REPLY Society Strategy Development (SD7079)

[SDMAIL Wehrenberg, Stephen]

Posted by  "Wehrenberg, Stephen" <Stephen.B.Wehrenberg at uscg.mil>

Peter Luttik wrote: 

"Maybe we should start focusing on why the structures have been working so 
well for so long - a history of social evolution.   And seek to understand 
why change resistance is actually often a good thing - what its function is."

I've been researching the issue of "change management" for some time, and have 
an evolving theory that plays to the challenge Peter poses.  

Many change theorists (Kotter, et. al.) posit that most efforts to change fail 
because of something they term "resistance to change" on the part of those who 
would change.  Many have also suggested that "fear of the unknown" is the root 
cause of that resistance.  I think that ignores the real psychology of change.  
Envision a future state represented by a framed picture.  Fear of the unknown 
would look like an empty picture frame.  Of course that wouldn't be a rational 
fear at all (fear of nothing?).  Instead, we tend to fill up that frame with 
our worst fears.  We project the worst case onto the blank canvas, and that 
image then generates fear (fear of that which we already fear) and resistance.  
Thus what makes change in an organization so difficult is that everyone has 
their own worst case to project into that frame.  

These days I teach my graduate students and change managers alike that when 
contemplating a major change they should create the positive side of that 
picture of the future state first so that at least part of the image will 
exist before the "subjects" get a chance to fill it with the worst case.  
In other words, tell a compelling story that describes the future state in 
realistic, not utopian, terms, and that will capture the collective interests 
and hopes of the participants.  

Assuming this theory has some merit (much testing remains to be done, of course) 
how might it have come to pass that we behave this way?  I argue that there is 
real survival value to fearing that which we cannot or do not understand.  
Assume Australopithecus wandering around the savannah.  From behind a clump of 
bush he hears a sound.  He cannot identify the sound, and assumes that it 
represents a threat.  He may project a carnivore or other boogeyman as the 
threat and act accordingly.  The Australopithecus who treats the unknown as a 
threat is more likely to survive than the one who exhibits naïve curiosity.  If 
this is so, then the practice of assigning threat to every unknown would be 
selected for, and present itself in interesting but not unpredictable ways 
today.  

Of course in all my reading of the literature of sustainability, we usually see 
the worst case presented first, then as an afterthought suggest that if we act, 
the worst case need not obtain.  Perhaps we have been doing it backwards all 
along.  Perhaps this suggests that we need to describe a desirable future state 
first, along the many dimensions that we usually see raised as objections (it 
will kill the economy; everyone will be out of work; the costs of carbon 
mitigation are prohibitive; let the market solve the problem; etc.).  If I had 
all the time in the world, I would do something to identify key stakeholder 
groups (decision makers, influencers), figure out what their "stakes" are, and 
then craft a story that improves their lot while solving the problem of 
sustainability.  Once the story is firmly imbedded in the culture, one could 
begin to decompose that future state (What would have to happen for that 
condition to exist?  And what would have to happen before that?  !

 And before that?  And that means that the next thing we should do -- right 
 now -- is _______?) into action steps.  

The key is the collective commitment to the image of the future state--the 
pre-filled picture frame.  

I will be very interested to hear the reactions of this group regarding the 
possibility.  

Collegially,

Steve Wehrenberg
Posted by  "Wehrenberg, Stephen" <Stephen.B.Wehrenberg at uscg.mil>
posting date  Mon, 16 Jun 2008 09:49:29 -0400