Abstract for: Technology scenario planning with system multi methodology: In the Petrochemical Research and Technology Company
This paper contains a practical case for using two systems approaches together to achieve reliable and comprehensive results. At first, the theoretical and methodological assumptions of soft system methodology and system dynamics are briefly described. Subsequently, particularly in order to capture the essence of the problems that Iranís Petrochemical Research and Technology Company is facing, SSM through using QSEE Superlite software is applied. Therefore a rich picture of the system is depicted in addition to proposing the ideal systemís root definition and its conceptual model. Afterwards, through SD with the help of Vensim PLE, causal loops and dynamic models of two most important functions- technology development and technology commercialization- are presented, models are validated according to structure verification, behavior reproduction, and behavior prediction tests. Additionally, the behavior of the system is analyzed and some scenarios concerning technology development and commercialization in order to improve the system are proposed. The results show that financing in both sectors is a major obstacle in growth and development. Consequently, the scenarios are recommended regarding increasing technology development and particularly technology commercialization through increasing the initiation and completion rates in both sectors. The paper closes with a description of the suggested scenarios.