REPLY Do marginal models marginalize modeling? (SD6736)

[SDMAIL Monte Kietpawpan]

Posted by  Monte Kietpawpan <kietpawpan at yahoo.com>

The lack of formal SD education has been deemed as a reason why
there are too many models that do not meet SD experts' minimum
standard of quality. Here, there is a tendency to restrict the application
of SD to "SD problems"--undesired patterns of change that can be
plotted against time. To other problems, the application is said to yield
"poor-quality models."
 
Taking no formal SD education, in fact, a novice modeler, with only
limited knowledge of SD gained from Road Maps, some introductory
SD textbooks, and some papers in the Review, can develop a useful
model.
 
An example of a useful SD model developed by a novice modeler is
available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9183-5
 
The model may be judged as a poor-quality model if we rest on the
following two criteria:
1) SD must be applied to SD problems, and
2) SD is not about point forecasting
 
Nevertheless, the modeling process provides some new insights,
leads to the modification of a classic law and theory, points out
serious errors in some widely used data sets, provides quite accurate
point predictions, and addesses one of the most important issue in a
coastal system.

Monte Kietpawpan 
Faculty of Environmental Management,
Prince of Songkla University
Posted by  Monte Kietpawpan <kietpawpan at yahoo.com>
posting date  Sat, 9 Feb 2008 06:55:31 -0800 (PST)