Abstract for: Diabetes in The Netherlands: Exploratory Modelling and Analysis of a Macro Diabetes System Dynamics Model
Type II Diabetes Mellitus is one of the fastest growing chronic diseases in the western world. This exploratory research provides an insight into the causes for the diabetes prevalence in The Netherlands by performing an Exploratory Modelling and Analysis (EMA) study on an adaptation of an existing macro-level diabetes System Dynamics model. The model used is adapted from the diabetes model by Jones et al. (2006) and a number of policies that are currently considered to be implemented are tested. The analysis shows that high numbers of diabetes patients are caused by high levels of risk of (pre)diabetes for certain groups and diabetes and prediabetes onset. Recommended is more research into narrowing the uncertainty bandwidth of these parameters or to monitor these parameters in Dutch society. The policies as currently proposed, where high risk groups for having prediabetes are determined via a questionnaire and prediabetes patients are offered lifestyle interventions do not have considerable effect. By making these interventions less non-committed, effects of the policy increases considerably in terms of number of diabetes patients and costs, but it requires testing a much larger part of the risk group. Researching whether these high attendances of risk groups should be further researched.