Abstract for: Vensim Calibration and Markov Chain Monte Carlo
In this hands-on workshop we will explore model calibration in Vensim. To get some insight into the fundamentals of the process, we will begin with a discussion of likelihood and hand calibrate a model, using synthetic data. Then we will repeat the process, using the built-in functionality of Vensim. Finally, we will illustrate some advanced techniques: Poisson and Bernoulli distributions that arise with individual or event data, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Bayesian estimation with priors.