Abstract for: Exploring Demographic Shifts: Ageing and Migration in a Deeply Uncertain Dynamically Complex World
Plausible dynamics of a major demographic shift --(societal) ageing-- is studied in this paper, both from a global perspective and from a national perspective. Several economic, political and social implications of ageing and ageing-related demographic shifts are explored using System Dynamics models as scenario generators for Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis. In Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis, a plethora of uncertainties (pertaining to model structures, functions, scenarios, parameters) are used to generate thousands of plausible future scenarios. The dynamic complexity of the resulting `ensemble of future worlds' is analyzed to find leverage points for adaptive policies. The effectiveness of these policies is then tested over the entire ensemble in order to test their robustness. Using this method, the world model is used to explore dynamic and cumulative effects of (societal) ageing, pressures on population structures (e.g. larger shares of aged individuals and large groups of (unemployed) young individuals), migratory flows, labor force expansion/reduction, decreasing societal homogeneity, etc. The national model is used to explore plausible effects on the sustainability of (Dutch) national health and social security systems, the economy, housing sector, et cetera.