REPLY Limits to Growth Plan B (SD7016)

[SDMAIL Tom Fiddaman]

Posted by  Tom Fiddaman <tom at ventanasystems.com>

Jack and others have noted that managing the globe involves two subproblems:
1. figuring out the problem (e.g., are there limits, what are they, when 
do they become binding)
2. convincing others to act (hard when others may be uninformed or 
predatory)

I'd argue that there's a third problem, which we've tended to gloss 
over: 3. figuring out how to act. For the climate problem, for example, 
this is nontrivial. Is it better to allocate property rights in the 
atmosphere and start trading, or to implement a carbon tax, or start a 
social movement, or ... ? More practically, as I see it, places like 
California that are committed (at least on paper) to significant GHG 
emissions reductions are trying to solve a big messy global problem with 
regulatory approaches that were designed to handle fairly localized 
problems (like criteria air pollutants). Policies under development 
leave much of the problem unaddressed, and could prove 
counterproductive. It's a shame to waste strong support on measures that 
are doomed to fail (as zero-emissions vehicle mandates and electric 
power deregulation did). Then again, perhaps the reason current measures 
don't go far enough is that #2 has not really been accomplished, so 
strong support is an illusion. If so, then it would be useful to 
recognize that the emperor has no clothes, i.e. that current policies 
are a start, not an answer.

I've been working with refiners and agencies on alternative fuel issues. 
California has policies underway to control things like vehicle fuel 
efficiency and fuel carbon intensity (none of which tackles the 
underlying growth drivers, as Jay pointed out). The fuels/energy/air 
quality crowd perceives that technical options have somewhat limited 
potential, and that to achieve aggressive goals in the long run will 
require changes in driving habits and land use. I've been wondering 
whether the transport/transit crowd in the state shared the same vision, 
because transport agencies have been conspicuously absent from the 
energy/emissions conversation so far. On Tuesday, I got the answer at a 
presentation from a regional transport agency: the region is planning to 
accommodate a massive increase in driving, and counting on technology to 
somehow accomplish emissions reductions. Clearly the left and right 
hands have some coordination to do. Even worse, at least one member of 
the audience expressed horror at the very idea that goods previously 
regarded as free (freeways) might become costly.

It seems to me that two paradigm shifts are needed: one recognizing 
limits and driving forces, and one that changes the approach to solving 
the problem. Most current policies strike me as instances of 
proportional control: identify a problem, and push locally against it to 
the extent that it annoys victims. The problem may subside, but never 
disappears (for then the will to control also vanishes). For problems 
involving long-term stocks (e.g. atmospheric carbon, oil depletion), 
integral control is needed: ratchet up the stringency of policy until a 
goal is achieved. Californians might find such a control paradigm shift 
rather liberating: if, for example, the tax structure were shifted to 
adaptive control of bads (not goods), they wouldn't need so many 
micromanaging rules telling industries and individuals what to do (and 
inadvertently inhibiting them from change in general).

Evolutionary pressure may work against such a paradigm shift. Any 
region, firm, or individual with a sensible resource management policy, 
for example, appears less profitable or successful in the short run. Any 
time there are difficulties attributing long run success to such 
policies (i.e., all the time), selection pressure will disfavor the 
sensible behavior. This is, perhaps, the fundamental reason that #2 is 
the hardest part of achieving sustainability.

Tom


****************************************************
Tom Fiddaman
Ventana Systems, Inc.
Posted by  Tom Fiddaman <tom at ventanasystems.com>
posting date  Fri, 09 May 2008 09:36:23 -0600