Abstract for: Time-varying Correlation in System Dynamics: Causal needles in a haystack of correlations
We explore the concept of time-varying correlations in the context of system dynamics models. The fact that correlations between variables change over time is an indication that structural mechanisms are at play and can provide powerful indicators and evidence of changes in the system derived from interventions. The identification of the causal mechanisms underlying time-varying correlation coefficients has potential implications for social scientists and researchers in many domains. We discuss evidence from a public policy domain but the implications are more broadly applicable. Areas such as health, corporate policy, security, and any type of intervention-based study may benefit from the insights derived from this paper.