REPLY SD Impact on National Goverment policies (SD6121)

[Jack Homer jhomer comcast.net]

Posted by  "Jack Homer" <jhomer at comcast.net>
Louis Macovsky's frustration at SD not penetrating further into the US 
government is similar to what we have heard on this listserve and at 
various conferences and informal chats over the years about what seems 
to be inadequate diffusion of SD in many spheres of life, be they business, 
education, personal, or public.  Before continuing this lament further, let 
us first check whether our expectations are appropriate.  Let's start by 
acknowledging that the number of SD practitioners is small.  The numbers of 
expert practitioners in most advanced modeling fields are also small, so we 
are not alone in that respect.  Unlike advanced modeling methods, simpler 
techniques such as statistical analysis, business accounting, straight-line 
forecasting, scenario writing, and role-playing exercises are fairly easily 
applied by non-experts and are easy to communicate to laypeople.  And so, 
those easier methods are the ones that tend to be used.

At an ISDC many years ago, during a panel discussion on Growth of the Field, 
Jorgen Randers famously said, "System Dynamics is hard."  Given the difficulty 
of our methodology and the accordingly small number of expert practitioners, I 
think we have done rather well in getting SD accepted and used in business and 
government.  For that success we have many stellar people in the field to thank, 
who have been masters not only of analysis but also of communication.

In describing the situation, we should also distinguish between SD modeling and 
systems thinking more broadly.  Prominent thinkers throughout the ages, and especially 
in this past century, have written about the unintended consequences of public and 
private decisions, and have urged a more whole-systems and long-term perspective for 
more effective decision-making. I would say that the essential notions of systems 
thinking are actually quite prevalent in the public sphere. We hear such notions arise 
whenever somebody pleads for a larger view that goes beyond short-term personal gain, 
and is able to trace out at least some of what that larger view would comprise.

Louis is understandably frustrated with U.S. domestic and foreign policy. But he is not 
alone, and we in SD are not alone.  In the last several years, thousands of scientists 
have signed petitions and protested the misuse and abandonment of science in public 
decision-making.  I think it would be helpful if we saw ourselves as not alone in our 
efforts to get people to think more wisely and systemically, but rather as part of a 
large chorus of rational voices working toward that end.  There has been progress, and 
there have been setbacks, and all we and other concerned scientists and citizens can do 
is to keep working hard and looking for the best opportunities to make a real difference.

Jack Homer
Posted by  "Jack Homer" <jhomer at comcast.net>
posting date  Sun, 31 Dec 2006 12:16:02 -0500