REPLY Models, Problems and Systems (SD7013)

[SDMAIL Jack Harich]

Posted by  Jack Harich <register at thwink.org>

Kim.

If "people commonly want models to help understand and better-manage 
something" - Then that is the problem the model is solving. It's just 
thinking at a higher level than specific, bird-in-the-hand problems. 
It's solving a general class of expected problems, as well as 
opportunities, rather than a single issue that's already arrived.

A classic example of this approach may be seen in the following quote, 
from one of the most successful cases in the history of modeling:

"Large oil companies have long been big users of scenario building. The 
popularity is often attributed to one early success. In the 1970's, a 
planning group at Shell Oil generated scenarios that could affect the 
price of oil, an uncertainty important to many of the company's 
projects. One scenario was that prices would remain stable. Another was 
that OPEC would demand much higher prices. As the latter scenario was 
developed, it became increasingly clear to the team that the scenario 
was not just plausible, it was highly likely. However, when the team 
warned upper management, no changes in company decisions could be 
observed. So, the team went one step further. They described the logical 
ramifications of the scenario in terms that leadership would understand 
— it meant slow growth for the industry and the possibility that OPEC 
countries would take over Shell's oil fields. When the Arab oil embargo 
did occur in 1973, only Shell was reasonably prepared."

From: http://www.prioritysystem.com/reasons4b.html

Also, I have a small problem with the terminology in your post. As soon 
as a problem solver starts thinking in terms of a "system-wide" model, 
their work begins to drift away from being a "problem-oriented" model. 
This is the danger the "don't model a system, model a problem" principle 
warns us against.

Perhaps there are better terms?

Jack
Posted by  Jack Harich <register at thwink.org>
posting date  Thu, 08 May 2008 09:54:07 -0400