REPLY Definition of root cause (SD6773)

[SDMAIL Jack Homer]

Posted by  "Jack Homer" <jhomer at comcast.net>

I don't see how Jack Harich's emphasis on root causes is helpful.  
Trying to find the "true" original or root causes in complex social 
systems (unlike engineered systems) is a fruitless endeavor, because 
when it comes to human behavior among multiple stakeholders there is no 
end to the forces at play. The best we can do is to peel the onion of 
causation to get a few more layers down.  The way we do this is with 
models that help us understand why current policy approaches are not 
working or may lead to problems in the future, and why certain other 
approaches may hold more promise.

Such models need to be able to reproduce the problem and plausibly 
explain why it is occurring.  I believe Mr. Harich is wrong to minimize 
the importance of this step in the process, a step which is more often 
than not the key to identifying more effective policy.  I have 
previously described this process of scientific investigation and 
discovery in modeling; see "Why We Iterate", SD Review 1996.

Mr. Harich is under the impression that the Urban Dynamics model was 
somehow more insightful and penetrating than the World3/World Dynamics 
model.  I have argued previously that both of these models produced 
striking conclusions because of their artful weaving together of key 
feedback structures and empirical observations and evidence; see 
"Structure, Data, and Compelling Conclusions: Notes from the Field", SD 
Review 1997.  Both models used the some process of inquiry, both peeled 
the onion equally deep, and both delivered compelling conclusions that 
altered the policy debates on urban decline and on global development.  
They did not attempt to peel the onion to its center, which is 
impossible, but only deep enough to reveal underlying forces--supported 
by the evidence at hand--that could help policymakers and the general 
public act with greater foresight.

- Jack Homer
Posted by  "Jack Homer" <jhomer at comcast.net>
posting date  Mon, 3 Mar 2008 09:45:27 -0500