REPLY Society Strategy Development (SD6903)

[SDMAIL Kim Warren]

Posted by  "Kim Warren" <Kim at strategydynamics.com>

Thanks everyone for the replies received so far - folk are clearly
giving the issue some serious thought. 
There seems some reluctance, though, to address the question as posed,
as Jack does well with his suggestion 'to have developed the ability to
reliably solve large pressing social problems.' Rather we are getting a
lot of debate about whether it's the right question. 
To recap, the basic question concerned what observable, measurable
indicators you think would cause friends of SD to have a party
celebrating its success in say 20 years from now. I've been at this
strategy-business for more years than I care to remember, and one thing
is clear - if you don't know where you are heading, it's impossible to
design a path [or paths] and course[s] of action to get there.  
What makes that tricky here is the vast diversity of domains in which SD
does or could make an impact, so lots of sub-groups have their own
perfectly valid aspirations. Hence the canvassing of as wide a view as
possible of the kinds of success outcomes that would make people want a
party. I didn't want to give examples for fear of constraining
responses, but perhaps if I go wide enough ? ... here are some
top-of-head examples:
- all school-leavers can explain, and give useful examples of
stock-and-flow situations, reinforcing and balancing feedback
- most people can answer correctly the question 'If we cut use of fossil
fuels by 10%, greenhouse gas levels will [a] fall [b] stay the same [c]
go on rising?'
- all government policy proposals that pass into force are supported by
a validated and publicly available SD model that demonstrates the
balanced solving of one or more objectives for the policy and the
avoidance of adverse unintended consequences
- system dynamics is an explicit, required component of degree courses
in X, Y, Z ... subjects
- sound system dynamics reasoning features in most refereed journal
articles in subjects X, Y, Z.

These illustrations largely cover, like Jack's suggestion, the
*capability* to deal with problems - can anyone offer examples of
objectives to have *actually solved* those problems?, e.g. 
- internationally-agreed policy will already be in place that has got
greenhouse gas levels [not emission rates] reducing by X% per year
- most adults can explain how the build-up of their retirement fund will
provide a comfortable life post-retirement
- economic plans for all nations will be delivering healthy economic
growth with no net environmental damage, because they are supported by
sound SD reasoning and analysis
- health policy has already succeeded in reversing the growth in numbers
of cases of diabetes internationally, in spite of greater longevity
- there has been no episode of collective corporate strategic
foolishness [as per the dot-com and sub-prime crashes of the 2000-2010
era] for the last 10 years, because corporate plans and reporting
demonstrate sound SD foundations for corporations' performance and
strategies.

Keep them coming please.

Kim Warren 
Posted by  "Kim Warren" <Kim at strategydynamics.com>
posting date  Thu, 10 Apr 2008 16:42:14 +0100