Abstract for: Population Projection for India – A System Dynamics Approach
Building easy to understand model for demographic projection is the core theme of this work. In this paper, we model India’s demographic growth using a stock and flow approach. Along with a simple four stage model, we present a detailed twelve stage model for India’s population dynamics. The models are designed to incorporate real data points sourced from India’s latest Census data. Population estimates along with a sensitivity analysis are presented here. At the aggregate level, population projections appear to be insensitive to intra-group changes in fertility and mortality rates. However, population projections are found to be quite sensitive to changes in fertility with time. We find that a 10% change in the current fertility rate can change India’s exponentially rising population to a declining population, thereby highlighting the importance of fertility rate in dictating a nation’s destiny. It is, therefore, important for the Government of India to continue promoting family planning measures.