REPLY SD Impact on National Government Policies (SD6128)

[Jay W. Forrester jforestr MIT.EDU]

Posted by  "Jay W. Forrester" <jforestr at MIT.EDU>
There have been several recent messages lamenting the lack of government 
interest in system dynamics.  The discussions seem to expect that we 
should engage "policy makers."

I believe that those in government are not the proper target. Instead we 
should be addressing the public with clarifying insights about the major 
problems of a country.  Those in government need a supporting public.  
This is especially true because the results of a penetrating system 
dynamics study will usually show that popular policies are the source of 
the problem and that the solutions lie in directly the opposite direction 
from what the public expects.  Under those circumstances, no so-called 
"policy maker" can move in the opposite direction from that expected by 
the individual's constituents.

The field needs a series of penetrating, provocative, insightful books that 
address uppermost issues of public concern.  These books must be addressed 
to the public and have the clarity and content that will attract newspaper 
debate (or these days it may be Internet debate).  I believe that journal 
articles in the professional press will not reach the appropriate audiences.

To illustrate, let me recall some of the reactions to the books, "World 
Dynamics" and "Urban Dynamics."  Both books became subjects for discussion 
in such forums as the League of Women Voters and parent-teacher groups.

A member of the House of Representatives from Iowa told me he decided to run 
for Congress because of "World Dynamics."  He established in each precinct 
of his district a man and wife team to convene discussion groups about the 
future.  Unfortunately he developed Lyme disease and resigned from Congress 
soon after.  "World Dynamics" and the successor book, "Limits to Growth," led 
to Congressional hearings on growth.

"Urban Dynamics" attracted sufficient attention in Congress that several 
members of the House and the Senate wrote a joint letter to the Executive 
Department requesting that further modeling be supported.

So far as I know, the system dynamics field has not produced successor books 
about major political issues that have had a similar public impact.   Perhaps 
the system dynamics field is focusing too much on itself and its academic 
audience and not enough on public issues for the public.

The lack of public issue books is not because there have been no important 
subjects for such books.  The headlines and the political debates reveal many 
possible topics.

In the United States, Social Security and Social Security reform have been a 
subject of perennial political debate with little light shed on the subject.  
It justifies a book to establish the basis for public debate.  For example, we 
had presidential candidates promising to put a "lock box" around the Social 
Security surplus, oblivious to the fact the the "box" contains only government
bonds that, when liquidated, require new borrowing.  The lock box idea seems to 
have been accepted like the fable of the emperor without clothes.  There is much 
to reveal and to clarify.

Likewise, government debt, its future, its effect on unequal income distribution, 
its effect on future standard of living, and its making the US vulnerable to the 
decisions of other countries could be a book in the center of political debate.

Another hot topic would be imbalance in foreign trade.

Another is the effect of outsourcing production to low-wage countries and the 
future effect on welfare, living standards, and political unrest.

As has already been pointed out in the emails, there is much system dynamics 
activity that for various reasons remains hidden.  Often, unlike those in academia, 
those doing the interesting system dynamics work in business and government do not 
have incentives to publish. Often the work carries government or corporate secrecy 
classification.  Several years ago I was invited to lunch by a system dynamicist 
in a large European company.  As we sat down in the executive dining room, my host 
said, "I am sorry, but I can not tell you anything about our system dynamics work.  
We can go to professional meetings and discuss anything we are doing in operations 
research or economics, but are not allowed to even say that we are interested in 
system dynamics."  On a less restricted basis, several years ago, and I know nothing 
of the present, the Central Intelligence Agency taught internal courses in system 
dynamics and had both classified and unclassified system dynamics models of the 
economic, social, and political dynamics of various countries.  When I was asked to 
address the staff of the CIA, the lecture was attended by some 400 people from the 
director on down.

As others have said, our problem is the shortage of very advanced and skilled 
practitioners of system dynamics who are willing to carry system dynamics into the 
public policy debate, not among "policy makers," but into the general public from 
which it will seep into governments.

-- 
---------------------------------------------------------
Jay W. Forrester
Professor of Management
Sloan School
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Room E60-156
Cambridge, MA  02139 
Posted by  "Jay W. Forrester" <jforestr at MIT.EDU>
posting date  Tue, 2 Jan 2007 21:43:20 -0500