Abstract for: Applying Fuzzy Delphi Method to Select the Variables of a Sustainable Urban System Dynamics Model

A system dynamics model is composed of many variables. These variables simplify complex phenomena and provide a description of a systemís current state or problems. Basic variables that describe the real-world urban development can be established from the elements that make up a cityís different dimensions such as industry product, population growth and vacancy rate. The urban development framework takes a system-based approach by systemizing the cityís internal elements. The systemic variables then provide not only a clear reflection of the interactions between all of the sub-systems but also how they relate to the overall system. It is therefore very important to select the appropriate variables. Most variables of system dynamics models are, however, set up by the designer, served as a subjective and unscientific approach. This study therefore applies the Fuzzy Delphi Method to the selection process of system variables to increase the confidence of the model. This was accomplished by first examining the system relationships as well as the intent and meaning of the sub-system variables to be created. After establishing the criteria for variable selection, an empirical case study was used to devise the evaluation variables for each sub-system.