REPLY Getting a Good Problem Statement (SD6534)

[SDMAIL Bill Harris]

Posted by  Bill Harris <bill_harris at facilitatedsystems.com>

"SDMAIL Jean-Jacques Laublé" <jean-jacques.lauble at wanadoo.fr> writes:
>> Sounds good too. But is group modelling enough to avoid the risk of
>> loosing the support of people who control the resources or fail to be
>> implemented?
>>
>> I think that following strictly what is exposed in the first paragraph
>> seems enough as it necessitates group modelling or at least group
>> participation and if the modelling is a step by step process, where
>> people having the understanding and the capacity are taken into
>> consideration, it cannot fail.


Jean-Jacques,

You probably know it and act as if you do, as well, but there's
something implicit in your statements I've quoted above that seem
important to highlight.  Absent (possibly physical) coercion, we can't
guarantee support and implementation.  Absent perfect wisdom, we can't
guarantee a lack of failure.

All we can really control or change is ourselves.  What we can do
includes initiating group modeling and other actions which have been
shown to improve the odds of support and reviewing past actions for
potential causes of a lack of support, but others still have the freedom
to do something differently than we would like.  (That's not to excuse
our responsibility if we purposefully or ignorantly choose ill-advised
actions, of course.)

As I noted, I'm sure you recognize that, but I thought it important to
make it explicit.  

Just a thought.  Others?

>> Should one thrive for a complete model before trying to apply the
>> policies, the first solution, or should one start with a simple model
>> first that will be eventually easier to understand and to implement,
>> implement it, take actions with the proposed policies, and after
>> having learned from that experience, eventually broaden the scope as
>> you mentioned, and build a second model, with the same scenario than
>> the first step?  If the two options seem possible, what are the
>> reasons to choose between them.  When reading the first paragraph, it
>> is the second solution that should be favored.


You ask important questions in your email.  


>> This question is important for me, because some authors like Sterman
>> writes about a step by step process, starting relatively quickly with
>> a small quantitative model, like in the Vensim modelling guide but
>> what is really in the steps is not clearly mentioned.


Starting small is often a good heuristic, I think.


>> Does one has to use concretely the model after each step, implementing
>> the solution even if it is far from perfect and incomplete, and learn
>> from that experience before going to the next step, or build a model
>> step by step, testing it progressively but waiting until it is
>> finished to implement the policies?


I think the answer is likely the classic "It depends."  In some cases,
the insights may be clear enough or the risks low enough to implement a
solution based on a partial model.  It may be that the initial model
leads naturally into an action research phase where experimentation in
the real world, not on a model, makes the most sense, at least as a next
step or perhaps in parallel with more model development.  It may even be
that an initial SD model suggests a next step which doesn't directly
involve SD.

In other cases, it's clear that the initial modeling attempts have only
begun to illuminate reasonable answers, and a prudent person will dig
deeper using iteratively enhanced models to gain more insights before
implementing the policies.  

While some of the reasons to select one or the other course can be set
down, others are probably mostly part of the tacit knowledge each of us
has developed over the years.  The goal, I would claim, is actionable,
supportable insight, not SD modeling excellence.

Thoughts?

Bill
- -- 
Bill Harris                      http://facilitatedsystems.com/weblog/
Facilitated Systems                              Everett, WA 98208 USA
Posted by  Bill Harris <bill_harris at facilitatedsystems.com>
posting date  Wed, 29 Aug 2007 08:12:26 -0700