REPLY SD Thought Problem (SD6905)

[SDMAIL Ulrey, Michael L]

Posted by  "Ulrey, Michael L" <michael.l.ulrey at boeing.com>

Here is a link to an amusing discussion of the "Bus Paradox" (which I
first encountered in Feller's "Probability Theory and Its Applications
(Vol II) many years ago). The bus "paradox" is a little different than
what Bill has described, in that the bus arrival times are randomly
distributed, but I think the lessons to be learned are probably the same
as in the example Bill recalls. Furthermore, this "paradox" is included
in the larger context of asking the question, "Why do things seem to
come in threes?". The author derives his conclusions from known results
in queuing theory, and does not mention SD directly (although the
author's company is called "Performance Dynamics"!). It would make a
good exercise for the reader to formulate the problem(s) in an SD
context, and see what sorts of simulated results occur.

http://www.teamquest.com/resources/gunther/display/2/index.htm

Enjoy!
Mike

Michael L. Ulrey
Air Traffic Management  
The Boeing Co.
Posted by  "Ulrey, Michael L" <michael.l.ulrey at boeing.com>
posting date  Thu, 10 Apr 2008 12:55:20 -0700