QUERY Modeling downstream effects (SD6663)

[SDMAIL Jim Thompson]

Posted by  "Jim Thompson" <james.thompson at strath.ac.uk>

>Dave Baker writes: I would like to use a model to help identify the ideal
>number of [non urgent surgery] cases to schedule on various days of the week
>to keep inflow smooth and relatively predictable for the unit staff. Any
>advice or examples that have dealt with similar issues?

Pidd, M. (2002) Tools for Thinking: Modelling in Management Science,
Chichester, John Wiley & Sons, includes a short case study of Lancaster
District Hospital (LDH) with a similar problem.  Pidd describes a small
model with equations that simulates a limit cycle like the one you describe.

I developed variations on Pidd's LDH theme in Vensim, including one in
dynamic equilibrium, that can be used to explore different 'management'
problems.  You're welcome to any of these; just email a request.

Note: It may be worthwhile to review what sorts of cases are feeding ICU,
who's doing the work, and what the recovery rates are in other hospitals.  

Jim Thompson
Posted by  "Jim Thompson" <james.thompson at strath.ac.uk>
posting date  Wed, 10 Oct 2007 13:41:58 -0400