REPLY Policy paradox and SD (SD6680)

[SDMAIL Bob Eberlein]

Posted by  Bob Eberlein <bob at vensim.com>

What Monte described strikes me not so much as a policy paradox as an 
implementation dilemma. It is definitively not unique to System Dynamics 
or even to the social systems. For example, we can make a pendulum swing 
more quickly by increasing gravity. For a physical system the labeling of 
which policy interventions might and might not be implementable is much 
easier to accomplish, but it still has to be done.

Some time ago in looking at macroeconomic policy I came to the conclusion, 
which I believe is still valid, that the only outcome that a government 
can consistently achieve with a well defined intervention is hyperinflation. 
That does not, of course, mean that governments stop trying to intervene. 
Such intervention is ever present, and leads to results that sometimes seem 
good, and sometimes seem bad.

The challenge, of course, is to find concrete actions that people are 
willing to take that move toward a desired outcome. If people are unwilling 
to change behavior than other action such as the development of incentive 
structures, a policy of education, or forced compliance can be used.

I don't think anyone expects this to be easy. But we are are better off if
 we can understand how changes will impact the overall behavior we are 
 interested in. So, regardless of how hard it might be to implement a policy, 
 we want to know if the policy will actually result in the asserted outcome. 
 The only way to be confident in that is to have a model that stands up to 
 rigorous scientific scrutiny.

Bob Eberlein 
Posted by  Bob Eberlein <bob at vensim.com>
posting date  Mon, 10 Dec 2007 08:02:33 -0500