QUERY Modeling the growth of System Dynamics (SD6585)

[SDMAIL Jean-Jacques Laublé]

Posted by  Jean-Jacques Laublé <jean-jacques.lauble at wanadoo.fr>

Hi everybody

I have always wondered why the SD profession does not apply to its own case 
the method it advocates. 

There is a saying in French :

 'C'est toujours le chausseur qui est le plus mal chaussé.'

Translation : A shoemaker is rarely well-shod.


I have made two little models that test one of the hypotheses that could 
explain the slow growth of the field in the business world. 

I believe that the growth is partially driven by the percentage of people 
having tried the method and being satisfied with it. 

To have a high percentage it is preferable to discard the clients that 
may be interested but for many reasons have a low probability to become 
ever satisfied (called in the model false potential) and privilege the 
clients with high probability (called in the model true potential). 

There are two models: the first one starts for instance to-day and is 
called growth lasts 50 years and the second starts fifty years ago and 
lasts 100 years and is called growth2. 

In both models the policy variable is in green and is called 'policy about 
false potential' and can range from 1 that accepts all candidates with a 
low probability to be satisfied to 0 that accepts no candidates.  

They are posted at the Vensim forum. 

http://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/

system dynamics discussion. 

If the models are right it confirms the idea that promoting a policy that 
discard low probability satisfaction customers, generates a slow growth the 
first years and a stronger growth later on. 

I think that the SDS should try to build the same kind of model that would 
have two objectives. 

One obvious: finding better policies to encourage the method and the second: 

By making the modelling public, show how the method can be applied and gives 
concrete results. The modelling process could be made public and the 
participants of the mailing list or/and the SD members could openly 
participate and criticize the modelling process.

I built the two models in about an hour this morning and do not pretend to have 
made a serious work! It is just an example.

The model can too describe the growth of the different sectors of application 
(ecology, economy, etc.) 

Regards. 

Jean-Jacques Laublé. Eurli Allocar

Strasbourg. France.
Posted by  Jean-Jacques Laublé <jean-jacques.lauble at wanadoo.fr>
posting date  Thu, 6 Sep 2007 17:18:31 +0200