Abstract for: Modelling the Complex Dynamics of Public Opinion Propagation in Micro-Blogging
The purpose of this paper is to attempt to analyze the propagation of public opinion in micro-blogging. We proposed an Mb-PR (Micro-blogging read-post) model based on SEIR, one well-known diffusion model and presented its system of equations. We carried out a global qualitative analysis of the model with latent and constant recruitment, then studied the existence and stability of the public opinion vanishing and prevailing equilibrium points. An empirical study of the model was conducted using data automatically collected from a typical case on Sina Weibo, a micro-blogging platform with the largest number of registered users and active users in China. Simulation results showed that our model can fit data in reality and thus verified the feasibility and reliability of the model. Further studies of the model illustrated the impact different management strategies have on the propagation of public opinion. Implications of effective control measures from the government’s point of view were then discussed.