REPLY Society Strategy Development (SD7152)

[SDMAIL Brian Crowe]

Posted by  Brian Crowe <brian_crowe at i-worx.com>

I have been monitoring this thread since I participated in this discussion in
April.  I want to summarize my expectations for the System Dynamics Society with
one analogy based upon my recent experience with a team of civic planners.  But
first, regarding Kim warren's July 5 posting:

> I have synthesised the responses so far [except today's!] - at
> www.gsdoffice.co.uk/isdc-strategy.zip is a pictorial mind-map and a Word
document
> that is best viewed in Outline form so you can collapse and expand sections
and
> subsections.

This is a fascinating summary of this discussion.  It reveals something of the
complex nature of establishing a strategy in a community of experts with
significantly differing priorities.  Thank you Kim for taking the time to record
this result for us to see.   It says a lot!

A brief story - I recently met with City Manager staff in my small city to talk
about how obvious placement of a small number of video cameras in neighborhoods
might reduce crime throughout the city.  I pulled out my laptop and displayed a
simple system dynamics model that showed a video camera to be about (certainly
within an order of magnitude) as effective as a police officer on patrol in the
neighborhood in reducing home burglaries.  The city manager staff member pulled
out his HP-12C financial calculator and had net present value and return on
investment calculated for a phased deployment of cameras throughout the city -
and had a plan in his head to reduce police staffing levels.  The city manager
staff member failed to account for the potentially changing nature of the city's
crime and failed to account correctly for the ongoing value of the police
officers in the city.  The system dynamics model told a more complete story...  

Twenty-six years ago before that HP-12C financial calculator was invented, this
city manager staff member would have had a more exotic financial background, and
would have come prepared with a pile of finance tables to look at and calculate
from.  Today, the financial expertise and the tools to make many financial
decisions are almost common place and casually employed, but the decisions can
be
flawed because they do not account for the system dynamics-nature of the problem
at hand.  

When we gather at our future party to reflect on System Dynamics
accomplishments,
my hope is that the City Manager staff in my small city has an "HP-1,000,000
System Dynamics Calculator" to aid in their decision making.  I am hopeful that
the Society works to make System Dynamics a generic tool for improved decision
making that is readily accessible and casually used by those who are not
necessarily the experts in the field.  That would be my mission for the System
Dynamics Society - that's a big mission - and a "macro" mission.  My experience
is that a big mission makes for a big success...  

I wish I could be at the Athens conference to talk to many of you face to face -
I hope that everyone who attends has a good "work hard - play hard" experience!

Brian

Brian Crowe
TELE-WORX
2432 Kingsley Dr.
Grand Prairie, TX 75050
Posted by  Brian Crowe <brian_crowe at i-worx.com>
posting date  Tue, 8 Jul 2008 09:46:34 -0500