Abstract for: Identifying uncertainties in the development of Oil Sands in Nigeria: An exploratory SD Model
The rapid increase of attention and interests in unconventional resources has been attributed to their vast occurrences across the globe; the dwindling reserves of conventional resources, and improvements in technology making their extraction more profitable. The occurrence of oil sands in Nigeria has been known for close to a century with estimated reserves of about 43 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil. This resource however is still not commercially developed despite several attempts made by the government. It is therefore presumed that there are myriad of uncertainties surrounding this development as it is the case with fossil fuel resources especially unconventional like oil sands. The uncertainties may be due to certain factors including technological, environmental and political. In this exploratory (a work-in-progress) study, these uncertainties are identified and examined for the development of oil sands in Nigeria using the system dynamics approach. This study is made possible through the funding received from UNESCO through Organization for Women in Sciences for the Developing World (OWSD) and Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA).