REPLY Society Strategy Development (SD6924)

[SDMAIL Brian Crowe]

Posted by  Brian Crowe <brian_crowe at i-worx.com>

I am an engineer and a professional consultant to senior management of 
companies in the telephone industry.  My clients ask me a number of 
highly complicated technical questions, and invariably they ask me what 
the long term financial impact of a technical or business process 
decision based upon my technical recommendations is likely to be.  My 
answers to the later flavor of question depend heavily on creating and 
demonstrating a dynamic system model.  My clients do not fully 
appreciate a dynamic system model, but they invariably believe many (but 
not all, and sometimes not even most) aspects of what a model reveals - 
they usually grasp the sensitivity analysis elements.  There is clearly 
value in a proven methodology and well honed tools, but fine tools have 
only limited value until they are used to solve relevant problems...  I 
think that we are being asked to identify "big" problems to use SD to 
solve.

Before I ramble a bit, I want to acknowledge many constructive and well 
thought contributions to this thread of discussion.  Rather than cite 
and quote each one, let me just say that I have read every post, they 
are all thoughtful, and many of us here are on common ground.  
Politicians and zealous advocates frequently dance around their issues 
without quantifiable tools to demonstrate the benefits they are striving 
for.  Here are four questions - problems begging for SD solutions to 
provide credible direction to governments, universities and corporations:

1) Are governments and corporations investing prudently in research 
today?  What is the "critical mass" of investment necessary?  I believe 
that too little in total is invested by most National governments, and 
many individual grants and investments are inadequate to be effectively 
utilized for the stated purpose aside from paying salaries and 
incrementally expanding labs.

What level of Government investment in research is optimal - what 
percent of GDP per researcher is optimum, for example?  What absolute 
size of grant award or investment is optimal for a certain scale of 
problem space in a certain phase of its solution?  What ratio of award 
to universities vs. university-industry collaborations vs. established, 
unaffiliated corporations is optimal?  What is the optimum ratio of 
initial awards vs. awards based on a measure of past progress?

2) Will the current objectives of medical research benefit the global 
economy in the long term?  It may come to pass that when you (or your 
social system) run out of money and can no longer afford comprehensive 
medical services, well, you die.  In the mean time, you are unemployed 
and unemployable for a potentially significant and growing percent of 
your lifetime, and a substantial and growing portion of your savings may 
be spent in the process of living what may become an undesirable quality 
of life for an extended period of time.

There are a great many tangential issues here - almost too many to 
list.   What is the optimum retirement age, and how does one quantify 
"optimum"?  What is the optimum lifespan, and again, how does one 
quantify optimum?  What is the optimum level of healthcare before and 
after retirement (and how to quantify that)?  What are the optimum 
ratios of healthcare that is preventive vs. proactive vs. reactive?  
What are optimum levels of investment in medical research?  What is the 
impact of consuming individual savings and National tax revenue when it 
is dedicated to healthcare in lieu of some unrelated investment for 
other purposes?  Is there a detrimental micro (local) or macro (global) 
social strain between medical services "haves" and the "have nots" that 
could lead to unstable societies and civil and global conflict?

3) Are conventional intellectual property concepts such as patents still 
beneficial to the global economy in either the short term or the long 
term today? I believe that the current patent systems are broken and 
need to be largely redefined.

What is the optimum lifetime for a utility patent in a highly technical 
area such as bioengineering or nanotechnology?  What period of IP right 
provides the greatest total benefit to the patent holder and to 3rd 
parties exploiters?  Is this lifetime different for different technology 
areas?  What is the impact of unexploited (warehoused) patents that tend 
to stymie commercialization by third parties either for fear of 
infringement of from suits brought for financial damages due to 
infringement?  Is there a benefit to administratively "expire" an 
unexploited patent, and what demonstrates a tangible exploit, and in 
what period of time?  Is there a benefit to a real, global patent system?

4) What is the likely impact of the growing cost of hydrocarbon-based 
energy on future global economic growth?  What is the best strategy to 
offset hydrocarbon reliance with other energy sources?  I am sure that 
no one really knows...

Is there a critical cost for a unit of power above which global 
economies are likely to  contract in the near term?  Is there a critical 
rate of cost increase for a unit of power beyond which global economies 
are likely to contract in the near term?  Is there an optimum 
replacement rate of alternative energy sources for hydrocarbon energy 
sources? What is the optimum mix of energy sources for some specific set 
of consumers?  What are the most valuable reduction strategies, and how 
does one measure the value?  Reuse strategies?  Recycling strategies?  
How do these strategies vary by country or region?  How do these 
strategies impact the accumulation of greenhouse gases and other 
pollutants?  What is the relationship between global warming, global 
economic growth and global quality of life.

These problems are like "onions" - there are layers upon layers of 
detail to model and analyze.  These problems all require a model to 
determine some point of optimization according to a set criteria that 
may not be broadly accepted or even identifiable today, and the criteria 
may not be uniformly held in society.  It is my view that SD is a prime 
methodology to answer these questions, and I think that these four 
questions are examples of vital questions to answer in the coming two 
decades if the world is to be a better place for most of us to live in - 
and many of us to retire in...

Brian Crowe
President, TELE-WORX
Posted by  Brian Crowe <brian_crowe at i-worx.com>
posting date  Sun, 13 Apr 2008 09:10:15 -0500