REPLY Long term commodity dynamics (SD6487)

[SDMAIL John Morecroft]

Posted by  "John Morecroft" <jmorecroft at london.edu>

Marcus,

I missed the original message that prompted Douglas' reply.   There is a 
comprehensive treatment of commodity cycles in Chapter 20 of John Sterman's 
Business Dynamics.  
 
The oil industry model of mine that Douglas refers to will appear in full 
(with feedback loops, documented equations and interactive simulators) in 
Chapter 8 of my new book Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics which 
will be published in July by Wiley.  The model disaggregates oil producers 
into those that are commercially motivated (like Shell and ExxonMobil) and 
those that are politically motivated (OPEC).  When these disparate producers 
are connected to the global oil market a surprisingly wide range of oil 
price scenarios unfold.
 
Regards,   John  
 
John Morecroft
Adjunct Associate Professor
Management Science and Operations
London Business School
Posted by  "John Morecroft" <jmorecroft at london.edu>
posting date  Tue, 19 Jun 2007 14:42:29 +0100