REPLY Structural changes and validity (SD6660)

[SDMAIL Alan McLucas]

Posted by  "Alan McLucas" <A.McLucas at adfa.edu.au>

I agree that past social structures continue to evolve to become future
social structures, and it is challenging (practically impossible, I
suggest) to frame those structures in a forensic sense with the aim of
build models that we can then expect to validate.  However, we can still
learn about these changing structures and use that learning very
effectively to inform judgements about how we might intervene in
problematical situations.  Along the way the models we build are
transient objects to inform our learning.  The value of those models as
tools for learning is not lessened because they cannot be validated: no
body of social knowledge comparable to the accumulated knowledge of the
physical sciences has been produced - or probably ever will be.  So,
validation of our models against some "truth criterion" is never going
to be possible.  However, I can think of no better way to develop deep
understandings than through building a series of system dynamics models
designed to enable learning, even if all of those models are 'wrong'
insofar as that they can never be fully validated.  

We interact with real-world social structures, which present as a flux
of events of ideas unrolling through time: we cannot expect to discover
everything about those social structures all at once (if for no other
reason than they are both complex and capricious).  Pragmatically, we
might focus on characterizing those with a view to building better
understandings of them.  

Earlier experiences and interactions with those social structures
already would have led us to construct certain mental models of them.
We use these to help us interpret more recent experiences we might have,
as we have them.  In so doing, our norms and values are influenced.  We
continually analyse experiences and make new interpretations to build or
reframe our models.  These models might be either qualitative (our
personal constructs or mental models) or quantitative (system dynamics
models, for example).  These models, and related simulations, assist us
in designing our actions (intervention strategies).  Even as we
implement our strategies we can expect that social structures will be
changing, but assuming that our monitoring and (management and) control
processes are sensitive to those changes, we should appreciate that we
are now dealing with something which is an evolution of an old
structure.  We continually develop an understanding of how changes might
have occurred, formulating and testing our theories as we proceed.

To me this is a strong case for systems thinking and system dynamics
modelling, not an argument against.   

Dr Alan McLucas
School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering,
UNSW at ADFA,
Australian Defence Force Academy,
Northcott Drive,
CAMBPELL  ACT 2600
AUSTRALIA
Posted by  "Alan McLucas" <A.McLucas at adfa.edu.au>
posting date  Mon, 8 Oct 2007 16:24:51 +1000