REPLY The Death of System Dynamics? (SD6210)

[System Dynamics Mailing List]

Posted by  "John Gunkler" <jgunkler at sprintmail.com>

At the risk of leading with my chin, I must say that I am both in violent
agreement and in violent disagreement with what Richard Stevenson and Alan
McLucas write.

VIOLENT AGREEMENT:  To grow, our discipline must have discipline.  It is the
necessary next phase of our growth cycle -- where the first phase is pretty
chaotic (attempting, via "academic philosophical meandering" and other
means, to find "what works"), the second phase needs to be one of
standardization and refinement ("doing what works better and better.")  This
second phase derives its excitement from our exponentially increasing
success rather than from fresh discovery and creating something from
nothing.  The problem oh so typically is that people tend to get addicted to
what worked in an earlier phase and have difficulty making the phase change
needed to continue growth.  And perhaps it is unreasonable to expect people
who have a lifetime invested in the skills needed in an earlier phase to
give up what has led to their self fulfillment and start over, learning a
new set of skills and applying them to go forward.  So those of us who have
gotten us this far need, not to step aside (far from it), to encourage those
with the new skill sets to carry us all forward.  We need to provide the
grounding, and the reminders needed from time to time, to the next
generation -- we need to be the "keepers of the tradition" who fully
understand what it is we discovered that really "worked" and help the next
generation refine and improve it and not stray too far from the path.  Some
of us may even be able to learn and change enough to actually contribute to
the refinement and standardization, but not everyone should feel that they
must make this effort.

VIOLENT DISAGREEMENT:  I don't think it is going to be the expert modelers
presenting fully developed models who influence society (business,
government, education, etc.) to adopt a systems approach.  I think we have a
more effective, proven method right in front of us.  We need look no further
than to what Dana Meadows did so well (and damn the fates for taking her
from us too soon!)  For 15 years she wrote a weekly column that applied SD
concepts to concerns that affected her readers.  She focused on
sustainability issues and I believe her impact is felt throughout that
community today.  It is difficult for people researching sustainability to
ignore SD (though, of course, some still do).  I think some other brilliant
"expert modelers" could do a similar service in other areas -- the politics
of war, the growth or decline of western society in the face of Asian
ascendancy, the consequences of the overuse of fossil fuels, causes and
effects of global warming.  Whatever is in the headlines today could benefit
from a systems analysis -- and while I do believe it requires that people
with experience and expertise in modeling provide guidance, I don't believe
it requires that we create a detailed simulation model to generate insights
that will not be misleading. 

John Gunkler

For those who have forgotten what a voice Dana Meadows was, here is a small
excerpt that seems particularly apt:

"Just imagine what might have happened if the improvements in energy
efficiency the world has actually made in the past ten years -- the smaller
cars, better insulation, sensibly-planned industrial plants, energy-saving
appliances -- had come to pass twenty years earlier:

- The U.S. and Europe would not have been heavy oil importers in 1973, and
OPEC would not have had the market leverage to increase prices so suddenly
and greatly.

- There would not have been an enormous transfer of wealth to the Middle
East. The Mideast arms race and its spillover into terrorism would have been
vastly curtailed. The Iran/Iraq war might not have happened, and certainly
would not be fought with advanced weapons (such as Exocet missiles) bought
with oil profits."  [For the rest, go to
http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/dhm_archive/index.php?display_article=vn174lovinsed

Posted by  "John Gunkler" <jgunkler at sprintmail.com>
posting date  Wed, 24 Jan 2007 10:10:09 -0500