REPLY SD Impact on National Government Policies (SD6130)

[John W. Gunkler jwgunkler hpvs.net]

Posted by  "John W. Gunkler" <jwgunkler at hpvs.net>
Both Jack Homer and Steve Roderic have given me some hope about the
diffusion of SD and, perhaps, some insight into how we may hasten that
diffusion.

I agree that system dynamics modeling is "hard" -- but how hard must it be
to diffuse the concepts, mental models, and habits of mind of SD (or
"systems thinking" if you prefer) if teachers are successfully doing so with
third-grade students?  If Steve Roderic is succeeding with inattentive,
hormone-raging high school students, cannot we succeed with others?

There have been many discussions, on this list and elsewhere, about what it
takes to "do" SD.  I side with Jay Forrester and many others who have said
that it takes simulation modeling ... but is "doing" SD what we want policy
makers to do?

We all can agree, I think, that it's a fool's errand to try to teach every
important decision maker, in the various spheres of life, to be able to
create SD simulations.  And that's the part that's "hard."  So, what is it
we're trying to do?  Let me suggest (at minimum):

1.  Convince decision makers (in government, education, business,
environment, etc.) of the unique benefits of SD modeling (assuming that we
can clearly articulate what those benefits are!)

2.  Provide such decision makers easy access to SD practitioners who, for
reasonable fees, can build SD models.  [Warning:  Pet peeve coming here.  If
we "cannot" build a useful model, or at least useful initial models, for
less than $1MM, we are doomed to fail.  We need to hone our modeling skills
to the point where we can create useful initial models at price points our
clients are accustomed to pay for consulting help.  I strongly believe that
models built in a couple of hours -- such as the ones that Barry Richmond
used to create for his "Story of the Month" -- can be very useful in helping
people think about tough problems and gain insight into new ways of dealing
with them.  Such models may, or may not, lead to the creation of more
elaborate SD models -- and I believe that's just fine.]

3.  Then, teach these decision makers to interpret and understand SD
modeling results well enough to be able to use such results in their
decision making.

Of these, the hardest to do is the first -- and we have been trying to do
it, with some success, for awhile.  But what if we coupled our efforts with
the second -- what if we walked into every tough decision situation (where
we had an interest) with a simple "Story of the Month" model in hand, and
helped people understand the systems at work?  How far could we get if we
did that?

 

John

John W. Gunkler, President, HPVS
Posted by  "John W. Gunkler" <jwgunkler at hpvs.net>
posting date  Tue, 2 Jan 2007 10:14:15 -0500