Abstract for: A generalized growth model for strategic analysis
This paper presents an adoption model where the rate of adoption is disaggregated into three components, and feedback paths to each component from three stock variables. The strength and sense of the feedback loops are expressed as elements of a 3x3 matrix easily varied. The model is a generalization of an analysis of growth in a local photovoltaic market (Jones 2008). Informants in that study had a variety of opinions on the net strength and valence of feedback paths incorporating multiple effects. A strategy that depends upon reinforcing feedback (returns to scale, learning curve, get big quick) can be adopted when the mechanism is poorly articulated or poorly understood. This model acts as a framework for analysis of such situations.