Abstract for: Is Travel Restriction the Answer to Liberia’s Ebola Pandemic?
In this project, we model the spread of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia, West Africa using the pandemic model, with population of Liberia at various stages of the disease (susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered) as the stocks, and in relation to various factors that influence the rate of infection of EVD. It is found that travel restriction – the strategy implemented by Liberian government, has not been very effective in curbing the rate of spread of EVD. Modeling this problem using the “Shifting the Burden” archetype, it is shown that the quick-fix to the problem has made it more difficult to achieve the long term goal of eradicating the disease. Finally, we propose to lift the prevalent travel restriction policy and additional measures to further ameliorate the situation, namely increasing government responsiveness to take actions against EVD, implementing the contact tracing system and educating the public. We believe these proposals could help the government to dampen the spread of Ebola virus in the long run.