REPLY Society Strategy Development (SD6934)

[SDMAIL Brian Crowe]

Posted by  Brian Crowe <brian_crowe at i-worx.com>

I am focused on problem solving in my business, and System Dynamics 
modeling is just one tool I have in my "toolbox" - sometimes, my most 
valuable tool.

Real world problems are "messy" - I refer to the following as social 
"soft" modeling considerations.  Here is what I face in a nutshell:
- Human factors inputs in the real world are often irrational - I 
approximate these model elements as a combination of random values and 
damped oscillations.
- Real world behaviors inexplicably tend toward certain outcomes not 
unlike "strange attractors" in chaos theory - I don't know how to 
explain this phenomenon with the SD methodology or predict it with a SD 
model very well - it just "happens" in the real world.

SD models illustrate cause and effect - they help in policy formation 
and decision making for my clients, but they don't solve problems.  My 
clients typically ask me, "What is the solution space?"  for a system 
that has been reduced to two or three obvious degrees of freedom.  From 
my perspective, a goal seeking or optimization process would be highly 
valuable to develop and refine in the SD methodology and in available 
software tools.

If the Society could focus on these elements in its future work, SD 
models would become more useful to solve Big, real world problems with.  
Who here is working on "soft" modeling concepts?  How about optimization 
and goal-seeking?  I think this is useful ground for future work.

My thoughts from a practitioner point of view -

Brian Crowe
President, TELE-WORX
Posted by  Brian Crowe <brian_crowe at i-worx.com>
posting date  Wed, 16 Apr 2008 10:02:38 -0500