Using Artificial Intelligence Procedures
Harten, Aart van    Decision Support for Storm Surge Barrier Control
Hu, G. Gary with Shih Hui Lo    Understanding Cyclical Pattern of Taiwan’s Housing Market: A System Dynamics Approach
Jacob, Fatima P.    The Management of Public Distribution System in India- A Dynamic Perspective (The Case of Tamil Nadu)
Jacobsen, Chanoch with Robert J. House    The Dynamics of Charismatic Leadership in Organizations
Jimenez, Salustriano with Isaac Dyner    Research and Development for Corporate Survival : A Case Study of a Brewery Corporation in Columbia
Kampmann, Christian with John D. Sterman    Do Markets Mitigate Misperceptions of Feedback in Dynamic Tasks?
Kaupe, Guido    SDACQUIRE A Tutorial for Imparting the Methodical Foundations of System Dynamics
Kemeny, Jennnifer M. with W. Brian Kreutzer   An Archetype Based Management Team Flight Simulator
Kim, Daniel H. with Gary Burchill   System Archetypes as a Diagnostic Tool: A Field-based Study of TQM Implementations
Kleijnen, Jack P.C    Sensitivity Analysis of System Dynamics Models: Regression Analysis and Statistical Design.
Kreutzer, W. Brian with David P Kreutzer, Janet M. Gould    The Quahog Oil Production Simulator: A Case Study of the Rapid Development of a Management Flight Simulator for Training
Lane, David C.    Observing the Process: Reflections On Issue Selection And Model Conceptualisation In A Case Study Concerning The Dynamics Of Programmer Recruitment
Lara-Carrero, Lorenzo with Arturo Bencosme, Rodger Farrell, Racquel Benbunan    Viasa’s Microworld: A Strategic Management Learning Laboratory
Roche, U. La    System Dynamics Analysis, a Prototyping Tool for Production System Design
Litwin, George H. with Kathleen Lusk Brooke, T.R. Nelson    The Dynamics of Diversity
Liz, Manuel with Margarita Vazquez    The System Dynamics Concepts of Model<
Macedo, Julio with Rafael Ruiz Usano    An Expert System for Conceiving Company Wide Quality Control Strategies
Maier, Frank H.    R&D Strategies and the Diffusion of Innovations
Marble, Robert P.    A Stage – Theoretic Approach to Information Systems Planning in Existing Business Entities of Recently Established Market Economies
Crespo Marquez, Adolfo with Rafael Ruiz Usano    New Production Planning Systems: A System Dynamics Perspective
Mashayekhi, Ali Naghi    From Static Picture to a Dynamic Problem Definition
Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad T.    A Dynamic Model for Development Planning in an Arid Area
Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad T. with Mohammad Kazemeyneen, Hamideh Azizkhan    Renal Stone Model System Dynamics Approach
Mora, J.C. with R.S Bes    Cross Analysis of Dynamic Modelling of an Economical Energy System and a Dissipative Physical System
Morecroft, John D.W.    Design of a Learning Environment. The Oil Producers’ Microworld
Morita, Michiya with Nobuhide Tanaka    A Simulation Analysis for Renovation of the Hierarchical Structure
Moxnes, Erling    Continuous Models and Discrete Time Series Data
Moxnes, Erling    Cartel Behaviour in Commodity Markets
Onn, Shing-Chung with Kuang-Horng Wang, Jen-Ko Wei, Tai-Hwa Hor    Numerical Stimulation of a New Correlation Function for the Climatic Statistical Structure of the Height Dynamic Field
Postma, Th. J. B. M. with M.T.Smits, S. Terpstra, C.A. Th. Takkenberg    Personnel Planning in Health Care: An Example in the Field Of Rheumatology
Pujantiyo, Bambang S. with Yoshio Hanzawa & Atsushi Fukuda    A Policy Support Model for the Scheduling Transportation Projects
Radzicki, Michael J.    MicroWorlds and Evolutionary Economics
Radzicki,Michael J. with W. Scott Trees    An Institutional Dynamics Approach to the Study of Peace and World Order
Raynolds, Peter A. with Gennie H. Raynolds    Jog Your Right Brain (JOG): A Case Study in Knowledge Elicitation and Evaluation
Rego, Juan C.    Dynamics of the Stabilization Process after Argentine Hyperinflation in 1985
Reinhardt, Rüdiger with Ulrich Schweiker    Building Learning Organizations: Implementing Organizational Learning Processes, and the Theory of Self-Referential Systems
Reszat, Beate    Dissipation and Chaos in Foreign Exchange Markets
Richardson, George P. with David F. Andersen, John Rohrbaugh, William Steinhurst    Group Model Building
Roberts, Carole with Brian Dangerfield    Estimating the Parameters of an AIDS Spread Model Using Optimisation Software: Results for Two Countries Compared
de Rooij, A.    Does System-Dynamics Limit The Growth Of System-Dynamics?
Saeed, Khalid with N.L. Bach    Chaos out of Stiff Models
Saeed, Khalid    Slicing a Complex Problem for System Dynamics Modelling
Schweiker, Ulrich with Rüdiger Reinhardt    Implementing Organizational Learning Processes vs. Top Down Approaches
Sedehi, Habib    System Dynamics for Budget Planning Evaluation in Public Environments
Seeger, John A.    “Open” Systems, Closed Minds
Senge, Peter M.    You Can’t Get There from Here: Why Systems Thinking is Inseparable from Learning Organizations
Shimada, Tosiro with Hirokazu Mizushima, Takahiro Kojima, Koichiro Okumura    Innovation Effect on the Model for Dental Diseases
Shoukath, Ali K. with N. Ramaswamy    Catastrophic Behaviour in System Dynamics Model for Blood Bank Management
Toro, M. with J.J. Arrabal, L.Romero    Piecewise Linear Analysis of an Influence Diagram
Tu, Yi-Ming with Naeyi Shiao    Integration of System Dynamics and Rule Based Reasoning Mechanism
Tu, Yi-Ming with Ching-Yee Young    A Study on the System Dynamics Modeling of Business Technology Management Decision Support System
Vázquez, Margarita with Miguel A. Quintanilla & Bruno Maltrás    The Spanish Research and Development System: a Model for the Equilibrium Conditions Between the Offer and the Demand of New Researchers
Walter, John P. with Carol Lopilato    An Artificial Intelligence Approach to Socio- Economic Simulation: Application to the Economic Integration of Europe
Wang, Sy-Feng with Showing H. Young    A Preliminary Experiment on Examining Thinking in a Meta-Dynamic Decision Making Environment
Wang, Qifan with Xu Bo    Inner Mechanism of Corporations and How to Incite Their Vigour
Wang, Qifan with Xiaobo Zhang    The Study of the Raw Materials Industry Development in China by Using a Combined Approach of Qualitative & Quantitative Methods
Wang, Qifan with Zheng Shaolian, Fu Xinhua    System Diagnosis & Evaluation and Study of Management Techniques & Methods Application in Corporations
Wang, Qifan with Jin Yin    Primary Factors Dominating the Development & Changes of a Metropolis
Wang, Xiaoting with Limin Song    Dominant Structure Analysis: Another Approach
Wijnhoven, Fons    Model Management by Means of Computer-Based Information Systems in Managerial Contexts
Wittenberg, Jason with John D. Sterman    Modeling the Dynamics of Scientific Revolutions
Wolpert, Arlen    Application of System Dynamics to the Study of a Religious Experience
Young, Showing H. with Jenshou Yang, Sy Feng Wang    Enhancing the Learning Effects of Dynamic Decision Game on Systems Thinking-An Experimental Study
Zhen, Fang    A Study of Energy Supply and Demand System on Village Level

1992 Proceedings Supplement

Chevalley, Thierry F.D.    Central Europe: From Central Command Economies to Free Markets
O’Neill, Kevin    Market Structures, Trading Strategies, and Feedback: Rethinking Neoclassical Price Discovery
O’Neill, Kevin    Real-Time Tragedies: A Simulated “Commons Learning Laboratory”
Qinling, Zhang with Zhang Baoping   Pansystems Theory and Automatic Causality Reasoning in System Dynamics
Weil, Henry Birdseye with William J. Dalton   Risk Management in Complex Projects

CONFERENCE ABSTRACTS

An Oil-Field Planning Support System Based on System Based on System Dynamics
Lu Aiszhu, Hu Zheng

Abstract: In this paper, we connected the principles of System Dynamics with the intellectualized Decision Support System, proposed a theory and method system of “Simulation-Optimization-Planning –Decision”. An applicable Oil-Field Planning Support System is being built.

Participative Modeling to Support Strategic Decision Making in Operations – A Case Study
Henk Akkermans

Abstract: In this paper a case study is described in which a consultancy method based upon participative modeling was used to support strategic decision making in the field of operations. In this case study the Dutch client company faced serious logistical and financial problems after an attempt to attain competitive advantage through drastic improvement of it delivery speed. The modeling project produced several valuable insights. These insights have resulted in a better logistical performance at lower cost. The participative approach taken in the project has made implementation of the recommendation resulting from the project easier. It has also resulted in a better quality of systems thinking and a better understanding of the operations system throughout the company. In short, in organizational learning. This case study has been conducted within a research project aimed at the development of a modeling orientated consultancy method to support strategic decision making in operations. Several observations made in this case study with respect to the development of this consultancy method are discussed.

Insertion of Input-Output Model into System Dynamic Approach
Fuad Amsyari

Abstract: Input-Output Model (I/O model) is an approach developed in economic world for development planning of a Nation. The model founded by a Noble Prize Winner, Prof. Leontief, focused the operation on the determination of production of economic commodities needed for development of a nation. The mathematical aspect of the model requires matrix analysis using equation (A-I)*X=Y as the basic calculation. Surprisingly, I/O model has received wide appreciation for calculating the economic of many nations, including developed countries such as US, Denmark, and Japan, and developing countries such as Indonesia as well.
On the other hand, system dynamic approach founded by Prof. Jay Forrester are getting more attention in recent years and people start thinking of using the approach to solve various national development problems. However, since the application of the technique for establishment of world model, no one country yet uses comprehensively the approach to the national development planning. There has been a case study using the technique to exercise the development of Java Island Ecosystem in Indonesia, but it still needs to be more promoted for further application of the theory.
As the development process of a nation does not anymore cover only economic concerns, while the environment and social dimension of a country are getting more attention, a national development planning will certainly requires a more comprehensive approach to analyze alternative scenarios to the development of the country. In such a case system dynamic approach seems to meet the requirement of a national development planning.

Qualitative Behavior Associated to System Dynamics Influence Diagrams
Javier Aracil, Miguel Toro

Abstract:The paper introduces a simple dynamical system associated to the influence diagram, which contains only qualitative information. It is analysed how with the information in the influence diagram only limited conclusions about the behavior of the system can be reached. However, with some extra qualitative information regarding the relative weight of the influences those limitations are overcome.

Frequency and Experiential Learning in Unstable Markers
Bent E. Bakken

Abstract: Long delivery delays and long asset life times can create market conditions that are not conductive to learning. An experiment recreated market cycle of 8 to 23 years. Subjects operated in a sequence of two 40 period market trials. The hypothesis that learning is helped by higher market frequency was corroborated, yet it was found that subjects transfer poorly when market frequencies remain unchanged across trials. This is explained by the fact that subjects in the changed frequency condition also expect a changed environment and so adjust behavior. When subjects do not expect change in market behavior, as in the unchanged frequency condition, subjects induce negative transfer, i e they transfer decision timing from the past. Since the markets’ external environments never remain identical, such transfer is less appropriate than structural transfer. Implications for stabilizing unstable markets and training professionals are finally laid out.

An Interactive Simulation Game for Software Project Management (SOFTSIM)
Yaman Barlas, Ibrahim Bayraktutar

Abstract: Various uses of system dynamics models in understanding and managing software projects have been discussed in a series of articles by Tarek Abdel-Hamid and  Stuart Madnick. Our work extends Abdel-Hamid and Madnick’s work by constructing a simulation game that can be used by mangers as a participatory learning laboratory. The game is implemented on IBM-PC environment, using the graphics-based spreadsheet software WingZ. Initial tests of the simulation game have demonstrated it to be robust and realistic. The game is now in the process of being tested extensively by players with different backgrounds: undergraduates and graduate students of system analysis, faculty members, and software/MIS professionals. In addition to describing the game, our talk will contain lessons learned from these extended tests and experiments. The presentation will also involve an active demonstration.

Strategy Simulation and Scenario Planning: An Application of Generic System Structures
Michael Bean, Ernst W. Diehl, David P. Kreutzer

Abstract: Using a generic model framework, a consortium comprised of three manufacturing firms and one service company was able to create realistic representations of their internal and external competitive environments and analyze the consequences of their competitive strategies. The interface designed with the framework has proven to be a useful tool to support decision makers when they present their findings and analyses to their colleagues. Strategy simulations and the resulting scenarios can be useful tools for understanding the interrelationships of different elements within a competitive system and for identifying critical leverage points that may help a firm create a competitive advantage over its competitors.

Professional Training of Engineer on System Dynamics
Yang Bingzheng, wu Xu Guang, Yang Futuau

Abstract: In this paper a professional training schedule on system dynamics for engineers is discussed on the basis of ten years teaching and training practice.
Three main parts are considered in detail. These are theory, practice, and final performance test. All examples included are to meet the specific necessity of engineers, and are coming from practical problems.
An overall block Diagram of Training is presented. Practice shows this schedule is efficient and attractive.

System Dynamics: A Form of the Integrative System Approach
Steven A. Cavaleri

Abstract:There are many different systems approaches and styles of systems thinking that have developed over the past three decades. There a few conceptual frameworks on which to compare the relative merits of each approach. This paper will propose such a conceptual framework, the “systems paradigms framework”. Within the context of this framework new systems approach will be described. It is labelled the “integrative systems approach”. It will be argued that the system dynamics perspective is the best existing example of the integrative approach. The integrative approach will be compared to the hard systems, soft systems, and cybernetic systems approaches, in terms of the systems paradigms framework.

Evolution Dynamics of Some Two-Phase Systems
Nguyen Chan

Abstract: We treat some problems of controlling the development of a two-phase system which is identified with the evolution of its inter-face. First we study the class of so-called decision change regimes and find out an estimate for the number of decision changes. Then we consider the possibility of optimal control in this class.

Safety Promotion of Process Operations in the Chemical Process Industries
Chun-Yu Chen, Donp-Liang Hwang

Abstract: This paper discusses how to use the simulation data obtained from the adiabatic reaction calorimeter (ARC) to design the emergency relief system for chemical reactors and storage vessels to overcome the problem of reactors explosions resulted from excessive pressure and thus the disastrous incidents can be avoided. Here the styrene polymerization reaction is choosen as the reaction system to describe the design of emergency relief system using the ARC data. The simulation results show that the change of the initiator and the monomer concentration will influence the maximum temperature, pressure and the rate of temperature rise in the reactor. The simulation results also illustrate that in the designing of the emergency relief system, the larger the overpressure is, and the smaller the vent diameter will be needed.

As Hypermedia based Delphi Tool for Knowledge Acquisition in Model Building
D.A. Corben, E.F. Wolstenholme

Abstract: The Delphi method has been used as a method of knowledge capture and consensus building in a variety of social and managerial areas for a considerable period of time and more recently it has been applied in the field of System Dynamics.
This paper describes research into the development and application of a computerised version of the Delphi method to assist the development of System Dynamics models. It has been developed in the context of project aimed at improving the design and assessment of computer based information systems.
The features of a Hypermedia based Delphi system that has been developed for the Apple Macintosh are described and the results of its application to a modelling exercise are discussed, with particular emphasis on its ability to create consensus influence diagrams.

 The Structure-Behavior Diagram: Understanding the Relationship Between Structure and Behavior in Complex Dynamic Systems
Pål I.Davidsen

Abstract: One of our major challenges in system dynamics, and a prerequisite for successful policy design, is to establish an understanding of the relationship between the structure and the behavior of complex, dynamic systems. In this paper, we propose the utilization of a combination of a phase- and a time-plot, called a structure-behavior diagram, to obtain such an understanding. To demonstrate its usefulness, we apply the diagram in order to explain the transient behavior of a simple ecological system and illustrate the dynamics of its modes of behavior under changing harvesting intensity. Our discussion focuses on equilibria and shifts in the dominant polarity and indicates a qualitative difference between the two with respect to resistance to bifurcations.

The Model as a Lens: Combining Modeling and Data Support Systems to Aid in Executive Decision-Making
Ernst W. Diehl

Abstract: System dynamics models and executive information systems have complementary strengths in aiding decision making. Information system has vast data retrieval and presentation capabilities. Models provide a dynamic framework for exploring the long-term, systemic implications of decision and polices. This paper reports on an attempt to combine the two approaches-using the model as a lens to structure and view data sets. This paper briefly describes the lens-based executive information system method and explores four tangible benefits of this integrated approach to decision-making.

Negotiating Needs: Using Cybernetics and Syntonics to Rewrite the Script
Julia M. Di Stefano

Abstract: Negotiation between individuals, groups, and nation has been much in the news lately, and has merited the attention of system dynamic modelers, as was evident at the plenary session on negotiations at the 1990 International System Dynamics Conference. The “Behavioral Simulation Model of Single and Iterative Negotiations” presented there by Darling and Richardson provided a realistic model of critical factors negotiators take into account “while engaged in a joint decision-making process that leads to an outcome” (1990,299). This paper uses their model to explain why “long-term interdependent relationships…[sometimes] drift into increasingly competitive, acrimonious behavior…”(240). Using a fictional piece–“Tell Me a Riddle” by Tillie Olsen–this paper explores “the source of these [competitive] dynamics [which] may be found in the negotiators’ cognitive characteristics –the structure of problems they confront, their situational goals, and their behavioral limits and biases…” (240). After analyzing the behavior of the negotiators– a couple that has been married for forty- seven years–this paper reframes the power distribution in the relationship and re-writes the script, using cybernetics and syntonoics, a system of interpersonal communication based on “being in tune with one another linguistically”(Elgin, 1987,23). The resulting script saves the wife from becoming a victim of her husband’s verbal abuse, and leads to more satisfactory negotiations.

A Model for Management Modernization and Institutional Improvement
Isaac Dyner & F. Javier Diaz S.

Abstract: This paper reports results of research on modelling to support management modernization and institutional improvement. It considers middle and long term strategies, and it analyses the effect of successful programs.  System Dynamics, an appropriate methodology to support institutional planning, may help to understand system organization, its internal structure and the impact of policies and external perturbations. Strategies analyzed here are based on information systems, management decentralization, and leadership.
Simulation results are useful to understand the pertinence of selected strategies.

Taming the Decision Tide within Organizations: Some Theoretical Considerations and Experimental Results
Jan Faber, Wim Scheper

Abstract: A STELLA model of a simple production organization is used to investigate the effects of different types of coordination on the adaptation of the organization to its changing environment.

The Evaluation and Development of Knowledge Acquisition in System Dynamics Studies
Willard Fey, Frank Spital

Abstract: An examination of knowledge acquisition techniques and knowledge representation structures used in expert system development and technology forecasting, helped to determine how to elicit information from System Dynamics analysts. In this ongoing research, insights from the literature on knowledge acquisition, combined with knowledge elicited from System Dynamics analysts, are being used to develop an approach designed to improve the knowledge acquisition processes and structures used during the problem formulation and model conceptualization activities of System Dynamics. Also, preliminary insights are presented regarding the selection of knowledge acquisition techniques and knowledge representation structures.

Organization Design and the Dynamics of Performance over the Long Term
Henry M. Frechette, Jr., Frank Spital

Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of organizational design and its impact on long term business performance. There is evidence that organizations progress through a series of cycles. We examine the organization design recommendations of Forrester in terms of their impact on delays in a company. We then run a small simulation to explore the impact of these delays on long term company performance. We conclude that most organization structures act to impede long term performance.

Is Thalassemia a Dynamical Disease?
U. Giani, A. Filosa

Abstract: Recently the traditional view of “health” as “regularity” has been challenged, and normality is conceived as a sort of constrained randomness and pathology as a loss of the so called spectral reserve. Dynamical diseases would be due to changes in the qualitative dynamics corresponding to bifurcations in the non linear equations describing the system. In this respect, some hematological diseases were modeled in terms of differential-delay equations by assuming a delayed regulation of blood cells production. In the present paper the temporal evolution of the hemoglobin destruction rate of 23 thalassemic children is analyzed. The results indicate that these models are to be partialy revised and that Thalassemia can be conceived as a dynamical disease. A relation between the qualitative dynamics of Hb rate of destruction and the clinical evolution is suggested.

System Dynamics and the Credibility Syndrome
M. Govindarajan

Abstract: Classical system dynamics has been presented as a paradigm in its own right. Causal explanations and repeated simulations are the main forte of the method. However, the perceptions on the nature and purpose of the method are so varied that many researchers cannot even place system dynamics in taxonomy of modelling methods. It is difficult to assess the value of system dynamics and justify the choice of such a method. Does the method lack real life significance and suffer from a credibility crisis? The paper looks at the credibility problem from both a philosophical and researcher’s perspective.

Behavioural Dynamics and Marketing Technology-Based Products
M. Govindarajan

Abstract: The technology-based products are marked by the severity of learning requirements for the users. Marketing efforts should, therefore, represent not only promotional but detailing activities as well, to overcome the behavioural, technological and related marketing constraints faced by the products. Sales, though a significant factor, does not, by itself, explain the intricacies of the dynamics of marketing. The study tries to explain the nature of interactions amongst behavioural variables that contribute to the successful marketing of technology-based products.

Structure Analysis of Complex Systems and its Application
Yan Guangle

Abstract: With the continuing rise of the complexity of objects, it becomes more and more important and urgent to study the complexity of systems. However we still feel difficult in treating large scale and complex systems in technique because of the high order, multiloop and nonlinerity. In the light of synergetics, a new method of structure analysis is developed. It may have not only the theoretical, but also the practical meanings in the parameter estimations, system optimization, model simplification, dominant loop determination, policy test, etc.

Investigating Organizational Learning with a Corporate System Model Using Artificial Intelligence Procedures
Roger I. Hall

Abstract: An Artificial Intelligence (AI) model the mimics the behavioral processes of managerial policy making is outlined. The model takes an equation set representing a System Dynamics (SD) corporate model and interprets it as a surrogate cognitive map of the organization’s domains. The model seeks policies to satisfy the goals of all departments or, where this is not feasible, the goals of the dominant departments only. These polices are used to drive the SD model for a simulated year and the results are fed back to affect organizational learning, that in turn affects the policies adopted for the next period, and so on. Experiments can be run to investigate the effects of performance on organizational learning and vice versa.

Decision Support for Storm Surge Barrier Control
Aart van Harten

Abstract: Accurate simulation of the dynamics of the aquatic system requires the use of rather advanced hydraulic models. Here lies a key problem, which will be discussed in this paper. How to determine an adequate simulation model and numerical solution scheme which combine accuracy and real time response as necessary for this barrier control application. It will be clear that in case of operational control of a storm surge barrier one is confronted with several potentially conflicting objectives and requirements. Flood protection is usually the main objective, but several other aspects than safety will be important in finding an effective control strategy. This situation has characteristics of multi-criteria decision making. Altogether the complexity of obtaining justified closure decisions requires a multi-disciplinary decision team. In this paper we shall also discuss the structure of decision support systems to optimise storm surge barrier control operations. Starting point will be the system as used for the Eastern Scheldt barrier, but also some recent research results based on applications of more advanced tools from systems theory and optimal control theory will be discussed in the sequel. Attention will be payed to the following natural question for modelbased support system: which quality characteristics are important for the model, (accuracy, robustness), what sort of optimisation is performed and how is it implemented , how is uncertainty handling taken care off, how is the interaction between the human decision making team and the models.
Also, the effectiveness of the planning of closure operations upto now will be evaluated

Understanding Cyclical Pattern of Taiwan’s Housing Market: A System Dynamics Approach
G. Gary Hu, Shih Hui Lo

Abstract: The housing market of Taiwan thrived in the years of 1973, 1980, and 1987 respectively, and the rises of every seven years in housing price have brought numerous social and economic problems. In order to understand the micro-structure of the housing market, we developed a system dynamics model of the market’s multi-sector, in which landowners, construction companies, house buyers and house speculators are included. The interactions among decisions of various sectors formulate the micro-structure of the model. Through computer simulation, the cyclical fluctuations are generated and some macro-behaviors of the housing market model are explained.

The Management of Public Distribution System in India- A Dynamic Perspective (The Case of Tamil Nadu)
Fatima P. Jacob

Abstract: Public Distribution System (PDS) in India is a consumer-side intervention in the food market. There are two basic aspects of evaluating the effect of policy intervention in PDS. One is analyse the overall percapita availability of cereals and the other is the percapita consumption. Based on this, the proposed system dynamics model looks at the intended Government policies to ensure whether the objectives of the PDS have been achieved.

The Dynamics of Charismatic Leadership in Organizations
Chanoch Jacobsen, Robert J. House

Abstract: An integrated theory of charismatic leadership was developed, and a System Dynamics model built of that theory. Applying the model to J.F. Kennedy, four data sets relating to the Peace Corps were successfuly reproduced by the model with the same set of initial values, attesting to the sensitivity of the general theory and model to the manifestation of JFK’s charismatic leadership.

Research and Development for Corporate Survival : A Case Study of a Brewery Corporation in Columbia
Salustriano Jimenez, Isaac Dyner

Abstract: The model presented in this paper establishes the role of Research and Development for survival and growth of a brewery corporation in a particular environment. Simulation results confirm poor performance under pessimistic scenarios including little investment in research, high competition and poor political, economical and social conditions.

Do Markets Mitigate Misperceptions of Feedback in Dynamic Tasks?
Christian Kampmann, John D. Sterman

Abstract: We test the ability of the market forces to mitigate the dysfunctional effects of systematic ‘misperceptions of feedback’ – mental models, which ignore critical elements of a task’s feedback structure –demonstrated in prior experiments. We create a simulated multiple- agent market under two feedback complexity conditions (simple and complex) and three-market institutions (fixed, market clearing, and posted prices). While performance relative to optimal in the market clearing and posted price condition, complexity significantly degraded relative performance in all conditions. Markets moderate but do not eliminate the negative impact of misperceptions of feedback.

SDACQUIRE A Tutorial for Imparting the Methodical Foundations of System Dynamics
Guido Kaupe

Abstract: In today’s “Information Age”, the steadily rising requirements for communication and assimilation of knowledge present us with the constant need to confront new knowledge acquisition methods. One of these methods is Computer Assisted Learning or Computer Based Training. Because of the clear advantages evident in this type of instruction, the German-language computer-based tutorial SDACQUIRE was developed in the Department of Policy Management in Industry at Mannheim University. The goal of this program is to impart to the user the methodological fundamentals of System Dynamics.
This paper presents a description of various aspects of the program’s development, implementation and application. Following a brief exposition of the evolution and benefits of Computer Assisted Learning, a description is given of the important aspects of the modular development of SDACQUIRE. A discussion of the components of individual lessons is then provided, leading into a final section on the interactive communication connected with the program’s use.

An Archetype Based Management Team Flight Simulator
Jennnifer M. Kemeny, W. Brian Kreutzer

Abstract: The potential of simulation technology to facilitate learning has been evident for many years. Yet in our experience most Management Simulators, while interesting and fun, are only partially fulfilling that potential. Particularly challenging has been the use of simulations to support team rather than individual learning. In the past two years Innovation Associates and Gould-Kreutzer Associates have produced and used Management Team Flight Simulators (MTFS) which support team learning through several new approaches. Our experience in creating these MTFS provides strong anecdotal evidence that with these approaches a very simple model can have a powerful impact on team learning.

System Archetypes as a Diagnostic Tool: A Field-based Study of TQM Implementations
Daniel H. Kim, Gary Burchill

Abstract: System dynamics provides an important set of principles and methods for helping people gain a better understanding of complex systems. The use of computer simulation models is often positioned as the culminating outcome of most system dynamics efforts. As a field, system dynamics has traditionally downplayed the usefulness of simple pen and paper level tools because the real value is perceived to be in the computer model. Total Quality Management (TQM), on the other hand, utilizes almost exclusively, pen and paper types of tools and has had a high level of successes in having them used widely. This is the case despite the fact that causal loop diagrams and systems archetypes often capture a much richer picture of a system than most TQM diagramming tools. In this paper, we outline a general approach to diagnosis using systems archetype, causal loop diagrams, and semantics in the development of a structured process for mapping organizational change efforts.

Sensitivity Analysis of System Dynamics Models: Regression Analysis and Statistical Design.
Jack P.C Kleijnen

Abstract: This tutorial gives a survey of strategic issues in the statistical design and analysis of experiments with System Dynamics models. These models may be either deterministic or random. The strategic issues include what-if analysis and optimization. The analysis uses regression (meta) models and Least Squares. The design uses classical experimental designs such as 2 k-p factorials, which are efficient and effective. If there are very many inputs, then special techniques such as group screening and sequential bifurcation are useful. Some applications are discussed briefly.

 

The Quahog Oil Production Simulator: A Case Study of the Rapid Development of a Management Flight Simulator for Training
W. Brian Kreutzer, David P Kreutzer, Janet M. Gould

Abstract: The People Express Management Flight Simulator (Sterman 1992) developed a new area of research in the use of interfaces to enhance the learning value of system dynamics simulation models. Participants impressed with the learning power of the People Express learning laboratories frequently ask how they can have such a simulator customized for their own company or industry. This case study describes the rapid creation of a simple, yet highly dynamic and descriptive model (with a graphical interface) of a national oil company, and the experimental introduction of that model into an already established new employee training program in that organization.

Observing the Process: Reflections On Issue Selection And Model Conceptualisation In A Case Study Concerning The Dynamics Of Programmer Recruitment
David C. Lane

Abstract: When performing interventions with practising managers, questions arise concerning the approach which should be used to generate and select the issues to study without biasing the process towards a system dynamics framework. This paper describes a project in which care was taken to observe the stages of the process to facilitate reflection on the project’s development. The case involved two managers from an information technology department and evolved into a study of the dynamics of their new programmer recruitment policy. Early use of the ‘magnetic hexagon’ approach allowed articulation of the issues and focussing of interest on one issue. Policy structure diagramming was used to elicit a model and computer implementation and scenario generation followed naturally. The paper closes by recording the insights gained by the clients and by proposing some general lessons on techniques for structuring the early stages of consultancy projects.

Viasa’s Microworld: A Strategic Management Learning Laboratory
Lorenzo Lara- Carrero, Arturo Bencosme, Rodger Farrell, Racquel Benbunan

Abstract: This paper describes work and experience gained by a system dynamics team in developing a microworld to support a strategic management learning laboratory at Venezuela’s international airline Viasa and a computerized case study at IESA. The opportunity for this experience arose from an atmosphere of change produced by Viasa’s transition from state to private ownership. This work is intended to form part of a managerial development effort at Viasa and as a teaching and research tool at our business school.

System Dynamics Analysis, a Prototyping Tool for Production System Design
U. La Roche

Abstract: Streamlining a production process shortening leadtimes and sqeezing inventories and cost are the highlights of any company restructuring. Efficient factory planning is in the end usually good logistic system design. But to master the many concurrent problems of an efficient logistic system design in a company it either takes time to digest all the local improvements or one needs an integrative method to structure these intertwined problems.Applying SDA opens the second method, which consistently proved to be faster and more efficient. This also includes the problem of proper embedding the MRP-system. Analysis of the process-chains of an important machine-tool production including sales and supply is reported as an illustrative exemple.

The Dynamics of Diversity
George H. Litwin, Kathleen Lusk Brooke, T.R. Nelson

Abstract: What organisational decisions actually cause diversity? Does diversity in mix of employees lead to diversity in range of output? This paper puts forward a set of hypotheses regarding the systems that generate (or limit) diversity in organisations. Our client organisation is the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), whose stated goal is to provide a broad, diverse range of programming –such diversity being appropriate to the BBC’s very broad and diverse audience. To achieve this goal, the BBC has set forth a human resources strategy of hiring and promoting diverse groups of people. Their premise is that diversity of people, under certain measurable conditions, will lead to diversity of output. Our model allows experimental study of the effects of feedback on the dynamics of diversity. This research is relevant to organisations concerned with diversity, with matching their market composition, or with fostering innovation. Results of recent studies will be available at the conference and by written request.

The System Dynamics Concepts of Model
Manuel Liz, Margarita Vazquez

Abstract: When modeling and simulation in System Dynamics, we can find many different uses of the term “model”. Although these uses are very interrelated among them, and with other uses this term in science, technology and philosophy, they serve to very specific and diverse goals and purposes. This paper tries to sketch a general framework in order to analize that wide variety of uses the term “model” has in System Dynamics. Sometimes, the differences among some of these uses will be so important that more than different uses of a term associated with a single concept, we could speak of different and mutually irreductible concepts. Nevertheless, whether theses uses of the term “model” are associated with a single underlying concept or with different concepts, all of them are perfectly integrated in System Dynamics. Our point is that this is one of the main sources of its great success for making clear our ideas and for managing our actions trought complexity.

An Expert System for Conceiving Company Wide Quality Control Strategies
Julio Macedo, Rafael Ruiz Usano

Abstract: Currently there are three methods for conceiving company wide quality control strategies, the participative approach, the simulation approach and benchmarking approach. All of these methods present shortcomings. This paper presents a new qualitative method based on system dynamics and an expert system that includes this new method. The expert system is applied to conceive the company wide quality control strategy of a manufacturing firm.

R&D Strategies and the Diffusion of Innovations
Frank H. Maier

Abstract: Various factors like price, delivery delays and product quality influence the diffusion of innovations. This paper discusses-among other aspects- the impacts of research and development (R&D) strategies on the technical know- how of a product as a strategic factor. To investigate the interrelations of R&D, market performance of products, pricing and profits and to draw conclusions for corporate strategy, an innovation diffusion model is needed, which represents the underlying problem structure adequately. This paper presents such a model.

 A Stage – Theoretic Approach to Information Systems Planning in Existing Business Entities of Recently Established Market Economies
Robert P. Marble

Abstract: Recent experience with existing businesses in the newly added eastern states of Germany has shown a tendency toward the immediate (and often rash) acquisition of current information systems technology for the support of operations. In many cases, the lack of planning reflected in these actions has led to disappointments and subsequent requests for help. The scenario evinced by these situations is reminiscent of the principles espoused in Richard Nolan’s stage hypothesis for information systems growth (1979). In this paper, possibilities are discussed for better understanding the unique set of circumstances presented by these situations, in light of the Nolan hypothesis, with a system dynamics approach.

New Production Planning Systems: A System Dynamics Perspective
Adolfo Crespo Marquez & Rafael Ruiz Usano

Abstract: This paper describes the evolution of production planning systems under the system dynamics approach. The structure, feedback loops and decision making process are analyzed under different “pull” & ”push” operation management techniques such as order point, base stock, MRP, KANBAN, etc. The study is made in chronological order, with the main objective being pointing out the procedures of controlling the system’s behaviour, arisen from the new production technologies development. Simulation results are presented for several cases.

From Static Picture to a Dynamic Problem Definition
Ali Naghi Mashayekhi

Abstract: Problem definition is the first and the most crucial stage in any System Dynamics study. A good and clearly defined problem is prerequisite to a good System Dynamics modeling. However, the way that a good dynamic problem is defined is subtle, is not well formulated and is not well taught. This paper presents a structured approach to dynamic problem definition that starts from static picture of the real world and turns it into a dynamic problem. The paper argues that most people are familiar and capable to present static picture of the situation of a real world system. The paper uses such a familiar picture as a starting point to define a dynamic problem. The approach is applied to develop a problem definition for a railway company as an example.

A Dynamic Model for Development Planning in an Arid Area
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh

Abstract: Yazd is one of the regions in the central district of Iran, entirely dependent on ground water for its water supplies. In such regions, as economy grows demand for water increases, but a serious economics crisis also appears due to depletion of ground water reserves. In this paper, a System Dynamics model is presented to analyze the interaction between socio-economic development and limited water resources. The model shows how the crisis would occur. The alternative policies is adopted to prevent such a crisis.

Renal Stone Model System Dynamics Approach
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad Kazemeyneen, Hamideh Azizkhan

Abstract: A clearly defined etiology for urinary calculi has not yet been established. In this paper, a primary System Dynamics model is presented to a better understanding the process of renal stone formation. The paper attempts to explain why in most patients who have recurrent formation of calculi, urinary excretion of calcium is normal, and why can not be over emphasized on hydration in the prevention of urinary calculi.

Cross Analysis of Dynamic Modelling of an Economical Energy System and a Dissipative Physical System
J.C Mora, R.S Bes

Abstract: Actual Dissipative Systems are not workable without energy supply and energy dissipation. Among these systems are economical systems as well physical system such as fluidized bed. A System Dynamics Analysis of a simple macro- economical system related to the energy sector of a country shows causal loops including energy supplies. This analysis can applied to a fluidized bed. This system is a classical engineering dynamic system. Due to its complexity it has been highly investigated on the basis of time averaged regimes but a few studies exist about the true dynamical aspect. This is mainly due to the fact that the basic equations are complex. Several length and time scales exist simultaneously. The theoretical equations should comprise the classical hydrodynamic equations for fluid containing solid particles in suspension. The complete set of theoretical equations is for the time being not available. From analogies with the economical systems it is possible to identify causal loops which are not usually considered in the classical modelling of a fluidized bed, i.e. interaction with energy supply. Introducing this phenomena and using a very simple equation it is possible to show that space structuration can occur. Then by using a simplified non-linear hydrodynamic equation a chaotic complex behavior, in agreement with experiments, can be simulated. The analysis of the model shows that one of the origin of the difficulties to use the models lies in the existence of several time and space scales. This kind of analysis is helpful to understand fluctuant behavior of many other systems including economical systems.

Design of a Learning Environment. The Oil Producers’ Microworld
John D.W Morecroft

Abstract: New gaming software coupled to detail- rich readings (such as case studies and newspaper clippings) promise more effective ways for widespread dissemination of model-based insights. However, gaming- simulators have often been criticized for encouraging superficial thinking aimed solely at ‘beating the computer’ rather than understanding business and social problems.
To avoid the so-called ‘video-game syndrome’ it is necessary to embed a model in a workshop that includes briefing materials and a gaming protocol to encourage reflection, discussion and discovery.
This paper reports on a computer-based learning environment for the oil industry –an oil producers’ microworld. Game players (who need not be familiar with system dynamics) can take the role of different oil producers and create their own industry scenarios for oil price, production, OPEC quotas and crude oil reserves. The paper describes how participants are briefed about the oil industry, systems thinking and the model’s feedback structures. Samples are provided of the gaming interface and model generated scenarios. 

A Simulation Analysis for Renovation of the Hierarchical Structure
Michiya Morita, Nobuhide Tanaka

Abstract: The hierarchical structure of pyramidal shape which is adopted by most of relatively large organizations is now the target of renovation to raise the capability of adaptation in changing environments. The objective of this study is to obtain relevant insights for redesigning the structure. A simulation analysis is tried to investigate information processing properties that determine to a great extent the effectiveness of the organization. Several derivatives of the hierarchical structure, which are realistically likely candidates from which appropriate choices would be made, are the targets of the analysis. A set of implications will be provided as the results of the analysis.

 Continuous Models and Discrete Time Series Data
Erling Moxnes

Abstract: We consider cases where reality is best described by a continuous model, and where data are sampled at discrete points in time. Then an exact transformation of the continuous model into a discrete one, or vice versa, is typically very complicated. Simplified transformations might produce great errors if the sampling interval for the time series is approaching natural periods or time constants of the system being modelled. For such problematic cases we discuss implications for a system dynamics, traditional discrete model econometrics, and Bayesian statistical methods.

Cartel Behaviour in Commodity Markets
Erling Moxnes

Abstract: A theory for the behaviour of cartels is advanced. The theory deviates from the received literature on three main points: Cartel behaviour is derived from literature on human behaviour rather than from principles of profit maximization, the theory focuses on commodity markets rather than being general, and it deals with the timing of formation, break down, expansion and dissolution. The theory is stated formally in a simulation model, which seems to replicate well the qualitative behaviour of cartels. Historical accounts of the timing of cartel events lend support to the theory.

Numerical Stimulation of a New Correlation Function for the Climatic Statistical Structure of the Height Dynamic Field
Shing-Chung Onn, Kuang-Horng Wang, Jen-Ko Wei, Tai-Hwa Hor

Abstract: For the long-term period in the low-latitude region of the earth, the statistical structure of the height dynamic field at 500 mb during the winter seasons has been studied successfully by using a new correlation function. {ρ (r)=A (r) *EXP [ B(r) ]} where A( r ) and B( r) are two general polynomials. The best selections of the degrees of these two polynomial can be found in the least –squares sense. The results show that this new mixed-type correlation function can yield more accurate fitting than Gandin’s formula (1963) {ρ ( r )=a * EXP (-b*r **2) }. The height dynamic fields at the regular nest grids are then computed and compared with those obtained from the measured data at irregular observational stations. The troughs of the resulting height dynamic fields can be identified very clearly.

Personnel Planning in Health Care: An Example in the Field Of Rheumatology
Th. J. B. M. Postma, M.T.Smits, S. Terpstra, C.A. Th. Takkenberg

Abstract: This paper describes a methodology for manpower planning in health care. The methodology is applied in the field of rheumatology. This methodology uses the concept of political rationality: different actors with different mental models, goals, languages and power interact in a bargaining process with incomplete and imperfect information. A Group Decision Support Systems approach is advocated where interactive model building stimulates shared meaning and communication. In health care important decisions usually have a multi-level and multi-actor character. A bottom up procedure, starting at the detailed level gives a justification when aggregating to an higher level. Consequently the project was started with discrete event models before applying continuous simulation like system dynamics. Besides the modelling and communication processes the creation of a network of key decision makers in health care applying this approach is seen as a major product.

A Policy Support Model for the Scheduling Transportation Projects
Bambang S. Pujantiyo, Yoshio Hanzawa & Atsushi Fukuda

Abstract: The rapidly growth of trade industries on the developing countries can be predicted that on the near future occurs many problems, especially the problems like as piling up by the goods at the port and passing over of capacity by the trucks at the road. These problems can be solved by the improvement on both a port and a road. However, it is suggested that because the budget constraint these regards can not be conducted at the same time. The scheduling projects strategy which priories the vital projects as the first implementation is the one technique that can be considered. However, to appraise the economic impact of this implementation, an existing trade industries system model is required. This appraisal is an interesting regard as the consideration for the planner in case to decide the better transportation planning. Based on the existing trade industries, this paper proposes a model which can appraise the economic impact of the scheduling transportation projects by using System Dynamics Methodology.

MicroWorlds and Evolutionary Economics
Michael J. Radzicki

Abstract: This paper discusses the use of microworlds in evolutionary economics. A macroeconomic microworld is presented as an example.

An Institutional Dynamics Approach to the Study of Peace and World Order
Michael J. Radzicki, W. Scott Trees

Abstract: Although computer simulation modeling has long been used to study issues in peace and world order, it has not resolved the controversy surrounding peace research. The problem is the lack of a well-defined methodological rudder to guide the modeling process. In this paper, a new methodological approach to the study of peace and world order is proposed, and its merits discussed. This approach is a synthesis or marriage of institutional economics, system dynamics computer simulation modeling, and peace and world order studies.

Jog Your Right Brain (JOG): A Case Study in Knowledge Elicitation and Evaluation
Peter A. Raynolds, Gennie H. Raynolds

Abstract: During the process of system dynamics modelling of organizations, policies or problem, R-mode (so called “right brained”) procedures, such as the JOG exercise, seem especially relevant (1) in the early phases, when an elicitation of ideas, variables, considerations and concepts having possible relevance is undertaken, and (2) during any of the modelling phases, when an unbiased evaluation is desired, perhaps in addition to more traditional: “objective” L- Mode assessments. JOG is described, as it was employed with top and middle managers of a small US hotel chain, in developing a preliminary system dynamics model for a new corporate vision.

Dynamics of the Stabilization Process after Argentine Hyperinflation in 1985
Juan C. Rego

Abstract: During the first years of the 80’s decade, the continual financing of the argentine deficit fiscal, throughout the emision of new money, pushed Argentina to the verge of hyperinflation. In June 1985, the seriousness of such a situation compelled the governing party, the Union Civica Radical, to adopt hard policies of stabilization, afterwards known as Plan Austral. In this article a SD version of a small dynamic model is presented – in Cagan’s tradition (1956), conceived by Fernandez and Mantel (1985)-of the mentioned Argentine stabilization process. Dynamic simulation is used to analyse the macroeconomic behaviour.

Building Learning Organizations: Implementing Organizational Learning Processes, and the Theory of Self-Referential Systems
Rüdiger Reinhardt, Ulrich Schweiker

Abstract: This paper refers to the assumption that the major paradigm of System Dynamics, General Systems Theory, is not able to provide adequate models of organizational learning processes. It is shown that the theory of self –referential systems is able to overcome current theoretical weaknesses: Considering the difference between communication, the basic operation of social systems, and thoughts, the basic operation of psychic systems, a framework for organizational learning is proposed. Consequences for the management of organizations, especially their strategic change resp. the building of learning organizations, are discussed.

Dissipation and Chaos in Foreign Exchange Markets
Beate Reszat

Abstract: Studies of chaos in foreign exchange markets often lack a theoretical underpinning. This paper tries to give some reasons why exchange rate movements may become chaotic. Starting from an assumption about different groups of traders that goes beyond recent models of fundamentalists’ and chartists’ behaviour it argues that, to capture the idea of chaos, foreign exchange markets have to be modelled as a dissipative system and not, as usual, as a closed conservative one. A qualitative system dynamics approach is chosen to demonstrate the complex interaction processes arising.

Group Model Building
George P. Richardson, David F. Andersen, John Rohrbaugh, William Steinhurst

Abstract: Ongoing research in the Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and policy is focusing on strategies for efficient and effective model building in groups. The intent is to involve a relatively large client group in the business of model formulation, not just conceptualization. Recent projects have explored strategies for accelerated group model building in the context of two public policy problem areas: the burgeoning cost and caseload of foster care in New York State, and recent unexplained increases in Medicaid costs in the state of Vermont.
Five roles appear to be essential to support effective group model building efforts. We term the five roles the facilitator, the content coach, the process coach, the recorder, and the gatekeeper. This article identifies the five roles, briefly overviews the two problem areas, sketches the design of the group model building efforts, outlines the apparent results, and hypothesizes principles and strategies to guide future group modeling efforts.

Estimating the Parameters of an AIDS Spread Model Using Optimisation Software: Results for Two Countries Compared
Carole Roberts, Brian Dangerfield

Abstract: Few real life case study examples exist concerning optimisation in system dynamics models. This study reports an attempt to estimate relevant parameters of an AIDS spread model in order to check whether the chosen model structure can be separately parameterised and thereby explain the course of the epidemic for more than one country. The UK and USA are the two countries selected and the parameter values derived are reported for each. The values obtained are not inconsistent with emerging knowledge about the epidemic and the subsequent optimised projections reveal that the peak of the homosexual epidemic has been or is about to be reached in both countries.

 Does System-Dynamics Limit The Growth Of System-Dynamics?
A. De Rooij

Abstract: The paper describes from a client point of view some experiences with system-dynamics during the first year of Nostradamus. Nostradamus is a project, which aims at simulating the senior management of a large Dutch governmental organization with an one action orientated engeneers approach to adopt a more outwardly-orientated, creative and flexible attitude. In the beginning of the project the use of system-dynamics was intended as a central guiding aid in the proces of organizational growth. The intended use proved considerably more extensive than the actual use. Insofar this regression is attributable to system-dynamics we, as a client of system-dynamics, see in this regression a possible challenge for system-dynamics.
We think system-dynamics could have been a more central supporting aid in Nostradamus if we would have found well-documented experience with system-dynamics in comparable situations. We suggest the system-dynamics-society to develop certain activities in order to stimulate demand and to better link up demand and supply in the area of systems-thinking.

Chaos out of Stiff Models
Khalid Saeed, N.L. Bach

Abstract: While nonlinear combinations of multiple modes existing in complex oscillatory systems may generate chaotic behavior in real systems, the studies of chaos attempted in system dynamics have often resorted to forcing simplistic models of systems to chaos. This paper illustrates how chaotic modes have been constructed through the creation of mis-specifications and anomalies in the model structure and parameters. This process has not only reduced the models to artifacts with little relevance to problem solving but has also invariably introduced a stiff structure that is susceptible to considerable building up error as numerical integration methods are used with long simulation times. The paper concludes that a model must qualify as an empirically valid system by meeting the requirements of the normal system dynamics practice if the chaotic modes it generates are to be of practical value.

Slicing a Complex Problem for System Dynamics Modelling
Khalid Saeed

Abstract: Since formal modelling requires having a model boundary encompassing finite complexity, so deductive logic is possible, complex problems must be partitioned into simpler parts before being analysed. There are many ways to slice a complex problem but not all create partitions that keep together processes contributing to effective policy design. This paper explore ways in which a complex problem may be appropriately sliced so the models of the partitions can serve as effective tools for policy design.

Implementing Organizational Learning Processes vs. Top Down Approaches
Ulrich Schweiker, Rüdiger Reinhardt

Abstract: This paper describes a case study of applying organizational learning principles to the strategic change of a large German automotive company which seems to be successful alternative to the usual top-down approaches. Different models of implementing change processes are discussed, and their adequacies are assessed regarding to the degree of supporting self-transformational processes within the organizational.

System Dynamics for Budget Planning Evaluation in Public Environments
Habib Sedehi

Abstract: To the date, Budget Plan definition in Italian public companies is approached with insufficient deepness. We believe this is common to other countries too.
Indeed, most public organizations develop the Budget Plan basing themselves only upon the available data and not upon knowledge acquired in years of experience. Balance sheet data are therefore obtained simply adding to the previous information, an amount estabilished, for example, on the expected inflation rate.
This approach although “trivial” supports the budget responsible, because during the budget presentation, very few elements can be effectively criticized.
It is commonly accepted that also public companies find themselves in turbulent environments. This is due to both the increased number of endogenous variables, and to the complexity of exogenous parameters. Therefore the Budget Plan definition becomes always more critical, and consequential difficulty of its evaluation assumes relevant importance.
The paper describes an experiment carried out by an Italian Public company which is adopting a dynamic economic- financial model for both, Budget Plan definition and for its evaluation.
The model is based upon System Dynamics approach and evaluates a series of scenarios providing support to the budget definition responsibles in taking strategic policy decisions, and better “explaining” the effects of decisions undertaken.

“Open” Systems, Closed Minds
John A. Seeger

Abstract: System Dynamics has not achieved widespread recognition as a paradigm of substance in the business-related disciplines of Strategic Management, Organization Behavior, Organization Theory, or Operations Management. One reason for its slow acceptance by academicians in these fields and related social sciences may lie in the specialized meanings and usages attached to common words by the System Dynamics lexicon. Words such as “open,” “closed,” “feedback,” and “structure” — used differently than established scientists might expect –may create perceptions that System Dynamicists simply don’t understand systems theory. Writers in the field need pay special attention to the semantic implications of their presentation.

You Can’t Get There from Here: Why Systems Thinking is Inseparable from Learning Organizations
Peter M. Senge

Abstract: Organizational learning is intrinsically systemic, because it deals with changes in thinking and acting not only in individuals, or in teams, but organization-wide. Our ability to understand and improve organizational learning will depend on having an operational systems framework, which can both sharpen theoretical insights and address practical management concerns. Building on past work in organizational learning and system dynamics, the new Center for Organizational Learning at MIT is attempting to develop a rigorous foundation of systems principles and methods so that current interest in organizational learning and “ learning organizations” can lead to significant advances in management theory and practice.

Innovation Effect on the Model for Dental Diseases
Tosiro Shimada, Hirokazu Mizushima, Takahiro Kojima, Koichiro Okumura

Abstract: We gave a report on the model for dental diseases at the 1987 System Dynamics Conference.
The model consists of 4 sectors: demography, cavities, pyorrhea and baby teeth. The demographic sector covered population of 5 three-year age groups under 14 years of age and 13 five-year age groups above 15 years of age. The cavities sectors and pyorrhea sector were composed of population of five-years age groups, on the other hand, the baby teeth sector used population of three-year age groups.
From the total number of defective teeth, total dental costs in Japan were calculated annually from 1963 and projected to 2025.
We added to this model a new level variable which is technology (rate variables and multipliers) in order to demonstrate to the effect of technology on the other level variables. New simulation results will be reported at the International System Dynamics Conference this year.

Catastrophic Behaviour in System Dynamics Model for Blood Bank Management
Ali K. Shoukath, N. Ramaswamy

Abstract: This paper explores the advantages of System Dynamics as an enquiry method for analysis of blood bank management Systems which exhibit far reaching social implications. Causal loop diagrams are developed connecting various system components. The integration of individual causal loops is presented in the form of an influence diagram representing the ‘dynamics’ of a blood bank. Simulation model is built on the basis of causal loop diagrams. The system response exogenous disturbances or policy changes are analyzed. The catastrophe model of blood bank system is developed and the parameters forming the control surface and behaviour surface are correlated with those of the System Dynamics model.

 Piecewise Linear Analysis of an Influence Diagram
M. Toro, J.J. Arrabal, L.Romero

Abstract: To each causal diagram, and the structure that it represents, a dynamical system can be associated. From its qualitative analysis, the behaviours associated to the structure can be deduced. This paper introduces a piecewise linear dynamical system associated to a causal diagram. Some interesting results on the qualitative behaviour of the system can be obtained from this dynamical system. In this paper a method is proposed to implement automatically the construction of a piecewise linear dynamical system to each causal diagram, the study of its equilibria and its stability. This allows us to obtain, automatically, the behaviour modes associated to a causal diagram.

Integration of System Dynamics and Rule Based Reasoning Mechanism
Yi-Ming Tu, Naeyi Shiao

Abstract: After providing a framework for integration of System Dynamics and Expert Systems, this paper builds theoretical bases to integrate three main features of rule based reasoning mechanism into conventional System Dynamic models. Then we start to modify the System Dynamics modeling tools to adopt the integrated features. To illustrate, we demonstrate a prototype for integrated theories above.

A Study on the System Dynamics Modeling of Business Technology Management Decision Support System
Yi-Ming Tu, Ching-Yee Young

Abstract: This paper is a research on the integration of system dynamics, protfolio and scenarios. The prototyping is used in developing the system dynamics model which is focused on the activities of business technology management. At here, we will discuss about the implementation and some simulation results of the BTMDSS model.

 

The Spanish Research and Development System: a Model for the Equilibrium Conditions Between the Offer and the Demand of New Researchers
Margarita Vázquez, Miguel A. Quintanilla & Bruno Maltrás

Abstract: The System Dynamics model which we are presenting here has been prepared with the purpose of examining the relations between the number of existing grant-holders in Spain and the number of researchers in active service in the sectors of Higher Education, Business and Public Research Organisms. The aim is to examine these variables in order to analyze the conditions of balance between the offer of potnential researchers trained while holding grants and the demand for new researchers trained while holding grants and demand for new researchers on the part of the science and technology system in Spain.

An Artificial Intelligence Approach to Socio- Economic Simulation: Application to the Economic Integration of Europe
John P. Walter, Carol Lopilato

Abstract: It is often difficult to accommodate judgmental information together with quantitative data in an economic model. One approach is to embed human decision-makers as role players within a simulation exercise. Their behavior is recorded by the computer system, becoming a part of the modeling process. We consider some of the human interface requirements to accomplish this integration, a methodology using supervised linkage of spreadsheet with DYNAMO models, and an example of its application toward modeling the 1992 economic unification of Europe.

 A Preliminary Experiment on Examining Thinking in a Meta-Dynamic Decision Making Environment
Sy-Feng Wang, Showing H. Young

Abstract: For system dynamicists, it is important to understand how humanbeing solving problems and making decision in the real world. However, how humanbeing solving problems and making decision in the dynamic causal feedback environment are still not well understood both in psychology and in system dynamics. This paper is a preliminary study which attempts to deal with issues of problem solving, thinking strategy and pilot knowledge in a so called meta-dynamic decision making environment. The task was a computerized beer game modified from the board type beer game. Experiment results showed that there existed a goal-strategy dynamics in human problem solving. The thinking strategy contained both “structure-understanding” and “non-structure- understanding”. The pattern’s pilot knowledge from previous trials had influence on some subjects’ decision making. It’s possible influences in real world are discussed. Finally, from experiment results, two general problem solving processes ( the servomechanism process and cybernetic process) are proposed. Implications for system dynamics management flight simulator and systems thinking are also discussed.

Inner Mechanism of Corporations and How to Incite Their Vigour
Qifan Wang , Xu Bo

Abstract: In order to understand the inner mechanism of corporations and incite their vigour, we create a model which provides us with the study of the development of new product R&D and advanced technology absorption, product life period, market promotion, the adjustment of the length of working time, productivity and hiring or firing of workforces.

The Study of the Raw Materials Industry Development in China by Using a Combined Approach of Qualitative & Quantitative Methods
Qifan Wang, Xiaobo Zhang

Abstract: China’s economy had got its newest growth during the “No. 6 Five Year Plan” period, however, the problem of unbalanced production structure in China’s economy system turned to be more obvious and serious, reflected by the fact that the base economic production, defined as energy production, transportation and raw materials production faced a bigger lag in satisfying the social demand. Raw materials industry, including ferrous metal industry, nonferrous metal industry, chemical industry, building materials industry and forest industry showed even more serious tighteness in meeting the demand. The paper tackles with such a compliacated economy system by combining the qualitative method and quantitative methods. We believes that such a combined approach is effective in dealing with problems associated with a planned, but more and more market orientated economy, such as the economy system of China.

System Diagnosis & Evaluation and Study of Management Techniques & Methods Application in Corporations
Qifan Wang, Zheng Shaolian, Fu Xinhua

Abstract: It is important to apply modern management methods and means to raise the productivity in modern era. But there isn’t powerful and systematic tool, we developed a tool and a series model which based on S.D. theory to diagnose the corporation structure and evaluate the effect of management methods application in corporation.

Primary Factors Dominating the Development & Changes of a Metropolis
Qifan Wang, Jin Yin

Abstract: City grew, stagnated and then declined in the past two centuries. This is a general pattern in history in our world. Clearly, there must have been some powerful factors at work. This paper tries to make an explanation of such phenomena.
Primary forces behind economies of agglomeration and urbanization and behind diseconomies of agglomeration are explained and revealed.  
Furthermore, in order to avoid such passage, some principles and ways are explored by system dynamic theory and modeling.
The development pattern of a metropolis is closely related to its inner dynamic structure. Policymakers should be well informed and adjust the structures accordingly.
Developing new zones adjacent to a metropolis is an effective way to pump the new life into the city. Meanwhile, the coordination and equilibrium between the new and old areas should be appropriately arranged and incorporated.
The paper makes a study of the macro relationship among the flows of population, manpower, raw materials, funds and information between two zones and the impact of transportation problem on the whole city.
Taking an example of Shanghai, a megalopolis, a series of policies for rebuilding up the functions of the city are suggested.

Dominant Structure Analysis: Another Approach
Xiaoting Wang, Limin Song

Abstract: In this paper, we put forth another approach to the dominant structure analysis, which we call parameter elasticity method. This method is based on the law of differentiability of solution with respect to parameter. It concerns itself with the dominant structure that contributes most to a particular behavior or behavior change. By applying this law, we develop the new method and new qualitative indexes to determine the dominant structure of a system.
This new method has some advantages. One is that it can be applied directly to nonlinear systems without linearization. Another is that it can be accomplished within DYNAMO. In some condition, it may be a good guide to model simplification.

Model Management by Means of Computer-Based Information Systems in Managerial Contexts
Fons Wijnhoven

Abstract: Models and computer-based information systems frequently meet resistance and suspicion by management, because they often do not meet the knowledge demands of management in a company. Solving this problem requires approaching modelling and information systems development as a management discipline. This discipline involves the activities of developing, maintaining, effective using, and conserving of models and systems. The paper concludes with a normative view of the relation between management levels and model management activities, and considers the possible use of computer-based information systems for effective model management.

Modeling the Dynamics of Scientific Revolutions
Jason Wittenberg, John D. Sterman

Abstract: Scholars have long attempted to understand the nature of scientific change. Is science characterized by the steady application of universally-accepted norms of logical inquiry, or is it an enterprise that periodically reconstructs itself from new fundamentals? One of the best-known examples of the latter view is Thomas S. Kuhn’s Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Kuhn argues that new theories replace old ones rather than build upon them, and in the process revolutionize science’s very image of itself (1962:84-85). Scientific progress is seen not as a steady accumulation of truths, but “as succession of tradition-bound periods punctuated by non-cumulative breaks” ( Kuhn 1970:208).
Kuhn’s theory has had enormous influence in the social sciences, but it is also of enduring interest in the physical sciences (Barnes 1982; Lightman and Gingerich 1992). The notion of paradigm has, rightly or wrongly, been used to legitimate alternative methods of research as well as to delegitimate dominant modes of inquiry. Nonetheless, although ‘paradigm competition’ has become well-established in the academic lexicon, little is known about what such competition actually entails. How do internal and contextual forces interact to shape and constrain the development of new paradigms? Why do some paradigms last for centuries while others quickly wither?

Application of System Dynamics to the Study of a Religious Experience
Arlen Wolpert

Abstract: This paper informs the scientific and religious communities about a breakthrough in the study of religion: System Dynamics is being used to model and simulate the experience of a mystic during the time when he traversed the dramatic road to mystical union. The paper briefly presents how his modelling task is being approached and some of the key insights being made by focusing on the dynamics of the important dark night of the soul phase which preceeds mystical union. This gives a synopsis of the essence of my book manuscript, A Meditation of Mystical Union.

Enhancing the Learning Effects of Dynamic Decision Game on Systems Thinking-An Experimental Study
Showing H. Young, Jenshou Yang, Sy Feng Wang

Abstract: This study attempts to examine the effectiveness of our proposed learning environment for systems thinking, and the effects of different kinds of task’s screen design for the interactive dynamic decision game to enhancing the learning effect. Two experiments were implemented for the two investigation purposes. In the first experiment, we found that the proposed learning environment was viable for learning resulting from the positive effects of challenging goal setting and causal feedback on the increase of participants’ motivation and understanding of the game. In the second experiment, the effects of causal feedback was examined directly by the comparisons of three different kinds of task’s screen design including causal, hierarchical, and department types. We found causal type of screen design induced more analytical cognitive type just as the prediction of the inducement principle (Hammond,1998) and outperformed the other two screen design as predicted by the correspondence-accuracy principle (Hammond,1998). But the effect of causal type on performance improvement was not significant. The insignificant effect of causal relations task’s screen design on performance improvement revealed that the learning of systems thinking relied mainly on “by doing” or “by failure”, not on “by knowing”. In conclusion, we suggested that the design of dynamic decision game aided systems thinking learning environment should take the motivation factor into account to lead participants make more efforts to learn systems thinking by doing through failures. Although causal relations type could not improve learning effect significantly, however, it induced corresponding causal analytical cognitive type that is beneficial to the learning of systems thinking.

A Study of Energy Supply and Demand System on Village Level
Fang Zhen

Abstract: Firstly, the network diagram of energy supply and demand system was drawn then a linear optimized model of integrated energy with economy, the target of which is the least cost of energy supply, was developed to optimized the best energy supply structure. Secondly, according to above results, an SD model was built up to predict and to study the developmental changes of the system from the long point of view. Finally, the two models combined was applied to a village with a population of 800 people in the North China Plain and results of computer simulation showed on the base year (1990), if energy transformed devices were invested properly, the cost of energy supply system will be lowest on the condition of meeting the energy demand, at the same time it can save energy, and the energy supply is sufficient. But, with the development of economy and the upgrading of people’s living level, the energy supply will become an important factor for rural economy development. Several alternative plans designed to simulate the system gave different influences of energy to economy.

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1992 Proceedings Supplement

Central Europe: From Central Command Economies to Free Markets
Thierry F.D. Chevalley

Abstract: Central Europe faces a decade of restructuring due to the move from centrally planned economies to free markets. Its economic evolution into the current structure of resource utilization and output composition is traced by using a dynamic model. Major production factors and their interaction are simulated to quantify the issues of the transition: these include the transformation of traditional industries and their reorientation towards services, the parallel transfer of ownership of assets and financial intermediaries, restructuring the labor pool, demographic changes and energy efficiency.

A drop in economic output and living standards precedes the recovery from devastations caused by 40 years of central government planning. The time delays and cost of the transition lead to structural unemployment, changed participation in the labor force and migration in the short term. Active Western involvement in trade, technology transfer, retraining of human resources and investment is required for any economic assistance to be effective in generating growth and slowing migration.

Market Structures, Trading Strategies, and Feedback: Rethinking Neoclassical Price Discovery
Kevin O’Neill

Abstract: This paper focuses on the financial markets crash of October 1987 to examine the effects of trading strategies and other institutional structures on price behavior during this period. It presents a system dynamics model which looks at average, aggregate stock prices. It specifies connections among various trading sites and techniques. In particular, it examines the influence of financial and technological innovations such as stock-index futures and other derivative instruments and high speed order execution and transaction systems on market performance. A major conclusion is that the financial markets are characterized by complex structures only partially economic in nature. This suggests that the interplay between market pricing behavior and institutional behavioral reactions are more complex than is currently believed.

Real-Time Tragedies: A Simulated “Commons Learning Laboratory”
Kevin O’Neill

Abstract: “Commons-type” computer simulations are increasingly popular tools for helping students grasp the underlying trap of individual versus collective rational action in situations of joint ownership and finite resources. Historically, these simulations have been designed on mainframe or mini computers with site limited capacity for either visual or auditory feedback. This paper presents a preliminary commons-type game designed for use with the emerging local extended-area MacIntosh based networks. This paper also tests whether providing diagrammatic and verbal descriptions of the inherent resource and behavioral feedbacks enables players to avoid the fundamental commons trap: Short-term individually rational actions which result in collectively irrational consequences.

Pansystems Theory and Automatic Causality Reasoning in System Dynamics
Zhang Qinling, Zhang Baoping

Abstract: Researchers for complex systems become more and more important in modern science. System dynamics has done its significant work for the integration of System Theory and Computer Science in this field. Each dynamic system forms a complex causality network. Now we can use the panweighted network in Pansystems Theory for the dynamic system modeling, and further perform the automatic reasoning on this model. This new ideal may be developed into a deep seated issue in AI. In this article, the method of both modeling and automatic reasoning on a panweighted network  in dynamic systems will be introducted together with a simple and typical example in System dynamics. The further extention of this new method will be discussed in other articles.

Risk Management in Complex Projects
Henry Birdseye Weil, William J. Dalton

Abstract: This paper describes the use of System Dynamics models to manage the very substantial risks associated with complex design, development and production projects. The authors present a systematic approach to controlling the risks associated with a project’s cost, schedule and technical performance.

The steps in the this process include:(a) simulation of an appropriate “ancestor” project to illuminate sources of performance uncertainties and variances;(b) establishment of a baseline projection for the project of current interest;(c) simulation analyses to identify the sensitivity of the project’s performance to various contingencies( e.g. design changes, resource shortages, changes in government regulations, various technical problems, problems with subcontractors, delays in other interdependent projects); (d) analysis of various “hedging” and “insurance “ strategies for reducing the project’s vulnerability and (e) planning responses to contingencies for which risk avoidance strategies are not practical.

A hypothetical case is used to illustrate the approach. It includes simulation analyses that highlight the interconnectedness of various types of risks and the tradeoffs among: (a) project performance objectives;(b) project management policies; and (c) project risks.

1991 Proceedings – Bangkok, Thailand

The 9th International Conference

of the System Dynamics Society

1991 – Bangkok, Thailand

The following papers were presented at the conference in parallel and plenary sessions. The original printed proceedings, edited by Khalid Saeed, David Andersen and Jose Muchuca were printed in hardcopy and distributed at the conference.

Below please find the Paper Index for these proceedings.

  PAPER INDEX – listed alphabetically by first author:

Ali, K. Shoukath with Ramaswamy N   Setting Inventory Levels for a Centrally Located Blood Bank of a Metropolis – A Simulation Approach
Amsyari, Fuad et al   Dynamic Modeling for Development of Java Island Ecosystem (An Approach to Development of Archipelagic Nations)
Aresgianto, Widjajono Partowidagdo   Policy Analysis of Petroleum Industry in Indonesia
Arsegianto, Ram M. Shrestha   Development of Petrochemical industry in Indonesia: A Policy Experimentation
Bin, Xie Hong with Li Zhou Wei   Study on S. D. Model on the Capacity of City Population
Bora, M.C.   Performance of Indian Tea Industry over the Last Decade — Actual and Predicted
Bowen, Michael G. with Michael J. Radzicki    A Return to the Dynamics of Escalation and Withdrawal Behavior
Butler, John E.    The Generation and Diffusion of Managerial Innovations: A System Dynamics Model
Byrne, Matthew with Andrew Davis    STELLA Modelling Process for Manpower Strategy
Câmara, Antonio S.    Formulation of System Dynamics Models
Cecchini, Arnaldo with Alberto Recla   Un Gala di Venezia: A Gaming Simulation on the “Expectations” of the Venetian Inhabitants
Chan, Nguyen   Support Method for Optimal Control of Linear Dynamical System
Chang, Chui-Lung with Stephen Ogunlana and Khalid Saeed    Construction Project Management: A System Dynamics Approach
Chao, Zhang with Lui Chong-Ming    System Dynamics Model of an Urban Water Resources Use and IT’s Application
Chatsirisakul, Prasong with Khalid Saeed    Dynamics of Implementation of Quality Control, Circles: The Case of a Steel Plant.
Chiang, Rueih-Shiarng with Shaw-Er Wang Chiang    A System Dynamics Approach To Analyze The Relationship Between Transportation and Regional Development In Taiwan
Corben, D. A. with E.F.Wolstenholme   STELLA, STELLA Stack and Hypermedia in Information System Design and Assessment
Dangerfield, Brian   The Proper Role for System Dynamics Models in the Process of Policy Making in Business and Government.
De Tombe, Dorien J.   Using the System Dynamics method for defining the AIDS problem
Drew, Donald R.    Transportation Impact Methodology for Measuring Users and Non-Users Benefits
Duncan, Richard C.    The Life-Expectancy of Industrial Civilization
Dyner, Issac with Diana Muñoz and Alba M. Quintero    Complexities in Periurban Dynamics
Ergin, Aysen with Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner    Computer Simulation Model for Optimum Seaport Planning
Fang, Fu-Kang with Li Ke-Qiang    Approach on Educational Economics by Using the Non-equilibrium System Theory
Frechette,Henry with Frank Spital   A Model of Organizational Change
Govindarajan, M. with N. Ramaswamy    Diffusion Analysis in Marketing
Guo, Qincai    Macroeconomic Multifunction Equilibrium Growth Model of Wuhan
Güven, Sibel   A General Equilibrium Analysis of Income Distribution and Development Policy
Hao-Jun, Liu with Li Xiao-Hua, Cao Pei-Dong and Yuan Qi    Development of Large Enterprise Finance Dynamics Model with the Workbench
Huusko, Antti with Boris Segerståhl    A Heuristic Resource Allocation Algorithm for System with Uncertainty in Request Timing; a Backtracking Strategy
Han, Jiuqiang with Sun Guoji and Wu Biao    System Dynamics Simulation Language — DYNAMOC
Jia, Ren’ang   Graph Theory Analitics of SD Flow Diagram
Kameyama, Saburo with Takahiro Kojima, Akira Uchino and Kinya Machida    The Feedback Characteristics of Accounting Dynamics
Koul, Saroj with Prem Vrat A System Dynamics Based Model for Evaluating the Performance of an Engineering Firm
Larsen, Erik Reimer with John D.W. Morecroft and John Murphy   Helping Management Teams to Model: A Project in the Consumer Electronics Industry
Lei, Mingkai   How to Increase Activity of Factory
Li, Zhoug-lian with Li Jingshan    Forecasts of National Finance Income and Amount of Currency Circulation of China
Liguo, Cheng with Zhang Youmin, Yuan Zhengru and Yu Youshan    Urban Underground Space Development and Civil Defence Construction —– a Special Problem’s S.D. Model
Lu,Yue with Xinhua Fu    Economical Quality Analysis for Industrial Enterprises
Lu, Jiang with Di Zengru    The Quantitative Analysis of Spatial Distribution of Population
Macedo, Julio with Rafael Ruiz Usano    Designing Prototypes of JIT Systems Using System Dynamics Principles
Machuca, José A.D. When Creating and Using Games, Are We Neglecting the Essential of System Dynamics?
Markarian, Mihran with Roman Koziol   System Dynamics: Taming Expert Systems in the Business World
Mashayekhi, Ali Naghi    Dynamics of Development Cost Structure
Milling, Peter M.    Learning and Understanding Innovation Dynamics: A Gaming Approach
Mora, J.C.   Simple Quantum Chaotic Model for Fluctuating Dissipative Systems
Morita, Michiya with Nobuhide Tanaka    A Quantitative Analysis of Information Generation Properties of Structurally Different Networks
Munitic, Ante    System Dynamics Computer Simulation Model of Croatia
Narayana, M.V.S.L. with Sushil    DYSBASE: DYnamic Simulation with DataBASE (A Software for System Dynamics Modelling)
Nielsen, Anne Bjerring with Heidi C.K. Stranddorf and Erik Mosekilde    Complex Dynamics Hyperchaos and Coupling in a Microbiological Model
Parayno, Phares P. with Khalid Saeed    The Dynamics of Indebtedness in the Developing Countries: The Case of the Philippines
Paul, H.    An Alternative Method for Policy Synthesis of a Production-Inventory System via Model Control
Pei, Weimin, Li Yangsheng   A System Dynamics Model for Economic Development of Old Industrial Cities
Popov, Yu. S.    Macrosystem Approach for Modelling of Regional Dynamics
Pujantiyo, Bambang Slamet with Yoshio Hanzawa and Atsushi Fukuda    The Impact of Transportation Projects on Jabotabek, Indonesia
Qi, Yuan    A Simulation Software Development Workbench to Dynamics System
Radzicki, Michael J.    Dynamic Process, Tempestuous Relationship, and System Dynamics
Rego, Juan C.    Growing with Debt: Strategies for Argentina
Roberts, Carole with Brian Dangerfield   System Dynamics and Statistics: Recovering the Aids Incubation Time Distribution from Right-Censored Data
Ryzhernkov, Alexander V.    Industrial Performance and a Market Structure ( A Review of a Gaming Experiment)
Sabegh, Jalal Sajedi with Sushil K. Sharma    A System Dynamics Model of a Public Sector in India
Saeed, Khalid    Towards a Functional Form of Capitalism
Sharif, Nawaz with K. Ramanathan    Measured Contribution of Technology for Policy Analysis
Shimada, Toshiro    System Dynamics Teaching at a Japanese University
Siddiqi, Toufiq A. with Phares Parayno and Hartmut Bossel    Applying Systems Dynamics to Climate Change Issues
Singhasaneh, Pitan with John E. Lukens, Apisit Eiumnoh and Harvey Demaine    Integration of Raster-Based GIS and System Dynamics and Its Application
Suksawang, Orasa   A System Dynamics Approach to Teaching of Settlement Geography
Tao, Bai   Design and Application of Emulation Model in Big City’s Economic Structure
Terlou, Ben with Etzel van Kuijk and Jac A.M. Vennix    A System Dynamics Model of the Efficiency of Primary Education in Latin America
Thirumurthy, A. M.   Urban Dynamics of a Developing Country
Tousséa-Oulaï,Alphonse    Supply and Demand of Computer Personnel in Africa Developing Countries— A System Dynamics Model —
Toyoda, Yoshiaki with Shizuo Mawatari    Mathematical Formulations of System Principles in System Dynamics
Usano, Rafael Ruiz with Adolfo Crespo Marquez   Computing the Optimal Production Rates in a Complex Production System
Vallipuram, Yamuna    Long Term Transmission of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic:A System Dynamics Approach
Vij, Anil K. with Prem Vrat and Sushil    Modelling Diffusion of Energy Technologies: A System Dynamics Approach
Wang, Hong-bin    An Application of System Dynamics Approach to the Development Goals and Policies of the Animal Husbandry
Wang, Qifan with Xu Bo    Analyzing the Mechanism of Joint-Venture and Township Enterprises in China
Wang, Qifan with Xinhua Fu and Yin Jin    Enforcing Research and Development: — The Important Way to Get Rid of the Current Predicaments for Chinese Enterpises
Wang, Yixiang    A Simulation Model of System Dynamics for Evaluating Dynamic Changes of Priority Sectors in Country Industry
Wei, Li Zhou with Zhou Yong    Study on the Model for Regional Programming
Xu, Qingrui with Jin Chen, Zhiping Wang and Zhengcheng Lee
   System Modelling on Analysis of Resource Allocation of Technological Innovation
Yamamura, Etsuo with A. M. Thirumurthy    Urban Systems Model with Refernce to Essential Environmental Facilities of Developing Country
Young, Showing H. with Kun -Tung Yu and Sy-Feng Wang   A Design of the Public Housing Policies through the Dynamics Analysis of the Intra-Urban Migration Structure
Zhen, Fang   Rural Energy Development of Strategic Research in Beijing Area

Supplement

Bae, Kyuhan with Young-Myung Choi, Ku-Hyun Jung, Dalgon Lee and Kwang Seok Lee    Korea 2020: A Search for Balanced Future
Mohapatra, Pratap K.J. with Rahul Kumar Roy    System Dynamics Models for Markov Processes
Ooshika, Yuzuru with Nobuyuki Shimizu and Junko Ooshika Change of Japanese Dietary Life
Shiizuka, Hisao    BYNAMO: System Dynamics Simulator for Beginners and Educational Use
Shoushen, Xie with Xu Demin and Yang Bingzheng    Improvement of Badr’s Algorithm of Robust Control System
Vizayakumar, K. with Pratap K. J. Mohapatra    ENSIGAME: A Simulation Game for Environmental Policy Making

Yasuda, Yasoi   Simulation for a Deadly Blow to Tokyo by the Coming Next Large Earthquake
Jessen, Svein Arne    The Motivation of Project Managers. A Study of Variations in Project Managers’ Motivation and Demotivation by Triangulation of Methods.

CONFERENCE ABSTRACTS

Setting Inventory Levels for a Centrally Located Blood Bank of a Metropolis – A Simulation Approach
K. Shoukath Ali, Ramaswamy N

Abstract: Blood is a scarce and non-synthesizable resource which would perish eventually when kept under artificial storage.  The major problem encountered in blood bank administration is that of making decision on policies for setting up inventory levels to meet the needs as soon as they arise and simultaneously keep the expiry of blood on the shelf within reasonable limits. The selection of such policies is greatly influenced by demand, daily transfusion, shortages, outdating and shortage-outdate rates.
A true mathematical inventory modelling is nearer to impossibility due to the complexity of interaction between these variables and the stochastic nature of the processes involved.
Early works have shown that there exists a universal relationship between these variables that holds for all blood types. Statistical methods will yield the inventory levels to be set up on the basis of these variables.  But this warrants cumbersome analysis of extensive data collected over a minimum period of 12 months.  The volume of work involved makes this method unwieldy. Simulation tending towards a systems approach appears to be more effective and efficient in the analysis of such inventory situations.  The objective of this study is to investigate and analyse with the use of computer simulation, the relationship  between inventory levels , mean demand and shortage-outdate rates  for all Rh system blood types in at centrally located blood bank of a metropolis like Bombay. Environmental study of present day management of independant blood banks has also been performed.

Dynamic Modeling for Development of Java Island Ecosystem (An Approach to Development of Archipelagic Nations)
Fuad Amsyari et al

Abstract: As an archipelagic nation, Indonesia consist of thousands of island ecosystems. The development of the nation is supposed to consider such a specific existing ecological condition of the country. Therefore, as an alternative effort to promulgate a strategy for sustainable development of the nation, a study of Java as a complex island ecosystem has been conducted using dynamic modelling approach. The objective of the study is to delineate and assess the prospects of various dominate development variables of the island based on complex but measurable interactions among the components of the ecosystem to determine the most effective development strategy for the area.
A dynamic model for Java Island Ecosystem has been set up based on 14 level variables in the model that represent five components of the island ecosystem, i.e. population variable for population component, food, houses, and fuel variables for population basic need component; industry-capital agriculture-capital, and business-capital variables for economic component;  schools and criminals variables for social component; forest arable-land, agricultural-land, city, and pollutants variables for ecological component. Each level has either has two or four rate variables is then interrelated by 72 multiplier variables that sum up to 30 rate variables. In addition, these variable is then interrelated by 72 multiplier variables. A computer program has been developed using a complied basic language to exercise simulation process. The result of study indicated that the best strategy for development of Java Island Ecosystem should be focused to the intensive program on modern agriculture rather than the industrial establishment of the area. (The computer simulation program will also be demonstrated to the conference ). 

Note: This study is conducted by an inter-disciplinary team that consist of ecologist, economist , engineer, statistician, computer programmer, etc., and funded by Ministry of Population and Environment, from 1986-1989.  The list of the team is on the annex.

Policy Analysis of Petroleum Industry in Indonesia
Aresgianto, Widjajono Partowidagdo

Abstract: The role of oil has been traditionally dominating the economic development in Indonesia sine the country launched its first national development program in 1969. Now with the increasing domestic oil demand and the dwindling oil reserve in the country, the future prospect of oil supply is quite alarming. Natural gas which emerges to take part of oil role has not gained substantial market in the domestic market, although export shows a promising figures. This paper is endeavored to analyze the policies in oil and gas sector to help decision maker formulate his policy to get the most achievement of his objectives.

Development of Petrochemical industry in Indonesia: A Policy Experimentation
Arsegianto, Ram M. Shrestha

Abstract: This paper analyses the roles of key policy measures for the development of petrochemical industry in Indonesia based on indigenous oil and gas resources. Policy experimentation for the petrochemical industry development is carried out through a simulation model of the industry. The results show that a combination of policy instruments is needed for achieving the various objectives and that the performances of policies can vary widely between the short-run and the short long-run.

Study on S. D. Model on the Capacity of City Population
Xie Hong Bin, Li Zhou Wei

Abstract: The rising population and the expanding pace of the cities lead to the environmental deterioration. The serious environmental problem has increasingly brought attention to people. This paper provides an effective model for studying and the solving this problem.

Performance of Indian Tea Industry over the Last Decade — Actual and Predicted
M.C. Bora

Abstract: A system Dynamics (SD) model was developed in the beginning of the eighties to study and analyse the system behaviour and also the suggest policies for future growth of the Indian Tea Industry. The findings from a Delphi study were used in constructing the SD model and in formulating policies for the desired future growth industry.  This paper makes an attempt to compare the actual growth industry. This paper makes an attempt to compare the actual growth pattern of the Indian Tea Industry vis-a-vis the growth of other relevant factors with the predictions made by the Delphii panelists and those generated by the SD model. The reasons for variations in the growth patterns have also been explored. 

 A Return to the Dynamics of Escalation and Withdrawal Behavior
Michael G. Bowen, Michael J. Radzicki

Abstract: This paper reports the results of additional work on a model of escalation behavior since presentation of an early version of the model at the 1988 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society (Radzicki, Bowen, Kuller, and Guerrero, 1988). Here we propose that four variables: (1) the expected total benefits which will accrue if a project is completed; (2) the expected total costs which will be incurred if a project is completed; (3) the expected total benefits which will accrue only if a project is stopped; and, (4) the expected total costs which will be incurred only if a project is stopped; may be crucial to recommitment decisions in terms of a decision maker’s perception of their interrelationships at any point in the evolution of a course of action

The Generation and Diffusion of Managerial Innovations: A System Dynamics Model
John E. Butler

Abstract: This paper presents a model that attempts to examine what happens when an innovation takes a less tangible form, such as a managerial method. Because it is more difficult to track the adoption or measure the benefits of such innovations, organizations often fail to use valuable knowledge when attempting to solve difficult problems. Existing research suggests that intangible managerial innovations are more likely to be adopted if a group of adherents develops to support and foster innovation. This research investigates the role that these groups, often called “invisible colleges” play in this transfer of knowledge.  A preliminary system-type model, based on the existing literature is presented and discussed.

STELLA Modelling Process for Manpower Strategy
Matthew Byrne, Andrew Davis

Abstract: This paper describes a process used by Shell Business Consultancy to model manpower in an IT department. The IT world has been undergoing rapid changes in the last decade due to a highly mobile job market, skill shortages and the widespread use of contractors. Given these problems, it is important that management understand the implications of personnel policies. Shell Business Consultants built a STELLA model with the managers involved to focus their attention on the key issues and to enable them to actively explore policy options. The paper focuses on the process used in this project and combines it with our other experience to draw some generally applicable lessons that should be of use to all practitioners. 

Formulation of System Dynamics Models
Antonio S. Câmara

Abstract: System dynamics models are usually formulated from verbal descriptions of problems. To define such models, one maps the verbal description into a set of equations. This mapping process remains much of an art despite the use of causal diagrams, to extract from the verbal descriptions the variables (nouns or noun combinations) and the direction, degree of independence and polarity of the relationships to be included in the simulation model. This paper presents an attempt to formalize the translation of verbal descriptions into causal diagrams. The proposed methodology is based on the decomposition of the text into a sequence of inferences. All the nouns and adjective-noun combinations in each inference are then identified and inserted into an adjacency matrix to facilitate the selection of the relevant variables and polarized relationships by the modeler. Implementation of this method on a computer is discussed. A preliminary solution is presented. The description a simple environmental impact problem is mapped into a causal diagram using the proposed approach for illustrative purposes.

Un Gala di Venezia: A Gaming Simulation on the “Expectations” of the Venetian Inhabitants
Arnaldo Cecchini, Alberto Recla

Abstract: This game falls into the category of analysis and participation techniques. As is well known, gaming simulations are one of the tools available to analyse and investigate systems behaviours, mainly socio-economic ones.

Support Method for Optimal Control of Linear Dynamical System
Nguyen Chan

Abstract: In this paper we construct a method for solving the problem of optimizing the maximal deviation of the real plan (or the trajectory, the technological process  . . . ) from some ideal one. The mathematical model of the dynamical system being considered is a system of linear differential equations with a control function. The method is based on some ideas of the so-called support method proposed by R. Gabasov and F.M. Kirillova.
After introducing support controls and establishing their relation with controllability of the system, we derive a criterion (which can be easily verified) for a support control to be optimal. Then we briefly describe an iteration for improving the existing control if it has not been optimal yet. Finally we present an illustrative example.

Construction Project Management: A System Dynamics Approach
Chang, Chui-Lung, Stephen Ogunlana, Khalid Saeed.

Abstract: This study reviews the R&D Project Model developed by Richardson and Pugh III (1981) with a view to apply it to construction project management. Analysis of the model behaviors is done taking into consideration the three prime objectives of project management: meeting specified performance, within cost; and on construction project management is made. Experimentation with the revised model attempts to identify appropriate policies regarding how to improve construction project management.

System Dynamics Model of an Urban Water Resources Use and IT’s Application
Zhang Chao, Lui Chong-Ming

Abstract: A new urban water resources use and forecasting model constructed by comprehensive considering the balance between the supply and demand of the water resources system to an industry city and the feedback relationship of the water resources control policy, and by applying DYNAMO language is presented in this paper. It can give more rational data of urban water resources simulation and planning than that given by the growth rate trend forecasting method.

Dynamics of Implementation of Quality Control, Circles: The Case of a Steel Plant.
Prasong Chatsirisakul, Khalid Saeed

Abstract: This paper uses a system framework to understand the performance of Quality Control Circles (Q.C.C.). A system dynamics model is constructed integrating the Q.C.C. with the production process; the previous studies have examined each system separately. The study partly based on previous studies and the data from the real case of Thailand Steel Plant. It incorporates some of the important factors interfacing each sector into a complete model. Interpretation of the model builds in a cumulative fashion, from computer simulation and testing of individual sectors, an understanding of the performance of Q.C.C. Sensitivity analysis and policy analysis of Q.C.C. is included in the experimental design. Those the sensitive and insensitive policies of Q.C.C. are studied. However, the model on basis for simulating the impact of various strategic policy decisions on the company preference. The model also guides the management in designing policies related to the implementation of Q.C.C. are also identified. It is expected that the model of this study will provide the understanding of the interaction between the Q.C.C. and the production process.

A System Dynamics Approach To Analyze The Relationship Between Transportation and Regional Development In Taiwan
Rueih-Shiarng Chiang, Shaw-Er Wang Chiang

Abstract: Disparities, both sectoral and regional, always exist during the process of national economic development.  The disparities between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of Taiwan have steadily increased due to the rapid industrial and economic growth encourage by the government. Awareness of the effect from the physical development on regional disparity has risen since the enforcement of the Six-Year Economic Development Plan in 1976. In the Taiwan Area, four regional plans have been drafted and successively enforced in order to decreased such regional disparities.
The purpose of this paper is: (1) to study the regional disparities in Taiwan based on average per capita income and employment opportunity as indicators on four regional planning regions; (2) to develop a system dynamics model to portray the relationship between transportation and regional development disparities in Taiwan; and (3) to provide a future direction for regional policy based on conclusions drawn from the result of (1) and (2)
.

STELLA, STELLA Stack and Hypermedia in Information System Design and Assessment
D. A. Corben, E.F.Wolstenholme

Abstract:This paper describes the contribution of recent Apple Macintosh and system Dynamics software to improving the interaction between analyst and user in the development and the use of strategic models for assessing and designing large scale computer information systems (CIS).

Using the System Dynamics Methods for Defining the AIDS Problem
Dorien J. De Tombe

Abstract: Defining new complex societal domain exceeded problems in fast changing situations is not an easy task. Problems like the exponential growth of the metropolitans and AIDS are very hard to define. Relevant data and knowledge is often missing.
There is a large amount of uncertainty and blind spots concerning the different aspects of the problem. Yet these problems require guiding. Before one is able to guide a problem, the problem has to be identified. The way problems are guided depends on the definition of the problem. Managers and experts often mis the knowledge and experience on how to define these kinds of problems. Traditional education didn’t give much off a opportunity to learn defining these kind of problems.
Defining complex domain exceeded problems is teamwork.
Experts of different domains must work together to define the problem. This can cause a lot of communication problems concerning the context boundness of each others knowledge.
System dynamic modelling can be a tool in defining these kinds of problems. System dynamic modelling can be a guide for structuring the different mental models of the participants. It can serve as a mutual language for communication. Managers and experts can be trained defining complex domain exceeded problems in using system dynamic modelling tools in a special learning environment with real cases imbedded in a free-form game.
This paper will report also on some try-outs with system dynamic modeling for defining the AIDS problem by social science students of the University of Utrecht.

Transportation Impact Methodology for Measuring Users and Non-Users Benefits
Donald R. Drew

Abstract: A methodology for linking transport, user benefits, and succeeding economic development, so as to provide a basis for rational policy formation, is presented. The approach consists of developing relationships between variables in casual streams from policy parameters to measures of effectiveness and expressing them in the form of a generic model. The generic model is solved analytically and subjected to policy analysis.

The Life-Expectancy of Industrial Civilization
Richard C. Duncan

Abstract: The life-expectancy of industrial civilization is defined. A feedback model of the human life-support system is used to study system controllability at the global level. The inadequacies of control, calculations based on energy-use data, and other considerations are used to theorize that the life-expectancy of industrial civilization is less than 100 years.

Complexities in Periurban Dynamics
Issac Dyner, Diana Muñoz, and Alba M. Quintero

Abstract:Suburbs or areas in the periphery of the cities are troublesome to plan when urban growth takes place at fast rate. System Dynamics approach has been shown to be suitable to study Periurban Dynamics in spite all of all externalities in the system. Immigration, commerce and industry being some of the most important exogenous variables.
Early experiments for small dormitory periurban region prove the techniques to be appropriate, but when commerce and industry dispute themselves, along with housing, for a share of land, the problem becomes complex and interesting.
A simulation was carried out for the periurban commune of El Poblado, with a population of over 48000 inhabitants, in Medellin, Colombia. Good approximation was observed between historical data and model behavior. Few scenarios were explored in order to examine land-use policies.

Computer Simulation Model for Optimum Seaport Planning
Aysen Ergin, Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner

Abstract: The optimum port size (which has the minimum total cost) can be determined by computer simulation model. The softwares HARSOL and HARCON which are developed in METU, civil Engineering Department, Coastal and Harbor Engineering Research Center, determine the port size which gives the minimum total port cost by processing the phenomena such as random arrivals and sizes of the ships, queue discipline and service for loafing/unloading which fits to a statistical distribution. HARSOL runs for the general cargo terminal and HARCON runs for container terminal. The optimization models are performed for a case study. The sensitivity of the model is investigated concerning the random number generation.

Approach on Educational Economics by Using the Non-Equilibrium System Theory
Fang Fu-Kang, Li Ke-Qiang

Abstract: Under the framework of non-equilibrium theory, a model is adopted to analyse the educational economic system of China. By dividing the education levels into four parts, the high education, the basic education, the secondary education and the vocational -technical education, we study the relation between educational systems and economics. The development of chinese education and its economical benefits have been calculated and discussed.

A Model of Organizational Change
Henry Frechette, Frank Spital

Abstract: This paper reports on the initial results of a research effort to improve the long run effectiveness of organizational changes. The literature suggests that organizations frequently experience periods of stability that are punctuated by bursts of large scale change. Our objective is to understand what causes this pattern and what policies are likely to improve organizational performance through the change process. In this paper we present a causal loop diagram of the structure or our model, and discuss the reasons for this structure. This model does reproduce the behavior of patterns to which the literature refers. In addition, we report the results of some sensitivity analyses and policy tests of the model. These results have implications for managers. Finally, we discuss the limitations of our model in its current form, and the next steps that we intend to take.

Diffusion Analysis in Marketing
M. Govindarajan and N. Ramaswamy

Abstract: The system dynamics technique has been adapted to reflect the dynamics of the diffusion process from both behavioural and marketing strategy perspectives. The diffusion theory has helped in conceptualising and explaining the information process and in evaluating the various market interventions in the spread of new product innovations. The diffusion and adoption process has been studied with particular reference to the personal computer in India.

A General Equilibrium Analysis of Income Distribution and Development Policy
Sibel Güven

Abstract: This paper presents an empirical analysis of the interaction between growth and income distribution for the Turkish economy over the period 1973-1979. The analysis is based on at multi-period, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model constructed for the Turkish economy, that permit’s the evaluation of distributional as well as growth consequences of alternative policies. Along with empirical testing of the model, three sets of experiments are conducted with the model. Counter factual trade policy experiments, alternative wage policy experiments and simulations investigating the distributional and growth consequences of alternative potential redistributive policies indicate that the size distribution of income is stable and very difficult to change with the policy interventions considered. Agricultural terms of trade is one of the most important determinants of reducing overall poverty, and policy instruments conducive to higher growth is not necessarily in conflict with the policies aiming at more even distribution of income.

Development of Large Enterprise Finance Dynamics Model with the Workbench
Liu Hao-Jun, Li Xiao-Hua, Cao Pei-Dong, Yuan Qi

Abstract: Taking the financial system of large industrial enterprises as the example, this paper makes a detail introduction of the method, steps and crucial points of programming financial dynamics model with the simulation software development workbench. The financial dynamics of the large enterprise consists of submodel of cost, submodel of fixed assets, submodel of fund, submodel of tax and submodel of price.

An Application of System Dynamics Approach to the Development Goals and Policies of the Animal Husbandry
Wang Hong-bin

Abstract: In this research, the system dynamics for analysing the development goals and polices of the animal husbandry in Heilongjiang province is constructed by means of the theory and approach of system dynamics. In this model, the major relations of mutual effects and interactions existing in the processes of natural and economic reproduction of animal husbandry are described emphatically.

A Heuristic Resource Allocation Algorithm for System with Uncertainty in Request Timing; a Backtracking Strategy
Antti Huusko, Boris Segerståhl

Abstract: This report describes on object-oriented approach to model representation. An object’s behaviour is defined by sets of rules. The system provides control of the model’s dynamic behaviour by providing simulation monitoring facilities. The main performance assessment is based on a heuristic analysis of simulation data which creates a specification of refinements to the model in order to better satisfy the predefined goals.  The simulation life cycle is managed by means of a goal-directed rule system which examines the performance of a scenario. Based on the performance assessment, resources are reallocated by means of a backtracking strategy where the key features are the use of heuristic and domain-dependant search algorithms, and the concept of parallelism is used in the structuring of the optimal strategy.

System Dynamics Simulation Language — DYNAMOC
Han Jiuqiang, Sun Guoji, Wu Biao

Abstract: This paper introduces a system dynamics simulation language – – – DYNAMOC developed by authers. In the paper, we first focus on discussing the program structure, software functions and features. Secondly, a simulation example is provided to illustrate our DYNAMOC.

A System Dynamics Based Model for Evaluating the Performance of an Engineering Firm
Saroj Koul, Prem Vrat

Abstract: This paper examines four policy options for evaluating the overall performance of a Public sector engineering firm in India. The major areas viz.  finance, production, human resources and research & development are taken up for the study. The System Dynamics methodology was chosen as the tool for conducting the analysis because it provides means for understanding the dynamic inter-relationships between key functional parameters thereby allowing to explore the impact of different policies.

Helping Management Teams to Model: A Project in the Consumer Electronics Industry
Erik Reimer Larsen, John D.W. Morecroft, John Murphy

Abstract: We have been using system dynamics with the management team of a consumer electronics company to investigate problems in training, inventory control and debt handling. In this paper we describes how the modelling approach was introduced to the company and subsequently used to support management team decision making. A small model of a direct mail campaign shows how the modelling process improved team understanding and inventory and demand dynamics. Building on experience from the project we comment on conditions for model building (training, team make-up, facilitation, model size, role of the computer) that encourage the active participation of management teams.

How to Increase Activity of Factory
Mingkai Lei

Abstract: Since society developing and technology progressing, product’s life period is going to short. Meanwhile market competition is getting more intense. Factory has to develop new products required by martket rapidly so that factory can get developing. This paper applies system dynamics model to simulate a process of new products developed in a factory, finds problems, put forward scheme of solving problems. The factory has carried out this scheme, the period of new products developed has been shorted 50 per cent.  Some new products have occupied market rapidly.

Urban Underground Space Development and Civil Defence Construction —– a Special Problem’s S.D. Model
Cheng Liguo, Zhang Youmin, Yuan Zhengru, Yu Youshan

Abstract: Owing to development of the cubic construction of modern cities and the protective functions of underground space against the disasters such as earthquake and air raids by modern weapons, the development of urban underground space and the construction of protective sheltering against disasters have become an important policy for many cities. Nevertheless, contradictions between investment and benefit as well as between protection and economy will often occur as a result of the very expensive cost of underground space development. As managers of system, they tend to need to understand these problems and adopt effective measures to find out solutions for them. The method of System Dynamics is no doubt a useful tool for the studies of such problems.
This paper has established a system dynamic model about urban underground space development and civil defence construction, including development fund raising, fund distribution, urban underground space construction, subways (i.e., underground railway) construction, urban population and the other auxiliary business dealings performed by the development departments. The model has successfully solved the problem of offering methods for the efficiency of protecting against disasters, the social and economic benefits of urban underground space development and civil defence construction. It reveals the feedback and circulation mechanism and tendency of urban underground space development and civil defence construction.

Economical Quality Analysis for Industrial Enterprises
Yue Lu, Xinhua Fu

Abstract: In modern era, many system theories and methods have been applied in the industrial enterprise.  It is obvious that the quality problems, as one aspect of system, is the one deserving much more important considerations.
There are many reasons for studying the quality problem as a system. For example, the enterprises pursued benefits by the way of high quality, although over- done quality is not the best. We should consider it as a system problem. There are many modern management theories such as IE (Industrial Engineering), QC (Quality Control), OR (Operation Research), ZD (zero – defect), PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique). If these theories and methods can be applied under the thoughts of Economical Quality System Analysis, it will show the great potentiality.
This paper applying the SD theory and method, declares the concept of EQS, attempting to achieve three goals;
1. To analyze the relationship among the Quality– Cost — Profit, and seek the best combination of these two factors: Quality and Benefits.
2. To discuss, the appropriate quality level, the combina-tion of Quality and benefit in the process of product design, manufacturing, and sales.
3. To study the internal feedback structure, and the model of quality and benefit of industrial enterprises.

The Quantitative Analysis of Spatial Distribution of Population
Jiang Lu, Di Zengru

Abstract: According to the theory of dissipative structure and the features of the evolution of population in China, the evolutionary equations for the population of cities and towns in every province (except Taiwan and Hainan) of China are obtained. By these equations spatial distribution from 1980 to 1984 and future evolution are shown.  Some natures of population in China are discussed.

Designing Prototypes of JIT Systems Using System Dynamics Principles
Julio Macedo , Rafael Ruiz Usano

Abstract: American and European firms use just in time prototypes which are subsets of the japanese just in time system. Hence, these firms need tools to select those components of the japanese JIT system best suited to their particular characteristics and environments. This paper proposes one of such tools and illustrates its application on a case study. The proposed tool is a computer aided procedure that implements system dynamics principles using a continuous-discrete simulation language.

When Creating and Using Games, Are We Neglecting the Essential of System Dynamics?
José A.D. Machuca

Abstract: As it is well known, the explicit representation of systems structure (e.g.: causal diagrams) is one of the main features of System Dynamics. In my view, this precious tool is perhaps being neglected or, more precisely, not utilised to the full when building and using models and games. In this way, the structure of the systems is hidden and the transparency of the models is lost. This can be especially negative in games which not allow the players to access the structure. That can leads to a decision making not based on the causes but on the symptoms, as standard black box games do.

System Dynamics: Taming Expert Systems in the Business World
Mihran Markarian, Roman Koziol

Abstract: The paper reports on a new approach for the building of Decision Support Systems based on System Dynamics and Expert Systems. The power of this approach is illustrated by using it to identify problems that exist within the production processes of a manufacturing company. System Dynamics was used to simulate the production processes and build the expert system. The simulation identifies the process where the problem exists, and the Expert System suggests possible causes to the problem and the solutions required to bring production back to normal.
Stella was the System Dynamics tool used to gain a detailed understanding of the production processes and their interactions in order to build a simulation model. The influences from this simulation were used to structure the knowledge base of an expert system. While the expert system was an essential ingredient of the Decision Support System, the actual system that was used and its features were of secondary importance.
This paper will benefit System Dynamic practitioners who are interested in: 1) simulating a process within an organisation., 2) the application of System Dynamics to solve a manufacturing problem.,
3) the relationship between System Dynamics and building of Experts Systems., 4) the use of System Dynamics as a decision making/support tool in the manufacturing industry.

Dynamics of Development Cost Structure
Ali Naghi Mashayekhi

Abstract: A cost structure is presented for the development projects based on two kinds of cost: base cost and progress cost. The base cost is necessary to keep a project alive and ready for real progress. The progress cost is to make physical progress in the project. A dynamic model is made and simulated to show the behavior of this cost structure. The model shows that when development budget is not sufficient to pay for all the required expenses of an ongoing development projects, total cost of development projects would increase and completion time of the projects would rise. Insufficiency of development budget occurs either by decline of government revenues or by start of too many new projects. In the face of insufficient budget, it becomes very crucial to decrease the starting rates of new projects. By decreasing the number of starting projects, the behavior of the model in terms of completion time and unit cost of the projects improves considerably when budget insufficiency appears.

Learning and Understanding Innovation Dynamics: A Gaming Approach
Peter M. Milling

Abstract: Innovation management is a special task in several respects. Its success is essential for the survival of the firm. It deals with highly dynamic processes, and it requires a viable strategy from the very outset. Analyses of innovation dynamics have shown that market forces usually do not allow the search for a gradual approach towards a successful strategy. Frequently technology advances rapidly and the market changes so fast that no second try is possible.
In such a situation, the artificial reality of a management simulator provides a powerful environment to learn about the system under investigation. It allows deeper insights into the problem situation. In its virtual world, it alleviates the development of an improved understanding of the intrinsic aspects, and leads to a better feeling for possible reactions of the market.
The paper presents the coarse structure of an Innovation Management Simulator (IMS). The players represent four competing companies. At the beginning of the simulation, all offer a comparable product, no firm holds a competitive advantage. Among other policies, they can -through resource allocation for research and development – create additional, non substituting products. The product life cycles with their time patterns of profits and sales, market shares, etc. are endogenous variables, influenced by the players’ actions.
The decision to develop and launch a new product and the choice of the time for market entry are strategic variables of the players. Further decisions are required to budget product and process development, pricing and advertising, capacity allocation, personnel recruitment and financing. The game is played on a quarterly basis. The decisions are fed into a System Dynamics model, and the results provide the input for a new round of decision making.

Simple Quantum Chaotic Model for Fluctuating Dissipative Systems
J.C. Mora

Abstract: Energy dissipative systems are considered through a general approach. The one direction non-steady state equation for mass, heat and momentum transport shows that the energy used by system could be considered through “energy dissipation function”, comparable to the “wave function” used in Quantum Mechanics. A complex time scale is proposed. This permits to consider the fluctuations as being in a time scale which is different from our classical one. The non commutation of operators of the basic equation introduces quantification which supports the use of finite different equations instead of a differential equation. A discretized Chaotic Process is proposed as a model for actual systems. The example of a fluidized bed shows that quantum considerations through a ground dynamic state and an excited state could support the above proposal which is in agreement with the actual qualitative behaviour. The Chaotic Process can be put in agreement with the thermodynamics based principle when comparing the minimum energy dissipation of the actual system.

A Quantitative Analysis of Information Generation Properties of Structurally Different Networks
Michiya Morita, Nobuhide Tanaka

Abstract: This paper tries to examine information generation properties of the network structure usually shown by arrows and nodes by the dynamic simulation analysis. The information generation means the augmentation of information stock (we call “base”) of the network brought up by the network members. We introduce behavioral aspects into the analysis. In the past several researchers have approached to the task performances of the network structures by the experimentations involving actual persons. Our research puts emphasis on the information base on which tasks are accomplished. Therefore we will not touch the performances of achieving tasks explicitly. Our objectives are to examine how the structure of network has influences on the information base for accomplishment of tasks by its communication channels stipulated by the structure.

System Dynamics Computer Simulation Model of Croatia
Ante Munitic

Abstract: The proposed model is a scientific attempt to apply the methodology of System Dynamics to research one of the most complex organization system of management, with the aim of finding out the most suitable scenario of the management by economic migration flows. The problem of economic migration is one of the most important problems both for the countries of origin and for the receiving countries. Computer simulation of the proposed model confirms most of the results achieved by Andre Sapir, but pointing to the possibility of multilateral consultation of the managers of the regional system, as well as of the society to which it belongs, in this case: REPUBLICA of CROATIA, and the managers of the countries which absorb the economic migrations flows. The result of these multilateral consultantions would be very useful for the countries of origin, and for the countries that receive economic migrants as well!

DYSBASE: DYnamic Simulation with DataBASE (A Software for System Dynamics Modelling)
M.V.S.L. Narayana, Sushil

Abstract: System Dynamics is one the methodologies for behavioural research. Some of the important steps for the behavioural analysis under system dynamics framework are system conceptualization, model fabrication, model simulation and finally the policy analysis. Out of these steps model simulation usually involves massive computation and hence it may necessitate usage of the computers. When it is a question of the usage of computers there is a need of a language for computer oriented model preparation and simulation.  To cater to this need a software viz. DYSBASE (DYNAMIC SIMULATION WITH DATA BASE) has been developed. This paper chalks out an overview of DYSBASE. The language syntax and the operational procedure of DYBASE software is described in the DYSBASE manual available with the authors.

Complex Dynamics Hyperchaos and Coupling in a Microbiological Model
Anne Bjerring Nielsen, Heidi C.K. Stranddorf, Erik Mosekilde

Abstract: Interacting populations of bacteria and phages (i.e. vira) play an important role for many biotechnological applications. The homogeneous and well-controlled bacterial cultures used in modern cheese production, for instance, are often extremely sensitive to attacks by phages, and considerable efforts are invested in the search for more resistant cultures.
In order to examine different strategies in this search we have simulated a variety of growth, competition and selection processes that may arise in interacting populations of bacteria and phages. Our model considers a culture containing several variants of the same bacterium, each sensitive to a specific phage. The culture grows in a chemostat with a continuous supply of nutrients. Surplus bacteria and vira are removed through dilution.  Depending on the rate of dilution, the model exhibits periodic behavior, quasiperiodic behavior, deterministic chaos or hyperchaos.
To study phenomena related with incomplete mixing in the chemo state we have coupled behaviors associated with different compartments. In particular, we have investigated how the behavior changes when we introduce a diffusive coupling of a periodic attractor to a quasiperiodic and a hyperchaotic attracter, respectively.

The Dynamics of Indebtedness in the Developing Countries: The Case of the Philippines
Phares P. Parayno, Khalid Saeed

Abstract: The relationship between foreign capital inflows, the build-up of debt, and economic growth in a developing country are analyzed using a system dynamics model of the pertinent processes. The Philippines serves as an empirical case to apply the model. The model incorporates the macro-structure of economic growth, the micro-structure of market-clearing mechanisms, and an accounting of the money flows. The study shows that economic policies enhancing debt-servicing ability create better economic performance than those limiting loan giving. Increasing capital-intensity is the most important part of such policies. They are further facilitated by encouraging investment through decreasing taxes and enhancing demand through increasing government spending and promoting exports. Thus, augmentation of domestic resources by foreign capital inflows appears to be a viable economic strategy.

An Alternative Method for Policy Synthesis of a Production-Inventory System via Model Control
H. Paul

Abstract: The feedback control concept is central to both modern control theory and system dynamics. Several attempts have been made to utilise modern control theory in developing some formalised procedures for system dynamics models. Some studies on the application of control theory to a simple production-inventory system have been reported. These studies were able to discover some important policy decisions to improve the behaviour of the system. This paper presents an alternative procedure based on modal control theory for designing useful policies for the production-inventory system. The results obtained in this study are generally similar to those obtained in earlier studies reported in the literature. 

Macrosystem Approach for Modelling of Regional Dynamics
Yu. S.  Popov

Abstract: Formulation of the general scheme for developing dynamic models of macrosystems with selfreproduction and resources exchange, using the local equilibria principle, is proposed. Regional system, where reproduction and exchange processes have significantly different relaxation times, is considered. The model of regional system, where dynamic exchange processes are described as the evolution of local stationary states, is presented. Calculation, classification and bifurcation of equilibrium points of regional dynamics are studied. Results of computational experiments are given.

The Impact of Transportation Projects on Jabotabek, Indonesia
Bambang Slamet Pujantiyo, Yoshio Hanzawa, Atsushi Fukuda

Abstract: The lack of transportation facilities has been the slackening force to the economic development of most Southeast Asian countries in recent years. A lot of transportation projects has been purposed to alleviate this pressing problem. However, each project is being appraised individually without considering its economic importance with other proposed projects. Economic evaluation is considered on a short term basis neglecting the effects of the project to the whole transportation system on the long term. There is no coordination and systematic implementation to analyze whether a project is important or will be approved first considering the limited funds and resources available. On this research, a system dynamics model is proposed which can analyze the coordination of some projects in terms of economic evaluation.
The reliability of this model is tested in Jabotabek, Indonesia which is composed of one urban area and three surrounding areas. The transportation facilities that are considered in this study area are the port which serves as an import-export terminal for products and resources, the trunk roads which provide the link between the urban area and the suburban areas, and other urban transportation facilities located within the urban area.
Comparing the trend of the socio-economic growth and development of each expected scenarios is the defined areas, the result shows the importance of coordinating the implementation of transportation facilities.

A Simulation Software Development Workbench to Dynamics System
Yuan Qi

Abstract: In the paper, We discuss characteristic, structure and application of simulation software development workbench for dynamics systems on the computer — a new tool software. This workbench is mainly composed of four parts.  1) initial information management part, 2) three library structures, 3) model design tool, 4) running table.

Macroeconomic Multifunction Equilibrium Growth Model of Wuhan
Guo Qincai

Abstract: <<Macroeconomic Multifunction Equilibrium Growth Model of Wuhan>> and its application is the first development application, it also the continuation of theory research and method research. This application model consists of 8486 parameters and 2689 equations. The results can be gained just one time by microcomputer. The sample period of the model is from 1978 to 1989. The prediction period of the model is from 1990 to 1995. They are both an entirety (whole). Its calculation results are output simultaneously.
This application research report is written in 200 thousands of Chinese words and consists of four parts: 1. Macroeconomic multifunction equilibrium growth model of Wuhan; 2. The lab of macroeconomic system of Wuhan; 3. The prediction policy-making report of “the Eighth Five-year planning” of Wuhan; 4. 607 kinds of indexes output from the model.
Because the paper length is limited by conference, only first part is translated into English. It mainly introduces the theory characteristics and structure of this application model, and the examination of the model as well as the new function of system software. The frame graph, flow graph and mathematic equation of the model are also introduced in theory and method research. Thus many places in this report are not detailedly discussed and are cited in the reference (1).

Dynamic Process, Tempestuous Relationship, and System Dynamics
Michael J. Radzicki

Abstract: This paper describes two exercises that are useful in an introductory course in system dynamics. They are centered around two models of a couple engaged in a tempestuous relationship. Although the models are quite simple, the exercises can be used to introduce and practice a surprisingly large number of system dynamics skills.

Growing with Debt: Strategies for Argentina
Juan C. Rego

Abstract: Argentina’s economic growth is seriously threatened by the service of the external debt, when this is compared with Argentina’s payment capacity. The difficulties in the accomplishment of the mentioned payments has caused the decrease of the value of the Argentine debt’s bonds in the secondary markets. This has carried on to the formulation of repurchase strategies of the debt, proposed by Fernandez (1987) and Rodriguez (1988, 1990), which are examined here. For this purpose a simple growth model type Harrod-Domar is coupled to the debt, which grows in function of the unpaid service. Meanwhile, the market price of the debt is governed by a behaviour equation, formulated by Rodriguez ( 1990). A resulting System Dynamics model, which continues a previous work (Rego 1988), permits to simulate alternative scenarios for the economic growth and debt management.

Graph Theory Analitics of SD Flow Diagram
Jia Ren’ang

Abstract: The article advances and discusses a theory that using diagraph theory to analyse SD flow diagram. First, on the basis of the concept strongly connected digraph generation out-tree and extreme out-tree, we prove two existence generation out-tree theorem and three relative propositions of flow diagram generation out-tree. The method to define the extreme out-tree and feedback loop set are obtained in complicated SD flow diagrams, also the general laws are advanced that each variable produces corresponding increment that in the feedback loop and extreme out-tree and at the different simulation moment, one increment ∆x is given certain variable x. All these conclusions are useful to the debugging and the result-analysis of SD model and are also useful to analyse the effects of controll variable in system.

System Dynamics and Statistics: Recovering the Aids Incubation Time Distribution from Right-Censored Data
Carole Roberts, Brian Dangerfield

Abstract: The identification of the AIDS incubation time distribution, together with its parameters, is a vital component of any mathematical model designed to portray cases. A dataset on Transfusion-Associated AIDS cases in the USA is available and can be utilised in this identification process. However, the task of achieving a best fit using either parametric or non-parametric statistical methods is hampered because, in particular, the data are right-censored and this leads to an extremely complex maximum, likelihood estimation procedure. By employing an appropriate system dynamics software tool an optimising simulation approach to the fitting process is available as an alternative. This enables the resolution of a number of complications which hamper the maximum likelihood approach.

A System Dynamics Model of a Public Sector in India
Jalal Sajedi Sabegh, Sushil K. Sharma

Abstract: In this paper a system dynamics model of working of a public sector in India is presented and it behaviour has been analysed. The public sector in India are suffering from low productivity, overstaffing and excess capacity. The quality of managerial input, selection process and compensation offered and flexibility in decision making are some of the major causes of under performance. The state owned enterprises have often not to compete with private sectors and the growth in market share is not so emphasized.
Apart from this the motivational cycle of the employee working in public sector undertaking is not well pronounced. The socialistic norms of control, which substantially affects the security need over a need pattern of the employee, which is essentially the need pattern closely correlated with free enterprise systems. The situation of conflict arises in case of a state owned company working under a mixed economy systems as obtained in India. This causes low productivity.
The paper concludes that each unit should be treated as a separate autonomous body, with flexibility in decision making, better managerial talents have to be attracted. The level of competition should be well pronounced if at all productivity has to be improved. Productivity awareness has to come from the top political circle of the Government and productivity should be treated as national gain.

Towards a Functional Form of Capitalism
Khalid Saeed

Abstract: The performance of a capitalist system is explained using a system dynamics model of economic growth and income distribution which generates numerous patterns of behavior subsuming both capitalist and Marxist economic views. Extended experimentation with this model then serves as a basis to identify critical policy instruments that make best use if the system potential and avoid dysfunctional developments. Issues of income and wealth distribution and entrepreneurial performances are discussed.

Measured Contribution of Technology for Policy Analysis
Nawaz Sharif, K. Ramanathan

Abstract: Technology is nowadays considered as an important strategic variable for development. The growth of the developed economies is said to be due to productivity enhancement which is largely attributed to technological innovation. Thus the need emerges for a fuller understanding  of the contribution of technology. For improved decision making a new set of technological data will have to be made available and a reorientation of traditional thought will have to be fostered.In the economic production context, technology is simply a means for achieving transformation of available inputs (natural resources and semifinished goods) into desirable outputs (consumer, semifinished and capital goods). To gain a better insight into the role of technology in economic development, it is necessary to view technology as a comprising of four embodied forms (object-embodied physical facilities; person-embodied human abilities; record-embodied documented facts; and institution-embodied management techniques) which interact dynamically at any production system.
A framework for measuring the contribution of the four embodiment forms of technology in a production system is presented in this paper. The procedure requires an assessment of the status and interrelationships of the individual components of technology being utilized by a firm vis-a-vis the best practice elsewhere and then to determine the overall “technology contribution coefficient” (TCC) of the transformation operation. The paper suggests the use of the TCC measure for assessing the technological capability of a production system. A careful analysis of the interaction among the four components of technology in relation to the market and policy environment may lead to a better understanding of the technological behaviour of firm with significant policy implications. For such an analysis, the “system dynamics” approach is considered to be suitable because of its ability to deal with complex, interesting and dynamic behaviour of the variables.

System Dynamics Teaching at a Japanese University
Toshiro Shimada

Abstract: For about 20 years I have taught System Dynamics modelling at a seminar cource., faculty of commerce, Meiji University , Tokyo. About 6-10 sophomore students used to be divided into 2 groups and each groups and each chose an optimal company or an urban city, for which students tried to formulate a System Dynamics simulation model, and its results were seen every year in a magazine published in Japanese by the faculty of commerce, Meiji University . There were about 30 papers of students, for such companies as super-market, watch, drugs, newspaper, transportation, brewery, bank, gas, restaurant, tobacco, airline and so on, or for a suburban city near Tokyo.
Students gathered historical data, had interviews with objective cooperations, formulated models, for which they analysed feedback loops and simulation results. They did all by themselves. These systems thinking studies were of very much value for students.
I will explain a few examples from my student’s works and some other Japanese research case studies.

Applying Systems Dynamics to Climate Change Issues
Toufiq A. Siddiqi, Phares Parayno, Hartmut Bossel

Abstract: Global climate change has emerged as a major policy issue in industrialized as well as developing countries. The increasing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and CFCs are believed to be the primary cause of Man’s contribution to climate change. This trend would have to be slowed down and subsequently reversed, if the earth’s climate is to remain relatively stable.
System dynamics can be used to calculate future emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the use of fossil fuels and to examine the effects of introducing new energy technologies on such emissions. In this paper, we illustrate this approach by estimating the future emissions of CO2 from energy use in the transportation sectors in India, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand . The sensitivity of such emissions to improvements in automobile efficiency, and to the relative use of public and private transportation is examined.
The approach discussed in the paper can be easily extended to other energy use sectors, such as electricity generation, or industrial uses. Studies of this type can provide valuable input to policy- makers for optimizing the allocation of scarce resources to meet the challenge of global climate change.

Integration of Raster-Based GIS and System Dynamics and Its Application
Pitan Singhasaneh, John E. Lukens, Apisit Eiumnoh, Harvey Demaine

Abstract: At present, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and System Dynamics (SD) can still be considered as scientific tools in the developing stage which are gaining popularity because of their utility in their own separate fields. GIS deals with the data, their position in a coordinate system , their attributes, and their spatial interrelation with each other, while System Dynamics is used to understand problems which are dynamic (involve quantities which change over time), and also involves the notion feedback.

A System Dynamics Approach to Teaching of Settlement Geography
Orasa Suksawang

Abstract: This paper explains an effort to approach system dynamics as a tool for designing a curriculum and integrating experimental learning in a course titled Geography of Settlements. The course is offered for undergraduate students in the field of Social Sciences at Kasetsart University . Its contents deal with change over time and space and integration of physical and social contexts of change. The lectures incorporate experimentation in computer-based learning for understanding theories and information relationships existing in the spatial organization, settlement problems and developments. After students have learned system dynamics concepts and feedback system, they are asked to formulate the causal loops and simple models of settlement growth and urbanization with policies for environmental control, before coming up physical planning and designing a town or a city. The responses of students in class and groups discussion as well as exercise outputs are examined and compared to the control group of students who have no experience with this approach.

A System Dynamics Model of the Efficiency of Primary Education in Latin America
Ben Terlou, Etzel van Kuijk, Jac A.M. Vennix

Abstract: In this paper the problem of low efficiency of primary education in Latin America is described in a Stella model. With this model several policy experiments are conducted, the results of which emphasize the need for a careful consideration of the alternative policy options. Problems of the translation of the conceptualization into the Stella model are resolved only in part. Further lines of development of the model are suggested.

Urban Dynamics of a Developing Country
 A. M. Thirumurthy

Abstract: The magnitude and complexity of urban problems developing countries general and India in particular have not received the attention they deserve from policy makers especialy in the context of the vital role of Essential Environmental Facilities in promoting Socio-economic and political development of the country. The basic need for Essential Environment Facilities in adequate quantity and quality is the driving force behind much of the economic activity which is vital for sustained urban development. Creation and maintenance of Essential Environmental Facilities have traditionally been considered to ensure health and safety to the urban dwellers. In recent years, the delivery system of such facilities has seen greater set back. Increasing population both natural and social has been a major cause for concern. Obsolete taxing system, poor returns from the investments already made and large scale investment on unproductive social welfare and public protection schemes coupled with improper devolution of financialpowers between governments at various levels have aggravated the problems. Lack of drive towards identification of new source of finance and ineffective urban management system have added to the severity of the problems.
Past efforts directed towards ameliorating the urban sickness directed towards ameliorating the urban sickness has not yielded the desired results as they were limited in scope and piecemeal in nature with adhoc financial support. The acute shortage in all segments of the Essential Environment Facilities sector is giving rise to social tension, impeding economic development to the extent of increasing urban poverty and decay. Reversing the trend with a positive direction towards enhancing the quantity and quality of the facilities stock becomes imperative. This calls for long and short term programmes deviced to ensure adequate reach to the different cross section of the population. Operational efficiency and effectiveness for optimum returns should be the prime concern of the programmes. To state the obvious, it is not an easy task to achieve all of them within a short period given the socio-economic and political fabric of the cities.
In this paper a small attempt has been made to bring out the major problems arising out of the process of urbanisation and the impact on the economic activity, the Essential Environment Facilities which include the ’Basic Services’, ‘Complimentary Services’ and ‘Special Urban Services’ and the kind of Urban development programmes relating to Indian conditions. This methodology is intended to serve as an approach for the much needed research work using the principles of system dynamics particularly for developing countries.

Supply and Demand of Computer Personnel in Africa Developing Countries
— A System Dynamics Model —

Alphonse Tousséa-Oulaï

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a system dynamics model to deal with the main factors which influence critically the education and training of computer personnel in African developing countries (ADC). In the model, the needs of industry for skilled computer personnel are determined. According to these needs the required education infrastructure and facilities are provided and the appropriate number of students and professors are planned and educated. Factors like standard of living of the population and resources allocated by the organizations for worker training are taken into account in the model because of the importance of their influence on the results of the education and training system. The model will allow the managers of IT field to design and select the more appropriate policies to match the education and training requirement of the computer personnel in the country.

Mathematical Formulations of System Principles in System Dynamics
Yoshiaki Toyoda, Shizuo Mawatari

Abstract: Almost 35 years have passed since J. W. Forester published his paper “Industrial Dynamics” in 1958, which was the first paper in this field and which later became “system dynamics”. While many books and articles in the field raised its methodology, most of them have described models and discussed applications of system dynamics to specific areas. As a result, evaluation of system dynamics has been obscured by inconclusive debate about particular models. The efforts of many practitioners are leading system dynamics to a better understanding and more comprehensive presentation. But, its methodology needs further development and codification for revealing general characteristics of complex systems. Particularly, stronger links are necessary to the control theory and to enhance the system’s mathematics.
This paper constructs a mathematical theory for thoroughly and precisely analyzing such general models as produced by system dynamics. First, we formulated mathematically, as the axioms of system dynamics, all principles of systems from which “general” characteristics of complex systems are generated. Secondly, we attempt to adequately express the essential mathematics of system dynamics, based on the axioms mentioned above. That is, we investigated the structural stability and the discontinuity of dynamic behavior of complex systems using the concepts in the Catastrophe Theory. And we mathematically explained some important results described in past articles of system dynamics such as the characteristics of complex systems initiated by Forester. Furthermore, we describe a new theoretical method to elucidate structural characteristics in SD models using concepts of Combinational Topology.

Computing the Optimal Production Rates in a Complex Production System
Rafael Ruiz Usano, Adolfo Crespo Marquez

Abstract: It is very well known that setting of the optimal production rates in a complex production system is one of the most important and difficult decisions to be taken. This decision making process frequently seems to be an artisan job as it is necessary to take into account many influential factors simultaneously. In this paper we discuss the way of setting the optimal production rates, by applying optimization techniques and system dynamics methodologies. We study the effects of this approach on costs in order to minimize them and obtain good overall results, even for non-financial measurements. Simulations results are presented.

Long Term Transmission of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic
A System Dynamics Approach

Yamuna Vallipuram

Abstract: The computer simulation model presented in this paper,facilitates the quantitative understanding of the population dynamics of epidemic outbreaks of AIDS. This model provides public health authorities with the predicted consequences of different available control strategies,thus helping to select optional policies and better choice of intervention strategies. As the AIDS epidemic grows to alarming proportions in many parts of the world, causing social and economic losses, widespread disruption and repression of community life, it is important to have an understanding about the underlying causes of the disease and to predict the future trend of the development of the epidemic.

Modelling Diffusion of Energy Technologies: A System Dynamics Approach
Anil K. Vij, Prem Vrat, Sushil 

Abstract: This paper presents an approach to model the spread of new energy technologies in an economy using System Dynamics methodology. Empirical studies on the process of technology diffusion lend evidence to sigmodial diffusion curves e.g. Gompertz’s curve or logistic curve. Two major approaches reported in the literature concerning the process of technology diffusion are: ‘epidemic approach’ and ‘probit approach’. The probit approach is closer to the reality of the economic  world, and has been adopted in the present model. The principle of the model is that the firms are not alike in their expectations of return on investment or risk perceptions. Hence the initial adoption of a new technology is low. But various exogenous and endogenous changes, e.g. price rise of petroleum products, bring increasing number of threshold firms into the category of actual adoptors, which generates the diffusion path for the new technology. The model considers internal rate of return as the basis of such an adoption.

Analyzing the Mechanism of Joint-Venture and Township Enterprises in China
Qifan Wang, Xu Bo

Abstract: By means of the theory and methodology of system dynamics, we create a model which provides us with the study of hidden unemployment, control of production capacity and length of working time, and market promotion.

Enforcing Research and Development: — The Important Way to Get Rid of the Current Predicaments for Chinese Enterpises
Qifan Wang, Xinhua Fu, Yin Jin

Abstract: Business strategy and management decision-making are of prime importance for enterprise to survive and develop in competitions. Under the new circumstances of macro economic adjustment, industrial structure adjustment, and worse operating micro economic environment in China , it especially shows overwhilming importance. The paper based on a generic S.D. model of machinery industry, discusses several problems the enterprises face, such as shortage of working capital, raw material deficiency and intensive market competition. Those problems bring many obstacles to enterprises. In rhe paper we explore a series of solutions concerning technological transformation and new product development. Then we suggest several alternative policies. Furthermore, the paper discusses the effects of technological transformation and new product development on Chinese enterprises under the new circumstances in the long-term. 

Study on the Model for Regional Programming
Li Zhou Wei, Zhou Yong

Abstract: The study on the development of the region is an enormous systematical project.
Therefore, the quantitative method must be used in integrating with the qualitative method to study it. As the conditions and the scopes adaptable to various quantitative methods of study are not the same, the level of solving problems is limited and it would be difficult to reach the goal of studying the regional programming if only one certain method is used.

A System Dynamics Model for Economic Development of Old Industrial Cities
Pei Weimin, Li Yangsheng

Abstract: This paper discusses the modeling problem for the economic development of the old industrial cities in China . A system dynamics model is applied to analyse the recessionary causes of the old industrial cities, and find the possible strategies of the technical progress and economic development in future. The paper gives the simulation results of an example, and discusses the system structure with adding policy loops in the causal diagram.

System Modelling on Analysis of Resource Allocation of Technological Innovation
Qingrui Xu, Jin Chen, Zhiping Wang,  Zhengcheng Lee

Abstract: Technological innovation is a decisive element with high value in modern economic society, and the effect of technological innovation has a great bearing on enterprise’s performance. Over recent years evidence has been accumulated to demonstrate that for a enterprise it is necessary to take a strategic plan, allocating the enterprises limited resource to R&D to promote technological innovation and monitoring the coordination among the new & existing products under the certain R&D expenditure. The issue is that management traditionally employs the static and experimental method to determine the input of R&D in terms of the ratio to sales. In China there existed a tendency to underestimating the role of technological innovation giving impact to the growth of the firm, e.g. in high-tech industry take only 1-2% or less R&D on sales into tech inno activity, and fixed to almost all kinds of industry with the same ratio of input.
In this paper, two system models are developed to solve such problems, which results in the conclusion of individual ratio is required for different industries.

 Urban Systems Model with Refernce to Essential Environmental Facilities of Developing Country
Etsuo Yamamura, A. M. Thirumurthy

Abstract: Urban management in the developing world has been snarled in the tangle of urban complexities. Phenomenal population growth, heightened urban poverty, insufficient essential environmental stock,over utilization of the meager facilities and consequent deteriorating living environment, escalating public welfare and protection cost, persistent financial constraints due to inadequate revenue, non-objective orientation of urban development programs, in efficient urban management system and chaotic social-political fabric are the common features faced by the urban areas of many developing countries.
Particularly in the case of the developing world it becomes important to understand the trade off between urban pressure and strive to find analytical tools which could separate feasible improvements from Utopian failures to reduce the widening gap between planning and management.
When the factors relating to the area of engineering and economics are combined with social factors, the System Dynamics approach is the most valuable tool.
It is within this context an attempt has been made to in this study to formulate an analytical tool which could address the problems of population, economic activity, essential environmental facilities and the urban development programs needed to redress the situation prevailing in the urban area of a developing country.
Towards this end, an attempt is made to formulate an urban development model and application to Madras city of India to asses the functional validity of model.

A Simulation Model of System Dynamics for Evaluating Dynamic Changes of Priority Sectors in Country Industry
Wang Yixiang

Abstract: As the developing speed of the country industry economy depends to a large extent on the developing speed of the whole country economy, .it is the key of success of the country economy planning that how to bring the region superiority into full play, and that which of priority sectors in industry should be developed under the circumstances of limited funds, resources and sources of energy. For this reason, it is difficult to get a united opinion when discussing that which is priority sector in undertaking a country economy planning.
A system dynamics model (SD2 model) suggested in this article is actually one of the model group of system dynamics. The model can be used to evaluate those priority sectors dynamically through being introduced the method of multiobjective decision analysis. In the article, the writer also introduce a simple a simple method of preference ranking about equality or inequality  weight targeted values in a time period of time, so the scientific quantitative basis can be supplied for working out the country economy planning.
There are several characteristics of SD2 model. It can be used to dialogue between person and computer conveniently, to compare and analyse multi-plannings, to give the user dynamic economy indicators and benefits indicators, e.g. fixed assets, labors, rate of profits and taxes to funds,etc. If cutting out the rate of output values of sectors in the evaluating indicators, we can obtain an evaluating indicator for general economy benefits.
The simulation results of the SD2 model have supplied an important reference for working out a county economy planning used in practice effectively. Of course, this model can still be used for the same questions in other sectors or in larger regions.

A Design of the Public Housing Policies through the Dynamics Analysis of the Intra-Urban Migration Structure
Showing H. Young, Kun -Tung Yu, Sy-Feng Wang

Abstract: To construct more public houses so that the low income population in the urban areas can have their own houses is one of the major efforts of the government of the Republic of China on the island of Taiwan . This good-will policy did solve some of the housing problems, yet remained some undesirable ones, such as, the large amount of unsold public houses. Those unsold public houses were primarily due to (1) delayed supply, (2) smaller sizes, and (3) unsuitable locations. This research attempts to study the “unsuitable location problem” and “too small size problem” in the city of Kaohsiung . The System Dynamics methodology is employed to study these problems through model building and policy testing. The model is composed of three sectors: (1) population and the zonal migration attractiveness, (2) housing supply, and (3) housing demand. All the three sectors are interacted with each other. The selection of the variables and the weight of variables are partly determined by field survey. By focusing on the structure of intra-urban migration, it is found that the intra-urban system has a very dynamic feature. The simulation results show that the behavior of the population flow is dominated by several feedbacks loops, some reinforce the growth of population, while others limit it. Through analyzing the simulation results of the model, some design principles of the public housing policy are suggested. From the demonstration of some policy tests, it shoes is the potential of the model to aid the formulation of a “dynamic” public housing policy design, that is, when to supply how much of a certain level public houses to which area of the city under a specific scenario. This preliminary study shows that system dynamics is not only a useful tool to have insights into this kind of complex socioeconomic problems, but also potential to deal with the spatial dimension of urban issues in addition to its mostly temporal applications.

Rural Energy Development of Strategic Research in Beijing Area
Fang Zhen

Abstract: This paper presents a rural energy system dynamics (RESD) model in Beijing . The system covers a wide range of aspects, such as economy, energy, pollution, water, population, labour and farmland. RESD model contains 8 sectors: electric industry, coal industry, building material industry, other industry, the third occupation, capital, agricultural production and people’s life, from which 788 variables were attained with 48 levels equations. The present study puts forward 4 suggestions and how to realize the 4 suggestions to the development of this system.

Forecasts of National Finance Income and Amount of Currency Circulation of China
Li Zhoug-lian, Li Jingshan

Abstract: This paper presents two approaches to forecast the National Finance Income (NFI) and the Amount of Currency Circulation (ACC) of China . Firstly it uses Combined Hierarchical Periodic Adjustment (CHPA) forecasting approach, which fully considers the periodic characteristics of the stochastic time-varying financial system, to forecast the national finance income, and then it uses Controlled Auto-Regressive models with Multi-Step Recursive (MSR) algothrim to forecast the amount of currency circulation, both have got better results.

The Feedback Characteristics of Accounting Dynamics
Saburo Kameyama, Takahiro Kojima, Akira Uchino, Kinya Machida 

Abstract: Just as the feedback concept is the single most essential characteristic of the system dynamics approach, so accounting feedback is the most crucial basis of Accounting Dynamics (AD), a methodology for modeling and simulating accounting using system dynamics. In this presentation, we focus on accounting feedback.
We should like to emphasize that accounting information has essentially feedback characteristics and that its origin can be traced back to the laws of Hammurabi. Since that time, the concepts of stewardship and accountability, for which accounting measurements are exclusively addressed, have formed the feedback nature of accounting information and effectively controlled resource allocation in social systems.
Conceptually, accounting feedback has three aspects, which correspond to the stages of AD model development. They are the formal requirements of double entry bookkeeping,  institutional regulations in financial statements and the real functions of accounting information performing feedback control over the economic resources. Formal feedback is the intrinsic nature of the account system. Based on double entry bookkeeping, the account system of an economic entity constitutes a constantly balanced closed system. Data entry into the account system must automatically occur twice so that the system is always balanced. This account system with debtor and creditor sides provides the formal requirements of accounting feedback.
Institutional regulations reflect generally accepted accounting principles. From the viewpoint of society as a whole, they introduce an approach of total optimization into individual accounting feedback. From the feedback viewpoint one of the most typical accounting principles is the principle of continuity, which forces continuous observance of the same accounting rule over consecutive accounting periods. Once one uses the straight line method of depreciation, for example, one must use it in the next period. Institutional accounting feedback substantially constrains business income.
Finally, the resource allocation feedback aspect of accounting information implies the real function of accounting in social system. Investigating the actual conditions of resource allocation in social systems through accounting feedback control is the very core of Accounting Dynamics. How is resource allocation in our society effected by accounting information? The answer to this question is the ultimate objective of our research. 

The Proper Role for System Dynamics Models in the Process of Policy Making in Business and Government.
Brian Dangerfield

Abstract: In the assessment of strategic policy, greater use of system dynamics models will not be encouraged unless attention is given to the role of the model in the policy process. It’s proper role is to offer improved understanding and insights in the milieu of policy deliberation, but not necessarily to offer ’answers’. System dynamics model can be seen as providing computer based scenarios of the future – – a range of possible paths of which none is assured. The ideas of boardroom systems and group decision support systems offer, respectively, a hardware and a software infrastructure which sustains the assimilation of a formal model into the policy process.

Design and Application of Emulation Model in Big City’s Economic Structure
Bai Tao

Abstract: Based on the participation in the research and design of the economic structure — emulation model of Urumqi City , this paper was written. Regarding the general problems we met in the research and design and also focuing on the threes phrases; Economic theory, System dynamic Method and Application results in practice. this paper discussed the idea and principle. Method and system about the design process of the model was also presented in this paper.
The author thinks that the design of economic structure emulation model should follow six main thoughts and principles. Its model system should include six main parameter mode designs. And the close combination of economic theory and system dynamic method with the application result in practice should be taken as first consideration. The ability of using Dynamic method to solve the economic structure problems can therefore be enhanced.

Industrial Performance and a Market Structure ( A Review of a Gaming Experiment)
Alexander V. Ryzhernkov

Abstract: This paper demonstrates patterns of industrial performance and factors of competitiveness in representative gaming experiment carried out with a help of a simulation model of universal commodity production at Novosibirsk University . The paper inquires about disequilibrium dynamics of the modeling economy and concentrates on repeated decisions of players emphasizing the role of experience and learning in their behaviour. It analyses the intra- and inter- sectoral competition and path-dependent structures of production. The interpretation of experimental results is evoked by Marxian economic theory. The study shows that the applied theoretical framework can lead to propositions deduced or derived empirically in industrial economics.

Supplement

Korea 2020: A Search for Balanced Future
Kyuhan Bae, Young-Myung Choi, Ku-Hyun Jung, Dalgon Lee, Kwang Seok Lee

Abstract: The 21st century is already here (Drucker,1989). Many people predict the 21st century will be fundamentally different from the 20th century (Drucker, 1989; Niasbitt & Aburdene,1990). Looking back upon the past, Korea entered the 20thcentury lacking preparations in the midst of the nation’s internal and external conflicts and confusion. As a consequence, Korea went through several periods of stagnation and difficulty during the first half of the century. However, Korea began to demonstrate its remarkable potential for modernization and development since the early 1960’s. Within a quarter of a century, Korea has emerged as a developing nation rapidly approaching advanced status. Now, Korea is facing another turning point dividing the centuries. Her future depends on her determination and preparation today. The 1990’s is the time for her to make choices and decisions that will promote the prosperity of the nation and the unification of two Koreas. It’s the time to establish a more mature society. It’s the time we should consider the public’s demand for quality of life. It’s the time to consider her natural environment deteriorating due to urbanization and industrialization. All this will be realized only through her devotion to the establishment of a society based on a vision of optimism.

System Dynamics Models for Markov Processes
Pratap K.J. Mohapatra, Rahul Kumar Roy

Abstract: Markov models and System Dynamics models are apparently applicable to two completely different kinds of problems. However, structurally, they can be proved to be equivalent to each other. This paper establishes this equivalence. Critical observation have been made with regard to similarity and aparent differences between the two methodologies. The paper has also proposed a procedure for converting Markov models into system dynamics models. Examples have been drawn for the Birth-Death process, M/M/1 Queue, Poisson Process and Yule Process to illustrate the method. It has been shown that such a framework makes the model for stochastic processes much more transparent and enables the system analyst to understand the behaviour better.

Change of Japanese Dietary Life
Yuzuru Ooshika, Nobuyuki Shimizu, Junko Ooshika

Abstract: Change of Japanese dietary lives, especialy multifacialization, is one of the most interesting phenomena in the Japanese society. It is closely related to various social tendencies; contraction of the family size, shortage of the labor force, increase of aged people, rising up of the income levels, increase of the number of married women with occupation and of unmarried women, progress of the food technology, increase of the number of highly educated people, etc.
The present study is a trial of model building for the analysis of change of Japanese dietary lives, based upon system dynamics. Simulation was carried out up to the year 2005, for total dietary expense, expense for processed foods, expense for dining-out, etc.
According to the simulation results, the fraction of expense for the processed foods and dining-out in total life expenditure increases more rapidly compared with that of total dietary expense, and, in addition, it depends upon families’ income level. That means that social work division of preparing foods and meals, which has, so far, been housewives’ work, is now rapidly advancing in Japan, and that the tendency toward seeking pleasures in foods and meals is getting stronger. These results suggests, with other changing social tendencies, bipolarization of Japanese dietary lives, e.g.  professional cooking – domestic cooking; natural type- sophisticated type; tradition-oriented type- globalization type; isolate type- family type; practice type- pleasure-oriented type.

BYNAMO: System Dynamics Simulator for Beginners and Educational Use
Hisao Shiizuka

Abstract: It is well known that BASIC language is quite a popular one in the world. So it goes without saying that by using BASIC language, the system dynamics simulation can be provided more easily than DYNAMO does.
This paper describes a simulator for system dynamics, which is implemented by BASIC on Personal Computer PC-9800 series. We call the simulator “BYNAMO”. BYNAMO is designed by using many graphic functions of the BASIC language, so as to increase efficiency for programming the system dynamics equations.
It is a strong point of BYNAMO that operations for BYNAMO are simple and easy, so that beginners can study the system dynamics without much experience for programming.

Improvement of Badr’s Algorithm of Robust Control System
Xie Shoushen, Xu Demin, Yang Bingzheng

Abstract: Time- domain robustness of control system is studied in this paper. Badr’s algorithm is enhanced by using matrix perturbation theory and convex polyhedron idea, so as to suit the needs of multiple-parameter variations of high-order system. With matrix trace as performance criterion, a new synthetical algorithm of robust control systems is presented, an example based in this algorithm is also given.

ENSIGAME: A Simulation Game for Environmental Policy Making
K. Vizayakumar, Pratap K. J. Mohapatra

Abstract: This paper presents a system dynamics based simulation game for environmental policy making. Due to the increasing awareness among people regarding the deterioration of environment as a result of the use of modern technology, the government has to take some action against the industry to motivate them to take pollution control measures. This leads the government and the industry into a game situation wherein they take actions, perhaps every year, by observing the other’s reactions. Subsidy, tax exemption, and pollution taxes are found to be the viable options before the government. This situation is modelled here as a game in three modes, namely, both government and industry interactive mode, government only interactive mode, and industry only interactive mode. The results obtained by these three modes of the game are then compared with the model results. This game facilitates experimentation with different strategies for both the government and industry representatives. It is found improving the knowledge of the participants in decision making in such a conflicting environment.

Simulation for a Deadly Blow to Tokyo by the Coming Next Large Earthquake
Yasoi Yasuda

Abstract: After the Second World War, Japan has achieved a rapid economic growth. GNP of Japan becomes the second in the developed industrialized countries after the USA . Per capita GNP will be the first in the world pararelled with Switzerland . Following to high economic growth, Tokyo, capital of Japan has become a big monster concentrating many functions.
At present, Japan has 120,000,000 of population. And in the Tokyo metropolitan area, there are 30,000,000 of the population, in truth, 25% of the total population of Japan .
Tokyo is one the most softy city in the world on the field of crime. Homer Tokyo is one the most dangerous cities in the field of the earthquake like ITALY .

The Motivation of Project Managers. A Study of Variations in Project Managers’ Motivation and Demotivation by Triangulation of Methods.
Svein Arne Jessen

Abstract: Both practical work and literature studies have confirmed the project work gives rise to many motivational reactions, and that for the project manager many of them vary in a particular, recognizable way in the different phases of the project life cycle. This way in recognition behind the decision to make a thorough, scientific analysis at the PHD-level of the process by which project managers are motivated. The phenomenon was studied from two different angles by so-called “triangulation” of methods. One angle was a typical qualitative method, in which through “open interviews” with a limited number of Norwegian project managers their motivational reactions were examined. The other one was to apply a typical quantitative method in which a computer simulation model of a project based on the principle of System Dynamics was built and run, from which variations in managerial motivation in projects could be studied. Both approaches were initiated by a questionnaire survey of factors assumed to be important for project managers.