REPLY Policy paradox and SD (SD6702)

Tue Dec 18 05:39:39 CST 2007

Posted by  "E.Rouwette" <E.Rouwette at fm.ru.nl>

I think George gives a very nice overview of the areas of research on group 
modelling. In my PhD research I tried to understand the "implementation issue" 
better. To do that, I first looked at published case reports of group model 
building interventions. It turned out that a wide variety of techniques and 
methods were used in the process of modelling and engaging the group. In 
describing the results of the interventions there were more commonalities and 
terms such as learning/ mental model change, consensus, commitment and 
implementation were frequently used.

I then tried to find out about the relations between process elements and 
various outcomes. Since my background is in psychology I selected theories from 
that field (but there are undoubtedly many other approaches one could take 
here). A theory by Ajzen explains behavior and commitment on the basis of 1. 
attitude, 2. perceptions of norms and 3. perceptions of control. I assumed there 
concepts are influenced in modelling sessions. When for example simulating a 
model reveals unexpected levers for improving system behavior, it seems that 
perceived control would increase. Another example: a participant in group 
modelling reveals positive outcomes of a certain policy option. If these 
positive outcomes were previously not known to me, hearing them might make my 
attitude towards that option more positive. To understand how the group process 
changes attitude, perceptions of norms and perceptions of control, I used a 
theory on persuasion by Petty and Cacioppo.

I tested these ideas in five modelling projects in my dissertation and again in 
two others after that. Experimental control is low in this type of research so 
the results should be interpreted with caution. The outcome however was that 
there were many instances in which change in commitment occurred during the 
modelling project, and this change could be traced back to changes in the 
variables in the Ajzen model, and those in turn again to information exchanged 
in the sessions. Again, this is really not the definite test of these ideas but 
it does look promising as a start. An unexpected result was that in many cases 
participants initially did not recognize their own learning. In other words: 
when asked afterwards "Have you learned anything from these sessions?" they 
would say "no". But their pretest and posttest of attitudes etc. did show 
differences. When shown these differences, some respondents answered "Oh yes, I 
did change my opinion and yes, I do think what happened in the modelling 
sessions might be the cause of that". I was surprised about this and if this was 
an isolated result, I would tend not to attach too much importance to it. 
However, there are many studies in psychology that show 1. people do not have 
insight into whether or not they have learned and 2. if they have learned, 
people have even less insight into what triggered their learning.

Sorry about this long mail. Here are some references on the above:

A review of 107 group model building cases: Rouwette E.A.J.A, Vennix J.A.M., 
Mullekom T. van. (2002). Group model building effectiveness: a review of 
assessment studies. /System Dynamics Review/ 18(1): 5-45.

The conceptual model on impacts of group modelling (and the relation to Ajzen 
and Petty and Cacioppo): /Process and outcomes of modeling: an attempt at 
formulating a conceptual framework. /E. Rouwette, J. Vennix. In R.L. Eberlein, 
V.G. Diker, R.S. Langer, J.I. Rowe (Eds.) Proceedings System Dynamics 
Conference, New York, 2003, cd-rom: 1-24.
http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2003/proceed/PAPERS/340.pdf

On implicit learning and decision making, and verbal reports of learning (this 
is fascinating stuff by the way!):

NISBETT RE, WILSON TD 

TELLING 
http://apps.isiknowledge.com:80/WoS/CIW.cgi?SID=W18BDM@@8@hAbHOFABe&Func=Abstract&doc=9/3

MORE THAN WE CAN *KNOW* - *VERBAL* *REPORTS* ON *MENTAL* PROCESSES 
http://apps.isiknowledge.com:80/WoS/CIW.cgi?SID=W18BDM@@8@hAbHOFABe&Func=Abstract&doc=9/3

PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW 84 (3): 231-259 1977
http://apps.isiknowledge.com:80/WoS/CIW.cgi?SID=W18BDM@@8@hAbHOFABe&Func=DispCitingRec&doc=9/3&isickref=31698842&&pre_set_doc=9/3

Wilson TD. 2002. "Strangers to ourselves. Discovering the adaptive 
unconsciousness". Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Thanks,

Etienne Rouwette
Posted by  "E.Rouwette" <E.Rouwette at fm.ru.nl>
posting date  Mon, 17 Dec 2007 13:52:14 +0100