Abstract for: How Economic Policies Profile Industrial Cycles and Long-term Trends (an Application to the USA)
Under the danger of circular stagnation, endemic for the monopoly capitalism, the US financial capital and the State have been designing a revival policy, the essence of which is not yet presented in detail publicly. This article responds to this gap. The original economic-mathematical model of capitalist reproduction, maintained by the law of surplus value, is upgraded. This allows comparing impacts of economic policies on industrial cycles and on long-term trends in the US economy. The inertia scenario I and mobilizing scenario II anticipate regular repetition of over-production and paroxysms. In 2017, the crisis will probably start, opening the next industrial cycle ending in 2024 in scenario I or in 2025 in scenario II. Internationalized capitalism is at a dangerous crossroads, on the eve of the explosion of its contradictions. This social mode of production is entering a new period of over-production when sound economic policy becomes even more critical. Based on the US macroeconomic data mainly for 1979–2016, computer simulation runs for a later period (through 2031) exhibit how policy optimization in 2017 and afterwards could alleviate severity of the next crises and improve long-run performance of the US economy compared to the inertia evolution.