10th MIT-UAlbany System Dynamics Research Colloquium

 



Time

Presentation

Speaker

9:00

Informal Gathering - Coffee

 

9:45

Welcome and Opening Remarks

Sasha Lubyansky & Tim Quinn

10:00

Uncovering Model Structure: Behavior Relations in Complex Nonlinear Models

Burak Güneralp (Univ of Illinois)

10:45

Dynamic Safety and Risk Management in Complex Socio-Technical Systems

Nicolas Dulac (MIT)

11:30

Transportation Systems Analysis

Maggie Cusack (Albany)

12:15

Lunch

 

13:00

Polio Risk Management after Global Eradication: A Dynamic Decision Analysis

Radboud Duintjer Tebbens (Harvard)

13:45

Participation Decisions in Federal Conservation Programs

Joe Schultz (Cornell)

14:30

The Dynamics of Ethnic Terrorism

Bahadır Akçam (Albany)

15:15

Coffee Break

 

15:30

Dynamics of Resource Sharing

Charlie Lertpattarapong (MIT)

16:15

Understanding the Dynamics of Coastal Resource Management: Exploring Past Experience and Moving Toward an Ecosystem Management Approach

Don Robadue (Albany)

17:00

TBD

TBD

17:45

Closing Remarks

 

18:00

Adjourn

 


Presentation Abstracts

 

Burak Güneralp

Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

 

Uncovering Model Structure: Behavior Relations in Complex Nonlinear Models

 

Nicolas Dulac

Aeronautics and Astronautics

MIT

 

Dynamic Safety and Risk Management in Complex Socio-Technical Systems

The thesis of this research is that new methods of modeling safety and risk are required to handle accidents in complex socio-technical systems.  In particular these methods must be systemic and dynamic as accidents in complex socio-technical systems often result from a slow migration of the entire system to a state of high risk.  To evaluate this hypothesis, we created a model of the current NASA manned space program including the safety engineering, assessment, review, and dynamic decision-making processes as well as the pressures and influences and other risk factors that created the conditions existing prior to the Challenger and Columbia losses and contributing to these accidents.  The goal of the modeling is to determine how to "engineer" lasting improvement. Such modeling and analysis can provide insight into the implications and relationships among the causal factors of the Shuttle accidents and into the long-term effectiveness of various possible changes to improve safety in complex systems.

 

Maggie Cusack

Information Science

University at Albany, SUNY

 

Transportation Systems Analysis

 

Radboud Duintjer Tebbens

Health Policy and Management

Harvard University School of Public Health

 

Polio Risk Management after Global Eradication: A Dynamic Decision Analysis

 

Joseph Shultz

Applied Economics and Management

Cornell University

 

Participation Decisions in Federal Conservation Programs

Agricultural policy-makers continue to model program participation decisions using unrealistic assumptions based on expected utility theory. Unexpected participation behavior in a recent federal conservation programs has demonstrated the need for alternative decision-making assumptions and modeling techniques. A more realistic explanation is needed to understand the complexities of farmers’ decision making processes. The objective of this research project is to model the participation decisions of a representative NY dairy farmer in order to gain insight for conservation program design and implementation. This model includes the effects of bio-physical processes on farm profitability, farmers’ ability to gather and utilize information, and the subsequent role of incentives on farmers’ decisions to participate. Insights from the model will be used to make policy recommendations for future iterations of conservation programs.

 

 

Bahadır Akçam

Information Science

University at Albany, SUNY

 

The Dynamics of Ethnic Terrorism

Despite the fact that much of recent terror is ethno-nationally based, little attention has been paid to systematically explaining ethnic violence.  We propose to build on the work done by the Minorities at Risk Project (MAR) and apply the model and the data to the issue of ethnic terror using systems dynamics approach. While there has been important work done using MAR to explore ethnic violence as a base using statistics and qualitative analysis (for examples of both see Gurr (2000) there has been no work exploring ethnic terrorism specifically and none that has exploited systems dynamics as an analytical tool. The application of a systems dynamics approach should help us go beyond some of the limitations of statistical analysis to explore how government policy and ethno-nationalist terrorism feed of each other in a cycle of violence, discrimination and repression.

 

Charlie Lertpattarapong

Engineering Systems Division

MIT

 

Dynamics of Resource Sharing

Supply chain dynamic instability has been studied by academics in various fields such as economics, operations management, system dynamics, and engineering. Unstable dynamic behaviors include demand cyclicality, oscillations in production and inventory levels, demand amplifications, and the bullwhip effect. While most previous work has focused on the dynamic behaviors of one supply chain, the purpose of this paper is to the study dynamic behaviors (especially oscillations) of two supply chains coupled through a shared capacity (such as material, production, etc.). When a shared capacity resource is constrained, the resource manager needs to reallocate its capacity to serve downstream customers who may not receive the capacity amount of their original requests. The model and analyses illustrate that this reallocation can influence the phases, amplitudes, and frequencies of both coupled supply chains’ oscillatory behaviors.

 

Donald Robadue

Information Science

University at Albany, SUNY

 

Understanding the Dynamics of Coastal Resource Management: Exploring Past Experience and Moving Toward an Ecosystem Management Approach

System dynamics concepts and methods are rarely referenced in the field of coastal resources management, even though coastal systems and decision-making are dynamically complex and the SD literature offers a rich and relevant body of theory, practice and models. Recent work in the theory of ecosystem management calls for the use of modeling and is becoming of increasing interest to coastal managers.  A simple stock and flow model of coastal management is presented that is drawn from the legislative design of one of the oldest and more successful U.S. state programs, Rhode Island’s Coastal Resources Management Program.  This model produces several dynamic behaviors familiar to coastal managers.  The results are compared in general terms with data from the 35 year Rhode Island experience, and utilized to suggest approaches for the state program as it enters the new century as well as offer guidance for fledgling coastal programs in developing countries.


Colloquium Attendees

 

Name

Family Name

E-mail

Organization

Status/Title

Allen

Boorstein

[email protected]

Amber Blocks

Executive

Bradley

Morrison

[email protected]

Brandeis

Professor

Chester

Labedz

[email protected]

Boston College

Ph.D. Student

Liping

Duan

[email protected]

Cornell

Ph.D. Student

Gregory

Lawrence

[email protected]

Cornell

Researcher

Paul

Newton

[email protected]

Cornell

Professor

Joseph

Schultz

[email protected]

Cornell

M.S. Student

Radboud

Duintjer Tebbens

[email protected]

Harvard

Ph.D. Student

Kimberly

Thompson

[email protected]

Harvard

Professor

Jason

Black

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

Gökhan

Doğan

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

Nicolas

Dulac

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

Andjelka (Angie)

Kelic

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

Chalermmon (Charlie)

Lertpattarapong

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

Daniel

McCarthy

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

James (Jim)

McFarland

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

Nicholas

McKenna

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

Timothy

Quinn

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

Hazhir

Rahmandad

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

Nelson

Repenning

[email protected]

MIT

Professor

Katherine

Steel

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

John

Sterman

[email protected]

MIT

Professor

Jeroen

Struben

[email protected]

MIT

Ph.D. Student

Thomas

Corbet

[email protected]

Sandia Nat'l Lab

Researcher

Rashad

Raynor

[email protected]

Sandia Nat'l Lab

Researcher

Bahadır

Akçam

[email protected]

SUNY-Albany

Ph.D. Student

David

Andersen

[email protected]

SUNY-Albany

Professor

Maggie

Cusack

[email protected]

SUNY-Albany

Ph.D. Student

Michael

Deegan

[email protected]

SUNY-Albany

Ph.D. Student

Hyunjung

Kim

[email protected]

SUNY-Albany

Ph.D. Student

Alexander (Sasha)

Lubyansky

[email protected]

SUNY-Albany

Ph.D. Student

George

Richardson

[email protected]

SUNY-Albany

Professor

Donald

Robadue

[email protected]

SUNY-Albany

Ph.D. Student

Ryan

Taylor

[email protected]

SUNY-Albany

Ph.D. Student

Charles (Skuk)

Jones

[email protected]

UMass-Boston

Ph.D. Student

Burak

Güneralp

[email protected]

University of Illinois

Ph.D. Student