Volume 20 – Number 2 June 2007
||2007 Boston Conference Update
As part of the celebratory events planned to commemorate 50 years of system dynamics, we set the 25th anniversary conference as a target date to complete two projects that were conceived at the 2001 Atlanta conference.
With the help of private donors who provided seed money, The Electronic Oracle by D.H. Meadows and J.M Robinson has been reprinted with new forewords from Dennis Meadows and John Sterman. This is a limited edition reprinting; the original book is very hard to find. Thanks to Dennis Meadows for helping with all the steps in this project.
Do you remember the Fireside Chat plenary session in Atlanta? Attendees were asked to send in questions for Jay Forrester to answer. George Richardson led the interview. The session was videotaped and is now available on DVD. The chat lasts about one hour; it is interesting and fun to watch.
Both The Electronic Oracle and the Fireside Chat DVD will be available for sale at a special price during the conference at the Pegasus Communications booth. They will remain available for purchase from the Society after the conference.
The Call for Photos has turned up some interesting snippets of the past. It’s not too late to send one in to be included in the display at the conference. If you have a document or photo that could be copied and displayed at the 2007 conference, please send it to the Society office. Material may be in electronic form or hard copy.I look forward to seeing everyone at the conference. Please contact the Society office if we can help you with your conference registration or any other Society or membership issue. Warm regards, Roberta
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David F. Andersen
Deborah Lines Andersen
Brian C. Dangerfield
Michael J. Radzicki
Robert Y. Cavana
Jay W. Forrester
David W. Packer
Henk A. Akkermans
Gloria Perez Salazar
Niraldo do Nascimento
Emmanuel D. Adamides
Thomas Beck & Stefan Groesser
Brian C. Dangerfield & Roderick Brown (sec.)
Carol Frances & Michael Kennedy
Richard Dudley & Tom Forest
Vedat Diker, Luis Luna & Oleg Pavlov
Jose Gonzalez & Klaus Breuer
Andrea Bassi & Luc Van Den Durpel
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Our plan to publish four issues of the System Dynamics Newsletter every year continues with this, the second issue of this year. Please send us your letters, news, photographs, and ideas to be included in one of the newsletters! Additionally, if you would like to contribute an article of interest to our community, please send your suggestion to the Society office.
All past newsletters, back to 1988, are available on the Society website under " Publications."
The System Dynamics Bibliography is updated every six months. Members may download the bibliography for free. Please send your new references to the Society office. We ask your help in improving the accuracy and usefulness of the Bibliography. Please check your entries for correctness; send any edits (including deletions of entries that have been superseded) to the Society office. Find the Bibliography online on our "Member Services" webpage.
If you have not yet renewed, please do so now to ensure uninterrupted member services! It is simple to renew. Please visit the Society website and click on "How to Join or Renew." There are downloadable membership forms. Or, just call!
The System Dynamics Society and the Center for Policy Research at the University at Albany recently welcomed three speakers who gave presentations about their system dynamics-related works.
In May, Frank P. Davidson and Kathleen Lusk Brooke presented an overview of their new book, Building the World: An Encyclopedia of the Great Engineering Projects in History. The audience enjoyed listening about how civilizations have created structures of immense scale, requiring such tremendous resources, that they might have been thought impossible. From the Taj Mahal to the Suez Canal, from Solomon's Temple to the Channel Tunnel, these feats of macroengineering are a testament to the creativity and foresight of architects, engineers, governmental leaders, lawyers, bankers, and diplomats. Macroengineering must rely upon the big picture methodology of system dynamics.
In March Professor Andrew Ford gave a talk on "Climate Change & Carbon Policy: Implications of a System Dynamics Study of the Electric Power System in the Western USA and Canada." The seminar began with a review of recent studies of climate change and the call for major reductions in the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into the atmosphere. The seminar focused on one of the more carefully studied proposals for carbon legislation in the US, S139, the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003.
Worcester Polytechnic Institute has announced the appointment of James K. Doyle as head of the Social Science and Policy Studies Department on July 1, replacing Khalid Saeed, professor of social science and policy studies, who will return to teaching and research full time after 10 years as department head. Doyle, associate professor of social science and policy studies, has been a member of the WPI faculty since 1992. His research has focused on judgment and decision making, risk perception and communication, and mental models of complex systems. Along with continuing to offer five undergraduate majors, and a unique master's program in system dynamics, Doyle says the department is developing plans for a PhD program in system dynamics.
Congratulations to Peter Milling! In April Professor Peter Milling, who leads the system dynamics group at the University of Mannheim, received an honorary doctorate in management (Dr. rer. pol. h.c.) from the Engineering and Management Faculty of Brandenburg Technical University at Cottbus. The citation for the degree specifically cites Peter's work in system dynamics and operations management. This is only for the second time in Germany (after Jay Forrester) that anyone has received an honorary doctorate for work in system dynamics. Heartfelt best wishes to Peter.
The 4th Systems Dynamics Workshop took place on June 11th at Fordham Business School, NYC. The theme of the workshop was Complex Information System Dynamics and Strategic Performance focusing on the management and business impact of information technology. Prof Nicholas Georgantzas (chair, Fordham) introduced system dynamics and discussed scenario-driven planning. Prof. Evangelos Katsamakas (program chair, Fordham) discussed the promise of System Dynamics applications in the field of information systems and presented research on the dynamics of open source software. Michael Raynor (Deloitte) presented his latest book, The Strategy Paradox. Other academics from Fordham, CUNY and George Mason University presented research related to software markets, IT strategy, security, and sustainability. The workshop successfully brought together academics and business/IT managers from the NY area to discuss current business challenges and applications of system dynamics.
Third European System Dynamics Workshop at the University of St. Gallen: The European System Dynamics Workshops are a series of biennial events, which are aimed at bringing together leading system dynamicists from European countries and contributing to the work on the important issues, in the International System Dynamics Community. The third workshop was held at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, from March 22nd – 24th, 2007. Among the participants were: Bent Bakken, Carmine Bianchi, Enzo Bivona, Gianluca Colombo, Brian Dangerfield, Andreas Größler, Matej Janovjak, Christian Kapmann, Florian Kapmeier, Birgit Kopainsky, David Lane, Erik Larsen, Marcel Loher, Peter Milling, Erling Moxnes, Günther Ossimitz, José Pérez Ríos, Etiënne Rouwette, Jürgen Strohhecker, Silvia Ulli-Beer, Jac Vennix, as well as doctoral students. The workshop was organized by Geraldine Frei, Stefan Grösser, and Markus Schwaninger. The contributions to the workshop are now being processed and planned to result in a special issue of the journal Systems Research and Behavioral Science.
New PhD: David Wheat successfully defended his PhD dissertation "The Feedback Method: A System Dynamics Approach to Teaching Macroeconomics." It was approved by University of Bergen, 2007. A hearty congratulations to David!
New Book: Systems Thinking, System Dynamics: Managing Change and Complexity, 2 nd ed. by Kambiz E. Maani & Robert Y. Cavana . Published by Pearson Education New Zealand, Auckland. 2007. 288pp. ISBN: 978 1 877371 03 5
This revised edition, re-titled Systems Thinking, System Dynamics, offers readers a comprehensive introduction to the growing field connecting systems thinking and system dynamics, and its applications. The book provides a self-contained and unique blend of qualitative and quantitative tools, step-by-step methodology, numerous examples and mini-cases, as well as extensive real-life case studies. The content mix and presentation style make the otherwise technical tools of systems thinking and system dynamics accessible to a wide range of people.
Systems Thinking, System Dynamics includes additional material on theory as well as several new cases. The book comes with a CD-ROM that includes the models presented in the book as well as the installation package for a save-disabled version of the iThink software and the installation program for Vensim PLE (Personal Learning Edition) which allows users to create their own models. Available from Pearson Education (NZ), www.pearsoned.co.nz/vbd/systemsthinking or from Pegasus Communications Inc. www.pegasuscom.com
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Operational Research Society Conference, Edinburgh, UK: September 2007
The 49th annual Operational Research Society conference is to be held in the beautiful and historic city of Edinburgh in Scotland on 4th-6th September 2007.
The conference will include a system dynamics stream. This will build on an interesting and successful series of system dynamics streams that have been held during the last few annual conferences. To mark the 50th anniversary of system dynamics the 2007 stream will reflect the diverse range of applications that system dynamics has been applied to since its beginnings. For example, presentations will cover the impact of system dynamics when informing policy making in healthcare, construction, supply chains, fisheries and transportation. Presenters on the stream include John Morecroft, Brian Dangerfield, Kim Warren and John Swanson. An additional aim of the stream, which will be explicitly considered during one of the presentations, is to bring together the system dynamics community in the UK and to consider how the community can continue to develop in the future.
In addition to the system dynamics stream there will be a number of other parallel streams covering a wide range of operational research topics. Streams include discrete-event simulation, health care modelling, problem structuring methods, operational research and strategy, performance measurement, European operational research consultancy, defense plus many more. The conference will be held at the University of Edinburgh which is located within easy reach for the city centre. Edinburgh is an historic, cosmopolitan and cultured city with a wonderfully striking setting. Edinburgh Castle dominates the city-centre skyline and from its ramparts you can look down on medieval lanes and elegant, sweeping terraces. The conference social program allows participants to take in the beauty of Edinburgh by joining a city walking tour, a trip to Holyrood Palace and a visit to the Royal Yacht Britannia. The beautiful city location, interesting range of topics and comprehensive social program are sure to lead to an exciting and enjoyable conference.
To prospective authors of articles for System Dynamics Review: A note from the Executive Editor, Brian Dangerfield
Please note that as from 1st January 2007 (Volume 23) we will be including keywords along with abstracts. Although the instructions to authors have included the request to supply up to eight keywords we have not included them in print. This will change from 23:1 as it will allow for reference search engines (such as Google Scholar) to more easily trace articles published in System Dynamics Review. Please do not include "system dynamics", "modelling" or "modeling" (USA) in your keywords and remember the maximum is eight.
5th Latin American System Dynamics Conference Buenos Aires, Argentina - Nov 7th - 10th
In the context of the annual conferences organized by the Latin American Chapter of the International System Dynamics Society; the Buenos Aires Institute of Technology (ITBA), through the Department of Industrial Engineering, and its System Dynamics Centre, has the pleasure of formally announcing the 5th edition of the Latin American System Dynamics Conference. For more information see this page.
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June 21st is the deadline for early registration and room reservation. Please contact the Society office for registration assistance. For updated details, please visit the Society website at: http://www.systemdynamics.org/ and click on the "2007 Conference button."
2007 marks the 25th annual conference of the System Dynamics Society and the 50th anniversary of the founding of the field. In celebration, the conference will feature a number of special events marking these important milestones. Join us for this wonderful occasion on July 29 – August 2, 2007!
The conference will bring together approximately 600 people working in system dynamics and systems thinking. Presentations by practitioners and world leaders in the field will cover a wide variety of topics.
Please visit the conference website for further information http://www.systemdynamics.org/ Click on “2007 Conference”Tentative Schedule Available: Presentation abstracts, a number of full papers and supporting materials are available for preview online; simply follow the links. A program overview by thread is also available to preview the conference program by subject.
The conference program will consist of invited and contributed sessions and workshops demonstrating the state of the art in the theory and application of system dynamics.
In addition, panel discussions, special interest group sessions, student colloquia, the modeling assistance workshop, events of historic interest, vendor displays, exhibits, demonstrations, Society business meetings and other related activities will be scheduled. The conference schedule will provide time for relaxed social and professional interaction.
The conference will bring together diverse perspectives on the application of system dynamics to important issues in the theory of complex dynamic systems and the practical use of these tools to address critical real-world challenges.
Thursday Workshop Description: The Boston conference will offer 21 workshop sessions for you to choose from. If you are planning to attend any of the workshops, you can find links to a tentative workshop schedule by thread as well as full workshop descriptions with titles, and presenters of each workshop in the program section of the conference web page. Some workshop presenters ask that you bring certain materials or do some reading in advance so please read the specific workshop information carefully.
Social Program: In addition to our traditional informal gathering on Sunday, and the banquet on Tuesday, there is a Neighborhoods of Boston Buffet on Monday evening. Other events include a Guided Tour of MIT (advanced sign up requested), Freedom Trail Walking Tour (advanced sign up requested), Talent Show (talent call to attendees and guests), Beer Game World Championship Event, and the Diagram Slam. Also please find information on some local events including the Museum of Fine Arts' Concerts-in-the-Courtyard Series, Shop South End's Open Market, Nosh at North End Italian Feast Celebrations, and Edward Hopper Nighthawks. See the conference website for more details.
7th Annual Modeling Assistance Workshop (MAW): Jack Homer and Roderick MacDonald will facilitate the Sixth Annual Modeling Assistance Workshop.
Modeling assistance is available at the conference to enable modelers to discuss their specific modeling questions with modeling coaches. Modeling assistance opportunities include two public workshops, as well as the possibility of assistance at any time during the conference. Assistance is available for modelers with all levels of modeling ability, from beginner to advanced, with questions about a specific model that modelers are developing or studying, or to better understand something in a book, an article, or a software package. Modeling questions may deal with problem articulation, formulation of a dynamic hypothesis, formulation of a simulation model, model testing, or policy design and evaluation. Modelers should bring whatever materials they need to describe their question, including pencil and paper, books, posters, or laptop computers. Spectators are welcome to observe modeling assistance during the two public sessions.
Navigator Program: If you are a first-time attendee, you may want to consider signing up for this program. First-timers and veteran attendees will be brought together based on their topics of interest.
Conference Roommates: If you are looking for a roommate, please email the Society office for coordination suggestions.
Please click this link to see the list of conference sponsors.
Deadlines: Registration and room reservation forms are available on the conference website.
The conference presentations are scheduled to start at 8:30 AM, Monday July 30. Pre-conference events scheduled for Sunday include the PhD Colloquium, the Policy Council meeting, the Special Convened Session: Health Policy Discussion, and the informal gathering.
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The 26th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Athens, Greece July 20Ė July 24, 2008
The venue for the 2008 conference of the System Dynamics Society will be the Athenaeum Intercontinental Hotel in Athens, Greece. Athens is an historic, cosmopolitan and cultured city with many nearby attractions. Visiting historic sites and museums, attending cultural events, sightseeing and shopping are very convenient thanks to Athens’s modern transportation infrastructure.
The Athenaeum Intercontinental Hotel is situated in Athens’s main business district and features elegant guest rooms. It is just a short distance from Syntagma Square, the Plaka district, the Acropolis and other historic sites. Many restaurants, shops and museums are very close. The hotel is a short ride from Eleftherios Venizelos Airport.Of most importance to the conference attendees, the Athenaeum Intercontinental Hotel conference facilities are excellent! This will provide a wonderful venue for all programs and sessions. For detailed information about the Athenaeum Intercontinental Hotel, visit: http://www.intercontinental.com
Conference Co- Chairs:
Brian C. Dangerfield
The Call for Papers will be distributed at the Boston conference. Watch for further announcements and details as they develop: http://www.systemdynamics.org
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AIMS (Advanced Integrated Management Strategies, llc.), based in Dallas, Texas, has worked with global industry leaders in 30 countries on 6 continents, providing innovative and integrated business solutions. Led by Chairman Usman A. Ghani, AIMS has earned a respectable name in corporate America. It has recently repositioned the company to the new name ConfluentC to best serve the changing needs of today’s organizations. Guided by a central concept of dynamic integration, ConfluentC evaluates a company’s strategies and takes them from complexity to ‘confluency’.
Our consultants excel at seeing an organization’s larger picture and how each piece influences another in a fast-moving world. By studying this expanded dynamic view, ConfluentC is able to help companies streamline their practices to create a more enterprising future. From small enterprises like Central Hardwoods to mid-sized companies like Handango and large enterprises like Verizon Communications, ConfluentC has provided new, deeper insights to its clients.
ConfluentC’s experts offer a variety of approaches and strategies to many current business issues. To target these concerns, ConfluentC has developed a variety of frameworks and methods as well as executive education and training sessions in the areas of corporate governance, business innovation, operational effectiveness, strategic marketing, and solutions selling. Sample offerings include: Dynamic Governance, Confluent Strategy, Organizing for Effective Innovation, Dynamics of Implementation and Operational Effectiveness, Supply Chain Management, Holistic Marketing, and Managing the Dynamics of Change.
An accomplished keynoter, Mr. Ghani regularly addresses today’s timely business issues through speaking engagements around the globe. He has led discussion on the topic of Dynamic Innovation at the Korean Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and spoken on the importance of Dynamic Governance during the "Sustainable Development of Asia Pacific" conference held in Shanghai, China. Mr. Ghani also serves as visiting professor at UTD School of Management, and as the President of The Peter F. Drucker Society of Texas.
In partnership with Grid International, ConfluentC have introduced the influential Leadership Grid Ó Seminars to the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Typically held at the American Airlines Training & Conference Center, the seminars have been a great success, training executives on the impact of their leadership styles in leading confluent organizational change. Executives participated from companies like Affiliated Computer Systems, Baylor Healthcare Systems, CB Richard Ellis, Fujitsu Computer Systems, KeyCorp, Owens Corning, Rosewood Hotels/Resorts, and Texas Instruments.
To learn more about ConfluentC and upcoming programs, please visit www.ConfluentC.com or call 972-871-8417.
Evans & Peck is a management consultancy that has been providing decision modelling advice to its clients for over 20 years. We currently operate in Australia, New Zealand, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and UAE.
Evans & Peck provides consulting services in simulation modelling (system dynamics, discrete event and agent based), simulation optimisation, financial modelling and executive dashboards.
Our modelling website ( http://www.decisionmodelling.com ) provides information and examples of our entire modelling capability.
We are also the distributors of iThink, STELLA and AnyLogic software in Australia and New Zealand. We run public and private training workshops in these modelling tools at any of our international offices or at client’s premises. Contact [email protected] for details of upcoming workshops.
Over the past year we have strengthened our modelling expertise in health, transport and port logistics, human resource management and business processes. We have undertaken a diverse range of modelling assignments including:
· E-Health system benefits realisation study
· Bus fleet management
· Workforce planning for a major mining company
· Commercial frameworks for project alliances and facility asset management
· Shopping mall usage
At Evans & Peck, we continuously upgrade our modelling capabilities to respond to the needs of our clients. This year we are in development of a tool for the optimisation of project portfolio allocation. This tool combines the techniques of simulation and optimisation to aid major government agencies and private corporations select an optimal portfolio of projects. We are now seeking suitable corporations or government organisations to work with in customising the tool to their particular needs.
Led by Dan Roesch, GM Strategic Initiatives (GMSI) is a staff of General Motors Corporation responsible for analyzing major strategic initiatives for the company. Within GMSI, Phil Keenan leads the development of detailed quantitative models of the automotive industry or specific aspects of it, in order to more accurately assess the likely impact of potential new strategies. Many of these are system dynamics and/or agent-based simulation models developed with the help of consultants Mark Paich and Lyle Wallis of Decisio LLP.
One recent project included building a management flight simulator. Building on Vensim’s gaming interface capability, we developed a multi-player game in which senior executives played the roles of GM and key competitors during a future new product launch. The real-time competitive nature of the gaming interface engaged the executives’ emotions and the power of the experiential learning led to important changes in GM’s real-life strategy.
We also developed an agent-based simulation of interacting consumers purchasing vehicles, calibrated with demographic and historical purchase data. This combination of system dynamics with agent-based simulation seems promising because it enables modeling a wider array of behaviors, such as non-compensatory consumer choice.
Global Strategy Dynamics, based near London, UK, creates and distributes business simulations and other materials that support the teaching of Strategy. Our approach blends system dynamics and a resource-view of strategy to create materials applicable to all organisations whether commercial or not for profit. Our director, Dr. Kim Warren, teaches the approach at London Business School through MBA and executive programmes and also instructs on Strategy Dynamics though the WPI advanced studies program. In 2005 he was awarded the Jay. W. Forester prize for his book “Competitive Strategy Dynamics” and a new volume “Strategic Management Dynamics” will be published in November 2007.
Current projects include working with a major UK training organisation one new sales planning Microworld and developing facilities for online games, reducing IT load on universities.
Our customers include universities, consulting firms and corporate trainers and our licensing terms cater for these different markets. Our website contains a wealth of information and downloads as well as having a private “Instructors” area where we make additional material available to individuals engaged in teaching.
Summary product list:
Microworlds: Mobile Phones Subscribers, Brands Management, Beefeater Restaurants, Professional Services, Iglu.com, eBank, LoFare Airlines, People Express, White Label Restaurants, Jane Sloan Life Management simulation
Simulation software : mystrategy® Reader and single user and academic licences.
Other teaching materials : Strategy Dynamics in Action teaching materials, Mastering Strategy Dynamics 10 lecture video course.
Visit www.strategydynamics.com for more information or visit us our stand at the conference.
Wishing everyone involved in the Boston Conference, in whatever capacity, an enjoyable, instructive and interesting conference, in this celebration year.
GoldSim Technology Group (www.goldsim.com) began developing GoldSim, its probabilistic simulation platform, in 1990. GoldSim differs from traditional system dynamics approaches in that 1) it puts much greater emphasis on probabilistic simulation techniques to support representation of uncertain and/or stochastic systems; and 2) it provides a wide variety of specialized model objects (beyond stocks, flows and converters) in order to make models less abstract (and hence more transparent) and help represent processes and events that cannot easily be represented using a traditional system dynamics approach. This includes specialized modules to support Risk and Reliability Analysis, Financial Modeling, and Mass Transport Modeling, as well as features to simultaneously represent continuous and discrete dynamics.
These differences are due to the fact that GoldSim has most commonly been used for engineering and scientific applications where quantitative probabilistic predictions of future performance have been required (e.g., by regulators and other stakeholders) in order to inform and defend policy and design designs.
Almost 200 commercial and government organizations in 30 countries, and over 200 academic institutions use GoldSim (free, fully functional academic licenses are provided for teaching purposes). Examples of GoldSim applications include the following:
The annual GoldSim User Conference will be held in San Francisco, California October 25-26, 2007. Prior to the conference, we will offer both basic and advanced training sessions. Our annual conferences provide a terrific opportunity for you to see how others are using the software, learn about new features, share experiences with other users and the GoldSim developers, and provide input for the future development of GoldSim.
Health Market Science (HMS) is a leading company in building system dynamics models for the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries and a proud sponsor of the 2007 System Dynamics Conference, Boston, MA. We provide our clients with a dynamic, web-based interface, built upon a fully calibrated client-specific SD model, to be used for brand planning, new product launches and forecasting. By employing HMSí SD interface, HMS MarketSimô, our clients are able to make better business decisions and understand how their forecasts are impacted by these strategic choices. Our models incorporate all of the forces present in the highly dynamic pharmaceutical market, including the impacts of competitive brands, generic products, managed care, pricing, promotion and physician perceptions of quality.
HMS is also a leading manufacturer of health care provider data. Our models leverage our unique database, but also include our clientís market research data, which brings validity and trust to the forecast results. Based upon the product market research and client workshops, market scenarios are hypothesized and the model is developed, and then calibrated against actual market data. The online interface provides our clients an environment within which different market scenarios can be created and analyzed to support their brand planning. Throughout the modeling phase, HMS interacts closely with our clients so that they are aware of the modelís underlying assumptions and suggested structure. After delivering the model, we are involved with on-site training of the brand planning team to help them use MarketSimô and to support them with further data analysis through workshops. Finally, after the brand planning is done and new market data becomes available, HMS updates the model with the new data so that it remains a valid and valuable decision making platform.
For more information about the company please visit our website at www.healthmarketscience.com.
Jack continues to consult with both private and public sector clients, and to write published research papers and do public speaking. Some recent full-scale SD modeling projects include:
- Harley Davidson Inc.: Improving sales of Harley-brand parts and accessories;
- Mars Inc.: Improving product development workload management;
- Standard & Poor's, Inc.: Improving service quality and skill-chain management;
- US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC):
(1) Understanding the growth, management, and possible prevention of diabetes;
(2) Understanding the past growth and possible future reduction of obesity;
(3) Investigating the control and possible prevention of risk factors for cardiovascular disease.
Recent research papers have focused on applications of SD to health issues, and have appeared in the American Journal of Public Health, Preventing Chronic Disease, the Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science, and the System Dynamics Review. Recent speaking engagements have been for CIGNA Healthcare, the National Institutes of Health, Duke University, Cornell University, SUNY Albany, and the University of Michigan. Jack also contributes to the annual International SD Conference as co-chair of the Health Thread, co-director of the Modeling Assistance Workshop, and organizer of the Thursday Workshops.
isee systems (formerly High Performance Systems) is the world leader in Systems Thinking software. Founded in 1985, isee developed STELLA®, the first software to bring Systems Thinking to the desktop. In addition to STELLA which is used primarily by educators and researchers, isee offers iThink® for business simulation.
Thousands of individuals and organizations in over 80 countries use isee’s modeling and simulation software to gain insight and shared understanding of environmental, financial, organizational, biological, chemical, mathematical, humanistic, and other systems.
New versions and ongoing updates to STELLA and iThink offer features that extend the overall capabilities of the software and make it even easier to use. isee recently partnered with Forio Business Simulations to offer a new, web-based service for sharing models developed in STELLA and iThink. The service, available for software versions 9.0.2 and later, provides an easy way for modelers to share and run their models on the web.
More than a software company, isee systems has become a Systems Thinking resource, providing classroom and online training, printed books and teaching materials, and links to articles and organizations. In collaboration with our consulting partners, isee continues to develop and expand programs that quickly build understanding of Systems Thinking concepts and practical skills in the application of dynamic modeling. Workshops, online courses and training materials are available for Systems Thinkers and STELLA and iThink users at all levels.To learn more, visit www.iseesystems.com or call (603) 448-4990.
Quantitative Investment Management: Jantz Morgan LLC is a boutique investment management company founded on the premise that superior quantitative models will significantly outperform human experts over the long term. We utilize System Dynamics as the foundation of our model building approach: stressing science over art; stressing cause and effect relationships over correlations; and, stressing replicability and consistency of process without over reliance on singular events. Our investment thesis is straightforward: we identify security mis-pricings created by the market's short-term focus on current events by modeling long-run business dynamics at the individual company level. Providing our clients with total return, in a diversified portfolio with an acceptable level of asset volatility, is our objective.
This information does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Please see Jantz Morgan’s web site (www.jantzmorgan.com) or our ADV Part II for important disclosures.
Jantz Morgan LLC, 253 Pleasant Street Arlington, MA 02476
[email protected] 781.643.6027 www.jantzmorgan.com
Driving Earth-Friendlier Powertrain Technologies: Kolbenschmidt Pierburg powertrain technologies are designed to help make vehicles more earth-friendly while preserving mobility and meeting the needs of a demanding driver public.
Kolbenschmidt Pierburg is a leading independent producer of quality powertrain components . that meet and exceed the global automotive industry’s wide spectrum of needs for enhanced powertrain performance. Technologies by Kolbenschmidt Pierburg are designed to elevate powertrain performance while reducing emissions, optimizing fuel consumption, reducing NVH and augmenting engine durability and overall reliability.
Kolbenschmidt Pierburg operates five business units globally, serving the vehicle original equipment manufacturers in both gasoline and diesel applications while supporting their work in hybrids and alternative fuel technologies. These business units include Pierburg, Pierburg Pump Technology, KS Kolbenschmidt, KS Gleitlager and KS Aluminium Technologie.
Pierburg has a long history of expertise in automotive air and fuel control along with emission-control technologies. Pierburg pioneered the development of technologies such as electronic throttle control (ETC), as well as secondary air systems and electric exhaust-gas recirculation (EGR) valves…all designed to reduce emissions while not sacrificing vehicle performance.
Pierburg Pump Technology features a variety of oil and coolant pumps. The electric water and oil pumps are designed provide cooling on demand, which results in greater engine efficiency and enhanced performance. Elimination of engine belts and pulleys helps raise engine performance and fuel economy by minimizing the drag on the engine. Electric coolant pumps play an important roll in hybrid technology cooling.
KS Kolbenschmidt is a premier producer of pistons with a broad portfolio of products that range from automotive engines to heavy-duty truck, hand power tools and large marine applications. KS Kolbenschmidt is a pioneer in lightweight piston technology. Its innovative technologies have helped reduce noise, improve fuel economy and reduce emissions through highly precise design and manufacturing.
KS Gleitlager is among the world’s major producers of plain bearings for powertrain applications. Its innovative low-maintenance and maintenance-free technologies, such as Permaglide® products, positively address major environmental concerns about the use of lead and, at the same time, offer increased reliability while contributing to lower maintenance costs.
KS Aluminium Technologie is an emerging business for Kolbenschmidt Pierburg in North America. In Europe it is a respected market leader producing sophisticated lightweight aluminum engine blocks in the premium segment that improve thermal conductivity and create an opportunity for lighter weight vehicles, tighter tolerances for pistons and main bearings. This produces greater efficiency and performance that can affect fuel economy and emissions. The overall lower energy costs and highly recyclable materials used to produce aluminum blocks, compared to cast iron, is rapidly catching interest in the industry and escalating the use of this technology .Kolbenschmidt Pierburg employs approximately 11,922 worldwide and recorded global sales in fiscal 2006 of $2.75 billion USD (2.181 billion Euro).
We are an independent, employee-owned, global firm of 3,000 talented individuals, operating from offices across the world, in Europe, North America, Latin America, and Asia. We have won numerous awards for delivering complex and highly innovative assignments and run one of the most successful venture programs in our industry. We have a technology development capability that few firms can match, deep expertise across key industries and government, and a unique breadth of skills from strategy to IT to HR to applied technology
PA and System Dynamics
PA has a long and strong track-record of performing ground-breaking System Dynamics work, with over four decades of experience dating back to 1963 (via our acquisition of Pugh-Roberts Associates). In PA we use System Dynamics as part of an overall strategy analysis process and we focus on finding practical, executable solutions to help our clients work through difficult challenges. Examples of our System Dynamics work include: strategic analysis and insight; policy assessment and lessons-learned; process improvement; and major program analysis & advice. We will have a number of our System Dynamics experts at the upcoming conference – please stop by our booth to learn more about our work, talk about opportunities, or just say ‘hello’.
PA – a force for transformation
At PA Consulting Group, we focus on transforming the performance of organizations. We pull together teams from many disciplines and backgrounds to tackle the most complex problems facing our clients, working with leaders and their teams to deliver strategic change in the private and public sectors. Clients call on us when they want:
Our System Dynamics work is growing
We are interested in talking with sharp, well-rounded, analytical people who are committed to making a difference by solving complex problems in close cooperation with clients and colleagues. We use System Dynamics in a wide range of ways, from developing strategic causal maps used for creating a shared vision amongst a senior team, to building detailed, large models that are closely calibrated to data and used to guide major corporate and government decisions. While we are hiring for a range of capability across PA, we have a special interest in candidates with strong expertise in System Dynamics for our Washington office in the US, and London and Frankfurt in Europe. If you want to be part of our growing team please contact Tamara Greenlaw at [email protected] or call 1 (617) 225-2700.
More information about PA can be found at www.paconsulting.com.
Powersim Solutions provides SD-based simulation tools and modeling services to clients world-wide. Powersim’s proprietary platforms, ExPlan™ and ExTrain™, offer organizations risk-free simulation environments for management training and scenario-based planning, analysis and execution of strategy. ExPlan™ allows managers to set corporate goals, factor in external pressures through alternative scenarios, and experiment with competing strategies for allocating resources within the organization.
ExTrain™ enables management to engage the rank and file in the design of strategy, as well as communicating it throughout their organization. It is an engaging tool, which serves as a virtual practice field for managers to exercise decision-making power under various conditions in a risk-free environment. The ExTrain™ application may be used in several settings, including competitive (multi-user war-gaming), collaborative (group of users), or non-competitive (single user).
Over the last year, Powersim Solutions has conducted its largest war-game event with 300 participants competing in five parallel markets set up to mimic the dynamics in semiconductor equipment industry. In addition to other management and executive training events, the company has also been busy developing simulation-based planning applications for clients in US and abroad, especially the Middle East
We are currently seeking partners who are interested in licensing our application platforms for delivering their simulation models. For more information about partnering and licensing ExTrain™ and ExPlan™, please contact us at:
The University at Albany continues its teaching program by offering three graduate courses in System Dynamics to our masters and Ph.D. students as well as one undergraduate course. This past year, David Andersen and George Richardson, have been working on group model building projects with the British Health Service and the United States Department of Homeland Security. Rod MacDonald and the Initiative for System Dynamics in the Public Sector has ongoing research projects with the National Institute of Justice, the New York State Governor's Traffic Safety Committee, the Department of Environmental Conservation, the Office of Mental Health and the Village of Lake Placid, New York.
We are very pleased at being nominated among top 3 at the Worldwide Marketing Excellence Awards at Coca-Cola 2006: 'Vanguard Competing for Choice, Dynamic modeling of consumer behavior over time to identify and target growth opportunities' and in 'providing the most inspiring insights'.
Over the last year we have successfully expanded our operations into the Asian markets, with projects delivered in China and the Philippines, and several more underway in China, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines. In parallel, we continue to build our presence in Europe and the US.
As a result of this, we are seeking accomplished professionals who can contribute to our team of specialist consultants in providing our advanced strategy approaches for leading brands around the globe.
Ventana Systems, Inc. is pleased to share in the celebration of 50 years of System Dynamics. We will be exhibiting at this summers conference and look forward to seeing all who can make it. Version 5.6e of Vensim will be released shortly, with a variety of enhancements and performance improvements. For more information please visit our web site http://www.vensim.com
Ventana Systems UK are one of the partners collaborating in the InCoCo research project, a groundbreaking project that will enable companies to deliver integrated service solutions to industry.
The consortium of InCoCo was set up with the sense that a very high degree of complementarity and mutual support in respect of research activities and industrial goals can be achieved. This way, an interlinking of the various expertises intrinsic to the InCoCo consortium will provide top-quality results for the benefit of the industry and consumers in the European market area.
European, globally acting industrial firms from the manufacturing and IT sector have committed themselves to collaborate and to invest a substantial amount of human and financial resources in order to develop sustainable service integration in the manufacturing supply chain.
The challenge for increasingly global acting supply chains and service providers is to integrate and synchronize the services from external providers into the existing and continuously evolving networks and to successfully measure, control and evaluate the performance of these joint activities, both at the operational and strategic levels.
To facilitate collaboration between service and supply chain (SSC) partners, InCoCo aims to develop novel coordination procedures, enrich the frameworks for integrated measure of performances and finally develop decision support tools for this industry sector. Further, InCoCo will incorporate the results in these domains into a new pioneering framework for the development and management of the integrated SSC oriented production systems. InCoCo's innovative vision is to fill this gap by integrating service processes into new S-SCOR model. For further information on the InCoCo research project, click here.
The Whole Systems Partnership (www.thewholesystem.co.uk) has recently completed projects for public sector clients in the UK helping them to consider the implications of new policies and to understand the complexities of their environment. In the Scottish Borders we have enabled the local health service to work through the implications of a proposed new capital spend to develop an Emergency Care Centre. The model development has enabled a wide range of new behaviours to be explored in the context of their impact on the proposed changes, therefore making explicit the key elements relating to overall affordability of the scheme.
In an English County Council WSP have developed an innovative approach to forecasting need for long term care (residential and nursing homes) in the context of local service developments. New models of care are emerging as a result. Elsewhere we have helped a Strategic Health Authority covering a population of approximately one and a half million to model and therefore cost the potential impact of new drugs for advanced forms of eye disease.
WSP is also in advanced discussions with another Strategic Health Authority to develop a modelling tool that will link service improvement to workforce requirements. This will build on national work in the UK to identify the shape of a ‘productive team’ in the delivery of healthcare and local work to identify service improvement pathways.
The company is growing steadily and building on its strategic partnership with isee systems to develop new and innovative ways of harnessing the power of SD in the UK Public Sector. A new full time member of staff will join the team in September 2007 to support and deliver on current commitments across our consultancy business and we are looking forward to building on the existing success and reputation of the company.
WSP also continue to deliver a wide range of strategy and partnership development projects for clients across the health and social care sector. In a period of growth we have sought to ensure continued high quality and high added value in our work and have recently published the ‘WSP Distinctives’ on our web-site.
John Wiley & Sons are proud to be the publisher of System Dynamics Review on behalf of the System Dynamics Society. Wiley was founded in New York in 1807, so this year sees us marking the company's bicentennial.
We congratulate the System Dynamics Society on reaching the significant milestones of its 25th Annual Conference and in particular the 50th anniversary of the founding of the field.The major news for Wiley was our acquisition at the start of this year of the whole of Blackwell Publishing. Blackwell Publishing’s program is now being merged with Wiley’s global scientific, technical, and medical business. The merged imprint – Wiley-Blackwell – is now the largest of the three businesses of John Wiley & Sons, Inc.; its other divisions are Professional & Trade, and Higher Education.
Delivering courses and programs in System Dynamics to students around the world – WPI is proud to have a role in furthering the awareness and knowledge of the power of systems dynamics through its online educational offerings, Ph.D. program, and visiting scholars.
The vast majority of WPI’s students are professionals who are interested in using the power of system modeling to enhance the decision making in their companies and organizations. System dynamics is the tool which will allow them to further their company’s position in the market place – the means by which they can make valuable resource decisions for their organization.
95% of our online students are in mid to upper level, professional positions and many hold masters and doctorate degrees in other areas. They are employed by a wide variety of industries including technology, pharmaceutical, natural resources, military, government, and consulting. Examples of companies that are represented by our students include BAE Systems, EMC Corp, Cisco, Sun, isee systems, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Bristol-Meyers Squibb, General Mills, Plum Creek Timber, ConocoPhillips, NASA, Argonne National Labs, and many more. These students realize the importance to their careers and their organizations for them to set aside precious time to dedicate to furthering their knowledge and expertise of system dynamics.
With system dynamics being embraced around the world, online students study while working and living in a number of countries. The course work is available through the Internet 24 hours per day so time zones and work schedules are meaningless to their weekly studies. WPI students come from over twenty-five countries including Brazil, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, and the U.S.
Ten different graduate level courses are offered through the Internet. Students can enroll in one course, a four course graduate certificate program, or a ten course Master of Science degree. Further information is available at www.online.wpi.edu, by emailing [email protected], or calling 508-831-6789 in the U.S.
Amber Blocks Ltd.
Atkins Nutritionals, Inc.
Bolide Pty. Ltd.
CRA International, Inc.
Decisio Consulting Inc.
Decision Dynamics, Inc.
Delft University of Technology
Forio Business Simulations
ISSS International Society for the Systems Sciences
Lane Press of Albany
Ledet Enterprises, Inc.
Mohaseboon - Financial and Business Consultancies
Murphy-Hall & Company, CPA's
National Business Promotions, Inc.
Northwater Capital Management, Inc.
PAR Group, Radboud
Pearson Education, Bob Cavana, Kambiz Maani, Norman Mailer
Pegasus Communication, Inc.
Powersim Software (Norway)
Project Performance International
Raytheon Integrated Defense
Reinsurance Tecnologico de Monterey (ITEMS)
Edward Roberts (MIT) and Nancy Roberts (Lesley University)
Sandia National Laboratories
Toshiro Shimada, Japanese System Dynamics Chapter
System Dynamics Group, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
System Dynamics Group, University of Bergen
SoL, Society for Organizational Learning
Cindy and John Sterman
Swiss ReInsurance Company
University of Salford, Centre for OR and Applied Statistics
All past newsletters, back to 1988, are available on the Society’s “Publications” webpage.
The System Dynamics Newsletter is published four times a year by the System Dynamics Society.
Editors: Qifan Wang, Roberta L. Spencer and Navid Ghaffarzadegan
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