Abstract for: Simulation of the pension system process development
The article proposes a comprehensive economic-mathematical tools for study and implementation of government programs to develop and reform the pension system of the Russian Federation. These tools allow developing the consolidated scenario oriented on constant growth of pensions in conditions of unfavorable demographic trends, the deficit of the pension fund, the introduction of new institutional forms under transitional economic processes. Dynamic models and possible scenarios are formed by experts using ontologies for conceptualization of simulation models and introducing the models of the balancing interests of different groups. Developed model complex of pension system includes a number of subsystems, such as population, insurers, pension funds, pension legislation, financial market and management companies, which reflect the underlying socio-economic processes. The study considers such aspects of social behavior of insured persons as formation of the individual trajectory of pension insurance, including choosing of management company and retirement age. The model complex is implemented on the basis of a combination of system dynamic and agent-based models, parameterized using regression analysis and the results of expert assessments.