Abstract for: Using Scenario Planning Data in System Dynamics Model Building
The main contribution of this paper is describing a traceable data analysis procedure for modelling scenarios using the results of a simplified Scenario Planning workshop. We first introduce our project where the ultimate goal is to develop a grounded model-based policy discussion tool for the Australian automotive recycling industry. We review current scenario-based model building techniques and highlight their practical gaps and then present the proposed procedure rooted in Qualitative Data Analysis approaches. We show how to update the Causal Loop Diagrams and Stock and Flow models and how to determine scenario conditions thus enabling a clear record of model building. Using an example from a real project, we highlight the main challenges of the procedure that are dealing with data scarcity, estimating new trends for variables, and deciding on the nature of the changes in the simulation models. The paper concludes by arguing how the procedure may benefit system dynamists that require a coherent and structured modelling trail or when it is more feasible to engage the stakeholders in an abbreviated Scenario Planning workshop instead of Group Model Building.