REPLY High-Tech Company Dynamics (SD6094)

[Thompson James. P (Jim) S208 Jim.Thompson CIGNA.COM]

Posted by  Thompson, James. P (Jim)      S208 <Jim.Thompson at CIGNA.COM>
David Corben wrote, "At any point in the last 300 years if you built a
model of sustainability, based upon the information available at the
time that looked say 50 - 100 years ahead, then it would inevitably
predict that economic and industrial growth was unsustainable in the
long term. It is a good thing that system dynamics never existed at the
start of the industrial revolution otherwise it would never have
happened and we would all still be farm labourers!"  

His observation seems to assume that SD would have been very poorly
practiced and quite influential in setting policy for the world in the
18th century.  Inappropriate use of SD or any other policy assessment
methodology is likely to lead to bad decisions.  

Jay Forrester, for an example of one who advocates appropriate policy
assessment, noted that there is no news from the future and that
prediction is a very risky business to be practiced with care.  As I
read his most prominent SD works -- Industrial Dynamics, Urban Dynamics,
and World Dynamics -- I can't find any statements of how a firm, city or
planet will be in the future, only assessments of policies that are likely 
to cause problems and of policies that are likely to be more robust, given
what we know at the time.

As practitioners and researchers who employ SD for thinking about
managing change have demonstrated in hundreds of published experiences,
it is possible to develop policies that are robust under wide-ranging
conditions, given what is knowable.  No one has found a way to violate
laws of physics such as entropy so, at least for now, the best we can do
is understand the system dynamics and take informed decisions.

In my imagination, I can conjure how SD practiced in 1706 might have led
to better managed companies, cities designed to accommodate changing
needs of residents and visitors, and a world less inclined to pickle in
its own waste.  But since we can't change the past, I practice SD to
improve our prospects, given what we know now.

Jim Thompson
Clinical Insights Economic & Operations Research
Cigna HealthCare
900 Cottage Grove Road, A142
Hartford, CT 06152
Posted by  Thompson, James. P (Jim)      S208 <Jim.Thompson at CIGNA.COM>
posting date  Wed, 6 Dec 2006 16:41:54 -0500