Abstract for: Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of informal caregivers: Simulation Insights
Objectives: Population aging is increasing demands for care from informal family caregivers of older adults. Using Singapore as a case study, this paper aims to provide a better understanding of the effects of the current long-term care (LTC) policy and various alternative policy options on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of older adults. Methods: A model of the LTC system in Singapore was developed using a System Dynamics methodology. The model features several interacting elements that describe essential interdependence and information feedbacks among disabled elderly individuals, primary informal family caregivers, LTC services and policies. Results: Under the current LTC policy, by 2030, 3.6 percent of primary informal family caregivers (0.38 percent of the domestic labor supply) are expected to withdraw from the labor market. Alternative policy options would reduce primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal; however, the number of workers required to scale up LTC services is greater than the number of caregivers who can be expected to return to the labor market.