REPLY SD Impact on National Government Policies (SD6174)

[System Dynamics Mailing List]

Posted by  "eric wolstenholme" <eric.wolstenholme at symmetricsd.co.uk>

Jack's email on growth of the SD field as measured thought the performance
of the SD society, prompted this contribution to the debate on use (or
perceived lack of use) of SD in government policy making.

I would argue that using the society as an indicator is not representative
of the growth of the field. It might be the only quantification we have but
I perceive Jack's figures to be the tip of the iceberg, certainly in the UK.
There are many, many users of ST and SD who do not see the society as
relevant to their needs, since it does not have the status of an accredited
'chartered' body that is essential to practice.

What is perhaps a better indicator is how many people are in the pipeline
upstream of society members, in the states of 'awareness of SD', 'deliverers
of SD' and 'users of SD'. 

In the UK I would conservatively estimate that there are currently at least
10 consultancies actively using SD, each with a cumulative SD client base
over the past 5 years in the order of 5000. Also over the last 10 years
Universities and consultancies through both open and in-house courses have
trained around 5000 people directly in SD and exposed the thinking to many
more. I am not suggesting that all these people have copies of SD software
on their desks, but exposure to SD and strong word of mouth of the benefits
does go on.

It would be good to have these types of estimates from elsewhere.

Further, there is also a great deal going on in government use of SD in the
UK, both directly by civil servants and through consulting, much of which is
proving very influential. Despite our attempts in Symmetric, what gets
published is a very small part of the whole because there is not time to do
this given the demands for projects.

I feel the whole debate is similar to the one I have encountered often in
Operational Research. ST and SD are generic and will never have the pure
recognition some people seek. They are a way of thinking and a tool kit
subsumed in so many other disciplines that few will ever aspire to have the
words in their job title. And if they do they will be considered to be too
specifically focussed.

Best Wishes
Eric

--------------------------------------
Professor Eric Wolstenholme
Director
Symmetric SD Ltd 
Posted by  "eric wolstenholme" <eric.wolstenholme at symmetricsd.co.uk>
posting date  Wed, 10 Jan 2007 14:03:04 -0000