REPLY Getting a Good Problem Statement (SD6546)

[SDMAIL Jack Homer]

Posted by  "Jack Homer" <jhomer at comcast.net>

Richard Stevenson writes (SD6544):
"In a sense, this process summarises a paradox and an implicit 
problem of SD - despite considerable achievements in education 
and academia, it just cannot make a significant impact in the 
business world..I see lots of 'modellers' out there.  But sadly, 
I see very, very few competent, experienced SD practitioners."

Also, this past January, Richard posted "The Death of System Dynamics?" 
(SD6203), where he said:
(1) "I want to question the entire basis of the System Dynamics Society...
a self-serving and introspective club that resists change and is entirely 
blind to new opportunities and problems in the real corporate world";
(2) "the problem with SD today is its lack of business focus and a complete 
absence of self-discipline...in thre real, corporate world, SD's impact 
has been minimal compared to its potential - and far from getting stronger, 
it is in fact disappearing";
(3) [the SD forum] is completely random. Who's really in charge?"

Jay Forrester, in this summer's conference speech, "System Dynamics - the Next 
50 Years", described various laments that have appeared in the listserve 
discussion, and mentioned "The Death of System Dynamics?" one specifically.  
He said:
"Those of you who are doing good system dynamics work know that these messages 
of despair do not represent the field, but they stand on the record and mislead 
newcomers to the field. Such messages are going unchallenged by those of you 
who understand that they are not representative of the field."

Actually, the "Death of System Dynamics?" did NOT go unchallenged at the time, 
and Tom Fiddaman gave an especially forceful and eloquent response with point-
by-point commentary.  Nonetheless, Jay's general point is worth heeding.

I think it is fine that Richard speaks his mind forthrightfully, but I do think 
that maybe he is generalizing from his own experience, rather than drawing 
conclusions from broader evidence of how we as a field are actually doing.  From 
my own decades of experience in the field it seems to me that SD is doing pretty 
well and is having a significant impact on business and government.  Of course, 
that statement, like Richard's, is not based on a comprehensive review of the 
facts, but is rather just my own observation. My purpose here is simply to point 
out for those of you less familiar with system dynamics and its history that 
Richard's observations are opinions based on his own experience, and should not 
be taken as more than that.  I do not question that they are honest opinions, 
but I do question their generalizability.

- Jack Homer 
Posted by  "Jack Homer" <jhomer at comcast.net>
posting date  Fri, 31 Aug 2007 09:08:52 -0400