President of the Chapter
Professor, School of Management
Shanghai, 200433, China
Email: [email protected]
I have several things to report to our society.
First is about the members. The Chinese Chapter has kept running well and normally in the past year. The Chapter has its domestic society - the SD Society of China, and still has about 500 members and 40 society officers, among whom half are full professors. Most of our members are doing teaching and engaged in research works. In addition, 6 new member applicants, who are studying at University of Bergen from China, are applying for international memberships.
Second is about our main activities.
|As we know, China has made great achievements in the past 20 years. The average GDP growth rate was above 10% and even faster in the coastal areas, but many shortcomings also existed.
Putting forward our advice on macro-economy to Central & Local Government. We argued that the economy in China is impossible to keep a very high speed at above 10% for another 30-40 years. Considering the impact of the western economic long wave and its own economic long wave, the high speed growth period will be interrupted within the next 15 years, when it is the end of the 1st decade of new century. In the next century the high speed rate will drop down to about 7%, and the lower speed will be about 5%. The future economic behavior modes will take the ways of including high speed & relatively low speed periods alternatively.
Reporters visited me on May 10th. Our opinion was reported in main news paper "Business News" on May 14th, broadcast in the same morning, spread widely and was reprinted in China through more than 15 local news papers. The mayor of Shanghai enjoyed our idea and asked his secretary to inform me.
|Since late 1996 when our idea on state-owned enterprise reforming was announced by "Business News", it has been broadcast and reprinted by more than 20 local newspapers.
|A news briefing was held in early July 1998 on knowledge-based economy and learning organization.
|A new suggestion on how to set new Shanghai's economic goal in 21st century was submitted to mayor in July, 1998.
|"A Dual Industry SD Model on Economic Growth Study" (published in Chinese Journal)
|"The Theory of Sustainable Development in Hebrew Culture" (Forthcoming)
In summary, I would say that a powerful academic team with about 30 people who have Ph.D major in SD will appear in early of next Millennium.
I believe that System Dynamics will play a more important role in China in the next century!