Abstract for: A Quantitative Assessment of Dynamic Intervention-Capacity Effectiveness in the 2014 Ebola Epidemic
The current outbreak of the Ebola Virus (EBOV) is characterized by inadequate intervention capacities. In this theoretical paper, we research what the influence of limitations in the intervention capacity are on the effective reproduction number, and what the effectiveness would be of a more proactive approach in expanding the intervention capacities. We use a transmission model extended with dynamical intervention capacities of isolation, health workers, tracing officers, and eventually vaccines. We generate a set of plausible scenarios explaining the current reported Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) cases taking into account a bandwidth for potential underreporting. We use these scenarios to test the effectiveness of a more proactive approach in extending intervention capacities. We show that a reactive approach in extending intervention capacities leads to under-capacity for isolating EVD cases. This under-capacity can lead to a significant increase in the effective reproduction number, leading to faster transmission of EBOV. A more proactive approach, which takes into account development delays of capacities, the doubling time of the disease, and the factor of potential underreporting of the number of cases, helps in any scenario in limiting the total number of EVD cases and deaths.