Abstract for: Uncertainty and System Dynamics
System Dynamics is often used for dealing with dynamically complex issues that are also uncertain. This paper reviews how uncertainty is dealt with in System Dynamics modeling, where uncertainties are located in models, which types of uncertainties are dealt with, and which levels of uncertainty could be handled. Shortcomings of System Dynamics and its practice in dealing with uncertainty are distilled from this review and reframed as opportunities. Potential opportunities for dealing with uncertainty in System Dynamics that are discussed here include (i) dealing explicitly with dicult sorts of uncertainties, (ii) using multi-model approaches for dealing with alternative assumptions and multiple perspectives, (iii) clearly distinguishing sensitivity analysis from uncertainty analysis and using them for dierent purposes, (iv) moving beyond invariant model boundaries, (v) using multi-method approaches, advanced techniques and new tools, and (vi) further developing and using System Dynamics strands for dealing with deep uncertainty.