Abstract for: BioPOL: biofuel modeling, sensitivity analysis and discussion on biofuel support policies under inherent uncertainties
The aim of this paper is to describe the biofuels model BioPOL, to explain how a Monte Carlo simulation can be applied to it and to illustrate how different biofuel support policies can be analysed. BioPOL was developed and applied within several European projects, among them TRIAS, PREMIA, HOP! and iTREN-2030. It is based on a recursive year by year simulation until 2030. In each year a level of biofuel production is found at which the costs of biofuels equal those of the fossil alternative they substitute, taking into account the feedback loops of the agricultural market and restrictions in the annual growth rates of capacity. However, the development of the biofuel production depends highly on several input parameters which are inherently uncertain. Therefore, we focus in this analysis specifically on the way we deal with this uncertainty. The model delivers detailed outcomes for the different types of biofuels with regard to production capacity and produced volumes, costs and well-to-wheel emissions of greenhouse gases. It considers the main production pathways of biofuels, namely first generation biodiesel with rapeseed and sunflower and first generation ethanol with cereals and sugar beet. Furthermore, it includes advanced 2nd generation pathways from ligno-cellulosic feedstock.