REPLY Society Strategy Development (SD6935)

[SDMAIL Bob Cavana]

Posted by  "Bob Cavana" <Bob.Cavana at vuw.ac.nz>

hello Brian,
you raise some interesting points in your email.
i would like to briefly touch on a couple of your points.
 
(1) you ask "Who here is working on "soft" modeling concepts? "
 
You should have a close look at the System Dynamics Review and also the past 
proceedings of the International Conferences of the System Dynamics Society 
http://www.systemdynamics.org/society_activities.htm#PastConfs
 
There you will find some great work from many researchers in the system dynamics 
community working on "soft" modeling concepts.
 
You may also wish to refer to my book with Kambiz Maani, which also incorporates 
soft modeling concepts:
 
Maani, K.E. and Cavana, R.Y.  (2007). Systems Thinking, System Dynamics: 
Managing Change and Complexity. (2nd ed).  Pearson Education NZ (Prentice 
Hall), Auckland. 

(2) you also state: "Real world behaviors inexplicably tend toward certain 
outcomes not unlike "strange attractors" in chaos theory - I don't know how 
to explain this phenomenon with the SD methodology or predict it with a SD 
model very well - it just "happens" in the real world".
 
While i was on research and study leave at the University of Western Sydney, 
Centre for Systemic Development, i worked with a number of colleagues there 
on a project involving systems thinking (qualitative system dynamics) and 
complexity thinking (& theory). We started out with a qualitative system 
dynamics study, but soon realized the complexity of the project required us 
to draw on the tools of complexity theory (including the development of 
attractors). This research is reported in:
 
Woog R, Cavana RY, Roberts R, Packham R, (2006). 'Working at the interface 
between systems and complexity thinking: insights from a market access 
design project for poor livestock producers', Systems Research & 
Behavioural Science, 23, 6, pp. 727-741.

We are carrying on with this line of research but unfortunately progress has
not been to rapid at this stage!
 
I hope these comments and references are helpful.
 
kind regards,
Bob
 
A/Prof Bob Cavana
Reader in System Sciences
Victoria Management School
Victoria university of Wellington
New Zealand
Posted by  "Bob Cavana" <Bob.Cavana at vuw.ac.nz>
posting date  Fri, 18 Apr 2008 08:28:57 +1200