REPLY Society Strategy Development (SD7095)

[SDMAIL Richard.Dudley]

Posted by  <Richard.Dudley at attglobal.net>

The XXX list that Kim presents seems to me to be a list of _indicators_ that
a field (or profession) is in demand.   It does not tell us why it is in
demand.  

An easy way to focus the discussion is to use the 'roadblock' approach, and
ask: 

=> Why doesn't system dynamics already command this level of respect? 
=> Why hasn't SD already created the indicated (by the XXXs) level of
demand?

The resulting list of answers (with due attention to future changes) can
provide the TARGETS for strategy development  (to overcome Y we need to do
Z).

My starting list (my own impressions of what some other people think.... for
the sake of stimulating focused discussion): 

Factors Limiting the Wider Use and Value of System Dynamics

1) System dynamics is poorly defined.  Even within the
field/profession/methodology itself.  Some people seem to assume it has
something to do with sustainability.  Others assume it is a tool for
business management.  Is it a philosophy?  It is a approach to analysis?
Nobody seems to know what system dynamics is.

2) System dynamics tries to be everything to everyone.  It's so easy that
children can do it.  It's so hard you have to spend years studying for your
PhD.   Wow! cool!  Everything is interconnected!   But what's this stuff
about Eigen values?  It's a way of thinking about the world - Yes, but could
you be more specific?

3) There are a lot of computer based approaches for doing sophisticated
analyses (agents, spatial, visual simulations etc) and analysts are often
expected to use the "newest" technique.  In some circles SD in not
considered a serious approach.

4) System dynamics is insufficiently coherent to do what it attempts - to
provide a interdisciplinary platform for addressing complex problems.
(related to number 1+2).

5) Among modelers, SD has a reputation for being imprecise, as well as
'deterministic'.  SD is just one of many possible simulation approaches, and
these impressions limit its wider use.

6) On the other hand... easy-to-use software has created the impression that
SD is easy to learn in a few days...  just another trick to learn in a
workshop.   This has degraded the opinion of SD, and has also helped the
dissemination/publication of poorly structured models further weakening the
reputation of the field.   Many users of the software have little or no SD
training.   

7) The special interest groups of the SD Society have fractured an already
small organization, but have not (yet?) made a sufficiently large impact on
other organizations to which members of the SIGs belong.... because their
numbers in those organizations are too small.

8) Because SD is not widely accepted it is not widely used. Because it is
not widely used it is not widely accepted.

9) ? ...

So strategy can focus on overcoming these roadblocks (.... if the above, and
other, statements are 'correct' impressions).

Note: I do not think time since establishment of SD is an issue.  A number
of other difficult and important fields have arisen since the start of
system dynamics (e.g. various fields in biotechnology and computer science),
and are now prominent.  

Note:  Another indicator for the XXX list is: In boardrooms and faculty
meetings there are heated discussions concerning which department or
division will get the honor of housing the system dynamics team!

_____________________________
        Richard G. Dudley
Posted by  <Richard.Dudley at attglobal.net>
posting date  Wed, 25 Jun 2008 09:34:26 +0700