REPLY Future Development Directions (SD6257)

[System Dynamics Mailing List]

Posted by  Bob Eberlein <bob at vensim.com>

Thanks Monte for pointing out the importance of reproducibility. The 
notion that two people faced with the same problem would create the 
same model and come to the same conclusion is, however, much stronger 
than that. An experiemnt is reproducible if other people can repeat it 
and (usually) get the same results. Reproducibility does not really 
apply to theories, except to the extent that logic or mathematics of 
the theory should be clear and verifiable. Most modeling excercises 
are more like thoeries than experiements, what needs to be reproducible
are the model results. That may seem trivial, but suprisingly many 
published results based on computation are not. 


Thanks Alex, for taking a more cynical view of management than even I 
do. I may have underestimated just how many people would disagree with 
my assertion that accounting is part of the science of business.

And thanks Richard for starting this whole line of discussion. I 
absolutely love your quotes - to me they prove what an optimistic bunch 
we are (or at least Jay and Kim are). The good stuff is always just 
around the corner it seems.

I did not intend to denigrate the work in management science, just claim 
that little, if any, of it makes its way to the real decision making. I 
personally have not spent much time in board rooms, but I know many who 
have and your description is contrary to all the descriptions I have heard. 
If you have found a board that uses fact based management and invests and
manages accordingly then stick with them - they will be running the world 
in a decade or two.

As far as the field of strategy goes, this is something I would love to hear 
Kim Warren's comments on. I personally have never been able to see past the 
magic that the big guns bring to the game.

And finally, you have diagnosed me as having Jay-itis - well I can think of 
lots worse maladies. Still, it is not an appropriate characterization of the 
people active in the field, or posting to this list. Nor is it true that there 
is a failure to recognize work originiating from outside a small circle. Lots 
of people have worked very hard within the Society, and the field in general, 
to increase interaction with people from other geographies and backgrounds.

Bob Eberlein
Posted by  Bob Eberlein <bob at vensim.com>
posting date  Sun, 11 Feb 2007 19:19:08 -0500